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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 13/02/2025

Following up on this, declines in consumer sentiment about the economy after inauguration came mostly from democrats and somewhat independents. Republicans sentiment shot up even higher

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Vibe shift? Consumer sentiment peaked in Trump’s first week but has been dropping down since then, mostly driven by dampened future expectations

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

Biggest real sign I’ve seen that he’s going to back down on original broad based tariff plans

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

In the same survey millennials were most likely to say that high interest rates affected their household finances (82% of them). Just thought it was interesting that they would be most affected but least plugged in! Obviously not everyone *needs* to be hyper aware

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

We need baby steps with Gen Z lol…

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

A slightly smaller share of adults believed that interest rates were too high in December vs June, but that share was still more than 60%. Full report: t.co/qQnUndyfZB

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 23/01/2025

The Fed has a communication problem with younger Americans: only 16% of GenZ adults and Millennials were aware the Fed had cut rates in December when we asked them (Dec. 19-22). I think this is part of a larger media ecosystem problem wrt the economy lately

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

Morning Consult’s unemployment index continues to decline — updated through Jan 18

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

First episode of Consumer Says for 2025 is out — we talk 2024 biggest losers and winners globally for consumer sentiment as well as a deeper dive into rising sentiment in the US youtu.be/sl-TJdZLiGk

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 13/01/2025

“Providing Republicans with specific information on the likely consumer cost of Trump’s tariff proposals actually backfired, increasing support for the tariffs relative to the control group.” A very interesting survey and read from my colleague Sonnet: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/tru...

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Catherine Rampell @crampell.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

After today's strong job report, markets betting that chances of any additional rate cuts by May are <50%. www.cmegroup.com/markets/inte...

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

@kaylabruun.bsky.social called it in her memo yesterday: declines in Morning Consult’s Unemployment index "likely points to a potential downside surprise for December unemployment per the BLS but not a dramatic drop". Urate did in fact surprise to the downside today at 4.1%

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Kayla Bruun @kaylabruun.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

Our last Consumer Says ep of the year!! Tune in for @sofiabaig.bsky.social and me talking all about tariffs, Fed and INFLATION! (...or if you prefer silence - see our accompanying newsletter! read: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con... subscribe: pro.morningconsult.com/newsletters?...)

pro.morningconsult.com

The state of the U.S. economy heading into 2025

Morning Consult economists Kayla Bruun and Sofia Baig discuss the current state of the U.S. economy heading into 2025 – from the labor market, to consumer finances to spending and more. Discussion inc...

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

Last Consumer Says podcast episode of 2024 with @kaylabruun.bsky.social and it’s all on what consumers think about tariffs + a mini Fed discussion at the end! Check out the full episode here: www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4Rb...

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Latest episode of Consumer Says is out where @kaylabruun.bsky.social and I go over the top 4 headwinds and top 2.5 tailwinds facing the US economy now. Might be my favorite one we’ve done yet! m.youtube.com/watch?v=GF5d...

m.youtube.com

Consumer Says 12/4/24: The state of the U.S. economy heading into 2025

YouTube video by Morning Consult

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Not a surge but a bit of an uptick in our daily consumer sentiment survey. Mostly because Republicans are more optimistic about the future than Dems are pessimistic after the election

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

…but at the same time 45% think that costs are passed down to US consumers ultimately

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Most voters think foreign companies or foreign governments pay for tariffs

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Kayla Bruun @kaylabruun.bsky.social · 22/11/2024

Our team writes A LOT about differing dynamics/econ experiences across income groups. It's mostly been bad news for lower earners... But from late summer thru mid-Nov, we are finally seeing improvement in consumer health scores - with <$50k group showing the most progress!

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Diane Swonk @dianeswonk.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Nice catch on updates to employment data by @jc-econ.bsky.social. Suggests productivity growth higher & slowdown in hiring well underway. Likely changes in the pace of new biz birth and deaths - tends to happen at inflection points. Interest-rate sensitive sectors hurting most.

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Kayla Bruun @kaylabruun.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

The Walmart/Target earnings contrast got me curious....so I took a look at how our brand-specific Consumer Health Index (CHI) scores shifted in Q3. Turns out there were some conflicting demand patterns among these retailers customers, foreshadowing their earnings outcomes!

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Retail expert Claire Tassin joined @kaylabruun.bsky.social and me to discuss consumer demand and holiday shopping trends for 2024. Check out the full episode here: m.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...

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Kayla Bruun @kaylabruun.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

It's podcast day for @sofiabaig.bsky.social ...me...and our VERY SPECIAL GUEST, retail expert Claire Tassin!! We chat about consumer demand in general and then dig deeper on 2024 holiday spending trends & Black Friday expectations! Watch on Youtube: www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezht...

youtube.com

Consumer Says 11/20/24: What to expect this holiday season

YouTube video by Morning Consult

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Kayla Bruun @kaylabruun.bsky.social · 20/11/2024

Update on Morning Consult's Consumer Health Index (CHI) - we are seeing some interesting movements as we approach peak holiday spending season! Consumer demand appears to be picking up thru mid Nov (chart runs thru Nov. 16)--and it's not just driven by the post-election sentiment bump either...

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

“.. Goldman’s chart is a good example. Based on their estimations, the terminal [Fed Funds] rate will be around 4-4.25% under a high tariff regime, a percentage point above current market expectations ..” - FedWatch Advisors #FOMC

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Is the comparison to the US government/economy to Argentina driving anyone else crazy? Or is this just a very particular pet peeve of mine. Argentina had way more government spending relative to GDP, ownership of companies in certain industries, currency controls, 100x US inflation, etc.

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

I should say from its recent peak, not historical peak :)

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Follow my coworker and podcast cohost @kaylabruun.bsky.social for more charts and updates from Morning Consult Economics!

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Good news - Morning Consult’s unemployment index has been trending down ever since it peaked the second week of September. Updated through Nov 16

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Inflation is the incumbent killer!

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 18/11/2024

Incredible chart via WSJ

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

I think the results for this survey question have a similar explanation — loss aversion. People feel inflation/high prices is something that happens unjustly *to* them whereas people feel they earn higher wages. ie wage gains don’t feel as good as price increases hurt

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Stay tuned for future Morning Consult survey data on tariffs 👀

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

I guess I’m not the only one wondering if the proposed tariff policies are *actually* going to happen

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Upping this for those curious about the breakdown in future expectations/current conditions that make up consumer sentiment

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

First thread contains a typo so I’m starting off strong 😂

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Super helpful resource when starting out here!

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

here it is! More analysis/demos here: pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/con...

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

but interesting we also so a tick up at the all adults level, meaning optimism for the economy won out slightly despite the differences by party lines

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Morning Consult’s consumer sentiment index swapped immediately for Democrats and Republicans following the election last week mostly due to changes in future expectations

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Sofia Baig @sofiabaig.bsky.social · 15/11/2024

Hello #EconSky! Overwhelmed trying to replicate my Twitter following list, who should I follow over here?

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