iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

Reckonings within the DC policy establishment never happen but the following should be recognized: Liberal champions of Venezuelan democracy got played and gave cover and legitimacy to amateur neo-imperialists, helping them birth a dangerous and destabilizing new order.

020

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Graham Webster @gwbstr.com · 03/01/2026

decades of “national security” people treating those concerned about US imperialism as wacko commies while intoning gravely about a supposed liberal/rules-based order under threat by a rotating cast of someone else.

0166

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Trump is going to declare victory and leave the Maduro-regime-without-Maduro in place, isn’t he? The dumbest possible ending.

030

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

More than decent I'd say, especially given that 32 out of 48 teams get to the knockouts...

000

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

I agree to some extent but I have two hesitations: 1) The admin has been increasingly open about regime change being the goal. 2) The people who have pushed to get this far - Rubio, friends in FL - certainly view regime change as the goal. There will be big internal pressure to escalate.

010

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

In sum, the odds of a limited military action ousting Maduro are much lower than commonly perceived and we should be wary of dealing Trump in at a blackjack table where he will be chasing losses and tempted to double down on a bad hand. 6/

010

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Trump will be tempted to escalate to delivery victory. A more extensive air campaign or a limited ground invasion will come onto the table as options. Arguably, proponents of action against Venezuela know this and are trying to maneuver him into this position. 5/

110

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

What if airstrikes fail to trigger a coup or trigger an attempted coup that fails? Trump will never take the L. One option might be to redefine success (ie, we destroyed the narco infrastructure) and call it a day. But this will be transparently nonsense and leave him looking very weak. 4/

220

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

The coup must be organized by mid-ranking officers who wouldn’t fear trial under the next government. Coups are risky coordination games that require communication and trust across units. The government knows this, surveils these officers intensively, and has done a lot of other coup proofing.3/

120

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

The most plausible mechanism linking air strikes to Maduro’s removal is a coup. Yet FANB’s upper echelon is deeply implicated in corruption and abuses. Even if air strikes impose costs, they have little incentive to remove Maduro without a guaranteed amnesty. 2/

110

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 03/12/2025

Coup Dynamics and Escalation Risk in Venezuela Air strikes offer little guarantee that Maduro will be ousted. Maduro is unpopular and illegitimate. But its not clear why this matters. Air strikes do not trigger a popularity contest. 1/

110

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

I see what you're saying, maybe that's a fairer reading. I do think its just an indefensible level of confidence about a very complex and unpredictable scenario. But I get why they feel the need to project that confidence. They feel like this is the opportunity and they want to shoot their shot.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

I get why Team MCM/Edmundo makes this argument yet its still hugely annoying to be told that anybody who believes democracy might not magically materialize in an already failed state after US sponsored regime change via force is simply providing cover for Maduro. www.wsj.com/opinion/what...

wsj.com

Opinion | What Comes After Maduro Falls

Disregard the warnings of civil war. Venezuela stands united behind democratic leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González.

110

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Broad protections for civil liberties are a definitional element of democracy but not autocracy. That's the best reason for ordinary folks. Even if democracy is only a game for resolving elite conflicts w/o violence, ordinary people bear the brunt of that violence. That's another reason.

011

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 12/09/2025

If he’s limping bc he’s got a rifle part down his pants it’s amateur hour but if he’s doing it to throw off gait recognition tech that’s some serious forethought.

230

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

Swarthmore is hiring in Comparative Politics with an emphasis on China! Apply by 9/15 for full consideration: apply.interfolio.com/170741 Feel free to reach out if you have questions! #polisky #poliscijobs #poliscijobmarket #psjminfo #academicjobs

apply.interfolio.com

Apply - Interfolio {{$ctrl.$state.data.pageTitle}} - Apply - Interfolio

043

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 23/07/2025

Swarthmore is hiring in Comparative Politics with an emphasis on China! Apply by 9/15: apply.interfolio.com/170741 Feel free to reach out if you have any questions. I know its rough out there. Best wishes to all on the market. #polisky #poliscijobs #poliscijobmarket #psjminfo #academicjobs

032

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Daniel Laurison @daniellaurison.bsky.social · 07/04/2025

JOB! Please RT. Swarthmore is hiring for our Social Science Quantitative Lab Associate to support & do teaching quant methods to undergrads. Especially looking for people familiar with sociology and/or political science, and R. Apply by 4/18. apply.interfolio.com/165892 Happy to answer questions.

Responsibilities (continiued)
Providing statistical support to students during regular office hours and by appointment, including assisting students with the identification, manipulation, and analysis of data sets for their empirical research projects

Planning and hosting stand-alone workshops to train students to work with statistical software commonly used in the social sciences, such as R, Stata, Python, Matlab, and/or Geographic Information System (GIS)

Collaborating with social science faculty teaching quantitative courses on how best to support their courses and their students

Creating additional opportunities for students with less experience in quantitative and computational methods to develop skills and confidence

Offering supplementary workshops in quantitative social sciences to help students develop skills for success as research assistants and to prepare them for quantitative careers and job markets

Qualifications
A Master of Arts or Science (MA or MS), or equivalent, in Political Science, Sociology, Economics, Public Policy, Statistics, Data Science, or a related field is required; a PhD in one of these fields is preferred.

Familiarity with statistics/econometrics, causal inference methods, and preparing data for quantitative social science research is required. Familiarity with computational and simulation methods is a plus.

Programming expertise in R and Excel and ability to learn new technical skills are required. Expertise in Python, Matlab, GIS, and/or other related software is a plus.

Demonstrated excellence in inclusive and equitable teaching practices that support the success of students from diverse backgrounds and with varying levels of preparation in quantitative skills. We seek applicants who cultivate welcoming classroom environments and use pedagogical strategies that promote belonging, engagement, and academic growth for all students.

3112119

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Rodger Sherman @rodger.bsky.social · 02/04/2025

We simply had to intentionally destroy the world’s strongest economy while dismantling our scientific and educational infrastructure to ensure that a team with a trans girl would never finish second place in the Mountain West volleyball standings again

146232187077

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 01/04/2025

The issue with Gyokeres is that we're taking on two kinds of substantial risk. Performance risk - Will his production translate from Portugal? Will he elevate the side? Roster/Financial risk - If his first two years are poor, are we stuck with a 29-year-old on 200k per week for three more years?

000

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · 24/03/2025

this pic from the turkish protests goes insanely hard

man in a black jumpsuit, fez, and gas mask gestures in front of police

412832636

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Jameel Jaffer @jameeljaffer.bsky.social · 14/03/2025

I’m told this is a real letter. It basically says, “We’ll destroy Columbia unless you destroy it first.”

35956771812

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Its mainly people refusing to admit their own culpability, whether as Trump voters, as folks who spent years both sidesing him and fixating on shiny baubles like DEI, or as folks who lost their mind at the Biden administration. The truth is that WE FUCKED UP BIGLY and they played their part. End.

000

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

This phenomenon deserves its own name in which otherwise smart elites engage in all sorts of insane theorizing to rationalize what Trump is doing. DOGE is the disruptive force government needs. Trump is a savvy geopolitical strategist. Recessions are actually good. 1/

100

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Adam Bonica @adambonica.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

How many federal workers would DOGE need to fire to make up for Musk not paying his fair share of taxes? Answer: 677,000. That's 44% of the entire non-DoD federal workforce. Again, this power grab is not about the budget. It’s about politics.

Title: What Costs More: Billionaire Tax Avoidance or Federal Workers?
Subtitle: Musk’s tax avoidance could fund 677K federal jobs
• Current Tax Rate: 3.27%
• Top Federal Tax Rate: 37%

Cost Comparison (Bar Chart):
• Cost of Musk’s Tax Avoidance (smallest bar, purple)
• Cost of Top 100 Billionaires’ Tax Avoidance (largest bar, red)
• Total Federal Workforce Salaries (mid-sized bar, green)
X-axis ranges from $0B to $380B, showing that billionaire tax avoidance covers a significant portion of federal workforce salaries.

Impact on Federal Workforce:
• Average Federal Salary: $106,000
• Jobs Musk’s Avoidance Could Fund: 677,782 (29.5% of all federal employees)

Federal Workforce Breakdown (Pie Chart):
• A segment representing 29.5% of the workforce highlights the share Musk’s avoided taxes could fund, labeled “Share Equal to Musk’s Avoided Taxes: 29.5%”.

Sources:
• Musk’s Tax Rate: ProPublica
• Billionaire Gains: Bloomberg Billionaires Index (Dec. 31, 2024)
• Federal Employee Data: USAFacts

5932961699

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Congressman Greg Casar @repcasar.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

How much Elon Musk makes from the government a day: $8 million. How much a senior on Social Security gets a day: $65 Guess which budget Musk and Trump want to cut?

8582740911718

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

I'm as worried about Trump as anybody but "US is now less democratic than Russia or Ethiopia by our measures" seems like a bad take.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

Yup. And its both patrimonial and - as is becoming more and more apparent- highly ideological in a very very dark way. That combination is terrifying.

000

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

You joke but G Gordon Liddy actually did this inside the Nixon White House.

000

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 09/02/2025

And stripped from people like @markzaidesq.bsky.social at the same time.

110

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

Yup. I expect a very very bleak job market across the board. Universities will retrench and freeze hiring until they can assess the damage and figure out what to do.

0102

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 08/02/2025

This will blow up university budgets and one effect is that the job market will be very very bleak for a while.

000

Reposted by Sam Handlin

Brendel @brendelbored.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

Every one of these guys thinks they’re Oppenheimer mixed with Andrew Carnegie and they own something called SplortDotCom that got bought by Boozoo

332151042553

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 06/02/2025

Also a moron for thinking “buona sera” is some phrase in Italian when the Godfather is just saying the guy’s name (Bonasera).

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 05/02/2025

This is a longstanding pathology of left wing politics. Cafes in Santiago in 1972 were full of people who believed that Chile's constitutional democracy was just a facade erected by the bourgeoisie to prevent popular revolution. And a year later those people were getting thrown out of helicopters.

1807

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 02/02/2025

Exactly right. We’re seeing delegative democracy in action right now. And O’Donnell’s work on democracy in contexts without rule of law is also looking very pertinent.

030

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 31/01/2025

I would say that we are witnessing changes to rules and norms related to the exercise of power but not (yet) changes to those rules and norms related to access to power. That combination is familiar territory for Latin Americanists, delegative democracy makes it to the US.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 24/01/2025

We are so fucked. We let massive tech companies create society destroying products and hardly put up a fight.

000

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 21/01/2025

So many mainstream journalists got snowed into repeating the obviously farcical story that Trump's envoy made such grave threats that he got Netanyahu to fold. Netanyahu gave Trump a "win" and now Trump will turn a blind eye to the annexation of the WB and shrug when the war returns to Gaza.

030

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

The news of a deal in Gaza is an immense relief, first and foremost. It is convenient for both Trump and Bibi to claim that the former wielded sticks and forced the latter's hand. Far more likely is that Trump offered some awful carrots, like support for the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank.

000

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 15/01/2025

Biden deserves no credit but you are far too credulous in believing this story about Witkoff and Trump's threats. This is almost certainly a deal that was sealed with carrots - like support from Trump for ethnically cleansing the West Bank - not sticks.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Your location data going back years may now be in the hands of any random cybercrime syndicate willing to pay for it. Gravy Analytics claims to collect on 1b mobile devices daily and the hackers say they've been inside their systems since 2018.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 07/01/2025

Paul Fussell - The Great War and Modern Memory Modris Eksteins - Rites of Spring

081

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 06/01/2025

I agree with the caveat that it is often the case that descriptive aspects of such research projects - conceptual innovations, casting familiar phenomena in new light - are the most lasting, while the causal argument proves weak. This plays out over and over again in the Comparative Politics canon.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

It’s half a Halloween movie, but The Nightmare Before Christmas is so so good and loved by both my 6 and 13 year olds.

010

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 19/12/2024

We're going to need separate Milei and non-Milei categories but this thread should be a banger regardless.

020

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 18/12/2024

That appears to only aggregate numbers from select areas/agencies. Even with sharp declines the true number of total homicides must be way more than 5K for 2024.

220

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

Looks like a fascinating project!

010

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 17/12/2024

To be honest, the gap between the (self described) masculine group and other men seems far too small to merit that kind of narrative description of the data.

110

Sam Handlin @shandlin.bsky.social · 16/12/2024

Great thread. I would add that political coalitions behind backsliding are usually diverse, with individuals and groups possessing many different kinds of motivations for moving off the liberal democratic status quo. Its like a Rorschach test, and political scientists want to see certain things.

070