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Becks Spake

@spakey.bsky.social
113 followers 113 following 50 posts

Ass Prof #Ecology interested in forests and deer and other things. Learning about causal inference. 🦌🌳 sites.google.com/view/treelabecolog…

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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 22h
When I first became a scientist, I realised I needed to get used to feeling stupid. I'm OK with stupid. All good. Now I'm an academic, having to balance teaching, admin and research, the dominant feeling seems to be frazzledness. It's overwhelming at times. Any tips and advice...? #academia
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Goats cheese!!
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
We all had a good sniff of a Fragrant Toothcrust fungus today, Mycoacia nothofagi Opinions differed on what the smell resembled. I was getting pineapple.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Hi! ☺️ It wasn't recorded, but always happy to chat! Or Ed suggested I present to SORTEE? Currently writing a manuscript on this topic.
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Phil Martin @philmartin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I'm super excited & proud to share our latest paper with you all, published today in @jappliedecology.bsky.social! The team put together a systematic map on the factors impacting the use of scientific evidence in biodiversity conservation decision making. (1/12) tinyurl.com/3c6x6vca
tinyurl.com
Factors influencing the use of scientific evidence in conservation practice and policy: Insights from a systematic map
Researchers should move from characterising factors impacting scientific evidence use to identifying and testing interventions to facilitate its use by conservation decision makers. Since these facto....
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Well that's a wrap! 🍁 Thank you for having me @itchyshin.bsky.social !! I loved visiting the amazing COSSEE Lab team, and giving my seminar 'Meta-analysis without a target: what exactly are we estimating?". Was great to meet incredible wildlife biologists at @ualbertapress.bsky.social
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Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 18/09/2026
Sometimes you get a referee report back and you're just like "huh I guess you're right, this paper does kinda blow"
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Currently visiting @itchyshin.bsky.social at University of Alberta 😀 My mind is blown from all the great discussions with COSSEE lab members and collaborators! cossee.org
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Rob Boyd @robboyd.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
What makes a multispecies abundance indicator "wrong", and what can be done to fix it? Read our new paper in Ecography to find out! @sacrevert.bsky.social @spakey.bsky.social @susanjarvis.bsky.social, Gary Powney and Xiao-Li Meng @uniexecec.bsky.social @ukceh.bsky.social doi.org/10.1002/ecog...
doi.org
How to reduce sampling error in species population monitoring: from theory to methods
Progress towards national and international targets to halt and reverse declines in species' abundances will be assessed using multispecies indicators (MSIs). A distinction must be drawn between two ...
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Does anybody else get a horrid visual when asked: 'Can I pick your brains?'? or 'I'd love to pick your brains on something'. BACK OFF, ZOMBIE! 🧟🧠⚔️
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Riccardo Fusaroli @fusaroli.eurosky.social · 21/08/2026
"...knowing when to stop banging one’s head against those internal cranial walls and ask a stupid question of one who knows more than you. Figuring out how to present a stupid question to someone you do not want to think you stupid is also a necessary component of thinking and learning."
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
😡Tell this to my big sis, an @england.nhs.uk consultant, who has been working tirelessly to treat the vulnerable during the heatwaves Tell this to those on the frontline battling the wildfires 🔥
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
I love Regression and Other Stories for teaching! :)
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
All four books I've co-authored are freely available online for non-commercial use: - Bayesian Workflow at avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor... Links to other three books are in the quoted post 👇 (too many books to fit in one post!)
avehtari.github.io
Bayesian Workflow book: Website – Bayesian Workflow book
Website for the Bayesian Workflow book by Gelman, Vehtari, McElreath, et al. — case studies, code, and exercises in R and Stan.
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Dr Abi Perrin @abiperrin.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
Combining science and activism.... does it damage public trust? Or could it be the only thing powerful enough to combat the disinformation and passivity that is holding back urgent action on existential threats such the Climate Emergency? More from us in @nature.com today: rdcu.be/fzcmS
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
#caturday
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
I laughed so hard like a crazy person 🤣😆 (at the memes, not the moth).
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
And I saw a hummingbird hawkmoth. Great day.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Today I was delighted to discover the meme gallery on the marginaleffects website 😂 marginaleffects.com/bonus/meme.h...
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Dr. Joan Dudney @dudney-joan.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
Check out @olross.bsky.social's new preprint on matching methods for field ecology! In our efforts to randomize plot selection, we've overlooked a more fundamental issue: the treatments themselves—e.g., disturbances—are rarely randomized! PSM provides a solution 🧪🍁 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 28/07/2026
Hmmmm... 🦌🦌🦌🐑🐑🐑🌱🌱🌱
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
Today we wrapped hundreds of saplings in sheep wool, to see if they reduce deer herbivory. 🦌🌱 So nice getting out in the field. 🌳 Took f ages 😃
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 20/07/2026
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
Thinking Clearly About Sampling and Representation With the Total Survey Error Framework

Collecting a sample that represents the population of interest well constitutes a challenge across the social and behavioural sciences. Psychology in particular frequently relies on convenience samples—most notably students and, increasingly, online participants—with a tendency to either (implicitly) assume representativeness without substantive justification, or to acknowledge a lack of it only in passing. In contrast, researchers rarely engage with the actual implications for their inferences, which undermines the generalisability of psychological findings. Critically, representativeness must be defined with respect to variables relevant to the target of inference, rather than superficial demographic diversity. Here we present the Total Survey Error (TSE) framework as a methodological tool that systematically addresses the multifaceted sources of error—particularly those related to representation—that emerge throughout the research cycle. Although TSE originated in survey research, its principles are broadly applicable to any psychological study seeking inference from sample to population. We offer practical strategies for identifying, preventing, and mitigating representation errors to improve the credibility and generalisability of psychological research.

Illustration of the total survey error framework with the representation strand highlighted. It shows how coverage error, sampling error and non-response error arise during the sampling process.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
This looks useful. A typical meta-analysis in ecology mixes experiments with observational studies, mixes coefficients with different controls and therefore different causal meanings. I would not normally say "hey the folks in medicine are doing it right, imitate them" but in this case maybe
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 16/07/2026
Really excited and proud of this new initiative, funded by the New Forest Biodiversity Forum It has been fun helping students draw DAGs under the trees 🌳🌲 We took some totally candid, completely natural photos of us in action 😂 www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/2627446...
dailyecho.co.uk
New research programme launched to protect wildlife in the New Forest
A new environmental research programme has been launched to help protect rare wildlife.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
D'oh! 🐦🎶🔇
Passive acoustic monitor with bluetack placed over the microphone
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James Dyke @jamesgdyke.info · 23/06/2026
Gave an interview to @news.sky.com earlier this evening about heatwaves. I said I gave a very similar interview 10 years ago (that time to BBC) about heatwaves. Politicians have failed to act. Societies have failed to adapt. And here we are. We are in dangerous climate change.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Will it be available online after? Ta!
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 24/06/2026
Sheila is struggling in this heatwave 🥵
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 08/06/2026
Now that's what I call a spicy opeing: Understanding mechanisms is not a research question.
"Understanding Mechanisms?"
"Understanding" is not a research question
- how do you verify understanding?
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Shinichi Nakagawa @itchyshin.bsky.social · 25/07/2025
Around 3 years ago, we started writing papers during our weekly lab meetings. This is the first one from our new lab at @ualberta.bsky.social Location-Scale Models for Ecologists! preprint: ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v... tutorial: ayumi-495.github.io/Eco_location... Enjoy! #glmmTMB #brms
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Edward R. Ivimey-Cook @eivimeycook.bsky.social · 02/08/2025
Here's said mascot along with an excellent checklist by @shreyadimri.bsky.social
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Joel Pick @joelpick.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Interested in simulating the kind of data that you might commonly find in evolutionary and ecological studies? Then we have the R package for you - squidSim!! Check our new preprint: ecoevorxiv.org/repository/v...
ecoevorxiv.org
squidSim: a flexible R package for structured and reproducible simulations in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
www.bbc.com/news/uk-engl...
bbc.com
Bird mimicking police siren leaves inspector fooled at Bicester station
Simon Hills says the noise was "so accurate" it left officers believing their cars were faulty.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 07/06/2026
Managed to record this male blackbird mimicking the sound of me calling my pet turkey, Maggie! For weeks I thought a neighbour was making fun of me, until I realised it was this guy! Can you hear it?? 🐦🦃
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diego@estupido.fyi @estupido.fyi · 04/06/2026
*screaming at Eigenvector 1* I thought you were a real dimension! my life is a lie!
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Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Epidemiologist Donna Spiegelman sez: SUTVA is “mostly not necessary for valid causal estimation and inference most of the time” statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/03/e...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Epidemiologist Donna Spiegelman sez: SUTVA is “mostly not necessary for valid causal estimation and inference most of the time” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Lila is wise
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
I kicked the day off by showing how I implemented a 'Causal Salad' approach (sensu @rmcelreath.bsky.social) in one of my PhD chapters! 🙈😣
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 28/05/2026
Had the best day kicking off our project 'Precision Ecology for a Changing World'. I learned (and laughed) a lot today @jmbecologist.bsky.social @r-cooke.bsky.social
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
A nice summary of how different causal inference approaches can be used in habitat fragmentation research in light of necessary data and assumptions
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Approaches i and ii estimate the effect of current fragmentation state on current biodiversity? Approaches iii and iv estimate the effect of change in fragmentation on change in biodiversity over a defined period?
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Interesting! I like the four causal approaches that are suggested. As I think I understand it, they target different estimands.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
That way we can tell when they arise through implicit differences in causal assumptions, or just different questions altogether
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Using DAGs and being explicit about estimands and hypothesised data-generating processes render disagreements about study findings tractable
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
This is a classic example of why some debates go 'unresolved'. Sometimes, we are simply arguing about different estimands! Similar to Lord's famous 'paradox' (not actually a paradox!) ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/causin...
ideas.repec.org
Lord’s Paradox Revisited – (Oh Lord! Kumbaya!)
Among the many peculiarities that were dubbed “paradoxes” by well meaning statisticians, the one reported by Frederic M. Lord in 1967 has earned a special status. Although it can be viewed, formally,
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Why I am now confused... any fragments that remain in a landscape are not a random subset of the original forest patch. They might be retained on less/more productive soils, or near settlements.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Both are useful estimands, so long as they are interpreted with care. They answer very different questions.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... This paper argues for direct effects
conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Why controlling for habitat amount is critical for resolving the fragmentation debate
Click on the article title to read more.
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Becks Spake @spakey.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
The total effect of deforestation (which causes both loss and fragmentation of habitat) is often negative The direct effect of fragmentation (conditioning on habitat amount) can be weakly positive
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