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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The global cost of meeting this additional electricity demand exceeds $0.3 trillion per year by mid-century. Most of this reflects the expense of meeting higher average electricity demand, but a significant portion also stems from investments in spare capacity just to meet demand peaks. (15/n)

This figure plots costs associated with projected demand changes at mid-century across two sce-
narios: moderate emissions and abatement scenario (SSP2-4.5) and low emissions and higher abatement
scenario (SSP2-2.6). Panel (a) shows the projected local costs as a share of local GDP at mid-century
under SSP2-4.5 (map) and under both scenarios (densities). Densities show distributions grouped by
long-run income based on average GDP per capita in 2021 PPP USD: Low (<$15,000), Middle ($15,000-
45,000), and High ($45,000+). Panel (b) plots the total cost of projected demand changes globally under
both scenarios and highlights key regions.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Income-driven AC uptake dominates in hot, fast-growing economies; warming-driven utilization of existing AC dominates in already-wealthy warm regions; and heating electrification dominates in cold regions, where it generally reverses the reductions that milder winters alone would bring. (14/n)

This figure plots the projected mid-century (2050) change in per capita heating and cooling
electricity demand under a moderate emissions scenario (RCP4.5) in selected projection regions. Total
peak demand impacts (dark grey) are decomposed by the three drivers, income growth (in yellow),
climate change (in red), and electrification (in orange), and compared to total average demand impacts
(light grey). Percentages indicate impacts relative to current (2025) demand levels. Displayed are mean
impacts across 23 global climate models.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

We can decompose these changes into the three key underlying drivers: economic development, climate change, and electrification policy. This makes clear how these different drivers are heterogeneous across regions but consistently combine to produce the overall net increases we observe. (13/n)

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

The result: the peak electricity demand is likely to increase in basically all parts of the world. These peak demand increases are almost twice as large as average demand increases over the year, precisely because cooling and heating demand is concentrated on the hottest or coldest days. (12/n)

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Using this model we estimate the penetration of AC and electric heating globally both today and out to 2050. The uptake of both technologies grows significantly, driven by the combination of higher incomes, a warming climate and active electrification efforts. (10/n).

This figure plots appliance adoption shares for the global sample of countries and sub-national
regions that we are able to make predictions for. The left two plots show the predicted average share of
households with air conditioning. Panel right two plots show the predicted average share of households
with electric heating. The top plots show values for 2025 and the bottom plots show values for 2050.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

To study this we first model adoption of AC and electric heating as a function of a few key variables. We find a clear S-shaped adoption curve as incomes rise, with the shape of the curve varying by how hot/cold the climate is, the level of electricity prices, and the degree of electrification (9/n)

This figure plots the shape of the prediction function from our appliance adoption model. The
figure uses the current population-weighted predictions for our sample appliance regions. These are
simulated over a range of illustrative values for our main model covariates. In each panel column we
plot the predicted appliance penetration share against income, as measured by GDP per capita in 2021
PPP USD. Each curve therefore shows the predicted level of appliance adoption at a given income level.
Columns 1-3 show adoption curves for air conditioning and columns 4-6 show adoption curves for electric
heating. We then further account for differences based on electricity prices: columns 1 and 4 have a price
of $0.50 per KWh, columns 2 and 5 have a price of $0.25 per KWh, and columns 3 and 6 have a price of
$0.10 per KWh. All enter the model as the inverse of the electricity price which would be 2KWh per $,
4KWh per $, and 10KWh per $ respectively. The color of each curve refers to the number of degree days
in order to captures differences in climate. For air conditioning this is CDDs and for electric heating this
is HDDs. Lastly, solid lines refer to predicted adoption where the residential electricity share is 5% and
dashed lines refer to predicted adoption where the residential electricity share is 95%. This only affects
the electric heating adoption curve.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Now we can clearly show how the electricity-temperature relationship varies as the penetration of both AC and electrified heating increase. The results are striking, showing how the uptake of these technologies leads to days with extreme heat or cold placing large demands on the grid. (6/n)

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

So, how do we model this more explicitly? Yet more data collection! This time we find surveys that give us some sense of the share of households with either AC or that use electricity as their main heating source. Again, we have a large, diverse sample spanning different incomes and climates. (5/n)

This figure plots the countries and sub-national regions for which we have appliance data. Panel
(a) plots the average share of households with air conditioning. Panel (b) plots the average share of
households with electric heating.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

When we examine the relationship between fluctuations in electricity demand and temperatures, we see the kind of effect you’d expect based on the prior climate impacts literature: very hot or very cold days see large increases in electricity demand, but only in higher income countries. (3/n)

This figure shows the estimated electricity–temperature relationship and how it depends on
long-run income and climate. Electricity is in per capita terms (in kW per capita) and based on daily
average load. Temperature is divided into bins, with the 15-18C bin as the omitted category. Each
panel illustrates the average electricity–temperature relationship for a level of income and long-run
climate. Panel rows refer to long-run income groupings based on average GDP per capita in 2021 PPP
USD: Low (<$15,000), Medium ($15,000-45,000), and High ($45,000+). Panel columns refer to long-run
climate groupings based on average temperatures: Low (<10C), Medium (10-20C), and High (20C+).
Coefficients are only plotted where there are a minimum number of sample observations falling into the
relevant climate-income grouping and temperature bin.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

To study this we first gathered up to ten years of data on hourly electricity demand from national and sub-national grid operators around the world. This gives us a large, diverse sample representing a wide range of climates and income levels (see map). (2/n)

This figure illustrates the sample of countries and sub-national regions with hourly electricity
demand data used to estimate the electricity-temperature relationship. Panel (a) plots a global map of
the sample regions with the colors representing the average electricity demand in kW. Panel (b) and (c)
provide illustrations of the daily and hourly resolution of the underlying data in one of the load regions
during 2023.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

"There’s a cumulative impact" This is probably the most defensible argument. But if not here, then where? Seems like it would be more productive to work to ensure some real local benefits rather than just flatly opposing, especially as the final decision is for the minister, not the council. (5/6)

Map from the FT showing the location of the three large solar projects proposed in this part of Kent near the site of the old Dungeness nuclear power plant.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

"roofs before rural" Rooftop solar is more expensive per kWh than large-scale projects. Regardless, the scale of deployment needed means both are needed, and fast. This is a great location with loads of spare grid capacity due to closure of a nearby nuclear power plant. (2/6)

Figure from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's "Distributed Solar Data" reports. Shows average costs of installing small/rooftop solar of around $3.5/W for residential and around $2-3/W for larger non-residential. Clear pattern of costs going down the larger the installation.

Figure from Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's "Utility-Scale Solar Data" reports. Shows average costs of installing large utility-scale solar of around $1.5-2.5/W. Again a clear pattern of costs going down the larger the installation. Note this is just installed capital costs. Utility-scale projects will also achieve higher output (capacity factor) per W installed so costs per kWh will be even lower.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Perhaps some kind of "swan bridge troll" situation where the rail line crosses the canal at Aldcliffe :)

Photo of Lancaster canal by Aldcliffe Road with railway bridge in far background.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

As summer 2026 sees temperature records tumble across Europe, at least we have 2027 to look forward to...

Bart simpson meme where he says "it's the hottest summer on record" and then homer corrects him saying "hottest summer on record, so far!"

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Is there still a chance for "chaos with Ed Miliband"...

Guardian political live blog post following Andy Burnham's speech as new Labour leader, reads: "Burnham claims he has not yet made any decisions about who will be in his 'top team'

Earlier in the speech Burnham claimed he had not yet decided on key cabinet appointments. He said:

'Contrary to what you may keep on reading, I haven’t made any decisions yet about who will be in that top team, but I will soon. And when I have, you will see it reflects all parts of our party, all communities.'"

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Persistent, terrible air quality from wildfire smoke is such a miserable, worrying new reality. I remember how bleak the California Bay Area was in 2020 - the red sky with street lights on at midday. I remember NYC in 2023. And now this morning I've woken up to find it has descended on DC.

Picture of street in Washington DC with hazy smoke-filled skies.

Screenshot of NYtimes wildfire smoke map showing a large plume extending down from Ontario and Michigan across Washington DC and New York.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

As Europe bakes in another heatwave, the AC discourse rumbles on. To add some data to the debate, here's a map of residential AC uptake around the world from some forthcoming research. Given the temperatures now regularly being experienced, people in Europe really just don't have a lot of AC.

Map showing observed or predicted residential air conditioning adoption shares for countries and subnational regions around the world.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

@andytattersall.bsky.social has been tracking this (blog with link to spreadsheet here: blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsoci...)

Chart showing declining share of UK universities active and/or posting on X. In Feb 2025 roughly 90% were still active, but by May 2026 it is now less than 40%.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Given a lack of clear financial explanations we examine the political economy of the regulatory process. We find that utility firms decide strategically when to initiate new rate cases, such that regulated returns respond more quickly to increases in capital cost benchmarks, than to decreases. (4/6)

Plot showing the cumulative adjustment function from simulating the impact on the utility rate of return from a one percentage point shock to the underlying benchmark index. Here we compare approved rates of return and nominal 10-year US Treasuries as our benchmark rate. We plot the change in the nominal rate of return on equity over the subsequent six years. We find evidence of asymmetric adjustment. Rates of return adjust faster to a positive shock (solid line) than to a negative shock (dashed line). In the long run, both converge to a roughly 50% pass-through rate. The degree of asymmetric adjustment appears strongest in the rates of return that utilities propose, but is still present to a notable extent in the rates of return that regulators ultimately approve.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Using data on four decades of utility rate cases in the US, we find a significant premium for regulated equity returns relative to several capital cost benchmarks. Identifying the "true" cost of capital is tricky and sensitive to assumptions, but in general we do see a trend of excess returns. (3/6)

The plot shows return on equity (RoE) gap, by different CAPM benchmarks (percentage points for approved RoE minus estimated benchmark cost of capital). Lines show gap increases from around zero (or negative in 1980s) to steadily positive from 1990s to 2020s, with premium ranging from +0.5 to +5 percentage points in certain instances.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Utility companies recover their capital costs through regulator-approved rates of return. Today equity returns for utility shareholders sit at around ~10% in the US. There are persistent concerns these returns have been overly generous, especially for what is a relatively low risk industry. (2/6)

Figure plots the approved return on equity from our rate cases over the 40 year time period spanned by our sample. We also plot various risky and risk-free market rates for comparison. A couple of features jump out. The gap between the approved return on equity and other measures of the cost of capital has increased substantially over time. Consistent with a story where regulators adjust slowly, approved RoE has fallen slightly (in both real and nominal terms), but much less than other costs of capital. This is the key stylized fact that motivates our examination of the return on equity that utilities earn, the implications this may have for their incentives to invest in capital, and the costs they pass on to consumers.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Some train stations in the US really are wonderful buildings. Wish there was a nationwide, high speed rail network connecting many more stations like these ones.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Went for a walk by Heysham nuclear power plant yesterday. Big piece of kit that’s been cranking out a whole lot of low-carbon power for 4-5 decades. Lots of offshore wind and a proposed 1GW battery project connecting in this area too. Impressive. 🔌💡

View standing on the sea wall by heysham nuclear power plant

View of heysham power plant from the beach

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 01/04/2026

Encountered several coffee places now where I’ve got a small iced americano and thought “hey this tastes great”. Barista has subsequently confirmed that yes their default is 4 shots ☕️☕️☕️☕️. Gonna be a day of high highs and low lows

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

For household retail electricity prices, UK prices have risen a lot from below the European average to near the highest (just below Germany/Denmark). Now double the US average and well above California. Wholesale costs have played a part, but other network/policy costs have also risen a lot. (+11)

Average retail household electricity prices for select countries from 1990 to 2025. Can see UK used to be well below the EU average and Japan, similar to Korea and about 50% above the US. Has risen steadily since 2005 and now above EU average and Japan, and double US/Korea. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026

Average retail household electricity prices for select countries in 2025. Can see UK one of the highest, above EU average but below Germany, Belgium and Denmark. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026

Average retail household electricity prices for select European countries for 2019 and 2014 broken down by components (wholesale, network, taxes/fees/levies). Can see UK prices roughly double to just below Germany. Increase comes from doubling of both wholesale costs and other costs. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 30/03/2026

Another reasonable question is if the market rules aren't fundamentally at fault, why are UK prices so high? First, UK wholesale prices are comparable to most European peers, although a bit more gas price sensitive. US prices have long been far lower. For much of the 2010s Japan's were higher. (+10)

Chart shows monthly average wholesale electricity prices for European countries from 2018 to 2026. Prices generally move closely together with a large common price spike in 2022. Spain/France somewhat lower in recent years due to fuel mix and policy interventions. UK generally middle of the pack and similar to Germany. Source: https://ember-energy.org/data/european-electricity-prices-and-costs/

Chart shows wholesale electricity prices from 2018-2026 for select countries around the world. European countries (France, Germany, EU average) move together in line with prior plot. Japan used to be highest in 2010s. US and Australia persistently have lowest prices. Source: https://www.iea.org/reports/electricity-2026/prices

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

UK grid looking very clean today with prices down in the single digits. Strong wind and solar pushing fossil fuel generation pretty close to record lows. Expect this to become increasingly the norm as renewable and storage capacity keep increasing. 🔌💡

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

Funny that this kind of thing is sufficiently mainstream that biofuel fraud was even a plotline in the latest season of The Lincoln Lawyer

Image of Micky Haller from The Lincoln Lawyer

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

I’m hiring for a full-time one-year Research Assistant (“pre-doc”) position Come work at LSE doing research on energy markets and environmental economics. Great opportunity to build research skills ahead of applying to PhD programmes Deadline March 27th, apply here: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

When choosing a company to manage vast quantities of sensitive UK healthcare data for the NHS I’m not sure “software that dominates” is the vibe I’d go for.

Ad for Palantir Technologies on the DC metro with the tagline “software that dominates”

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is still (for now) churning out some super informative coverage in their Today in Energy series. We used this one on the infamous "duck curve" to discuss the impact of growing solar penetration over time www.eia.gov/todayinenerg...

Chart shows electricity net load (demand net of renewables) in California over time. Can see net load getting lower and lower in the middle of the day as solar output increases over time.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 11/01/2026

Finished teaching a new course on energy markets and the clean energy transition last month. Was a blast and have lots of thoughts for next year. One takeaway is the value of going beyond academic journals/textbooks and incorporating media articles, podcasts, and video. Here's a few we covered... 🧵

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 30/12/2025

Spontaneous ride along the Kent coast to scope out taking a bunch of students on a trip to a wind farm. Obligatory end of trip fish n chips on the beach was top tier.

Bike propped against a wall with the sea behind

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

It's grid connection reform queue day in the UK! 🔌💡 NESO (the grid operator) has published the results of their efforts to unclog the process for connecting new power supply to the grid. Over 700GW of proposed projects have been slimmed down to prioritise 130GW by 2030 and a further 150GW by 2035.

Bar chart showing capacity for different power supply sources in GB. Purple is existing. Blue is proposed that will be prioritised by 2030. Green is proposed that will be prioritised by 2035. Can see Offshore Wind and Solar are largest with reformed queue meeting entire requirement. Onshore Wind still falls short of planned target. Despite a significant haircut of proposed projects, Batteries still has capacity 2-3x the original planned requirement.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Literally one of the few things that seemed like it might happen and would be a good addition to the budget, ideally alongside some broader efforts to reform vehicle taxation. The courage of this government knows no bounds.

Transport secretary Heidi Alexander rules out 'national pay-per-mile' scheme for electric vehicles in budget

Heidi Alexander, the transport secretary, has said the government will not be introducing “a national pay-per-mile scheme” for the drivers of electric vehicles (EVs).

Earlier this month the Daily Telegraph reported that a pay-per-mile scheme for EVs would be introduced in the budget. The paper said the scheme would come in from 2028 and that it would cost the average EV driver £250 a year.

At the time the government did not confirm the story. But it did not deny it either, and it issued a statement saying that it wanted a “fairer” scheme that would compensate for the fact that fuel duty, the main tax for drivers, is only paid by people with petrol or diesel cars.

Today Alexander ruled out a pay-per-mile scheme for EVs – at least on a national level.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

We're hiring! Environmental econ AP position with a focus on biodiversity and related topics. Come join our great community here at LSE, with lots of people working in the enviro econ space across campus. Deadline in just under 3 weeks (Oct 26th) and details here: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

New paper out in @pnas.org! We study the effect of air pollution on pets, finding increased vet admissions when air quality is worse. Tackling air pollution doesn't just matter for human health - it's important for animals too, including people's much loved cats and dogs www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 18/09/2025

Striking stats in @suttontrust.bsky.social report cited by this piece. Dominance of private school / Oxbridge in media, government and law is really quite damning. Big drop for current cabinet vs previous one though, and hilarious that Oxbridge is apparently not an asset in the Scottish parliament

Image shows rankings of top 10 professions with highest and lowers private school attendance. Average for UK population is 7%. Notably at the top end are armed forces (63%), senior judges (62%), shadow cabinet (52%), lords (52%), columnists (50%) etc. Notably at the bottom end are, footballers (4-5%), pop stars (10%), cabinet (7%), trade union leaders (12%), university vice chancellors (15%) etc.

Image shows rankings of top 10 professions with highest and lowers Oxbridge (Oxford or Cambridge University) attendance. Average for UK population is <1%. Notably at the top end are senior judges (75%), civil service permanent secretaries (66%), shadow cabinet (56%), columnists (43%), cabinet (39%), lords (36%) etc. Notably at the bottom end are, footballers (0%), cricketers (0%), olympians/paralympians (1-2%), scottish pariliament / northern ireland assembly (1%) etc.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Lots of wind farms operating close to their max output (capacity factors of 90+%). The ones that aren't are mostly further north and presumably being curtailed - still plenty to do to resolve that particular issue. Nice map with live data is from here: renewables-map.robinhawkes.com

Map showing wind farms across GB. Grey circles are based on the max capacity of the wind farm, with an inner yellow circle representing output. Lots of large yellow circles basically indicating wind farms operating close to their maximum capacity.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 16/09/2025

Cycling in to work with a stiff headwind and clear blue skies thinking "I wonder what the grid is looking like today?" Surprise, surprise: 70% renewables, gas down close to 10%, prices in the single digits (and negative overnight). 🔌💡 grid.iamkate.com

Screenshot of live stats from the GB power grid. Piechart for generation shows 70% wind/solar/hydro, 10% nuclear/biomass, 13% gas, 9% interconnectors and -2% storage. Prices currently £7.5/MWh and emissions at 59g/MWh.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

Basically I hope Ethiopia does not follow in Laos' footsteps where over a quarter of electricity now goes to crypto. That's more than is consumed by all residential households 😕

Pie charts show the share of electricity demand in Laos going to different end-use sectors. In 2024 this is 39% industrial, 15% commercial/government/agriculture, 22% residential and 24% crypto.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 10/09/2025

We should just have GDP figures published every hour with 24/7 coverage - confidence intervals be damned. P.S. I enjoyed the xkcd comic reference. Very apt. xkcd.com/904/

xkcd comic on sports commentary. One presenter says "A weighted random number generator just provided a new batch of numbers". The other replies "Let's use them to build narratives!"

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

This is pretty funny from Miliband. "I'll give you the energy and climate brief when you pry it from my cold, dead hands".

The prime minister’s first choice to take over Angela Rayner’s housing and local government responsibilities was Ed Miliband, but he refused to leave energy and climate change. This appears to have been the one part of the reshuffle that didn’t quite go Starmer’s way.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 24/08/2025

Just spent the afternoon hanging out reading in the park. Local cricket match being played. All kinds of people sat out enjoying the nice weather. A string quartet even did an outdoor music recital. Total hellscape London these days.

Picture of a park in east London on a Sunday afternoon with a cricket match being played.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 15/08/2025

If you could be PM or President for the day but could only make small petty reforms, what would you do? For one, I think I’d ban airports from forcing you to walk through the duty free gauntlet. Truly an awful idea that seems endemic at UK airports.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 13/08/2025

For context, the vast majority of heat pumps installed elsewhere in Europe are air-to-air. This is partly driven by countries like Italy, Spain and France where the primary purpose is often cooling rather than heating. But even in cold Nordic countries the vast majority are air-to-air heat pumps.

Nesta figure showing heat pumps installed elsewhere adoption across Europe steadily increasing from less than 2 million in 2011 to 5 million in 2021. About 80% are air-to-air and 20% are air-to-water.

Heat pump adoption over time in Nordic countries. This begins rising notably in the 2000s, hitting a plateau of 200k in the 2010s and then rising to 400k in 2022. 80+% are air-to-air.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

Also this trope of an "orthodox neoclassical priesthood" suppressing the plucky, heterodox "dissenters" and "activists" is really quite silly. Anyway, with that I'll go dig out my cassock and get back to prepping my teaching materials - these students won't indoctrinate themselves.

The dominance of neoclassical economics in our university curricula has created a world where we are told there is no alternative — only technical adjustments to a system that is fundamentally fair, rational and efficient. But this is fiction. Economics today resembles Catholic theology in medieval Europe: a rigid doctrine guarded by a modern priesthood who claim to possess the sole truth. Dissenters are shunned. Non-economists are told to “think like an economist” or not think at all. This is not education. It’s indoctrination.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 24/07/2025

The broad approach of "mainstream" environmental economics (market failures, externalities etc) may not be to the author's liking. But these core economic theories are still valuable tools for understanding real-world phenomena, and the quantitative methods students learn have lots of practical uses

Rethinking Economics, a group of activists that emerged from the post-crash student rebellion, recently took stock of the state of economics taught at UK universities in its curriculum health check. The findings are sobering. “The climate crisis and socio-ecological issues are broadly absent from economic curricula,” it found. Seventy-five per cent of universities “do not teach any ecological economics”. The report shows how the mainstream’s best-ranked universities often perform the worst in preparing students for the real world. We are training future economists to fail again.

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Stephen Jarvis @stephenjarvis.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

Yes good point, and this comes through clearly with the soaring "cost of other services". But even absent the gas price spike constraint costs have been rising and are forecast to keep growing to 2030 until various network upgrades are completed (see for example these rather ugly charts from NESO).

Chart shows outturn balancing costs from 2018-2023. Constraint costs have roughly doubled, although receded slightly from peak during 2022 energy crisis.

Forecast balancing costs out to 2040 with costs rising through to around £3-5bn/yr by 2030, before significant new network upgrades come online.

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