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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Sparklehorse’s It’s A Wonderful Life album also has several songs that might qualify, especially the title track www.youtube.com/watch?v=meDC...

youtube.com

Sparklehorse – It's A Wonderful Life (Official Video)

YouTube video by Sparklehorse (Official)

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Here’s a track from a criminally underrecognized artist that I think might have the exact eerie undercurrent that you’re looking for www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMnn...

youtube.com

RY-GUY - Push Me In The Water / Dirty Like A River

YouTube video by RY-GUY

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"Le Chonk" @cdgoldstein.baseballprospectus.com · 02/08/2026

this is, imo, just a really good column from Rosenthal. It is honest about how things will be framed and how things actually are (in ways both dodgers supporters and detractors might not like). I just really appreciate the extra effort to provide context around how this will play in wider discourse:

nytimes.com

Tarik Skubal addition takes anti-Dodger hysteria to new heights as MLB lockout looms

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 02/05/2026

/to the tune of “Ice Ice Baby”: Way back Wasdin. Oh no! Oh no!

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Jayson Stark @jaysonst.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Did Jo Adell really have the greatest defensive game ever? In a Weird & Wild special, I went off in search of that answer. When my AI research friend basically made up 2 "legendary" games, I knew I was in trouble www.nytimes.com/athletic/718...

nytimes.com

Did Jo Adell really have the greatest defensive game in MLB history?

After a week of hearing Adell's home-run-stealing heroics might have been the greatest defensive game of all time, I decided I had to know.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

100% confident that I could get Shawn Bradley to leave by telling him he’s in a woke bookshop.

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Definitely. Same for the past decade. Was very easy to fill a ballot during the logjam in the 2010s before many of the writers who were reluctant to vote for PED era players lost their vote. This year’s ballot was weak in part because the current BBWAA has done a good job electing HoFers.

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I suggest instead that it’s because today’s BBWAA is much better at voting. Ballots have fewer ticks because worthy Hall of Famers no longer need to wait for election. Joe Mauer was elected on the first ballot and Posey might be too. But Gary Carter, Piazza, and Fisk had to wait 6, 4, and 2 years.

One interesting paradox that @jjcoop36.bsky.social highlighted: younger voters generally vote for more player than older voters, yet the average number of voters per ballot has decreased over time. J.J. asked if this pattern means that modern voters are too picky.

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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 03/02/2026

Was thinking of posting a voter breakdown like this, but @jjcoop36.bsky.social did a great job already. A must read if you’re interested in baseball Hall of Fame voting. Or gaining an insight into the pre/post/private voter demographics that inform my projection model.

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Here is the BBWAA ballot release: bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballo... Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.

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Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

new @fangraphs.com: Here it is, my rundown of the Hall of Fame election results as they pertain to all 27 candidates on this year's ballot.

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Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

new @fangraphs.com: my first look at tonight's Hall of Fame election results — record-setting gains, record-setting comebacks, and some key trends. I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

I did some analysis of voter trends for @jaysonst.bsky.social’s latest column including how much of Félix’s gain came from new voters or the “vote 10 no matter what” crowd. Would be fun to revisit that after the BBWAA ballot drop in two weeks. www.nytimes.com/athletic/698...

nytimes.com

Five things we learned from the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame election

Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have changed the landscape of modern Hall voting. But there is so much more to discuss about the results.

Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Reposted by Jason Sardell

Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.

A table showing that Jason Sardell had the lowest average error, median error, and root mean square error of Baseball Hall of Fame election forecasters in 2026.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Thanks. I rounded the 95% confidence intervals for readability and to avoid the illusion of unwarranted precision. And the only result you highlighted that doesn’t round to the nearest bound is Torii Hunter. Looks like the drops he received from public voters didn’t carry over.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 21/01/2026

Was a huge honor to assist Jayson with his annual column diving into the wild world of Hall of Fame election voting trends!

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Jayson Stark @jaysonst.bsky.social · 20/01/2026

Final Hall of Fame election results. 59 percent for Utley and almost a 26 percent jump for Felix!

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Congratulations Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones! Will be great to see them on stage with Jeff Kent this summer. And many thanks to all the BBWAA voters who shared their ballots this year and let us have our fun!

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For posterity, here are my final 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections. Thanks as ever to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social for all their hard work. Hall of Fame season wouldn’t really exist without them!

Table of Hall of Fame projections showing Carlos Beltrán as a sure thing and Andruw Jones being elected 97% of the time.

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Was prepping them when you posted that. They're live now.

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Jayson Stark @jaysonst.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Less than 24 hours to go until the results of this year's Baseball Hall of Fame election are revealed. If trends with public voters hold, we'll be welcoming two new members: Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. My latest projections with 223 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker.

Table of Baseball Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5%
Carlos Beltrán 82% 79% - 86% 100% 0%
Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 93% 0%
Chase Utley 59% 55% - 63% 0% 0%
Andy Pettitte 50% 46% - 54% 0% 0%
Félix Hernández 49% 45% - 53% 0% 0%
Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 44% 0% 0%
Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0%
Bobby Abreu 31% 29% - 35% 0% 0%
Cole Hamels 26% 23% - 30% 0% 0%
Jimmy Rollins 24% 22% - 26% 0% 0%
Dustin Pedroia 23% 21% - 26% 0% 0%
Mark Buehrle 20% 18% - 23% 0% 0%
David Wright 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0%
Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0%
Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0%
Torii Hunter 7% 5% - 9% 0% 5%
Ryan Braun 3% 2% - 5% 0% 97%
Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 4% 0% 99%
Nick Markakis 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9%
Rick Porcello 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% 99.9%
Shin-Soo Choo 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9%
Hunter Pence 0.5% 0.2% - 3% 0% >99.9%

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I believe I owe you this column every year. My annual Hall of Fame explanation. Not just how I voted but why. Some surprises. The player who tormented me for a week And thoughts on how dramatically it’s all about to change www.nytimes.com/athletic/697...

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

I suspect my model's projections are high on Utley as he's had a huge public/private split the past couple of years. My model anticipates that will start to shift this year but it may not. He should definitely finish well above 50% though, which still puts him in great shape for eventual election

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

Feel like a two person class this year would be very good for Buster Posey next year. Most voters don't want a shutout and he's the logical top candidate.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 15/01/2026

With 188 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's looking increasingly likely that we'll see two new members of the Baseball Hall of Fame next Tuesday. But it's possible Andruw Jones just misses out. My latest projections

Table listing Baseball Hall of Fame projections showing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, and % Simulations <5%
Carlos Beltrán 83% 79% - 87% >99.9% 0%
Andruw Jones 77% 74% - 81% 90% 0%
Chase Utley 60% 56% - 65% 0% 0%
Félix Hernández 51% 46% - 56% 0% 0%
Andy Pettitte 51% 46% - 55% 0% 0%
Álex Rodríguez 42% 40% - 46% 0% 0%
Manny Ramírez 39% 37% - 42% 0% 0%
Bobby Abreu 32% 29% - 36% 0% 0%
Cole Hamels 26% 22% - 31% 0% 0%
Jimmy Rollins 23% 21% - 27% 0% 0%
Dustin Pedroia 23% 20% - 27% 0% 0%
Mark Buehrle 20% 17% - 24% 0% 0%
Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 19% 0% 0%
David Wright 16% 14% - 20% 0% 0%
Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 17% 0% 0%
Torii Hunter 6% 4% - 8% 0% 30%
Ryan Braun 2% 1% - 6% 0% 96%
Edwin Encarnación 1% 0.5% - 5% 0% 98%
Nick Markakis 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 99%
Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 4% 0% 99%
Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 4% 0% 99%

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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 13/01/2026

Sorry. I'm sorry. I'm trying to delete it.

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It's not a perfect approach and there's room for improvement. I have some ideas to make next year's model better for example. But my projections have been pretty accurate since I started doing this in 2015 and offer a more realistic picture of where candidates will finish than the raw Tracker totals

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My model then 'unskews' the Tracker data to account for different demographics in early vs. late voters. It uses 2025 as a baseline, bins voters into categories, estimates the flip rates for each category based on this year's revealed ballots, and projects that onto the remaning voters.

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I talk a little bit about it in this thread without going into the details. My key assumption is that we can infer how remaining voters might behave based on how they voted last year. For example, we know how many remaining voters had Andruw Jones on their ballot last year. bsky.app/profile/sard...

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I expect my projections for Pettitte are a bit high because I don't consider voters' stances on pre-testing PED use in my current model. Honestly, it seemed like too much effort to build a custom model for a guy who's unlikely to ever be elected by the BBWAA. Perhaps next year if I have more time

I'd have to check which ballots were added since my last update, but I expect it's because a greater percent of Pettite's recent votes are coming from flips. The +1s he gained from 'small hall voters' like Tim Dahlberg and Jack Curry are particularly important.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 07/01/2026

With 148 ballots in @notmrtibbs.com's Tracker, it's very likely that Carlos Beltrán will be elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame by the BBWAA this year. Andruw Jones is currently on pace to join him and Jeff Kent in Cooperstown but his fans shouldn't take that for granted yet. My latest projections:

Table of Hall of Fame projections listing Median, 95% Confidence Interval, % Simulations >= 75%, % Simulations <5%
Carlos Beltrán 81% 76% - 86% 99.7% 0%
Andruw Jones 76% 73% - 80% 74% 0%
Chase Utley 57% 52% - 63% 0% 0%
Félix Hernández 51% 45% - 57% 0% 0%
Andy Pettitte 49% 44% - 54% 0% 0%
Álex Rodríguez 43% 40% - 47% 0% 0%
Manny Ramírez 40% 37% - 44% 0% 0%
Bobby Abreu 33% 29% - 38% 0% 0%
Cole Hamels 25% 21% - 31% 0% 0%
Dustin Pedroia 24% 21% - 29% 0% 0%
Jimmy Rollins 24% 21% - 28% 0% 0%
Mark Buehrle 18% 16% - 23% 0% 0%
David Wright 17% 15% - 22% 0% 0%
Omar Vizquel 17% 15% - 20% 0% 0%
Francisco Rodríguez 14% 12% - 18% 0% 0%
Torii Hunter 5% 3% - 8% 0% 50%
Ryan Braun 3% 1% - 8% 0% 82%
Edwin Encarnación 2% 0.5% - 7% 0% 90%
Shin-Soo Choo 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 96%
Hunter Pence 1% 0.2% - 6% 0% 96%

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A true masterpiece. Trolling now by submitting this in lieu of a blank ballot. And next year he’ll troll Sox fans by dropping Pedroia. Respect to the King.

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Peter Abraham @peteabeglobe.bsky.social · 05/01/2026

For @notmrtibbs.com and others with any interest: The Globe's Hall of Fame votes will be published on Wednesday morning on BostonGlobe.com. There are six of us: me, Chad Finn, Dan Shaughnessy, Mike Silverman, Alex Speier, and Tara Sullivan.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

In part, but the good news for Félix is that he's also successfully flipped 17% (5/30) of 'Small Hall' voters this year. Bodes well for his future chances of election as players need to get support from that cohort to top 75%.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

That's one of the key features in my model: recognizing that flip rates tend to be highest among 'large hall' voters and lowest for 'small hall voters' and recognizing that the former are over-represented and the latter under-represented in public ballots at this stage of the season.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 04/01/2026

It seems a lot of voters have picked this year to reevaluate the way they judge 21st century starting pitchers. Has benefited Félix as well as Pettitte and Hamels. But it also helps that the ballot is weak this year as a lot of his new votes are coming from voters who want to max out their ballot.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Félix has a much greater flip percentage than Utley but he's starting at a much lower 2025 baseline, which is why he's also below Utley in the raw Tracker totals. Notably, Félix is picking up a lot of +1s from 'Large Hall' voters who already voted for Utley last year.

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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 03/01/2026

Interquartile range is interesting too, but I worry than many readers would misinterpret it as the overall uncertainty in the projection, and not appreciate that 50% of the projections fell outside that range.