Sign in

San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn

@sfoskywarn.bsky.social
43 followers 45 following 23 posts

San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn is a group of trained weather spotter volunteers. Our website is sfoskywarn.org.

PostsRepliesMedia
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
As the California heatwave slowly fades, a fairly dramatic change in the pattern now appears increasingly likely over the coming weekend into next week. An early-season trough may "phase" with the remnants of Hurricane Rachel, drawing it more directly into SoCal. [Short thread]
214634
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Just did some number crunching using latest (Oct 1) ECMWF seasonal data, and I must say that I've never seen such high predictive confidence in a very wet California winter. This is a truly extraordinary forecast amid a record-strength El Niño event. [Thread: please read to end.]
Model-relative sea surface temperature anomalies for November 2026–January 2027. The supplied grid is displayed without added smoothing or coastal filling. Beige marks land and gray marks missing ocean values. The main colour scale spans -2 to +10°F, with white at zero. Hot pink marks anomalies above +10°F. This map does not establish an operational ENSO category.
16548224
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The past week of record fall heat across the West:
0153
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Typically, early October tides would be far from coastal flood thresholds, but an El Niño-spurred coastally trapped Kelvin wave moving up the West Coast is suppressing cold water from rising to the surface of the ocean. Water also rises as it warms, a phenomenon known as thermal expansion.
sfchronicle.com
S.F. Bay high tides will be at flood levels this weekend; El Niño-fueled wave of water may have reached city
El Niño-warmed seas are pushing tides unusually high in California, prompting the National Weather Service to issue a coastal flood advisory for San Francisco Bay and Monterey Bay.
13613
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Symmetrical warm-core tropical cyclones can transition to asymmetric cold-core storms while retaining tropical moisture, most commonly in September & October during El Niño. Models are converging onto this possibility with Hurricane Rachel. Main hazards: wind + waves = coastal flooding/erosion
0152
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday morning extended the forecast cone of an ongoing tropical cyclone — Hurricane Rachel — into California. The storm won’t be a hurricane by the time it nears CA this weekend, but it could still present hazards characteristic of a tropical cyclone.
sfchronicle.com
The National Hurricane Center just drew a forecast path for Rachel into California. Is the threat legit?
Strong winds, large waves and storm surge are possible in Orange and San Diego counties, with heavy rain and flash flooding possible in Los Angeles, Palm Springs, Las Vegas and Phoenix.
16531
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
There is already a moderate to high risk of rip currents in coastal Southern California from distant hurricane swell: www.sfchronicle.com/weather/arti...
sfchronicle.com
Southern California to be battered by another hurricane swell — raising risk of rip currents, erosion
Southern California is “playing with a similar setup” to Hurricane Marie, which caused destruction in Laguna Beach and Newport Beach in early September.
1153
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Symmetrical warm-core hurricanes can transition to messier “post-tropical” storms over the Southwest U.S. while retaining their tropical moisture. This process, known as extratropical transition, is most common in September and October during El Niño (Wood et al 2014).
Monthly count of all tropical cyclone genesis events (orange) and extratropical transition events (green) over the period 1971–2012.

Citation: Journal of Climate 27, 15; 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00645.1Composite monthly COBE SST (°C; shaded) and JRA-55 500-hPa geopotential height (m; contours) anomalies for (a) five years with June–October Niño-3 anomalies above 1°C (1972, 1976, 1982, 1987, and 1997) and (b) four years with June–October Niño-3 anomalies below −1°C (1973, 1988, 2007, and 2010). Tracks shown are from those TCs that completed ET in the given years. No TCs underwent ET during the years with anomalies below −1°C.

Citation: Journal of Climate 27, 15; 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00645.1
0123
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Sick of the heat? There’s big changes are in store for California’s weather this weekend. Even a hurricane is involved in the complex forecast shift:
sfchronicle.com
California heat wave to give way to sharp cooldown, possible Sierra snow
California’s exceptionally hot start to October will soon give way to a major change. Cooler weather is expected, but beyond that, things are uncertain.
5423
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect along the Pacific Coast and over the Monterey Bay through 9AM. If driving, slow down, use your low-beam headlights, leave plenty of distance ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your destination safely. #... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/21077652964…
032
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Greg Porter @gporterwx.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
The numbers!
1178
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Anthony Edwards @edwardsanthonyb.bsky.social · 07/10/2026
Bonkers: Sea levels are running 1.2ft above the late-20th century baseline in San Diego as sea surface temperatures are about 7°F warmer than normal. These highly anomalous ocean temperatures and heights will continue through winter along the California coast amid El Niño. #CAwx
421976
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
In case you missed it live, Tuesday's #ElNiño-focused virtual town hall event hosted by CA Sen Mike McGuire was recorded and is now available. This was a really constructive and worthwhile event; I'd strongly encourage folks to check it out! #CAwx
youtube.com
Super El Nino Town Hall
Join Senator McGuire, along with climate scientists, meteorologists, and disaster preparedness experts, for a virtual Super El Niño Town Hall to learn how California is preparing for very strong or “super” El Niño weather patterns and events this fall.
410332
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
On Mon, Aug 10 at 1pm PT, I'll host another livestream focused solely on El Niño. I'll offer a deep dive into El Niño's remarkable trajectory to date, the extraordinary latest forecasts, and additional thoughts on implications from California to global scales.
youtube.com
"Super" El Niño update: The latest regarding a potentially historic event and its implications - YouTube
The latest in a recurring series of live, virtual, & interactive #weather and #climate-focused "office hours" hosted by Dr. Daniel Swain. 08/10/2026 topic: E...
418561
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
The irony is that a record wet winter is certainly *possible,* and probably more likely than the background probability this year. But it's simply not a specific outcome that we can predict, as such, months in advance--"Super" El Niño or not.
11088
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
I'm seeing headlines, "citing" me, to effect of "California braces for wettest winter ever." To be clear: I have not claimed any such thing! Record strength El Niño? Quite possibly! But while that does shift odds in favor of wet winter, that's a far cry from "wettest ever."
1129755
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Everyone is at risk from the dangers of extreme heat, but these groups are more vulnerable than most. Ensure that your loved ones and neighbors are safe from the heat and remain #WeatherReady. weather.gov/safety/heat-during x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20858677961…
031
San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn @sfoskywarn.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
‘Super El Niño’ could bring wet winter and flooding to western US, climate scientists warn
Weather system tied to warming sea surface expected to intensify in fall and winter, persisting until early spring 2027
000
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 10 PM PDT Sunday for interior valleys and hills. Highs will range from the mid-90s up to 105°F, with warm overnight lows in higher elevations. Stay hydrated and take cooling breaks! ☀️🥤 #CAwx #BayA... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20861394455…
021
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
When outdoors in the heat, wear lightweight, loose-fitting, and light-colored clothing to reflect heat and sun. Hats are also a good idea to protect your face and scalp from harmful UV rays. Also, don’t forget to apply sunscreen liberally. htt... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20862791204…
042
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Winds are expected to strengthen through the weekend with the strongest winds tonight and Friday night through east-west passes, where localized wind gusts could exceed 60 mph. At lower elevations, expect sustained winds of around 15 mph with gu... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20702076410…
052
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
🌊Beach Hazards Statement issued beginning Saturday morning. Long-period S-SW swell will generate hazardous conditions including sneaker waves & strong rip currents. Stay back from the water’s edge, stay off of jetties & piers, & NEVER turn ... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20704208058…
011
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
During this period, elevated daytime & nighttime temperatures can be expected along entire West Coast except possibly for immediate NorCal coastline where are experiencing temporary reprieve from broader marine heatwave affecting NE Pacific Ocean. SoCal waters remain very warm.
Current sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly map from NOAA Coral Reef Watch. It depicts a broad and intense marine heatwave, characterized by much warmer than average ocean temperatures, across nearly the entire northeastern Pacific except along the immediate coast of California from about San Francisco northward.
1335
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Elevated fire weather conditions are likely across much of West due to building heat, dry airmass, & occasionally windy conditions as low pressure systems slide down east side of ridge. Highest risk in interior major drought areas, but even CA will see higher risk in coming days.
Map showing current US Drought Monitor status across Western U.S. It depicts widespread moderate to extreme drought, with patches of "exceptional" drought, except in California where little or no drought is indicated.
0305
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
As earlier noted, a significant West Coast heatwave will build in the coming days, persisting at least 7-10 days. A strong & at least somewhat persistent ridge will bring war-to-hot conditions West Coast wide. Heat will be most anomalous in PacNW, but will also be present in CA.
Surface temperature anomaly map showing predicted pattern in about 1 week from present (using data from the ECMWF ensemble). It shows a broad region of much above average temperatures across most of the U.S. West coast and points inland.500mb GPH anomaly map showing predicted pattern in about 1 week from present (using data from the ECMWF ensemble). It shows a large, broad, and persistent ridge centered in the Pacific Northwest.
511343
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
Hazardous Beach Conditions 9 am Tuesday to 9 am Wednesday. x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20590236621…
031
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
🚩🚩The ocean is not your friend today and tomorrow! Hazardous beach and marine conditions are expected as strong northerly winds generate rough seas and strong rip currents. Remember to always wear a life jacket and never turn your back on ... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20591792539…
022
San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn @sfoskywarn.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Weather spotters can use the #sfoskywarn channel on MeshCore for posting observations and sharing information. For more info about MeshCore, see MeshCore.io. In addition, NWS issued alerts (Watches, Advisories, Warnings) for the SF Bay Area are periodically posted on the #sfoskywarn channel.
meshcore.io
MeshCore - Official Site
Off-Grid, Encrypted, Mesh Communications
000
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Greg Porter @gporterwx.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Not too windy at the moment and not too warm either! Winds pick up this afternoon. Temperatures not so much. But at least its sunny
142
San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn @sfoskywarn.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
NWS Bay Area Storm Spotter Talk with Brayden Murdock Wednesday, May 27 · 5:00 – 7:00pm Time zone: America/Los_Angeles Google Meet joining info Video call link: meet.google.com/qro-kkfm-uox Or dial: ‪(US) +1 347-745-6002‬ PIN: ‪429 226 332‬# (2/2)
meet.google.com
Meet
Real-time meetings by Google. Using your browser, share your video, desktop, and presentations with teammates and customers.
100
San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn @sfoskywarn.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
There will be a webinar about the need for weather spotters. It will be held this coming Wednesday, 5-7pm PDT, by Meteorologist Brayden Murdock of the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Monterey, CA. (1/2)
meet.google.com
Meet
Real-time meetings by Google. Using your browser, share your video, desktop, and presentations with teammates and customers.
000
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
RT by @NWSBayArea: 🚨[VEGETATION FIRE] #MiddleFire 📍Location: Near Middle Ridge Road, Annapolis (Sonoma County) ⌚ Time of Dispatch: 7:03 a.m. | May 17, 2026 🔥 Initial Report on Conditions: Firefighters from CAL FIRE and the North Sonom... x.com/CALFIRELNU/status/20560203788…
132
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SUNDAY THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT MONDAY For The Santa Cruz Mountains, North Bay Interior Mountains, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, and East Bay Hills. North to NE winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Local g... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20559809711…
022
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
🫡 x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20558668627…
011
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Thinking of hitting the beach for sunset? Think again. Strong and gusty winds with gusts of 45-55 mph are generating hazardous beach conditions. Hazardous beach and marine conditions will continue through the weekend. @ALERTCalifornia #CAwx x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20558172302…
041
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
Plenty of reasons to stay weather aware this weekend: Strong winds, high tides, and dangerous surf #CAwx x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20556268534…
032
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
National Weather Service @nws.noaa.gov · 07/05/2026
Be prepared for hurricane season by knowing what to do during a storm. Whether you’ve evacuated or are sheltering in place, know what to expect from the hazards you may face. #HurricanePrep #HurricaneStrong noaa.gov/stay-protected-during-storms
Hurricane Preparedness - Stay Protected During Storms. Stay in your safe places from water and wind. Have a way to get weather alerts and forecast updates. Keep in mind that impacts can be felt far from the coast. Listen to local officials and avoid travel unless ordered to evacuate.
07521
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 06/05/2026
☁️➡️☀️What a difference 24 hours makes... yesterday at this time it was pretty gloomy and cloudy for the Bay Area and Central Coast. Today has mostly clear skies and warming temperatures -- apologies to Napa County for the lingering ... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20521130825…
141
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
The marine layer is 1,800 feet deep this morning. x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20523537399…
031
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
Paul Heggen @paulheggenwx.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Yesterday's and today's rain did not arrive in time to be factored into the latest US Drought Monitor data (which is collected every Tuesday). Thus, very little change with this week's update...hopefully some improvement next week! @wbtv.com #NCwx #SCwx
001
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
(2/2) Gutters should be cleaned out and loose outdoor items secured by Thursday. Impactful weather in the form of rain, wind, and even a slight chance for thunderstorms returns Sunday. Rainy and windy conditions are expected to continue into nex... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20012627209…
092
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
(1/2) Good early Wednesday morning! Light rain showers will move into the area from the north this morning, becoming isolated to scattered this afternoon. More light rain showers are expected tomorrow ahead of widespread beneficial rainfall Frid... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/20012627185…
0103
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
🚨Attention drivers and mariners! 🚨 Dense fog is being reported across the region. Follow the safety precautions in the images if you are unable to delay travel. #CAwx x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19998223005…
021
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the North Bay Interior Valleys, East Bay Interior Valleys through 11AM Saturday. Expect visibility less than 1/4 mile at times. x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19996986540…
094
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
🌧️A pattern change is expected through the weekend with chances for light rain across the middle of next week, followed by possible heavy rain for the following weekend! Our colleagues at the @NWSCPC have more info. Keep track of forecast u... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19996061120…
031
San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn @sfoskywarn.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
Although Skywarn Recognition Day (SRD) has been officially cancelled for 2025, this Saturday, December 6 from 0000-2359 UTC (4pm PST Friday Dec 5 through 3:59pm PST Saturday Dec 6), WX6MTR will be on the air participating in SRD in an unofficial capacity. sfoskywarn.org/2025/12/05/s...
sfoskywarn.org
Skywarn Recognition Day — WX6MTR will be on the air – San Francisco Bay Area SKYWARN®
000
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
🌫️Dense Fog Advisory for the East Bay interior valleys through 11 AM due to visibilities of 1/4 miles or less in patchy dense fog making driving hazardous. If driving, slow down, use your low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ah... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19969617436…
041
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Patchy dense fog is being reported in the inland valleys, including Santa Rosa and Hollister. Drivers: if you encounter dense fog, slow down, use low beam headlights, and keep extra space between you and the car in front! #CAwx x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19943801686…
011
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Unfortunately we have had a couple of incidents where people have been swept out to sea by hazardous surf conditions, including sneaker waves and rip currents, and died as a result. If your weekend plans involve a trip to the beach, NEVER turn y... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19943759487…
021
Reposted by San Francisco Bay Area Skywarn
NWS Bay Area Bot @nwsbayareabot.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
⚠️🌊Heads up! A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect now through 10 PM Sunday along the Pacific coast. There will be an increased risk for sneaker waves and rip currents with breaking waves between 13 to 18 feet expected. Never turn your b... x.com/NWSBayArea/status/19943696390…
021