iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 17h

What's happened to the hurricane hunter? Looks like they abandoned the mission. (They never want to park in the path of the storm, so I assume they are headed to a backup location in Texas.)

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The eastern side of the Gulf is also wanting to play small games today. (Just a curiosity rather than anything hashtag important.)

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I’m looking forward to testing out CarPlay tomorrow.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

I picked up on this a week or so ago when clicking around. Very interesting! I’d assumed the two would be more highly correlated. (Or maybe this is the exception that proves the rule?)

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

September 23rd is the Fall Equinox, an astronomical occurrence that marks the 23rd day of Autumn. 🍂

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Reposted by Stephen Mullens

Jeff Frame @vortexjeff.bsky.social · 19/09/2026

Mountains do not prevent tornadoes

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

The Atlantic hurricane basin is so quiet the hurricane bloggers are doing retrospectives.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

Remember, in your long to do list of tasks can be the item: Not wanting to do it. Write it. Check it off. Progress.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Mountaintop clouds vs upslope fog are just a matter of perspective!

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Hadn’t considered the possibility of this combination. Guess I figured that’s not really thunder-fog.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Silly question: Has there ever been a recorded instance of thunder-fog? I believe no due to lack of vertically convective flow causing charge separation, but am I wrong?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Well that's an unusual map. A red and orange area of likely development in the same place. The red is for the next day or two. The orange is 5-7 days away.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 08/09/2026

The Atlantic is of course running low on TCs even though we're in peak season right now, not that anyone's complaining. Of course, since ACE is more about hurricanes and major hurricanes, we're at the lowest amount for this time of year vs the past 30 years.

The Atlantic basin has had fewer tropical storms than normal so far.

The Atlantic basin has had fewer hurricanes than normal so far. None, in fact.

The Atlantic basin is at a record low ACE value so far.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

Interesting that slide also says wind + storm surge. It incentivizes only using PTC for somewhat rapid development to hurricanes. If it also said rain, then it would help PTCs be used for development to minimal TSs. I could see a motivation that they want PTC to nearly always lead to a TC.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

An interesting thing the remnants of Dolly is the storm is best forecasted to go south of Florida and into the Gulf. But if it were to slow down and curve, that's its best chance of developing. So the NHC yellow area is "if it develops, it will be here," not "that's where it's likely going."

The National Hurricane Center forecast of the seven day chance of cyclone formation. It shows a ten percent chance of this storm developing, located generally over the Bahamas and east of Florida.

Ensemble forecasts show the storm progressing south of the Bahamas and Florida and into the Gulf, most likely not developing into a storm. But the yellow area on the other map is north of there, approximately shown here in the orange line.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 30/08/2026

lol, I was going for the ones slightly farther away.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

Lightning-Thunder. We know the “flash bang.” But what about when there’s the preface before the bang? Crackle-bang? Crunchy-bang? Sparkle-bang?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

There are times where I’m tempted to bet on sports or stuff like this. But whenever I recall the shady aspects of any of these companies it becomes an easy “no.”

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 29/08/2026

In a sense, we’ve only had one classic TCs this year, Bertha. Two shorties (<2 days of life) and one that both formed in the subtropics and was a shorty.

A map of Atlantic basin tropical storm tracks in 2026. TC tracks are labeled with each TC name.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Thanks to the lead provided by finding the paper above, further searching lead to "Interglacial Analogues of the Holocene and its natural near future" from 2015. dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.qu...

dx.doi.org

Redirecting

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

I thought there used to be a page where you could zoom in and out on a line graph of solar irradiance from the Milankovich orbital cycles as you pleased, but I can't find it anymore.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Q: Graphs of Milankovich orbital cycles going into the past abound. Are there any graphs of, say, the next 1000 years of orbital variations into the future? I know applications are limited, but this is astronomy and surely it could be predicted or known, right?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Thanks. My understanding is this, reduced balloon launches, NCAR, ongoing (re)hiring and training are the headlining staffing issues that remain from the beginning of last year. Am I forgetting another big one?

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Q: Back in May 2025, WaPo produced this image of WFOs that were or were planning to be closed for the overnight shift. What's the current state of things? Are they all 24/7 again? Are some offices still doing overnight closures? cc: @wxmanms1.bsky.social

Washington Post map of NWS forecast offices that were or were planning to be closed for the overnight shift as of May 2025. This is likely no longer accurate in 2026.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

Joke: “Make back of page all AI white text.” I’ve seen “AIs select resumes written by itself,” so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. Make a targeted one and submit via email (ideal) or have 3-4 LLMs write one and submit them all (not ideal).

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

I said in an interview that seasons like this have featured early season close-to-home storms, but this is BARELY offshore! Good luck to all on getting rain but not floods the next couple of days.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 04/06/2026

Midpoint. Take the widths and divide by two.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Gap in the industry: Queen and a half mattress.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Pts-Ast-Reb SGA 26-9-5 Wemby 28-3-11 SGA pts: 24-30-26-19-32 SGA ast: 12-9-12-7-9 SGA reb: 3-4-2-4-2 Wemby pts: 41-21-26-33-20 Wemby reb: 24-17-4-8-6 Wemby ast: 3-6-3-5-1 SGA is consistent. Wemby is fading. Obviously, there are gameplay reasons, but maybe “best player” title isn’t obvious now.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Apparently not x2. Thunder scramble couldn’t result in points with 40 seconds left. Ballgame.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Apparently not. Double overtime we go. What a game. 108-108. Thunder-Spurs.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Overtime now. Wemby is tired. The end of the 4th has had different dynamics as the first 3.5 quarters, as you might expect. OKC advantage.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Jalen Williams being unafraid to drive on Wemby is his best contribution.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

2min left, Wemby is wandering close to the 3pt line on defense, and it’s giving the Thunder driving opportunities.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Thunder on offense had a baseline player accidentally pick Wemby while their player with the ball was driving. They got the layup. Thunder could use a half dozen designed plays like that.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Thunder not just settling for 3s when Wembenyama is in, they also aren’t getting turnovers on defense during that time.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

I think of “data centers” supporting LLM training and use as separate from now-traditional cloud data storage, HPC, and servers running websites. LLM data centers seem orders of magnitude bigger than the cloud.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Notable timing, avg of 5 seasons: JJA - 3 landfalls from 6.4 storms per year. Sept - 0.6 landfalls from 5 storms per year. ON - 1 landfall from 2.4 storms per year. Watch for early season storms forming close to land before peak El Niño. Really hard for MDR storms to track due west.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 08/05/2026

Atlantic Hurricane analog years from CSU + WxTiger: ‘97, 06, 09, 15, 23. Landfalls include Cat 4s Idalia + Joaquin, Cat 2 Ida, 4 Cat 1s, 4 TSs. As we say, it only takes one.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Oh wow. I’m just VERY intrigued by the ability to show animations that relate to fundamental dynamics and QG stuff. Did a big dive to learn baroclinic instability and teach it for the first time this year, so these are speaking to me. You’re doing good work.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

Had never heard of speedyweather, but looks great!

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

How does this differ from the prior post? Seems the temp gradient is sharper and heights evolve less.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

More and more, the D social media commentators seem to want to imitate the worst of what the R politicians and commentators before them have been doing. I know the recent presidential election results, but this is not the situation where you should fight fire with fire.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

For years, Ds claim to be the party of good governance, and Rs run to name calling and labeling events the opposite of what they are. Since Biden’s presidency, D social media commentators seem to want to win the war of words more than governance, seemingly wanting to copy R bullying style. Stop.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 27/04/2026

For years, Rs responded to attacks by R men by claiming it was antifa or an inside job. They were all ridiculous claims. Now, an attack on the WH correspondents dinner occurs, and D social media commentators think the “inside job” bit was a good idea? Stop.

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

Didn’t think about color fill, but you’re right!

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Stephen Mullens @srmullens.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

First time on here in a while and... Just because Michigan's tornadoes were outside the new SPC CIG areas doesn't mean the whole system was a bad faith initiative. Instead, the accusation itself seems like bad faith to not give any benefit of the doubt. ...I'm going to focus back on my students.

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