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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

1/ “We have 110% of our energy needs already met by renewables.” “Scotland has the highest sources of renewable energies in Europe.” No surprise to discover that two newly elected Scottish Green MSPs fully believe in debunked myths about energy in Scotland.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

John Swinney’s pledge on energy bills at this election is simply fraudulent. He knows that it won’t be properly scrutinised. And he doesn’t care that it’s undeliverable. But voters should care about a candidate for First Minister who doesn’t tell the truth.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

1/ This line, that because a Chinese company has a minority stake in Hinkley Point C, the UK Labour government must be “anti-Scottish” to have blocked the Ming Yang wind turbine factory, on national security grounds, is very easily debunked.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 12/04/2026

Scotland’s energy wealth is being “siphoned off” by Westminster, says John Swinney. Populist bullshit of the highest order. #bbcdn

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

How to demonstrate that the SNP is not telling the truth about energy bills and Scotland’s “low-cost” renewables. A step-by-step guide.

these-islands.co.uk

How to interrogate SNP energy bills claim

How to demonstrate that the SNP is not telling the truth about energy bills and Scotland’s “low-cost” renewables. A step-by-step guide.

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Duncan Hothersall @dhothersall.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

This is really important. The SNP, and many supporters of independence, keep making the argument that Scotland's renewables would bring down the price of electricity in an independent Scotland, and imply that the current system is unfair to Scots. This analysis blows that argument out of the water.

these-islands.co.uk

How to interrogate SNP energy bills claim

How to demonstrate that the SNP is not telling the truth about energy bills and Scotland’s “low-cost” renewables. A step-by-step guide.

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These Islands @theseislands.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

The SNP is making an eye-catching claim at this election: “Independence would cut energy bills in Scotland by more than a third.” These Islands has published a short, step-by-step guide, demonstrating how this claim simply cannot be true.

these-islands.co.uk

How to interrogate SNP energy bills claim

How to demonstrate that the SNP is not telling the truth about energy bills and Scotland’s “low-cost” renewables. A step-by-step guide.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

1/ Pressed for details on his energy rhetoric by @kieranandrews.bsky.social, John Swinney has nothing but glib soundbites. Does he know how to calculate the impact of the gas price on the price of electricity? It’s not difficult…

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Gillian Martin said she’d get back to me on how the “third off electricity bills with independence” claim is consistent with the actual costs of Scottish offshore wind (see quoted post). When I chased this up, her officials fobbed me off. The answer is *not* in the SNP paper.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

John Swinney blames “hyperinflation” for the SNP’s failure to keep its 2021 promise to freeze income tax rates and bands. John Swinney obviously doesn’t know what hyperinflation means.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

Warren Mosler (who was in Edinburgh to talk MMT) says that Liz Truss could have got away with the mini-budget if only she had monetised the national debt.

The Sunday National: The Liz Truss-led Conservative government in the UK in 2022 lasted for just 49 days. The narrative about why her government fell apart is because it announced a big plan to increase the deficit, the so-called
"bond vigilantes" responded negatively, there was a run on the pound and the Bank of England had to step in to stop big UK pension funds from collapsing. What would be your response to that?
Mosler: "Truss's government could have controlled that situation very easily. A piece of cake. If the Treasury had stopped issuing any more bonds that would have been fine, because the government isn't depending on the bond markets for funding: remember, they are spending first. The other thing the Treasury could have done is buy their own bonds back.
"The problem is that Truss didn't understand monetary operations. You need people in power who understand how monetary and fiscal policy actually works, but none of the politicians do."

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 22/03/2026

1/ Pro-independence organisation submits an FOI request to Scot Gov about bonds plan. Civil servants offer to meet with them because the cost limit exemption is likely to apply. So… I asked for a meeting about the same subject, with the same civil servants… and was rebuffed. 🤔

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

Shona Robison explains why John Swinney’s big policy announcement today is a bad idea and an inappropriate way to spend public money.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 14/03/2026

1/ Inconvenient. The SNP piloted a very similar policy in 2019-2021 (the First Home Fund). The evaluation report concluded that it didn’t work: “marginal first-time buyers struggling to access home ownership do not form the majority of FHF buyers.”

The finding that rate of additionality is less than a third is supported by other evidence. That average income, LTV and LTI ratios of FHF buyers are similar to those of the average first-time buyer across Scotland, and the average price of a property purchased through the FHF is greater than the average price of a property purchased by all first-time buyers across Scotland, suggests that marginal first-time buyers struggling to access home ownership do not form the majority of FHF buyers. This is consistent with the finding that a majority (63.9%) of FHF buyers reported that the scheme had enabled them to buy a larger property, and that a majority (58.1%) also reported that the scheme had enabled them to use less of their savings for their deposit.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 07/03/2026

Scot Gov yesterday snuck out a “written authority” for the purchase of Ardrossan Harbour. This is an exchange of letters in which a senior civil servant states that an action cannot be justified on value for money grounds, and a Scot Gov minister directs them to proceed anyway.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28/02/2026

Bracingly accurate stuff, understood by hardly anyone in Scottish politics. (And by absolutely nobody in the SNP or Scottish Greens).

Wind and solar are important sources of power and the latter in particular may yet prove transformational. But they are not a vehicle for Scottish or even British enrichment for the very simple and persuasive reason that renewable energy may be sourced from anywhere. Oil is valuable because it is rare; sun and wind are useful precisely because they are not.
That helps explains why the claims made by Alex Salmond and Boris Johnson that Scotland and Britain could be "the Saudi Arabia of renewables" were just hot air.
Renewable energy is a low return on capital sector and also, still, an expensive one.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Typically wrongheaded analysis from Common Weal. It is because renewable resources are unlimited, and everyone has them, that they are *less* valuable to Scotland’s economy than oil and gas were.

We see here that Scotland is in the process of losing out once again when it comes to energy resources that, if anything, vastly outstrip anything the oil sector could have ever promised because, unlike oil, the sun and the wind will continue to deliver that energy long after the last barrel of oil is extracted from the ground.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Brilliant news. I was worried that @scotnational.bsky.social might abandon its annual McCrone Day/Week jamboree after the mythology was well and truly debunked. But I shouldn’t have doubted them. Facts be damned, they will plough on regardless.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Challenged with real-world evidence of the true cost of Scottish renewables, Gillian Martin responds by witlessly reciting the “low-cost renewables” mantra. There is no evidence to support this claim, because it simply isn’t true.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

Rare moment of genuine drama at FMQs as Anas Sarwar produces evidence which undermines John Swinney’s evasions on the QEUH scandal.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 29/01/2026

1/🚨The Scottish Government *paid* for the credit ratings obtained last year from Moody’s and S&P. But we are not allowed to know how much it paid, because “disclosure may affect the commercial interests of Moody's and S&P”.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

🚨 This is scandalous. £7 million of public money to pay bankers and lawyers for a bond sale which is simply a nationalist publicity stunt. The Scottish Government could borrow at a lower interest rate from the UK Government, and avoid these fees altogether. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The expected contract value for banks selected to assist Scotland "in accessing the
sterling public bond market" is £5 million ($6.9 million), according to a tender published by the Scottish government on Wednesday. The equivalent figure for a legal advisor is £1.8 million, according to a
separate notice.

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Hugh Pumphrey @hughpumphrey.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

This. And it would do the pro-Indy lobby good if they were to make the effort to understand these issues properly and to stop misleading the public on the issue. ("Ewwww, Taylor, he's a yoooooon" is not a good reason for not trying to understand renewables.)

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Hugh Pumphrey @hughpumphrey.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

This is the sort of thing that can happen when any party spends too long in power: the boundary between party and government (never 100% sharp, I suspect) becomes far too blurred.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

Glib assertions about Scotland having won the energy lottery twice over - first with oil and now with renewables - are not just false. They are actively harmful.

The politics of net zero will be pivotal to Scotland's economic performance over the next five years.
If the government is to play a helpful role, politicians (from all parties) must learn how to think about return on capital - perhaps the most important but least understood concept in the politics of energy in Scotland.
We are moving from high return on capital businesses - oil and gas - to low return on capital businesses - renewables. The energy transition, and Scotland's opportunities on that journey, cannot be properly understood without grasping the significance of this point. Glib assertions about Scotland having won the energy lottery twice over - first with oil and now with renewables - are not just false. They are actively harmful.
Renewables are a good thing, but they are not a lottery-style windfall. The sooner politicians appreciate this, the better our chances of achieving the fabled just transition.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

1/ Short 🧵 on how the civil service in Scotland has been corrupted by Scottish nationalism. Last August, Scot Gov published a news release alongside the GERS figures which was so misleading, the Director of @fraserofallander.org called it “egregious” and “out of order”.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

The SNP will activate the usual grievances here, but they need to explain this: someone has to pay for the additional grid necessary to make wind farms in Scotland viable. If the SNP want generators to pay less, who do they want to pay more?

bbc.com

Plans for huge wind farm paused over 'unfair' grid charges - BBC News

A developer warns that a development will not be built unless "unfair" transmission charges are overhauled.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 19/01/2026

The civil servants in the Constitutional Futures Division spent three years working on independence papers, and never made any attempt to estimate the impact of independence on energy bills in Scotland. The reason is obvious: they knew the answer would be inconvenient.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

2/ For about the millionth time: renewables are a low return on capital business. The energy transition, and Scotland’s opportunity on that journey, cannot be understood without fully grasping the significance of this point.

these-islands.co.uk

Infinite and Everywhere

The journey to net zero means leaving behind the fossil fuel era, and moving towards a world which will power itself by capturing energy from super-abundant resources. This has profoundly important co...

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

1/ RWE was the big winner in the AR7 auction, but what did it win? The right to build assets yielding an (unlevered) return on capital of 8.2%. By funding 80% of the projects with debt costing 6.5%, RWE should be able to squeeze out an equity IRR of 12.5%.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

This thread is full of useful details, not least that Dan, a member of Scot Gov’s own Tax Advisory Group, has joined the chorus of significant voices who judge the notorious taxpayers claim to have been false in recent years.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Good piece on yesterday’s AR7 auction.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

In the context of yesterday’s AR7 auction result, in which both Scottish projects cleared at prices above the current wholesale price of electricity, this is blatantly untruthful. But nothing will be done about these repeated misleading statements in parliament.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 14/01/2026

Listen to Gillian Martin’s response when asked to explain how the SNP’s “third off electricity bills with independence” claim is consistent with the actual costs of Scottish offshore wind. “That’s a dissertation question. I’ll need to get back to you on that.”

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John Ferry @johnferry.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Sam Taylor clearly explaining how the SNP is misleading Scottish voters on income tax. Important, necessary work in the age of populists👇

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These Islands @theseislands.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Last week, the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute made a significant intervention on a notorious claim about income tax in Scotland. Has the SNP’s statistical chicanery finally run out of road?

these-islands.co.uk

The Tipping Point

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

1/ To understand why John Swinney is so reluctant to admit the notorious taxpayers claim has been false for the last two years, you have to go back to its inception. Watch how delirious the SNP benches were about a boast worth just £20 a year to those who benefited.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Having submitted numerous FOIs asking Scot Gov for information which substantiates claims made in a political context, I have never before received such an emphatic “nothing to do with us” response. But the energy bills claim is unusually dishonest, even by SNP standards.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

John Swinney clings to the dodgy taxpayers claim at FMQs by citing forecasts for 2025-26. He ignores the inconvenient fact that the forecasts have a track record of being wrong - the claim turned out to be false in the last two financial years.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 08/01/2026

Yesterday in parliament @michaeljmarra.bsky.social quoted Mairi Spowage of @fraserofallander.org on the notorious taxpayers claim. No intervention from the SNP benches disputing the point. They are knowingly misleading parliament and the public when repeating the claim.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Longer clip here. Perhaps now this story will get the attention it deserves? John Swinney and Shona Robison have repeatedly misled parliament on this issue, and have refused to correct the Official Report. A familiar story, of course.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Jamie Hepburn today repeated the false claim that more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK. Douglas Ross used a Point of Order to highlight what @fraserofallander.org has said about this, but Hepburn declined to make a correction.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

This is significant. Mairi Spowage of @fraserofallander.org has spoken to BBC More Or Less about Scot Gov’s “more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in UK” claim. Mairi is quite clear: the claim has been false for the last two financial years.

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These Islands @theseislands.bsky.social · 21/12/2025

Scotland’s net zero opportunities depend entirely on mechanisms which defray costs across a population of 70 million. The idea that Scotland could achieve an advantage by standing alone, with a population of only 5 million, is unserious and dishonest.

these-islands.co.uk

Energy bills: SNP not telling the truth

Scotland’s net zero opportunities depend entirely on subsidy and revenue stabilisation mechanisms made possible because costs can be defrayed across a population of 70 million. The idea that Scotland ...

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Alex Gallagher @alexgallagher.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

This is brilliant from Sam Taylor. And brutal for @snp.org

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

The Scottish Government’s independence papers were shot through with highly tendentious material, but the civil servants who produced them must have drawn the line at a whole-cloth fabrication. Because that is what the SNP’s third off energy bills claim is.

In last year’s Allocation Round 6, Scotland’s first commercial scale floating offshore wind farm - Green Volt - secured a CfD (Contract for Difference) at £202/MWh (in today’s money).

That’s more than double the wholesale electricity price of £83/MWh in the current Ofgem price cap, and about 60% more expensive than the electricity which Hinkley Point C will produce.

£202/MWh, which will be uplifted for inflation each year, is the guaranteed price for output the developers required before they would commit to spending the roughly £2.5 billion it will cost to construct the wind farm.

Projects of this nature depend entirely on subsidy and revenue stabilisation mechanisms made possible because costs can be defrayed across a population of 70 million.

Independence would take Scotland outside of these mechanisms.

How do we know this? Because the SNP has now told us. Its energy paper says that consumers in an independent Scotland would no longer contribute to the costs of nuclear plants in England and Wales.

Well fine. But that obviously cuts both ways. In those circumstances, consumers in England and Wales would certainly not underwrite the high costs of ScotWind projects in an independent Scotland.

The maths is brutal and unavoidable. Developers can currently defray costs across a population of 70 million, no matter where they build an asset in Great Britain.

Losing the ability to defray costs across 5 million people - the situation for England and Wales - would be inconvenient. But losing the ability to defray costs across 65 million people - the situation for an independent Scotland - would be nothing short of catastrophic.

Energy bills would not fall by a third. If Scottish households had to bear the full costs of Scottish renewables, energy bills in an independent Scotland would be substantially higher.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 15/12/2025

Do politicians understand the implications of an energy transition from high return on capital businesses (oil & gas) to low return on capital businesses (renewables)? No, says @antonmuscatelli.bsky.social, they do not understand.

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Sam Taylor @staylorish.bsky.social · 14/12/2025

“a spokesman for the Scottish Government was unable to explain why the claims had been made without any ability to substantiate them” Hannah Rodger tries (and fails) to get answers from the SNP. The energy bills claim cannot be justified because it’s plainly false.

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