iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Stephan Poppe

Amrei Bahr @amreibahr.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Nach 14 Jahren fällt man den Entschluss, Academia zu verlassen, nicht mal eben so -- trotz all unserer Kritik ➡️ #IchBinHanna Warum ich dazu nicht bloß die Erkenntnis brauchte, was ich verliere, wenn ich bleibe, sondern auch eine Idee davon, was ich gewinne, wenn ich gehe: Heute in #ArbeitInDerWiss!

steady.page

Tschüss, Academia! Erpressbar war ich gestern

Was es gebraucht hat, um den Entschluss zu fällen, dass ich der Wissenschaft den Rücken kehre -- und was ich schon jetzt dadurch gewonnen habe.

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Molly Jong-Fast @mollyjongfast.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

I kind of want to go

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Wahlrecht.de @wahlrecht.de · 05/04/2025

Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • INSA/BamS: CDU/CSU 24 % | AfD 24 % | SPD 16 % | GRÜNE 11 % | DIE LINKE 11 % | BSW 4 % | FDP 4 % | Sonstige 6 % ➤ Übersicht: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ ➤ Verlauf: wahlrecht.de/umfragen/ins...

Säulendiagramm der Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl von INSA für BILD am Sonntag

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 04/04/2025

Während Elon Musk seine Reichweite gezielt nutzt, um vieles im Sinne einer möglichen Regierung Trump II zu befördern, verliert er auffällig kein Wort zur Zollpolitik. Manchmal sagen die Dinge, die nicht ausgesprochen werden, mehr als jene, die laut verkündet werden.

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 25/03/2025

The bitter Irony: While the subjective Bayesian proudly proclaims in public that all probability is purely epistemic, they nonetheless must secretly entertain an ontological notion of randomness when running their Monte Carlo simulations in Stan to make the thing operational.

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Arne Semsrott @arnesemsrott.bsky.social · 23/03/2025

Der Schaden durch Cum-Ex- und Cum-Cum-Geschäfte beträgt etwa 40000 Millionen Euro. Bei Cum-Cum-Geschäften hat der Staat bisher nur etwa 200 Millionen Euro zurückgefordert, nicht einmal 1 Prozent. www.zdf.de/nachrichten/...

zdf.de

Cum-Ex-Skandal: Versagt der Staat beim Zurückholen der Milliarden?

Rund 40 Milliarden sind dem Staat durch die Cum-Ex- und Cum-Cum-Geschäfte entgangen. Wieso Aufarbeitung und Ermittlungen so schleppend verlaufen.

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Andreas Niekler @eisioriginal.bsky.social · 20/03/2025

We offer a 3-year postdoc to join our LeipzigLab on climate discourses 🌍🔍 We bridge #NLP, social science, and environmental research to explore how climate change, public discourse & political action interact. t1p.de/wfzrv Together with: @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social @mdebrito.bsky.social

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Mariel Goddu @marielgoddu.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Here's a piece I wrote for @aeon.co! You, like all animals, are designed for action. Your perspective on reality is fundamentally that of an active participant–– it's a 'POINT OF DO'. As a *human* animal, your general, shared-across-species causal understanding of 1/

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 21/03/2025

Hiring again! Lecturer in Sociology. We're looking for someone strongly anchored in sociology through high-profile contributions, and with the ability to appeal to students and colleagues of various methodological orientations. www.ucl.ac.uk/work-at-ucl/...

ucl.ac.uk

UCL – University College London

UCL is consistently ranked as one of the top ten universities in the world (QS World University Rankings 2010-2022) and is No.2 in the UK for research power (Research Excellence Framework 2021).

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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/03/2025

New blog post! In which I explain the issue with mediation analysis and sketch out one way to deal with the underlying causal inference problem -- in just a bit over 1,000 words! If you have never found the time to read up on this, now is your chance. www.the100.ci/2025/03/20/r...

the100.ci

Reviewer notes: That’s a very nice mediation analysis you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it.

Mediation analysis has gotten a lot of flak, including classic titles such as “Yes, but what’s the mechanism? (Don’t expect an easy answer)” (Bullock et al., 2010), “What mediation analysis can (not) ...

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Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · 18/03/2025

Want to make nice graphs with me, starting this summer? I am hiring for two PhD positions at the University of Witten/Herdecke.

Treemap chart showing the fragmented landscape of psychological measures.

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

Starke These: das war kein politisches Treffen in Washington, sondern eine knallharte Geschäftsverhandlung um den mineral dea Zelensky hat auf unbedingte Sicherheitsgarantien abgezielt, etwas was Trump als Geschäftsmann so nicht macht, weil er eben kein Politiker ist. bbc.com/news/articles/…

bbc.com

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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 16/01/2025

As expected, the APC talk for the sociologists was a lot of fun! In case you're curious, you can find the slides here: osf.io/mvqkx

First slide of the slide deck "Thinking cleary about age, period, and cohort effects"

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

I recently stumbled across the field of socio-hydrology. It may provide some useful causal explanatory models and ideas for better policymaking, particularly in understanding the PROCESS behind disastrous EVENTS like the Californian wildfires in urban settings. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socio-h...

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Spartipp für Weihnachten: deutsche Dubai-Schokolade

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Andreas Niekler @eisioriginal.bsky.social · 06/12/2024

R on Mac M1 showing strange behavior when sampling binary data! Tried to demonstrate the distribution of means from repeated 10-trial samples of an equally distributed binary variable. Expected a normal distribution around 0.5, but got right-skewed results instead. 🤨 #RStats

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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 03/12/2024

Myth 1: Re-iterating this point over and over again improves psychologists' understanding of statistics in a practically relevant manner.

From Stanley & Spence (2024): https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/25152459241285885.
"Myth 1: There is a 95% chance your true score is in your interval
Some authors correctly understand that the Standard Error of Measurement can be used to construct a confidence interval for a specific individual’s true score. This type of interval is an SEM-Single-Test-Taker Interval. Unfortunately, however, sometimes these authors then go on to misinterpret the information provided by the confidence interval. For example, Kaplan and Saccuzzo (2013)"

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Nach dem Ampel-Aus: Dr. Angela Merkel zurückholen als Expertin für Zerfallsprozesse nach Bindungsbruch?

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Paweł Ausir Dembowski @ausir.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Germany has fallen.

Please note that the Deutsche Bundesbank can no longer be reached by fax as of 31.01.2025.

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Invertierte y-Achse, damit etwas sprichwörtlich abstürzt – sieht man auch nicht alle Tage.

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Ein reges Kommen und Gehen in der @stadtleipzig.bsky.social: Die Statistik zeigt schön, wie Studium und Ausbildung die jungen Alterskohorten der Stadt prägen.

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Reposted by Stephan Poppe

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/11/2024

New stroop task just dropped

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Marc Keuschnigg @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

NEW RESEARCH 🙉 Spreading of misinformation: People don’t pretend, they *sincerely believe in fake news* doi.org/10.1093/pnas... The misinformation policy challenge is less about inducing good behavior but one of correcting false beliefs

doi.org

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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Theorist bridge trolls barking at you to formally connect theory to data? Wondering how, without troll magic? We can help! "Bridging theory and data: A computational workflow for cultural evolution" With @dominikdeffner.bsky.social @natyfedorova.bsky.social Jeff Andrews. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Illustration of a computational workflow for cultural evolution that connects abstract theory to real-world data. The arrows indicate logical and computational dependencies among theoretical, statistical, and scientific elements of a project. For example, an effective inferential model depends upon generative models, a question about those models (estimand), and the structure of the available evidence (sample).

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Peter John Lambert @econopete.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

🧵 New paper uses AI to map global production networks & study recent shifts in global trade: "AI-Generated Production Networks" by @trfetzer.com @econopete.bsky.social @prashantgarg.bsky.social and Bennet Feld.

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Jule Nagel @julenagel.bsky.social · 23/01/2024

Wir haben im #linksdrehenden ne Sondersendung zum Thema #Wahlumfragen gemacht, wie kommen sie zustande, was sind sie & was auch nicht, wie sollte der*die Rezipientin damit umgehen. Mit den Zahlen- & Statistik-Königen @stephanpoppe.bsky.social & Tilman Loos www.linksdrehendes.de/2024/01/ldr4...

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 08/11/2023

Crossposting this: Good entry point: Stone's Representation Theorem. Answers (partially) the question why we set up probability theory in formal terms as a theory of measuring sets, while we naturally speak of probabilities of propositions like P("it will rain").

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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 22/10/2023

After my shock yesterday that ppl pronounce "ln" as "lawn" or "lon", I looked up the history of logarithm notation. Euler used a simple "l" (left below - link to source in next post). No "ln" to be found. History of Math Notations says some lad Stringham is responsible (1893 - right below).

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 11/10/2023

Über die Laufzeit des ausgelaufenen TV-L (01.10.21-30.09.23) hinweg betrug die Inflation 13,5 Prozent... #reallohnverlust

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Stephan Poppe @stephanpoppe.bsky.social · 10/10/2023

Bei den Einführungswochen der Erstsemester an der Uni Leipzig beobachte ich einen drastischen Wandel: Statt der traditionellen Kneipentouren stehen Spätietouren oder Herumziehen mit Bollerwagen hoch im Kurs. Die Inflation macht Kneipenbesuche für viele Studierende unerschwinglich."

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