iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

September 23rd is the Fall Equinox, an astronomical occurrence that marks the 23rd day of Autumn. 🍂

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Mountains do not prevent tornadoes

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The Atlantic hurricane basin is so quiet the hurricane bloggers are doing retrospectives.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Remember, in your long to do list of tasks can be the item: Not wanting to do it. Write it. Check it off. Progress.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Silly question: Has there ever been a recorded instance of thunder-fog? I believe no due to lack of vertically convective flow causing charge separation, but am I wrong?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Well that's an unusual map. A red and orange area of likely development in the same place. The red is for the next day or two. The orange is 5-7 days away.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The Atlantic is of course running low on TCs even though we're in peak season right now, not that anyone's complaining. Of course, since ACE is more about hurricanes and major hurricanes, we're at the lowest amount for this time of year vs the past 30 years.

The Atlantic basin has had fewer tropical storms than normal so far.

The Atlantic basin has had fewer hurricanes than normal so far. None, in fact.

The Atlantic basin is at a record low ACE value so far.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

An interesting thing the remnants of Dolly is the storm is best forecasted to go south of Florida and into the Gulf. But if it were to slow down and curve, that's its best chance of developing. So the NHC yellow area is "if it develops, it will be here," not "that's where it's likely going."

The National Hurricane Center forecast of the seven day chance of cyclone formation. It shows a ten percent chance of this storm developing, located generally over the Bahamas and east of Florida.

Ensemble forecasts show the storm progressing south of the Bahamas and Florida and into the Gulf, most likely not developing into a storm. But the yellow area on the other map is north of there, approximately shown here in the orange line.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Lightning-Thunder. We know the “flash bang.” But what about when there’s the preface before the bang? Crackle-bang? Crunchy-bang? Sparkle-bang?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

In a sense, we’ve only had one classic TCs this year, Bertha. Two shorties (<2 days of life) and one that both formed in the subtropics and was a shorty.

A map of Atlantic basin tropical storm tracks in 2026. TC tracks are labeled with each TC name.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Q: Graphs of Milankovich orbital cycles going into the past abound. Are there any graphs of, say, the next 1000 years of orbital variations into the future? I know applications are limited, but this is astronomy and surely it could be predicted or known, right?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Q: Back in May 2025, WaPo produced this image of WFOs that were or were planning to be closed for the overnight shift. What's the current state of things? Are they all 24/7 again? Are some offices still doing overnight closures? cc: @wxmanms1.bsky.social

Washington Post map of NWS forecast offices that were or were planning to be closed for the overnight shift as of May 2025. This is likely no longer accurate in 2026.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

I said in an interview that seasons like this have featured early season close-to-home storms, but this is BARELY offshore! Good luck to all on getting rain but not floods the next couple of days.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Gap in the industry: Queen and a half mattress.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Pts-Ast-Reb SGA 26-9-5 Wemby 28-3-11 SGA pts: 24-30-26-19-32 SGA ast: 12-9-12-7-9 SGA reb: 3-4-2-4-2 Wemby pts: 41-21-26-33-20 Wemby reb: 24-17-4-8-6 Wemby ast: 3-6-3-5-1 SGA is consistent. Wemby is fading. Obviously, there are gameplay reasons, but maybe “best player” title isn’t obvious now.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Thunder not just settling for 3s when Wembenyama is in, they also aren’t getting turnovers on defense during that time.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Atlantic Hurricane analog years from CSU + WxTiger: ‘97, 06, 09, 15, 23. Landfalls include Cat 4s Idalia + Joaquin, Cat 2 Ida, 4 Cat 1s, 4 TSs. As we say, it only takes one.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

For years, Rs responded to attacks by R men by claiming it was antifa or an inside job. They were all ridiculous claims. Now, an attack on the WH correspondents dinner occurs, and D social media commentators think the “inside job” bit was a good idea? Stop.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

First time on here in a while and... Just because Michigan's tornadoes were outside the new SPC CIG areas doesn't mean the whole system was a bad faith initiative. Instead, the accusation itself seems like bad faith to not give any benefit of the doubt. ...I'm going to focus back on my students.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

The OKC Thunder are 6-5 at home against the East, but 17-3 at home against the West. There have been more East games lately when injuries have been a bigger issue, but I still wonder if this is a strategy.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 24/01/2026

Easy to look at a strong, wide jet stream and think the 4-quadrant divergence must be huge! But the calculated cross-geostrophic wind is also broad with weak accelerations. So divergence is low.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

What I can tell: Maduro is bad for his country; 80% ⬇️ GDP, ignored election result, etc. While 80% of Venezuelans wanted Maduro out, 23% supported foreign military intervention. US citizens also aren’t convinced drugs or alignment with Cuba are a big threat to us. ~25% support for military action.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

"The march to make things more and more efficient makes the world a worse place." ~Roman Mars I wrote a blog expanding on this with when I think efficiency metrics have made sports, elections, monopolies, universities, and even churches worse for community. smoothedweather.com/consideratio...

smoothedweather.com

Efficiency

When a number hurts people..

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

Looking at just western conference games, Thunder have played opponents so far with just a 24% win percentage vs the top 6 in the conference. The rest of Dec-Jan, a similar 27%. But Feb-Apr will be against teams winning 45% vs top 6 teams, with 10 of those 16 games against the other top 5.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

In the current NBA standings the bottom 6 teams in the west are 0-20 against the top 6 teams. The season is only 15% complete, the top 6 is fluid, but someone will have to go lose the 9-10 game.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

bwahahaha. Calculated geostrophic wind speed of 275kts. Real wind was closer to 165kts.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Such a pretty Rossby wave picking up Hurricane Melissa.

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

Michael Lowry @michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Melissa was a Category 5 hurricane for 36 consecutive hours. Only 4 other hurricanes in the satellite record – Irma (2017), Ivan (2004), Mitch (1998), and David 1979 – lasted as long as a Category 5 hurricane. Typically Cat 5s last about 18 hours before weakening.

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

Sam Lillo @samlillo.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Just my routine plea not to compare a hurricane to the EF scale. Please.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

The hurricane's more impactful right side is hitting the most well-constructed part of the country. This may keep the fatality rate, which will surely be high, lower than otherwise. But it will also mean recovery will require international help.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

NHC official position update, with an updated central pressure as well.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

If your students launch a weather balloon on Saturday, you are free to use the data for a homework assignment on Monday. Those are the rules. 🤣

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

The AMS Gator Chapter launched their 4th weather balloon last night from Gainesville. Balloon made it to 11.8hPa and 30,001ft. Maybe next time we’ll top the club 3.76hPa record. Proud faculty advisor.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Gonna be a long season if every OKC game is 2 overtimes.

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

Jenny Chase @solarchase.bsky.social · 20/10/2025

Time for 2025 updates to my annual “opinions about solar” thread. If you like these, you might like the second edition of my book, Solar Power Finance Without The Jargon. A 30% discount code WSQ0437 is valid on publisher website until end of November 2025. www.worldscientific.com/worldscibook...

worldscientific.com

Solar Power Finance Without the Jargon

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 15/10/2025

Just an 85kt subgeostrophic wind off the California coast.

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

UF Geography @ufgeog.bsky.social · 12/10/2025

JOB - The Department of Geography at the University of Florida invites applications for a full-time, 12-month, non-tenure track Lecturer/Assistant Instructional Professor position in GIScience and Geographic Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) explore.jobs.ufl.edu/en-us/job/53...

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Is the Atlantic season ACE ahead of average, about average, or behind average? A study in choosing what historical period to compare to, also known as lying with statistics to support what you want.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 06/10/2025

Would like a history book with a good section on the expansion of surface observations in the 1800s in North America and Europe. Anyone know of one?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 01/10/2025

Why don’t we have a horror movie that takes place in a Spirit Halloween? 🎃🦇

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

So, if AI models are good at track, but physics models are good at intensity, are we going to see a meld at some point?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

At least as far as effective landfalls go, Imelda is only the third landfalling storm this year following Barry and Chantel. And it will turn out that not all I-storms are big baddies.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

The jet stream and 93L interaction in two days will lead to a lot of upper-level divergence on the north side of the storm. These are calculations from GFS data. 🧵

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

In our current 30-year climatological period (1991-2020), the Atlantic is tied for the record low number of hurricanes to date. Neat, but nothing to scream about. If you look at just the last 30 years (1995-2024), this is the longest the Atlantic has gone without 2 hurricanes. smoothedweather.com

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/09/2025

Gabrielle is giving it another go tonight.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 17/09/2025

Teaching hand map analysis with upper air is just sadder than it was last year. It's harder to draw the ridge in the northwest if the data doesn't exist.

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