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Ryan Thibodaux

@notmrtibbs.com
18K followers 498 following 1K posts

Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker with @tonycal.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social Tracker: tracker.fyi

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Adam Darowski @adarowski.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Legendary Venezuelan sportswriter Juan Vené has passed away at the age of 97. He never stopped working. Just a few days ago, I emailed him (for the first time) about his wonderful piece on Robert Marcano and how his work has helped me so much lately. I’m glad I sent it.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 15/03/2026
Very saddened to see the news that Carl Steward (@stewardsfolly.bsky.social) passed away. RIP to a Bay Area great.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 03/02/2026
Here is the BBWAA ballot release: bbwaa.com/26-hof-ballo... Looks like about 100 ballots that will be new to the Tracker. We'll have them in the Tracker later this afternoon.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 29/01/2026
RIP Dan. 😢 defector.com/a-baseball-h...
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Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
Wrapping up my 2026 Hall of Fame election coverage with a look at the next 5 upcoming classes and the dynamics in play. This time around, I audited my admittedly-spotty performance in this endeavor going back to 2019 (my first one at @fangraphs.com; began doing this iat SI.com in 2014)
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Jayson Stark @jaysonst.bsky.social · 26/01/2026
New from me: I answered your Hall of Fame questions Pettitte vs Bonds/Clemens Hamels vs Felix Rollins vs Abreu Schilling, Whitaker & 3 more players we've whiffed on The All One-Vote-for-the-HOF team And lots more! www.nytimes.com/athletic/699...
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 24/01/2026
Chase Utley ended the pre-results portion of ballot season at 69.0%. We've added 15 post-results ballots since then and Utley has been on 13 of them! With 260 ballots tracked, Utley sits at 70.0%. Utley has *never* been at 70% in the Tracker (min. 10 ballots) until a few minutes ago.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 23/01/2026
Good lede, in my opinion. apnews.com/article/hall...
apnews.com
Carlos Beltrán's wife intently followed Hall of Fame vote-tracker
Carlos Beltrán's wife closely followed the Hall of Fame vote-tracker, celebrating each gain. Beltrán received 84.2% of the votes from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, surpassing the 75% n...
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National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum @baseballhall.org · 22/01/2026
Center stage with our newest Hall of Famers.
Carlos Beltrán, left, and Andruw Jones pose in Hall of Fame caps and jerseys at the site of their future plaques. (Nancy Ford/National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum)
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Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
new @fangraphs.com: Here it is, my rundown of the Hall of Fame election results as they pertain to all 27 candidates on this year's ballot.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 21/01/2026
Every year, @noahtrister.bsky.social is the only reporter who asks to chat with me *after* the results are announced. Here's his look ahead to the 2027 cycle: apnews.com/article/hall...
apnews.com
Buster Posey takes center stage among the newcomers for next year's Hall of Fame ballot
Buster Posey is expected to be the top newcomer on baseball's 2027 Hall of Fame ballot. There are no first-ballot inductees this year after the results were announced Tuesday night.
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Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Congrats to @sardell.bsky.social, who once again had the most accurate #HOF projections this year! However, @mwwdean.bsky.social and @shutthedore.bsky.social's Flip Rate model also had very good years.
A table showing that Jason Sardell had the lowest average error, median error, and root mean square error of Baseball Hall of Fame election forecasters in 2026.
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Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
new @fangraphs.com: my first look at tonight's Hall of Fame election results — record-setting gains, record-setting comebacks, and some key trends. I'll go candidate-by-candidate in my next installment.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 21/01/2026
@jimalexander24.bsky.social You know I won't be able to rest until your post-results ballot is safely accounted for.
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Jayson Stark @jaysonst.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
New from me: 5 Things We Learned from the Hall of Fame election www.nytimes.com/athletic/698...
nytimes.com
Five things we learned from the 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame election
Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have changed the landscape of modern Hall of Fame voting. But there is so much more to discuss.
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Jerry Beach @jerrybeach73.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Carlos Beltran on trying not to think too much about his HOF chance the last few weeks: "Let me tell you, my wife Jessica, she spent hours and time trying to basically stay in contact with the Hall of Fame baseball tracker." CC: @notmrtibbs.com @tonycal.bsky.social @shutthedore.bsky.social
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 21/01/2026
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
This will need to be updated. Félix ties Aparicio for biggest all-time year over year gain (we'll have to dive into the decimal places to see who's actually #1). Utley and Pettitte also join the list.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Full voting results per the BBWAA:
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
We finish at 245 pre-results ballots. Thank you for following!
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Anthony Calamis @tonycal.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #245 is from Anthony McCarron, via SNY’s Baseball Night in NY. He votes again for his seven holdovers, with no changes. Carlos Beltrán ends the pre portion of the program at 89.8%, Andruw Jones at 83.3%. In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Ballot 245 from Anthony McCarron: Beltrán, Félix, Andruw, Pedroia, Pettitte, Utley, Wright
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #244 is from John Harper, live on SNY’s Baseball Night in New York. He selects Beltrán, Jones, and Pettitte. No adds or drops for returning candidates and no first-timers selected In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
John Harper HOF Ballot (3): Beltrán, Jones, Pettitte
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Almost time 👇
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Jason Sardell @sardell.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
For posterity, here are my final 2026 Baseball Hall of Fame projections. Thanks as ever to @notmrtibbs.com, @shutthedore.bsky.social, and @tonycal.bsky.social for all their hard work. Hall of Fame season wouldn’t really exist without them!
Table of Hall of Fame projections showing Carlos Beltrán as a sure thing and Andruw Jones being elected 97% of the time.
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Matt Dean @mwwdean.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Final projection for tonight. Excited to see who joins the HOF! @notmrtibbs.com @shutthedore.bsky.social @tonycal.bsky.social @baseballot.bsky.social
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Update at 243 ballots. Less than a half hour to go. We think we'll have our usual final two ballots from SNY right at the top of the hour. Anything else...?
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Anthony Calamis @tonycal.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #243 is from Bob Nightengale. He again votes for his three holdovers - Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, and Omar Vizquel - with no adds, drops, or first-timers selected. In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Ballot 243 from Bob Nightengale: Beltrán, Andruw, Vizquel
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Phenomenal interview with Jeff Kent by Verducci. Make sure to check it out if you weren't watching.
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
The Hall of Fame results announcement will be streamed live here via MLB Network in just over 90 minutes: www.mlb.com/video/live-2...
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
At 242 ballots:
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #242 is from Tom Verducci, revealed moments ago on MLB Network’s pre-announcement special. After voting for Wagner, CC, Ichiro and Beltrán last year, he adds Jones (+16), Rollins (+17), and Utley (+26) Current %: Beltrán 89.7 Jones 83.1 Utley 69.4 Rollins 27.3 In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Tom Verducci HOF Ballot (4): Beltrán, Jones(+1), Rollins(+1), Utley(+1)
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Ballot #241 is from John Shea. Holdovers Andruw Jones and Jimmy Rollins get carried over and are joined by Andy Pettitte (now +37) and Chase Utley (+25). Shea's column on his ballot will be published in the coming days at the San Francisco Standard. In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
John Shea's HOF ballot: Andruw, Pettitte (+1), Rollins, Utley (+1)
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Two hours to go, so time to say thank you to the two guys who make this ballot tracking project possible: @shutthedore.bsky.social and @tonycal.bsky.social. I could not and would not want to do this without them. Thanks for all your continued excellent work, Adam and Anthony!
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Anthony Calamis @tonycal.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #240 is from Ryan Fagan. Félix gains again for his 50th add (net +49). Hamels gets a vote & is at 31.7%. This is the 3rd time (1st since ‘18) with 240 pre ballots. Félix now t-9th ever in full cycle net gain & 2nd pre-announce. His column: theanalyst.com/articles/bas... Tracker: tracker.fyi
Ballot 240 from Ryan Fagan: Abreu, Beltrán, Buehrle, Hamels, Félix, Andruw, Pettitte, Manny, UtleyFélix displaying tied for 9th in all-time net gain with +49Félix displaying alone in 2nd place for pre-announce net gain at +49
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Ballot #240!
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
A ballot column from first-time voter @dszymborski.fangraphs.com (his ballot was first revealed and tracked December 8th): blogs.fangraphs.com/filling-out-...
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
After 239 ballots (and perhaps the busiest 45 minutes in Tracker history):
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #239 is from Joe Smith. He selects seven holdovers following the election of three candidates from his group of ten last year. No adds, drops, or first-year candidates selected In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Joe Smith HOF Ballot (7): Beltrán, Jones, Pettitte, Manny, A-Rod, Rollins, Utley
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #238 is from Jon Meoli, our 37th first-time voter. He selects ten candidates. Beltrán remains perfect here, while Jones is at 91.9%, Utley 83.8%, Félix 75.7% and Pettitte 70.7% Meoli’s column: www.thebanner.com/sports/oriol... In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Jon Meoli HOF Ballot (10): Abreu, Beltrán, Hamels, Félix, Jones, Pedroia, Pettitte, Manny, A-Rod, Utley
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Ballot #237 is from Tom Haudricourt. Four of his holdover make it back to his 2026 ballot, but Pedroia is dropped and falls to net +21. Carlos Beltrán inches closer to 90%. In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Tom Haudricourt's HOF ballot: Beltrán, Andruw, K-Rod, Utley. 
Pedrioa dropped.
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Anthony Calamis @tonycal.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #235 is from Troy Renck. Chase Utley joins holdovers Beltrán, Jones, and Rollins. He moves to +24 and sits at 68.5% overall in his third year of eligibility. In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Ballot 235 from Troy Renck: Beltrán, Andruw, Rollins, and Utley add to +24
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #234 is from Randy Miller. Beltrán (+13) and Pettitte (+36) both gain votes, however, Andruw Jones suffers his first drop and falls back to +15. He sits at 82.5% In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Randy Miller HOF Ballot (6): Beltrán(+1), Pettitte(+1), Rollins, Utley, Vizquel, Wright
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
This is ballot #235 (we have ballot #234 coming very soon for you too).
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #233 is from Rob Bradford. Seven holdovers are joined by King Félix, who gains yet again and improves to +48. He is now tied with 2019 Larry Walker for second place on the pre-announcement net gains leaderboard Bradford’s reveal: x.com/bradfo/statu... In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Rob Bradford HOF Ballot (8): Beltrán, Félix(+1), Jones, Pedroia, Pettitte, Manny, A-Rod, UtleyPre-Announcement Net Gainzzzz
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
At 232 ballots:
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Jay Jaffe @jayjaffe.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
new @fangraphs.com: for the 3rd year in a row we had record-level participation in our Hall of Fame crowdsource balloting. here's a look at how our readers voted, how it stacks up with what's in the @notmrtibbs.com Tracker, and what to expect when the results are announced this evening
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Ballot #232 is from the 2026 BBWAA Career Excellence Award winner Paul Hoynes. Along with 7 holdovers, Hoynes adds Hamels in his first year of eligibility along with Félix (+47) and Rollins (+16). Via the Cleveland Baseball Talk Pod: www.cleveland.com/guardians/20... In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Paul Hoynes' HOF Ballot: Beltrán, Buehrle, Hamels, Félix (+1), Torii, Andruw, Pedroia, K-Rod, Rollins (+1), Vizquel
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Anthony Calamis @tonycal.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #231 is from a voter who wishes to remain anonymous. As always, we are unable to report on adds or drops, if any, on anonymous ballots. Beltrán and Jones are at 76.9% with anonymous voters. In the Tracker: tracker.fyi
Ballot 231 from an anonymous voter: Beltrán, Félix, Andruw, Pedroia, Pettitte, K-Rod, Rollins, Utley, Wright
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Ryan Thibodaux @notmrtibbs.com · 20/01/2026
Net gained votes through 230 ballots (~54.2% of the vote): Félix +46 Pettitte +35 Utley +23 Pedroia +22 Abreu +18 Andruw +16 Rollins +15 Wright +14 Beltrán +12 Buehrle +12 A-Rod +10 K-Rod +8 Manny +7 Hunter +5 Vizquel +3
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Adam Dore @shutthedore.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Ballot #230 is from Joe Posnanski. Six of his seven holdovers earn his vote once again, with Wright (net +14) losing a vote. Hamels climbs to 31.3% while each of Abreu (+18), Pedroia (+22), and Pettitte (+35) gain support Via JoeBlogs: www.joeposnanski.com/p/its-hall-o... Tracker: tracker.fyi
Joe Posnanski HOF Ballot (10): Abreu(+1), Beltrán, Hamels, Félix, Jones, Pedroia(+1), Pettitte(+1), Manny, A-Rod, Utley

Dropped: Wright
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