Sign in

Stephen Jarvis

@stephenjarvis.bsky.social
5.5K followers 567 following 1.2K posts

Assistant Professor in Environmental Economics at LSE. Posting mostly about energy/enviro research. stephenjarvis.github.io

PostsRepliesMedia
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Similar experience yesterday. The guy did at least turn it down/off when I asked. Still just do not understand why people do this though
090
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Oh for sure I’m with you. Definitely feels like roadworks have gotten worse. And more cycling and walking is a contributor, although that isn’t really a bad thing. But for the vehicles that are on the road, I think they should all pay their fair share, be they commercial, ride-hailing, or private
011
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The mayor did moot an expansion of the congestion charge zone back in 2020, although not clear how serious this was. But would be great to see something like this @centreforlondon.bsky.social proposal for a more comprehensive system of road pricing in London
centreforlondon.org
Chapter 3: A next generation scheme for London
We have already suggested that new technologies offer the chance to replace the current complex, limited and blunt patchwork of charging regimes, with something simpler, smarter and fairer. As we...
020
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The solution that people dare not mention: congestion pricing. The ULEZ and camera infrastructure is there. There’s already a congestion charge in the very centre. Time to widen the footprint and modify the rates so you pay more near the centre and for peak vs off-peak. It can be done!
theguardian.com
London buses in decline? Why public transport in global cities is slowing to a crawl – visualised
As experts fear for future of UK capital’s bus network, some commuters are giving up entirely. London is not alone – with worrying implications for poorest in society
3123
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Freakonomics did a podcast on academic fraud where they interviewed some of the Data Colada people (amongst other things). I remember it being a pretty good listen, but perhaps not what you're after freakonomics.com/podcast/why-...
120
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thanks for the kind words James. I do indeed hope people read some of the detail as there's clearly a lot in there beyond the headline messages.
110
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
The Institute for Fiscal Studies @theifs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
📗 Read @stephenjarvis.bsky.social, @peterlevell.bsky.social and Bobbie Upton’s chapter, funded by @nuffieldfoundation.org as part of our IFS Green Budget, here: ifs.org.uk/publications...
ifs.org.uk
https://ifs.org.uk/publications/electricity-prices
021
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
More of this crap huh? The UK appreciates you keeping us company in the moronic immigration policy club
120
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
Electrification is a far more important energy/climate policy priority than the current preoccupation with things like oil & gas licenses or clean power 2030. Making EVs and heat pumps cheap to buy and operate just has so much more bang for your buck on emissions, energy security, air quality etc
13512
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Yes agreed, should have been clearer. The point in the income distribution at which it happens is indeed different, but the relative comparison of the UK to other countries remains the same and is largely a function of the tax/welfare system rather than immigration per se.
370
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Strikes me that you could remove the word “arriving” and this statement would apply to pretty much any UK household, not just immigrants - tax rates on low earners are very low compared to other countries, so any household has to be higher up the income scale to be a net fiscal contributor
3211
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
Tatyana Deryugina @tderyugina.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
#EconSky: it’s once again time for our call for papers/proposals for the annual NBER conference+publication combo on Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy (EEPE). Submit here by October 20th, 2026. More details below. And please spread the word! conference.nber.org/confsubmit/b...
conference.nber.org
Submission: NBER Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy Conference, Page 1 of 2 - MyNBER
12013
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
In a dance as old as time
000
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Getting back towards price levels not seen since 2022. Not great...
130
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Nice piece from @theguardian.com too about the scale of the upgrades on the way, and the challenges delivering them on time.
theguardian.com
Mapped: the £150bn megaproject that aims to protect Britain from energy shocks
Thousands of miles of new power lines are needed to deliver climate targets and energy security, but bills will rise in the short term and opponents are mobilising
042
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
See also...
141
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
With zonal market reforms ruled out and a whole bunch more renewable generation on the way, failing to do more to upgrade the grid over the last decade is becoming increasingly costly. These network projects now really do need to happen as fast as possible.
1144
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
The Policy Institute @policyatkings.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
NEW: London has among the lowest violent crime rates in England & Wales, tops a ranking of best cities, and pays more in tax than it gets back – but the public overestimate crime risk, underestimate its standing, and don't know it's a net fiscal contributor. Our latest Mistaken Britain study ⬇️
kcl.ac.uk
London misperceptions: public often wrong on capital's crime, quality of life, contribution to public finances and Muslim population | King's College London
A third believe there are "no-go" areas ruled by Sharia law
13322154
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
As our work highlights, ensuring electricity grids around the world can meet critical demands for heating and cooling in the future will require carefully accounting for the combined effect of rising incomes, warming temperatures, and policy-driven electrification in the coming decades. (20/20)
020
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Ultimately all forms of power infrastructure face challenges operating during temperature extremes, from thermal fossil/nuclear plants to power lines and substations. Adequate long-term capacity planning, improved forecasting, and more efficient short-run price incentives will all be key. (19/n)
130
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The costs to the electricity grid of reliably meeting increased demand for cooling and heating will depend on the available generation mix at times of peak demand. Greater use of renewables could present opportunities (solar during heatwaves) and challenges (the dreaded winter Dunkelflaute). (18/n)
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
A number of key takeaways to keep in mind. First, the central role of AC and electric heating to future electricity demand emphasizes the importance of appliance efficiency, as well as passive cooling, building insulation, and urban planning. All could help mitigate the impacts we find. (17/n)
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Cost impacts are also unevenly shared. China and India alone account for nearly half of the global total. Measured relative to local GDP, the burden falls disproportionately on low- and middle-income countries, which face the largest challenge meeting rapidly rising cooling and heating needs. (16/n)
100
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The global cost of meeting this additional electricity demand exceeds $0.3 trillion per year by mid-century. Most of this reflects the expense of meeting higher average electricity demand, but a significant portion also stems from investments in spare capacity just to meet demand peaks. (15/n)
This figure plots costs associated with projected demand changes at mid-century across two sce-
narios: moderate emissions and abatement scenario (SSP2-4.5) and low emissions and higher abatement
scenario (SSP2-2.6). Panel (a) shows the projected local costs as a share of local GDP at mid-century
under SSP2-4.5 (map) and under both scenarios (densities). Densities show distributions grouped by
long-run income based on average GDP per capita in 2021 PPP USD: Low (<$15,000), Middle ($15,000-
45,000), and High ($45,000+). Panel (b) plots the total cost of projected demand changes globally under
both scenarios and highlights key regions.
120
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Income-driven AC uptake dominates in hot, fast-growing economies; warming-driven utilization of existing AC dominates in already-wealthy warm regions; and heating electrification dominates in cold regions, where it generally reverses the reductions that milder winters alone would bring. (14/n)
This figure plots the projected mid-century (2050) change in per capita heating and cooling
electricity demand under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5) in selected projection regions. Total
peak demand impacts (dark grey) are decomposed by the three drivers, income growth (in yellow),
climate change (in red), and electrification (in orange), and compared to total average demand impacts
(light grey). Percentages indicate impacts relative to current (2025) demand levels. Displayed are mean
impacts across 23 global climate models.
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
We can decompose these changes into the three key underlying drivers: economic development, climate change, and electrification policy. This makes clear how these different drivers are heterogeneous across regions but consistently combine to produce the overall net increases we observe. (13/n)
This figure plots the projected mid-century (2050) change in per capita heating and cooling
electricity demand under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5) decomposed by the three drivers:
climate change, income growth, and electrification. Maps show the spatial distribution of projected
demand impacts due to income growth (a), climate change (b), and electrification (c). Displayed are
mean impacts across 23 global climate models
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The result: the peak electricity demand is likely to increase in basically all parts of the world. These peak demand increases are almost twice as large as average demand increases over the year, precisely because cooling and heating demand is concentrated on the hottest or coldest days. (12/n)
 This figure plots the projected mid-century (2050) change in per capita heating and cooling
electricity demand under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5). Map (a) shows the spatial distribution
of projected peak demand impacts. Barplot (b) shows population weighted average and annual peak
demand impacts aggregated globally, with percentages indicating impacts relative to current (2025)
demand levels. Displayed are mean impacts across 23 global climate models.
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
We then bring this all together - our understanding of the electricity-temperature response, the shift in temperatures due to climate change, and the changes in the uptake of AC and electric heating - to model the full 2050 daily electricity demand for countries and regions around the world. (11/n)
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Using this model we estimate the penetration of AC and electric heating globally both today and out to 2050. The uptake of both technologies grows significantly, driven by the combination of higher incomes, a warming climate and active electrification efforts. (10/n).
This figure plots appliance adoption shares for the global sample of countries and sub-national
regions that we are able to make predictions for. The left two plots show the predicted average share of
households with air conditioning. Panel right two plots show the predicted average share of households
with electric heating. The top plots show values for 2025 and the bottom plots show values for 2050.
100
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
To study this we first model adoption of AC and electric heating as a function of a few key variables. We find a clear S-shaped adoption curve as incomes rise, with the shape of the curve varying by how hot/cold the climate is, the level of electricity prices, and the degree of electrification (9/n)
This figure plots the shape of the prediction function from our appliance adoption model. The
figure uses the current population-weighted predictions for our sample appliance regions. These are
simulated over a range of illustrative values for our main model covariates. In each panel column we
plot the predicted appliance penetration share against income, as measured by GDP per capita in 2021
PPP USD. Each curve therefore shows the predicted level of appliance adoption at a given income level.
Columns 1-3 show adoption curves for air conditioning and columns 4-6 show adoption curves for electric
heating. We then further account for differences based on electricity prices: columns 1 and 4 have a price
of $0.50 per KWh, columns 2 and 5 have a price of $0.25 per KWh, and columns 3 and 6 have a price of
$0.10 per KWh. All enter the model as the inverse of the electricity price which would be 2KWh per $,
4KWh per $, and 10KWh per $ respectively. The color of each curve refers to the number of degree days
in order to captures differences in climate. For air conditioning this is CDDs and for electric heating this
is HDDs. Lastly, solid lines refer to predicted adoption where the residential electricity share is 5% and
dashed lines refer to predicted adoption where the residential electricity share is 95%. This only affects
the electric heating adoption curve.
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
The potential net impacts are complex and heterogeneous. Hotter temperatures and rising incomes clearly combine to increase electricity demand for cooling during heatwaves. But milder winters could reduce heating needs, or be offset by the scale of policy driven heating electrification. (8/n)
100
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
But what does all this mean for the future? Three key drivers are of particular interest here: 1) Rising incomes due to economic development, 2) Warmer temperatures due to climate change, and 3) Decarbonisation policy aiming to electrify heating currently met by fossil fuels. (7/n)
100
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Now we can clearly show how the electricity-temperature relationship varies as the penetration of both AC and electrified heating increase. The results are striking, showing how the uptake of these technologies leads to days with extreme heat or cold placing large demands on the grid. (6/n)
This figure plots the shape of the prediction function from our appliance adoption model. The
figure uses the current population-weighted predictions for our sample appliance regions. These are
simulated over a range of illustrative values for our main model covariates. In each panel column we
plot the predicted appliance penetration share against income, as measured by GDP per capita in 2021
PPP USD. Each curve therefore shows the predicted level of appliance adoption at a given income level.
Columns 1-3 show adoption curves for air conditioning and columns 4-6 show adoption curves for electric
heating. We then further account for differences based on electricity prices: columns 1 and 4 have a price
of $0.50 per KWh, columns 2 and 5 have a price of $0.25 per KWh, and columns 3 and 6 have a price of
$0.10 per KWh. All enter the model as the inverse of the electricity price which would be 2KWh per $,
4KWh per $, and 10KWh per $ respectively. The color of each curve refers to the number of degree days
in order to captures differences in climate. For air conditioning this is CDDs and for electric heating this
is HDDs. Lastly, solid lines refer to predicted adoption where the residential electricity share is 5% and
dashed lines refer to predicted adoption where the residential electricity share is 95%. This only affects
the electric heating adoption curve.
100
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
So, how do we model this more explicitly? Yet more data collection! This time we find surveys that give us some sense of the share of households with either AC or that use electricity as their main heating source. Again, we have a large, diverse sample spanning different incomes and climates. (5/n)
 This figure plots the countries and sub-national regions for which we have appliance data. Panel
(a) plots the average share of households with air conditioning. Panel (b) plots the average share of
households with electric heating.
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
But income and climate here are acting as rough proxies for what is really driving variability in this electricity-temperature relationship: the availability and use of electric cooling and heating technologies, chiefly air conditioning and electric heating (resistive, heat pumps etc). (4/n)
120
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
When we examine the relationship between fluctuations in electricity demand and temperatures, we see the kind of effect you’d expect based on the prior climate impacts literature: very hot or very cold days see large increases in electricity demand, but only in higher income countries. (3/n)
This figure shows the estimated electricity–temperature relationship and how it depends on
long-run income and climate. Electricity is in per capita terms (in kW per capita) and based on daily
average load. Temperature is divided into bins, with the 15-18C bin as the omitted category. Each
panel illustrates the average electricity–temperature relationship for a level of income and long-run
climate. Panel rows refer to long-run income groupings based on average GDP per capita in 2021 PPP
USD: Low (<$15,000), Medium ($15,000-45,000), and High ($45,000+). Panel columns refer to long-run
climate groupings based on average temperatures: Low (<10C), Medium (10-20C), and High (20C+).
Coefficients are only plotted where there are a minimum number of sample observations falling into the
relevant climate-income grouping and temperature bin.
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
To study this we first gathered up to ten years of data on hourly electricity demand from national and sub-national grid operators around the world. This gives us a large, diverse sample representing a wide range of climates and income levels (see map). (2/n)
This figure illustrates the sample of countries and sub-national regions with hourly electricity
demand data used to estimate the electricity-temperature relationship. Panel (a) plots a global map of
the sample regions with the colors representing the average electricity demand in kW. Panel (b) and (c)
provide illustrations of the daily and hourly resolution of the underlying data in one of the load regions
during 2023.
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Have been very much out of office on a hiking trip for the past two weeks but now I’m back I’m excited to share a bit more about this new research. Short version: electricity demand for heating and cooling (particularly on peak days) looks set to rise basically everywhere in coming decades. (1/n)
1114
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
Robert Metcalfe @rmetcalfe.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
We are doing another Economist Fantasy Premier League. Econs please join. Congrats to Vigyan who won last season and received the coveted mug. Here is the link to join the league: fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto...
063
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
As the heatwaves keep on coming this summer, I have a timely new @granthamlse.bsky.social working paper out today (joint with Maren Ludwig at UC Berkeley). We show how economic development, climate change, and decarbonisation policy will reshape global electricity demand for cooling and heating.
lse.ac.uk
The global consequences of climate change and appliance adoption for peak electricity demand - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment
In this paper, the authors estimate the global impact of changes in electric heating and cooling demand on the electricity grid in the coming decades.
0115
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
Jacob Aron @jjaron.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
Intellectually I know this, but seeing it on a graph makes me wince www.ft.com/content/ec59...
8209103
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
Jonn Elledge @jonnelledge.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
How Not To Sound Like A Maniac.
jonn.substack.com
Some unwritten rules of English
Or: how not to sound like a maniac.
2114939
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
In France. Have seen said jellyfish. Partial jellyfish SCC easily >$500/tCO2.
130
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The "o" key on my laptop keyboard has stopped working so am now using "Alt+0" as a remapped stopgap. Also trying to use less words with "o" in. Impressive how annoying this is. Aplgies if I type smething that lks like this.
040
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
This kind of behaviour is reckless and stupid. Ban portable BBQs. People caught lighting campfires/fireworks should face severe fines/sanctions. In California during wildfire season you can face thousands of $ in fines and potential jail time for violating regulations around campfires and fireworks
1196
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Agreed - each additional piece of info they share about this just makes it look worse and worse. And this is just what they have so far willingly shared
110
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Not a tech expert, but this really does all seem pretty bad
000
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
It does a bit doesn’t it. Shame it wasn’t an electric utility actually - they could have had a fun name for it at the office / control room: “The Fry-Voltage Transformer” perhaps?
010
Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I don’t know, the utility company probably had to secure some costly debt/equity investment to fund that air fryer. Would have loved to hear them argue for its inclusion ☺️
031
Reposted by Stephen Jarvis
Lee Crawfurd @leecrawfurd.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
New working paper suggests that education may have played a bigger role than previously thought in the first industrial revolution in England www.lse.ac.uk/asset-librar...
03110