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Sarah Bauerle Danzman

@sarahbauerled.bsky.social
5.8K followers 399 following 505 posts

Associate Professor, Hamilton Lugar School at Indiana University/ Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council/Scholarly research, writing, teaching, & policy analysis at the intersection of national security & international political economy/ CFIUS&Tech Controls

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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Always a good use of time to read @hbanai.bsky.social , especially when he’s writing about Iran. Clear, incisive analysis of why the U.S. and Israeli goals in this war of choice are incompatible.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
A 70% brokerage fee seems akin to extortion: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
nytimes.com
TikTok Investors Set to Pay $10 Billion Fee to Trump Administration
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Gulf State sovereign wealth funds are reportedly contributing $24 billion in cash toward the Ellison’s acquisition of Time Warner. It will be interesting to see if/how the war affects the status of these funds.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Greenland is rushing to create investment screening mechanism to block U.S. investors from buying up real estate: www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wary-us-inve...
globalbankingandfinance.com
Wary of US investors, Greenland lawmakers push to pass foreign investment screening law
COPENHAGEN, Feb 26 (Reuters) - A surge in property interest from U.S. buyers in Nuuk early last year prompted lawmakers to rush through curbs on...
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
hedgeofstate.substack.com/p/farce-agai...
hedgeofstate.substack.com
Farce, Again?
Some preliminary thoughts on the US-Israeli strikes on Iran
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Hoosiers beat Oregon 72-65 in a thrilling ending on senior day.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
It's almost like we overlearned the lesson of dollar hegemony because we don't understand how network topography works - www.ft.com/content/8017...
European indices are crushing the S&P 500
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Can someone please explain to my why France is hovering up so much cross-border data center investment?
UNCTAD data on FDI in 2025 shows that France received USD 69 B in data center investments. The US received 29B, Korea received 21 B.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Noah is correct here. The ACI was first developed as a response to Trump 1.0. The timing of its passage gave the impression that it was a response to China’s economic coercion attempts of Lithuania. However, we all know EU can’t push through regs that fast!
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Sam Brazys @sbrazys-ucd.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Already some excellent submissions in for #PEADS2026 from May 22-23 at Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy. Don't have yours in yet? Don't worry there's still time - deadline January 30th! Please "re-sky" to spread the word!
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
COSCO attempting to buy up an inland transport logistics company in Germany. Watching with interest: trans.info/en/cosco-ham...
trans.info
COSCO plans takeover of Hamburg hinterland logistics company
COSCO plans takeover of Hamburg hinterland logistics company
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Do not accept the foundational lie of the dictator. Do not accept that he and his agents have the right to exact violent repression on citizens. Embrace the idea that the state exists to serve its citizens, not the other way around.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Japan might be amending it's investment screening mechanism to develop a CFIUS-style inter-agency review structure: www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/...
www3.nhk.or.jp
Japan govt. panel urges tighter foreign investment screening | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
A Japanese Finance Ministry panel has recommended a legal revision to tighten screening of inward foreign investments. The panel says the amendment is needed to adapt to a change in the security envir...
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
I know everyone is talking about Venezuela (as they should), but also, the Trump Administration used CFIUS authorities to require another Chinese investor to divest from a semiconductor company: home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
Statement on the President’s Decision Ordering the Divestment of Interests in Certain Assets of EMCORE Corporation by HieFo Corporation
WASHINGTON — Today, President Trump published an order ordering the divestment by HieFo Corporation (“HieFo”), a Delaware corporation and foreign person of certain assets of EMCORE Corporation (“EMCORE”), a New Jersey corporation.  The assets that were the subject of the transaction comprised EMCORE’s digital chips and related wafer design, fabrication, and processing business, including a semiconductor manufacturing facility (the “EMCORE Digital Chips Business”).    The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS” or the “Committee”) reviewed and investigated this transaction pursuant to Section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended (“Section 721”). CFIUS identified a national security risk arising from the transaction relating to potential access to EMCORE’s intellectual property, proprietary know-how, and expertise and to the potential diversion of supply of indium phosphide chips manufactured by the EMCORE Digital Chips Business away from the United States.  To address this risk, the President’s order directs HieFo to divest all interests and rights in the EMCORE Digital Chips Business.    HieFo did not file the transaction with CFIUS until after CFIUS’s non-notified team investigated the transaction.  CFIUS’s non-notified function has been enhanced by authorities provided by Congress in FIRRMA and ongoing appropriations to support the Committee’s ability to identify and review non-notified transactions.  Parties to transactions should carefully consider whether or not any transaction they may be undertaking may be subject to CFIUS jurisdiction, including whether or not the transaction has a potential nexus to U.S. national security. The CFIUS process focuses exclusively on identifying and addressing national security risks arising from a covered transaction.  CFIUS's risk analysis involves consideration of the potential threat, vulnerability, and consequence of any given transaction.  CFIUS reviews each transaction on a case-by-case basis and considers the specific facts and circumstances relating to that transaction.  As such, the disposition of each CFIUS case is reflective only of CFIUS’s analysis of that specific transaction and not indicative of a general position on the transaction parties, countries, or industries involved.  CFIUS’s mandate to conduct case-by-case reviews is reflective of the U.S. Government’s commitment to maintaining its open investment policy while protecting U.S. national security. View a copy of the President’s order. ABOUT CFIUS CFIUS is an interagency committee authorized to review certain transactions involving foreign investment in the United States and certain real estate transactions by foreign persons, in order to determine the effect of such transactions on the national security of the United States.  CFIUS is chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury and includes as members the Secretaries of State, Defense, Commerce, Energy, and Homeland Security, the Attorney General, the Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the U.S. Trade Representative.  The Director of National Intelligence and the Secretary of Labor participate as non-voting, ex-officio members, and the Secretary of the Department of Agriculture is a member when a case involves elements of the agricultural industrial base that have implications for food security.   Treasury’s Office of Investment Security leads CFIUS’s efforts to identify transactions where no voluntary notice has been filed under section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended. If CFIUS determines that a non-notified transaction may be a covered transaction or covered real estate transaction and may raise national security considerations, the Committee may contact the transaction parties and request a CFIUS filing.  Members of the public may contact Treasury with any tips, referrals, or voluntary self-disclosures at CFIUS.tips@treasury.gov.  ####
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
“The humanities are always in crisis. I no longer believe this is an institutional matter – it’s in the nature of intellectual life, or of thought itself. Thinking is always in crisis.”
The book jacket to What We Can know by Ian McEwan
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
What is striking about this graph is how little consumption contributed to growth in 2025 and how much decline in imports did. Consumption grew in q4, but for the year was lack luster. Additionally, the top 10% account for 50% consumption. This indicates substantial structural weakness
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Good to see the Trump administration waking up to the importance of battery supply chain integrity www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/c...
nytimes.com
The Pentagon and A.I. Giants Have a Weakness. Both Need China’s Batteries, Badly.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
More please.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Always love contributing to Atlantic Council's By the Numbers Series. Thanks to Josh Lipsky and Kimberly Donovan's steady leadership through disorienting times. And to the amazing staff & NRSF at the center. I am fortunate to work with and learn from you all: www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/b...
atlanticcouncil.org
By the numbers: The global economy in 2025
Our GeoEconomics Center experts break down the numbers and data points that defined the global economy in 2025.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I’m not sure this framing is entirely fair, but it is certainly true that CFIUS provides the executive with enormous discretion, which can be used for legitimate public interest or for cronyism. And, again, the least corrupt divestment pathway was an IPO rather than brokered sale.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I'm calling it - favorite album of 2025 is Bleeds by Wednesday. Here's a taste: open.spotify.com/track/5ksAxc...
open.spotify.com
Phish Pepsi
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Is this the final chapter in the TikTok saga? What valuation does the deal put TikTok USA at? What are the data safeguards? How will owners manage the algorithm? I’m a broken record, but divestment should have happened through IPO. www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/dig...
hollywoodreporter.com
TikTok U.S. Deal to Close Next Month: Oracle and Silver Lake Confirmed in Buyer Consortium
Abu Dhabi's state investment fund will also be a managing investor.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
media.tenor.com
a woman is covering her mouth with her hand in a field .
Alt: Katniss Everdeen in a field giving a salute to the cameras.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Outbound investment program now based in law (rather than EO). Analysis forthcoming (must finish grading first).
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Jim Goldgeier @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
“it's vastly, vastly easier to destroy an institution than to create it” dailytarheel.com/article/univ...
dailytarheel.com
UNC cuts all six area studies research centers, effective 2026
As part of the University's plan to make $70 million in budget cuts across the institution, Vice Chancellor for Finance and Operations Nate Knuffman projected that cutting 14 centers and institutes in...
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John Bisognano @johnbisognano.com · 12/12/2025
This should be the biggest story in the country right now. The sitting US President was extorting state lawmakers from his own party by threatening to withhold public money if they didn’t gerrymander for him. I don’t know how else to say it…
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John Bisognano @johnbisognano.com · 12/12/2025
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Will be watching how the Damocles hammer of CFIUS review affects the Netflix v Paramount war for Warner Bros: deadline.com/2025/12/demo...
deadline.com
Democratic Lawmakers Warn Warner Bros. Discovery Of National Security Concerns In Paramount Bid Because Of Saudi And Other Foreign Investors
The two House members said that the transaction should undergo a Committee on Foreign Investment review.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
#EU #investmentscreening regulation about to be updated, will likely either encourage or require member states screen #greenfield, a major step up in coverage: www.fdiintelligence.com/content/041f...
fdiintelligence.com
Countdown to new EU FDI regulation enters final stretch
No commission veto powers, but rules on greenfield and critical sectors are ‘open game’
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
The news that the Trump administration is allowing #Nvidia chips to China is another indication that the deal makers are winning against the China Hawks. I anticipated this in my recent JIEL article, where a focus on tech competition is giving way to expansionary mercantilism/domination.
Table 1. Investment and technology policy developments under three administrations
Central tools Illustrative actions Strategy/goal
Ordering
implications
Trump
1.0
FIRRMA
ECRA & Emerging & Founda-
tional Technology List
Entity listings
EO 13959 (CMIC)
Foreign Direct Product Rules
Huawei entity
listing and de
minimis rulea
ZTE listing and
dealb
renegotiationc
Weaponization;
Extraterritoriality
State of
exception in
the context
of rules-
based order
Biden EO 14083 (CFIUS guidance)
EO 14105 (Outbound Investment
Regulation)
China Semiconductor Export
Controls
CHIPS & Science
BIS Rules (167)d
Export controls
on advanced
semiconductors
Connected vehicle
regulation
Technological
supremacy,
resilience, and
competitiveness
Embedded,
securitized
liberalism
Trump
2.0
America First Investment Policy
Memorandume
Restrict outbound portfolio flows
Restrict inbound non-passive
investment from China
Encouragement of inbound
passive investment
‘Fast-track’ inbound control
investment from friendly countries
Saudif and
Emiratig invest-
ment pledges
Golden Visash
Domination Expansionary
Mercant
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Excited to share the launch of the CELIS × Law & Geoeconomics Blog Series, which translates scholarship published in L&G to policy audiences Read the introductory post: www.celis.institute/celis-blog/i... #Geoeconomics #EconomicSecurity #ForeignInvestment #GlobalGovernance #CELIS #LawAndGeoeconomics
celis.institute
Introducing the CELIS L&G blogseries
Welcome to the inaugural blog post of a new collaboration between the academic journal Law & Geoeconomics (L&G) and the CELIS Institute!
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 27/11/2025
Why yes, I did start my Thanksgiving by completing a reviewer request. And, yes, I did suggest only a very minor revision. The vibes are good, people.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
Connected items are vulnerable to intrusion. We’ve known this for a long time. What’s more interesting is how threat perceptions have changed so drastically. www.wsj.com/business/can...
wsj.com
Can Chinese-Made Buses Be Hacked? Norway Drove One Down a Mine to Find Out
The growing prevalence of Chinese technology in Europe’s infrastructure is stoking security concerns across the region.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
JOHN MULANEY was in the IEEPA oral argument?
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BeijingPalmer @beijingpalmer.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
this is the most successful a CIA officer has been at toppling a government in years.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
The only strategic impulse is to amass personal power.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 03/11/2025
Very excited for @oecd-ocde.bsky.social Investment Days and investment security side events, starting tomorrow
Me, standing at Concord Place, with the Champs Elysees and Arc de triomphe in the backgroundA view toward the Louvre
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
Wonderful to host, with Law & Geoeconomics and CELIS, an interdisciplinary scholarly workshop on economic security. Great papers and conversations in beautiful Berlin. And always a good day when hanging with my co-author @sophielmeunier.bsky.social
A bunch of academicsMe and Sophie
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 22/10/2025
Airbus to open a second assembly line in China with limited fanfare this week, days after securing an extra foothold in the United States as it walks a tightrope between divided trade powers
reuters.com
Airbus to inaugurate new China assembly line as treads trade tightrope
Airbus is poised to open a second assembly line in China with limited fanfare this week, days after securing an extra foothold in the United States as it walks a tightrope between divided trade powers, industry sources said.
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Huss/ein Banai @hbanai.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
Read this smart article by my brilliant colleague @sarahbauerled.bsky.social
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CSIS Japan Chair @japan.csis.org · 19/10/2025
Join @kristigovella.bsky.social @@sarahbauerled.bsky.social, Michael Beeman, Kay Shimizu and Shujiro Urata on 10/29 for a virtual event about Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel and the broader lessons that might be drawn from it. Register here: bit.ly/3Jbihdl
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CSIS Japan Chair @japan.csis.org · 14/10/2025
Join @kristigovella.bsky.social @@sarahbauerled.bsky.socialMichael Beeman, Kay Shimizu and Shujiro Urata on 10/29 for a virtual event about Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel and the broader lessons that might be drawn for it. Register here: bit.ly/3Jbihdl
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
This is a big deal. Congrats to Zurich.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Really proud of this article, and happy to have it placed in @ejir.bsky.social.
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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Today, a Republican administration has reactivated the Exchange Stabilization Fund as a bailout fund on behalf of Argentina to a tune of $20 bn. 30 years ago, it was a Republican-led Congress that acted to restrict the president's ability to use the ESF for this very purpose. 1/
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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
"The latest figures show that the value of U.S. Treasuries held at the New York Fed on behalf of foreign central banks is $2.78 trillion. That's the lowest since August 2012, and down $130 billion in just two months." Story: www.reuters.com/markets/us/g...
reuters.com
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 04/10/2025
If the admin’s proposed TikTok deal goes through, providing ownership and control over a major social media platform, these concerns only further amplify. TikTok US needs an IPO, not a crony deal. And, US businesses need to wake up that their interest lies in being able to be global companies.
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Tom Pepinsky @tompepinsky.com · 01/10/2025
If you think about politics in these times as fundamentally about building a new kind of social order, rather than rejiggering institutions or party platforms in order to deliver someone’s more favored policy outcomes, contemporary politics makes a lot more sense. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
State, Society, and the Politics of Democratic Backsliding
Recent scholarship on democratic backsliding has focused on measuring its global prevalence and identifying the causal processes and mechanisms that produce or
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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Ahead of tomorrow's @atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Transatlantic Forum, I argue that political forces, rather than economic fundamentals, will determine the future direction of the international currency system. Link below. www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res...
atlanticcouncil.org
How to dismantle a reserve currency
For the economic tumult that the dollar has faced over the last eighty years, its political foundations have remained steadfast—until now. As the political order on which the dollar system rests grows...
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
🎯 you all are depressing me with your insistence on proving Ezra’s core thesis (the left has given up the politics of persuasion and coalition building) so tragically correct. Henry is spot on.
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