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Stefan Müller

@stefanmueller.bsky.social
4.3K followers 1.7K following 294 posts

Associate Professor @ucddublin.bsky.social • party competition, public opinion, political communication, computational social science • Maintainer @irishpollingind.bsky.social • Young Academy Ireland stefanmueller.ie

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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
The animated graph was inspired by @ansgarw.bsky.social’s plot on parliamentary seat shares in the Bundestag and a recent article in @economist.com. ⤵️ bsky.app/profile/ansg...
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
New feature @irishpollingind.bsky.social: you can now explore election results and polling estimates from 1987 to 2026 interactively. Select one or more parties to check how their (combined) support has changed. The graph also lists cabinets and government composition. pollingindicator.com/#graphs
Party support in general elections and opinion polls, 1987 to 2026 – graph covers all parties included in the Irish Polling IndicatorSupport for Fianna Fáil, 1987–2026Combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, 1987–2026Combined support for Sinn Féin, Social Democrats, Labour, Green Party, and Solidarity-PBP, 1987–2026
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
What a great database and cool website, Brian. Very intuitive and user-friendly. Fair play!
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brian mcdonnell @sixtwofourtwo.bsky.social · 04/10/2026
The Tipperary inter-county championship hurling database is now live - 1,164 team records featuring 2,700 individual player profiles (1887-2026) - tipphurling.com #hurling
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Áine Lawlor @aine-lawlor.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/s...
podcasts.apple.com
State of Affairs
News Podcast · Aine Lawlor & Chris Donoghue team up to bring you State of Affairs on Irish and international politics Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Our School of Politics and International Relations at @ucddublin.bsky.social is hiring two permanent (!) Assistant Professors in any field of political science, international relations, political theory, or development. Deadline: 9 November Start date: 30 August 2027 my.corehr.com/pls/coreport...

Lecturer/Assistant Professor in Politics and International Relations (x2), UCD School of Politics and International Relations, Permanent
Applications are invited for a permanent post of a Lecturer/Assistant Professor in Politics and International Relations (x2) within UCD School of Politics and International Relations.
 
The UCD School of Politics & International Relations (SPIRe) is a globally ranked, research-active school with teaching and research expertise across the fields of political science, international relations, normative political theory, international development, and other areas. It is committed to the highest standards in undergraduate and graduate teaching and research supervision. The school is home to a number of research centres, and further information can be found at: https://www.ucd.ie/spire/about/
 
95 Lecturer/Asst Professor Above The Bar (7943) Salary Scale: €66,055  - €104,600 per annum

Appointment will be made on scale and in accordance with the Department of Finance guidelines.
 
Closing date: 12:00 noon (local Irish time) on 9th November 2026.
 
Applications must be submitted by the closing date and time specified. Any applications which are still in progress at the closing time of 12:00 noon (Local Irish Time) on the specified closing date will be cancelled automatically by the system. UCD are unable to accept late applications.
 
UCD do not require assistance from Recruitment Agencies. Any CV's submitted by Recruitment Agencies will be returned.
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
My alma mater, and from talking to people it is doing just great these days.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
New paper on gender and disciplinary differences in grant proposal peer review published in @plosone.org. We use supervised machine learning to analyse almost 40,000 review reports submitted to the @snsf.ch. @ucddublin.bsky.social summarised the paper in the thread below. ➡️ doi.org/10.1371/jour...
Gender and disciplinary differences in grant proposal peer review: Content and sentiment in 39,280 reports

Stefan Müller , Gabriel Okasa, Michaela Strinzel, Anne Jorstad, Katrin Milzow, Matthias Egger

Abstract: Peer review by experts is central to the evaluation of grant proposals, but little is known about how gender and disciplinary differences shape the content and tone of grant peer review reports. We analyzed 39,280 review reports submitted to the Swiss National Science Foundation between 2016 and 2023, covering 11,385 proposals for Project Funding across 21 disciplines from the Social Sciences and Humanities (SSH), Life Sciences (LS), and Mathematics, Informatics, Natural Sciences, and Technology (MINT). Using supervised machine learning, we classified over 1.3 million sentences by evaluation criteria and sentiment. Reviews in SSH were significantly longer and more critical, with less focus on the applicant’s track record, while those in MINT were more concise and positive, with a greater focus on the track record, as compared to those in LS. Compared to male reviewers, female reviewers wrote longer reviews that more closely aligned with the evaluation criteria and expressed more positive sentiments. Female applicants tended to receive reviews with slightly more positive sentiment than male applicants. The tone, length, and focus of peer review reports varied systematically by applicant gender and disciplinary context. These differences have important implications for fairness and consistency in research funding.
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University College Dublin @ucddublin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
👩‍🎓📃 Analysis of almost 40,000 review reports for research funding reveals that female researchers provide longer, more positive assessments than their male counterparts and cover the formal evaluation criteria more comprehensively. 🧵 @stefanmueller.bsky.social @ucdpolitics.bsky.social
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Prof David Farrell, UCD @davidfarrell-ucd.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Great opening session of our @ucddublin.bsky.social @ucdpolitics.bsky.social seminar series with my colleagues @karendublin.bsky.social James Cross, @bentonra.bsky.social and @dawnwalsh.bsky.social Lots of home truths about Ireland’s EU presidency
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
New version of the footballinparliament.com dashboard: 1) Search for specific words across the full corpus or around club mentions. 2) Move from speeches to club mentions 3) Further validation and more computationally efficient website Please let us know if you have suggestions.
Overview of dashboardLook up specific termsVariations in club mentions over time
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Thanks, Flo! We’ll build on your APSR about the boycott of The Sun after Hillsborough in our paper (it’ll take a few more weeks until we have a first draft).
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
We’re now expanding the Football in Parliament project into a substantive research paper (to be presented at the Political Studies Association of Ireland Annual Conference in Cork this October). Let us know if you spot errors or if you have suggestions. ▶️ footballinparliament.com 5/5
footballinparliament.com
Football in Parliament: Mentions of Football Clubs in the House of Commons
Explore references to football clubs in House of Commons speeches.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
The new dashboard allows users to investigate which clubs dominate the discourse, explore changes over time, and see which politicians and parties most often refer to specific football clubs. With a single click, you can also read the full speech. 4/5
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
We first compiled a list of 292 senior men’s football clubs that participated in the professional or national senior league systems of England, Scotland, Wales, or Northern Ireland since 1919. Each potential match based on this extensive dictionary was then evaluated by an open-weight LLM. 3/5
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Our dashboard covers 175 football clubs from England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland discussed in the House of Commons since 1920. This process turned out to be tricky (looking at you, Reading, Celtic, and Arsenal, for example). 2/5
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
New project and dashboard on football and politics: footballinparliament.com Stefan Couperus, Martijn Schoonvelde, and I (supporters of FC Groningen, AZ Alkmaar, and Borussia Mönchengladbach, guess who’s who) were wondering how and why politicians talk about football clubs. 1/5
Dashboard: https://footballinparliament.com
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Comprehensive update to the Irish Polling Indicator: all graphs are now fully interactive and work better on mobile devices. There’s also a new page on media coverage of the project. You can still download and reuse the data. ➡️ pollingindicator.com @irishpollingind.bsky.social
Interactive graph showing the most recent estimatesPlot comparing individual polls and Irish Polling Indicator estimatesInteractive graphs showing and explaining “house effects”New section on media coverage
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RTÉ Brainstorm @rtebrainstorm.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Does an interest in Gaelic games predict how you will vote? Analysis by @stefanmueller.bsky.social @ucddublin.bsky.social and Liam Kneafsey @tcddublin.bsky.social @researchireland.ie www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2...
rte.ie
Does an interest in Gaelic games predict how you will vote?
Income levels, education and gender may not predict an interest in the GAA, but it's different with voting intentions and left-right positions
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
2) “Evidence for the irrelevance of irrelevant events”: Outcomes of inter-county hurling and Gaelic football games do not predict how the incumbents or government politicians perform at the ballot box. doi.org/10.1017/psrm...
Abstract: The expectation that voters behave rationally has been challenged through studies suggesting that "irrelevant events" like natural disasters and sports results change voting behavior. We test the effect of irrelevant events by matching candidate-level election results from Irish general (1922–2020) and local elections (1942–2019) with games in the men's Gaelic football and hurling championships, the most popular sports in Ireland. Although Irish citizens care deeply about sports, we fail to find any relationship between match results and support for incumbents or politicians of government parties. These findings hold when applying an "unexpected event during survey design" to two representative surveys. Our results contribute to the literature on political accountability and point to conditional effects of irrelevant events.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
This work (based on a new working paper) extends our research on Gaelic games and politics: 1) “Assessing the Influence of Neutral Grounds on Match Outcomes”: Neutral venues create fairer and less predictable competition. muellerstefan.net/papers/ijpas...
Abstract: The home advantage in various sports has been well documented. So far, we lack knowledge whether playing in neutral venues indeed removes many, if not all, theoretically assumed advantages of playing at home. Analysing over 3,500 senior men's Gaelic football and hurling matches – field games with the highest participation rates in Ireland – between 2009 and 2018, we test the potential moderating influence of neutral venues. In hurling and Gaelic football, a considerable share of matches is played at neutral venues. We test the influence of neutral venues based on descriptive statistics, and multilevel logistic and multinomial regressions controlling for team strength, the importance of the match, the year, and the sport. With predicted probabilities ranging between 0.8 and 0.9, the favourite team is very likely to win home matches. The predicted probability drops below 0.6 for away matches. At neutral venues, the favourite team has a predicted probability of winning of 0.7. A Coarsened Exact Matching (CEM) approach also reveals very substantive and significant effects for the "treatment" of neutral venues. Overall, neutral venues appear to be an under-utilised option for creating fairer and less predictable competition, especially in single-game knock-out matches.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Article on RTÉ Brainstorm with @liamkne.bsky.social ahead of the All-Ireland Finals: we find that GAA interest cuts across income, education and gender, but not politics: Fianna Fáil voters are keenest, left-wing voters least interested. ➡️ www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2... @rtebrainstorm.bsky.social
GAA interest by age (rising from 3.3 for 18–24 year olds to 5.0 for over-65s), by gender (5.0 for men, 4.2 for women), and by area (4.9 rural, 4.4 urban), on a 0–10 scale.Bar chart showing GAA interest by household income (from 3.2 below €20,000 to around 4.7–4.9 across all higher brackets) and by education level (from 4.0 for lower secondary to 4.7 for degree holders), on a 0–10 scale.Average GAA interest by 2024 general election vote choice, ranked from Fianna Fáil (6.3) and Independent Ireland (5.7) down to Social Democrats (3.3) and other parties (3.2), on a 0–10 scale.GAA interest by left-right self-placement, rising from 3.4 on the left to 5.1–5.2 among centrist and right-leaning respondents, on a 0–10 scale.
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EPSS @epssnet.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
The next #EPSS conference will be in Copenhagen from 24-26 June 2027. The call for papers will be out in early fall and you can find all information here: epssnet.org/2027-copenha...
epssnet.org
EPSS 2026 Conference | June 18–20 | ICC Belfast, UK
Join top political scientists for the EPSS 2026 Annual Conference in Belfast. Submit papers, attend panels, and network with fellow researchers.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 05/07/2026
📊 @independent.ie has published the survey question we’ve all been waiting for. Sample size: 1,279 respondents
Who is the greatest footballer of all time?

37% Messi
32% Pele
22% Maradona
10% Ronaldo
Excluding 35% Don't know/Don't care
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Roman Senninger @rsenninger.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
The Department of Political Science at Aarhus University is hiring both Assistant Professors and Associate Professors. Assistant Professor: international.au.dk/about/profil... Associate Professor: international.au.dk/about/profil... Please share these opportunities with your networks!
international.au.dk
Assistant Professor in Political Science - Vacancy at Aarhus University
Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University
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Sara Hobolt @sarahobolt.bsky.social · 21/06/2026
What a wonderful few days in Belfast for #EPSS2026 and what a fantastic community! Thank you to everyone who joined the conference with such enthusiasm A special thanks to @simonhix.bsky.social @kenbenoit.bsky.social @macartan.bsky.social & the rest of the EPSS Council for making it all possible
EPSS Council
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Tom Louwerse @tomlouwerse.nl · 21/06/2026
After a great inaugural @epssnet.bsky.social conference in Belfast, now on my way to Dublin for the Democracy and AI workshop organized by @stefanmueller.bsky.social as part of our @unaeuropa.bsky.social project. democracy-and-ai.com
democracy-and-ai.com
– D&AI
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Adrian Weckler @adrianweckler.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Strong performance by Irish colleges in this year’s QS rankings. UCD into the top 100 for the first time. www.thejournal.ie/irish-univer...
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
Looking forward to the #EPSS2026 roundtable on political dynamics on the Island of Ireland, featuring @gailmcelroy.bsky.social, @kevcunningham.bsky.social , @jamiepow.bsky.social, and John Garry. ⏰ 13:30–15:10 @epssnet.bsky.social
EPSS Roundtable 2: Political
Dynamics on the Island of Ireland

Kevin Cunningham
Ireland Thinks and TU Dublin

John Garry
Queen's University Belfast

Gail McElroy
Trinity College Dublin

Jamie Pow
Queen's University Belfast
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Political Studies Association Ireland @psaireland.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
The Political Studies Association of Ireland annual conference is coming to Cork in October (16th-18th). The call for papers is open now, papers from across the discipline are welcome. Information is available at www.psai.ie/conferences/... Please do share with interested colleagues.
psai.ie
Conferences - PSAI
The next PSAI Annual Conference will be hosted by University College Cork in October 2026. The PSAI also organises a biennial Postgraduate Conference. The most recent Postgraduate Conference was held ...
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LeeWas @leewas.bsky.social · 14/06/2026
𝐃𝐢𝐞 𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐝ä𝐫𝐞 𝐀𝐛𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐠𝐬𝐧𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐥 @leewas.bsky.social 𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐤𝐭 – 𝐦𝐢𝐭 𝐋𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐠𝐧𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐜𝐡𝐭𝐳𝐞𝐢𝐭! Jetzt den Abstimmungssonntag verfolgen: www.tagesanzeiger.ch @lucasleemann.bsky.social @mariostauble.bsky.social @rfrbrghs.bsky.social #10MillionenSchweiz #Zivildienstgesetz #abst26
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Irish Polling Indicator @irishpollingind.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Updated pollingindicator.com estimates after adding the most recent Ireland Thinks and RedC polls: SF: 22% [20.5–23] FG: 17% [15.5–18.5] FF: 16% [15–17] Ind/Oth: 12.5% [11–13.5] SD: 10% [9–11.5] II: 8% [7–9] AÚ: 5.5% [4.5–6] LAB: 3.5% [3–4] GP: 3.5% [3–4] SPBP: 2% [1.5–2.5]
Latest estimates: 

SF: 22% [20.5–23]
FG: 17% [15.5–18.5]
FF: 16% [15–17]
Ind/Oth: 12.5% [11–13.5]
SD: 10% [9–11.5]
II: 8% [7–9]
AÚ: 5.5% [4.5–6]
LAB: 3.5% [3–4]
GP: 3.5% [3–4]
SPBP: 2% [1.5–2.5]
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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.
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Michael Gallagher @michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Of the 137 winners of contested Dáil by-elections, 11 have started with first preference vote below 25%. Only one below 20%: current Ind Ireland TD Michael Fitzmaurice was elected having received 18.7% of first prefs in Roscommon–South Leitrim S 2014. Maybe this record could be challenged on 22 May?
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 23/05/2026
🔵 DUBLIN CENTRAL FULL TALLY Ennis (SD) 19.68% Boylan (SF) 17.72% Horner (Grn) 11.48% Hutch (Ind) 11.46% McAdam (FG) 10.61% Steenson (Ind) 9.51% O Ceannabhain (PBPS) 6.73% O'Dea (Lab) 5.75% Stephens (FF) 4.16% Smyth (Aon) 2.02% bit.ly/DublinCentra...
bit.ly
Dublin Central by-election 2026 tally
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 23/05/2026
🗳️ By-election tallies LIVE! 🚨 🔵 Dublin Central bit.ly/DublinCentral26 🟣 Galway West bit.ly/GalwayWest26 Updates here throughout the day(s)!
The RDS. Home of all civilisation, including an allergy attack for me during first year UCD college exams. I am allergic to horses and the horse show prep was underway.
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 21/05/2026
👀
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Linette Lim @linettelim.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
I defended my dissertation at @ucdpolitics.bsky.social! Thanks to exam comm- @newsprof1.bsky.social, @jelkink.bsky.social & @dawnwalsh.bsky.social, supervisor @alexdukalskis.bsky.social, RSP members @sbrazys-ucd.bsky.social & @stefanmueller.bsky.social, & to @researchireland.ie for funding my work 🎓
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The Guardian @theguardian.com · 21/05/2026
Dublin gangland figure brings extremist views to Irish mainstream on campaign trail
theguardian.com
Dublin gangland figure brings extremist views to Irish mainstream on campaign trail
Gerry ‘the monk’ Hutch has won fans in north Dublin byelection campaign with anti-immigrant rhetoric
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Michael Gallagher @michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
By-elections 22 May: Analysis of transfers at 2024 election in How Ireland Voted 2024 shows that ‘soft left’ (Soc Dems / Labour / Greens) attract transfers both from FF & FG, who prefer them (esp Labour) to SF & other left, and from SF & other left, who prefer them (esp Soc Dems) to FF & FG.
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
One week to go until the Dublin Central and Galway West bye-elections. I’ve wrangled, merged, and analysed various datasets to describe what a century of bye-elections can tell us about Irish politics.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ @news.rte.ie ➡️ www.rte.ie/news/analysi...
rte.ie
Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals
What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 15/05/2026
One of Ireland’s most notorious criminal figures is mounting a new bid for a parliamentary seat in Dublin left vacant by the former finance minister. ft.trib.al/apVCvto
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 14/05/2026
Tepid takes: • 14% for Hutch would get him elected in a general election, but not in this. His only meaningful transfer in ‘24 was from Steenson; transfer toxicity is what cost him • Is a three-point lead enough for Boylan to win? Instinct is that the 14% combined Green/Lab vote breaks for SD
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Gavan Reilly @gavreilly.com · 12/05/2026
Most fascinating part (for me) of last night’s #MondayGR: Kevin Cunningham, pollster at Ireland Thinks, on how Micheál Martin is now so popular with Fine Gael voters that he’s lost Fianna Fáil’s historic support of the working class.
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Liz Carolan @lizcarolan.com · 13/05/2026
What happens when you take a transparency law designed for Meta’s ad architecture and apply it to posters and canvass cards on the western edge of Ireland? We’re finding out in real time Plus: how much have parties spent so far? New Briefing in inboxes www.thebriefing.ie/parties-are-...
thebriefing.ie
By-elections spending: new data from parties
What happens when you design a law around Meta's architecture, and then apply it to leafletting Connemara?
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Thanks for sharing and for your comments on the first draft, Michael.
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Michael Gallagher @michaelgtcd.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Very informative – and topical given two upcoming 22 May by-elections – article on Irish by-elections by UCD’s Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social on RTÉ Brainstorm: rte.ie/news/analysis-and-comment/2026/0426/1569745-bye-elections-through-the-years-analysis/
rte.ie
Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals
What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.
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European Consortium for Political Research @ecpr.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
🛎️ 1 week left to apply for the Summer School on Parliaments @sgparliaments.bsky.social 🗓️ 27 Jul–6 Aug, Goethe University Frankfurt 🎓️ Our expert instructors: @markuswagner.bsky.social @olgaeisele.bsky.social @profrosiecamp.bsky.social @stefanmueller.bsky.social @tomlouwerse.nl ⌛️ Apply by Thu 7 May
buff.ly
Find out more
Summer School of the Standing Group on Parliaments, Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, 27 July – 6 August 2026
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Gerry Arthurs @gerryarthurs.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Really interesting piece here by @stefanmueller.bsky.social in advance of the bye elections in Dublin Central and Galway West
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Stefan Müller @stefanmueller.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Many thanks to Daniel Smith and Stephen Quinlan for collecting and sharing election data, and to Michael Gallagher (@michaelgtcd.bsky.social) for reviewing the text and double-checking the reasons for all bye-elections. www.rte.ie/news/analysi...
rte.ie
Politics: What a century of bye-election data reveals
What do bye-elections tell us about Irish politics? With contests due in Dublin Central and Galway West on 22 May, a century of results offers a sense of campaign strategies and voting behaviour.
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