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Sarah Bauerle Danzman

@sarahbauerled.bsky.social
5.8K followers 399 following 505 posts

Associate Professor, Hamilton Lugar School at Indiana University/ Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council/Scholarly research, writing, teaching, & policy analysis at the intersection of national security & international political economy/ CFIUS&Tech Controls

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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Always a good use of time to read @hbanai.bsky.social , especially when he’s writing about Iran. Clear, incisive analysis of why the U.S. and Israeli goals in this war of choice are incompatible.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
In the US case, it used to be the case that people who didn’t vote were more likely to hold Dem leaning preferences. Now, it’s not clear if that holds. And, I do not know the ideological affinities of nonvoters in other countries.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Thanks for the question. While I am a political scientist, voting behavior is not my specialty. However, my understanding from the literature is that the 20-30% figure comes from voting behavior. So, that rolls in participation. It’s harder to know what “true” population preferences are but …
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I don’t understand why you are being so aggressively rude. Cordon sanitaire is a well known term, and it comes up every French election cycle bc RN gets very close. Anyway, have a great rest of your day!
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
I am pointing out that there are tradeoffs across different electoral systems and that the threat of fascist parties is present in both. It’s not a value judgment, and it is in line with how comparative politics scholars understand processes of democratic erosion/backsliding
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
Bc the electorate for far right parties is ~20-30%, far right parties can win sizable minorities in multiparty systems, becoming important in coalitions. In 2party systems, the far right has to capture the whole of the right party. I’m not sure why you find this controversial, but happy to learn.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 15/03/2026
And multiparty systems can be more susceptible to fascism if they don’t have a robust cordon sanitaire
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
A 70% brokerage fee seems akin to extortion: www.nytimes.com/2026/03/13/b...
nytimes.com
TikTok Investors Set to Pay $10 Billion Fee to Trump Administration
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
Gulf State sovereign wealth funds are reportedly contributing $24 billion in cash toward the Ellison’s acquisition of Time Warner. It will be interesting to see if/how the war affects the status of these funds.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Greenland is rushing to create investment screening mechanism to block U.S. investors from buying up real estate: www.globalbankingandfinance.com/wary-us-inve...
globalbankingandfinance.com
Wary of US investors, Greenland lawmakers push to pass foreign investment screening law
COPENHAGEN, Feb 26 (Reuters) - A surge in property interest from U.S. buyers in Nuuk early last year prompted lawmakers to rush through curbs on...
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
hedgeofstate.substack.com/p/farce-agai...
hedgeofstate.substack.com
Farce, Again?
Some preliminary thoughts on the US-Israeli strikes on Iran
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Hoosiers beat Oregon 72-65 in a thrilling ending on senior day.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
It's almost like we overlearned the lesson of dollar hegemony because we don't understand how network topography works - www.ft.com/content/8017...
European indices are crushing the S&P 500
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Nuclear makes a lot of sense. Does France have lowest energy rates within EU?
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Can someone please explain to my why France is hovering up so much cross-border data center investment?
UNCTAD data on FDI in 2025 shows that France received USD 69 B in data center investments. The US received 29B, Korea received 21 B.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 25/01/2026
Noah is correct here. The ACI was first developed as a response to Trump 1.0. The timing of its passage gave the impression that it was a response to China’s economic coercion attempts of Lithuania. However, we all know EU can’t push through regs that fast!
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Reposted by Sarah Bauerle Danzman
Sam Brazys @sbrazys-ucd.bsky.social · 22/01/2026
Already some excellent submissions in for #PEADS2026 from May 22-23 at Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy. Don't have yours in yet? Don't worry there's still time - deadline January 30th! Please "re-sky" to spread the word!
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
COSCO attempting to buy up an inland transport logistics company in Germany. Watching with interest: trans.info/en/cosco-ham...
trans.info
COSCO plans takeover of Hamburg hinterland logistics company
COSCO plans takeover of Hamburg hinterland logistics company
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 10/01/2026
Do not accept the foundational lie of the dictator. Do not accept that he and his agents have the right to exact violent repression on citizens. Embrace the idea that the state exists to serve its citizens, not the other way around.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
can't you do that for the thing you are writing for us? :)
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
Japan might be amending it's investment screening mechanism to develop a CFIUS-style inter-agency review structure: www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/...
www3.nhk.or.jp
Japan govt. panel urges tighter foreign investment screening | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
A Japanese Finance Ministry panel has recommended a legal revision to tighten screening of inward foreign investments. The panel says the amendment is needed to adapt to a change in the security envir...
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
** edit - Emcore/Heifo (China) 2026 **
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
8. MineOne (China) 2024 9. US Steel/Nippon Steel (Japan) 2024 **reversed** 10. Jupiter/Suirui (China) 2025 11. Encore/HeiFo (China) 2026
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
This brings the number of CFIUS blocks to 11. 1. - Mamco/Catic (China) 1990 2. Ralls (China) 2012 3. Aixtron/GrandChip (China) 2016 4. Lattice/CanyonBridge (China) 2017 5. Qualcomm/Broadcom (Singapore) 2018 6. StayNTouch/Shiji (China) 2020 7. Musical.ly/TikTok (China) 2020 *not enforced*
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 03/01/2026
I know everyone is talking about Venezuela (as they should), but also, the Trump Administration used CFIUS authorities to require another Chinese investor to divest from a semiconductor company: home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...
home.treasury.gov
Statement on the President’s Decision Ordering the Divestment of Interests in Certain Assets of EMCORE Corporation by HieFo Corporation
WASHINGTON — Today, President Trump published an order ordering the divestment by HieFo Corporation (“HieFo”), a Delaware corporation and foreign person of certain assets of EMCORE Corporation (“EMCORE”), a New Jersey corporation.  The assets that were the subject of the transaction comprised EMCORE’s digital chips and related wafer design, fabrication, and processing business, including a semiconductor manufacturing facility (the “EMCORE Digital Chips Business”).    The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS” or the “Committee”) reviewed and investigated this transaction pursuant to Section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended (“Section 721”). CFIUS identified a national security risk arising from the transaction relating to potential access to EMCORE’s intellectual property, proprietary know-how, and expertise and to the potential diversion of supply of indium phosphide chips manufactured by the EMCORE Digital Chips Business away from the United States.  To address this risk, the President’s order directs HieFo to divest all interests and rights in the EMCORE Digital Chips Business.    HieFo did not file the transaction with CFIUS until after CFIUS’s non-notified team investigated the transaction.  CFIUS’s non-notified function has been enhanced by authorities provided by Congress in FIRRMA and ongoing appropriations to support the Committee’s ability to identify and review non-notified transactions.  Parties to transactions should carefully consider whether or not any transaction they may be undertaking may be subject to CFIUS jurisdiction, including whether or not the transaction has a potential nexus to U.S. national security. The CFIUS process focuses exclusively on identifying and addressing national security risks arising from a covered transaction.  CFIUS's risk analysis involves consideration of the potential threat, vulnerability, and consequence of any given transaction.  CFIUS reviews each transaction on a case-by-case basis and considers the specific facts and circumstances relating to that transaction.  As such, the disposition of each CFIUS case is reflective only of CFIUS’s analysis of that specific transaction and not indicative of a general position on the transaction parties, countries, or industries involved.  CFIUS’s mandate to conduct case-by-case reviews is reflective of the U.S. Government’s commitment to maintaining its open investment policy while protecting U.S. national security. View a copy of the President’s order. ABOUT CFIUS CFIUS is an interagency committee authorized to review certain transactions involving foreign investment in the United States and certain real estate transactions by foreign persons, in order to determine the effect of such transactions on the national security of the United States.  CFIUS is chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury and includes as members the Secretaries of State, Defense, Commerce, Energy, and Homeland Security, the Attorney General, the Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the U.S. Trade Representative.  The Director of National Intelligence and the Secretary of Labor participate as non-voting, ex-officio members, and the Secretary of the Department of Agriculture is a member when a case involves elements of the agricultural industrial base that have implications for food security.   Treasury’s Office of Investment Security leads CFIUS’s efforts to identify transactions where no voluntary notice has been filed under section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended. If CFIUS determines that a non-notified transaction may be a covered transaction or covered real estate transaction and may raise national security considerations, the Committee may contact the transaction parties and request a CFIUS filing.  Members of the public may contact Treasury with any tips, referrals, or voluntary self-disclosures at CFIUS.tips@treasury.gov.  ####
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 27/12/2025
I recommend reading the novel. It is especially generative for scholars as we grapple with the challenges of our point history.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
Glad you consulted for it. We are on same wavelength. Here is what I posted regarding the story a few days ago: bsky.app/profile/sara...
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 26/12/2025
“The humanities are always in crisis. I no longer believe this is an institutional matter – it’s in the nature of intellectual life, or of thought itself. Thinking is always in crisis.”
The book jacket to What We Can know by Ian McEwan
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Here’s a link on the 10/50 fact: www.marketplace.org/story/2025/0...
marketplace.org
Nearly half of U.S. retail spending comes from top 10% of earners
The spending imbalance is at the highest levels it has been since Moody’s Analytics started collecting this data.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
What is striking about this graph is how little consumption contributed to growth in 2025 and how much decline in imports did. Consumption grew in q4, but for the year was lack luster. Additionally, the top 10% account for 50% consumption. This indicates substantial structural weakness
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Embracing EVs is important, not just for climate issues, but to facilitate a commercial market for battery production and innovation so that the market development costs can be widely distributed rather than borne by defense acquisition.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
Good to see the Trump administration waking up to the importance of battery supply chain integrity www.nytimes.com/2025/12/23/c...
nytimes.com
The Pentagon and A.I. Giants Have a Weakness. Both Need China’s Batteries, Badly.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
More please.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Always love contributing to Atlantic Council's By the Numbers Series. Thanks to Josh Lipsky and Kimberly Donovan's steady leadership through disorienting times. And to the amazing staff & NRSF at the center. I am fortunate to work with and learn from you all: www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/b...
atlanticcouncil.org
By the numbers: The global economy in 2025
Our GeoEconomics Center experts break down the numbers and data points that defined the global economy in 2025.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I’m not sure this framing is entirely fair, but it is certainly true that CFIUS provides the executive with enormous discretion, which can be used for legitimate public interest or for cronyism. And, again, the least corrupt divestment pathway was an IPO rather than brokered sale.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
I'm calling it - favorite album of 2025 is Bleeds by Wednesday. Here's a taste: open.spotify.com/track/5ksAxc...
open.spotify.com
Phish Pepsi
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Is this the final chapter in the TikTok saga? What valuation does the deal put TikTok USA at? What are the data safeguards? How will owners manage the algorithm? I’m a broken record, but divestment should have happened through IPO. www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/dig...
hollywoodreporter.com
TikTok U.S. Deal to Close Next Month: Oracle and Silver Lake Confirmed in Buyer Consortium
Abu Dhabi's state investment fund will also be a managing investor.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
media.tenor.com
a woman is covering her mouth with her hand in a field .
Alt: Katniss Everdeen in a field giving a salute to the cameras.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Outbound investment program now based in law (rather than EO). Analysis forthcoming (must finish grading first).
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Also, if you have good phd students writing on this topic who are interested in submitting to Law & Geoeconomics, I’m happy to chat!
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Love this!
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Reposted by Sarah Bauerle Danzman
Jim Goldgeier @jimgoldgeier.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
“it's vastly, vastly easier to destroy an institution than to create it” dailytarheel.com/article/univ...
dailytarheel.com
UNC cuts all six area studies research centers, effective 2026
As part of the University's plan to make $70 million in budget cuts across the institution, Vice Chancellor for Finance and Operations Nate Knuffman projected that cutting 14 centers and institutes in...
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Reposted by Sarah Bauerle Danzman
John Bisognano @johnbisognano.com · 12/12/2025
This should be the biggest story in the country right now. The sitting US President was extorting state lawmakers from his own party by threatening to withhold public money if they didn’t gerrymander for him. I don’t know how else to say it…
640186117045
Reposted by Sarah Bauerle Danzman
John Bisognano @johnbisognano.com · 12/12/2025
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 12/12/2025
Will be watching how the Damocles hammer of CFIUS review affects the Netflix v Paramount war for Warner Bros: deadline.com/2025/12/demo...
deadline.com
Democratic Lawmakers Warn Warner Bros. Discovery Of National Security Concerns In Paramount Bid Because Of Saudi And Other Foreign Investors
The two House members said that the transaction should undergo a Committee on Foreign Investment review.
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
#EU #investmentscreening regulation about to be updated, will likely either encourage or require member states screen #greenfield, a major step up in coverage: www.fdiintelligence.com/content/041f...
fdiintelligence.com
Countdown to new EU FDI regulation enters final stretch
No commission veto powers, but rules on greenfield and critical sectors are ‘open game’
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Thanks
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 11/12/2025
Who?
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
The news that the Trump administration is allowing #Nvidia chips to China is another indication that the deal makers are winning against the China Hawks. I anticipated this in my recent JIEL article, where a focus on tech competition is giving way to expansionary mercantilism/domination.
Table 1. Investment and technology policy developments under three administrations
Central tools Illustrative actions Strategy/goal
Ordering
implications
Trump
1.0
FIRRMA
ECRA & Emerging & Founda-
tional Technology List
Entity listings
EO 13959 (CMIC)
Foreign Direct Product Rules
Huawei entity
listing and de
minimis rulea
ZTE listing and
dealb
renegotiationc
Weaponization;
Extraterritoriality
State of
exception in
the context
of rules-
based order
Biden EO 14083 (CFIUS guidance)
EO 14105 (Outbound Investment
Regulation)
China Semiconductor Export
Controls
CHIPS & Science
BIS Rules (167)d
Export controls
on advanced
semiconductors
Connected vehicle
regulation
Technological
supremacy,
resilience, and
competitiveness
Embedded,
securitized
liberalism
Trump
2.0
America First Investment Policy
Memorandume
Restrict outbound portfolio flows
Restrict inbound non-passive
investment from China
Encouragement of inbound
passive investment
‘Fast-track’ inbound control
investment from friendly countries
Saudif and
Emiratig invest-
ment pledges
Golden Visash
Domination Expansionary
Mercant
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Sarah Bauerle Danzman @sarahbauerled.bsky.social · 05/12/2025
I just saw Andy Bell perform that live a few weeks ago.
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