iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

'In plain English: just as climate investment in poorer countries becomes more critical, it is becoming less affordable. The reason? Fiscal indiscipline in the rich world.'

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... They are also poorer, which means domestic savings are typically insufficient to finance the investment needed to curb emissions and adapt to climate change.' And just as climate finance is inadequate, loan financing is becoming less attainable as rates rise.

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'Nowhere is the financing challenge greater than in emerging markets and developing economies. These countries are home to most of the world’s people, and all of global population growth...

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A hotter planet meets dearer money

An excellent article in the FT. On climate adaptation: 'The choice is not between paying or not paying. It is between paying earlier for mitigation and adaptation, or paying more later for disaster relief, reconstruction, food insecurity and displaced populations.' But...

ft.com

Rising borrowing costs mean new financing instruments will be needed for developing economies to deal with climate change

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This is a potentially very useful outcome, allowing greater labour market fluidity across the region- and beyond the region. Many ASEAN countries want to send workers to Europe and elsewhere: this could help a lot.

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It will also pilot the ASEAN Digital Skills Passport, aimed at giving workers a recognized record of their skills and qualifications that travels with them across the region— helping workers adapt to changing industries while [helping] employers... to identify candidates with the right skill sets'

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Most interestingly: 'Thailand will put forward a 2026–2030 ASEAN skills certification framework, covering the certification of training programs, occupational skills standards, and ASEAN Centres of Excellence...

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'The meeting will address workforce challenges shared across the region— including the transition to digital and green economies and the changing workforce needs brought on by aging societies...' Very good: these are key areas, to which skills policy needs to respond.

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Thailand Brings Workforce Development to Regional Agenda at the 29th ASEAN Labour Ministers' Meeting

Thailand, hosting the 29th ASEAN Labour Ministers' Meeting later this month, have put out an interesting press statement. (Interesting, that is, by the standards of what is the important but undeniably boring policy area of skills recognition):

thailand.prd.go.th

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

A close-to-home article on planning + cost of climate adaptation infrastructure. The Thames Barrier was expected to defend London from rising seas until 2070. But extreme weather means it may need replacing by *2050*, costing £20bn+. Replacing it will take ~30 years- so a decision is needed soon.

giftarticle.ft.com

Thames Barrier may need £20bn replacement far sooner than expected

Extreme weather has put London’s flood defence under strain, senior government officials warn

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

New @cgdev.org blog with @helen-dempster.bsky.social on the UK Migration Advisory Committee's recommendations on the sub-graduate occupations to get access to Skilled Worker visas. We think the MAC's done quite a good job, but that the process should give more focus to reliability of labour supply.

cgdev.org

Why the UK Must Put Labour Supply At the Heart of its Visa Access Policy

The UK’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has published its recommendations on which occupations should be eligible for Skilled Worker visas. In this blog we assess the MAC’s recommendations and sug...

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Reposted by Sam Huckstep

James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

This is a pretty abject failure from both government and business. We've known for years the economy is going to electrify and we will need thousands more electricians. And yet the pipeline of new skilled workers entering the sector has barely grown. www.businessgreen.com/news/4533537...

businessgreen.com

'Effectively static': Electrician numbers plateau despite looming net zero skills gap

EXCLUSIVE: Number of electricians working in England saw net increase of barely 1,000 last year, despite need to add more than 32,000 skilled workers to the workforce by 2035

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

Why is Africa's growth not boosted by quicker regional/continental integration, asks Bright Simons? 'When customs duties account for 20 to 40 per cent of revenue across much of the continent, finance ministers without alternative fiscal channels have an incentive to delay.'

giftarticle.ft.com

Don’t blame colonialism for Africa’s trade woes

The continent’s growth is being hemmed in by blocked trade arteries, not arbitrary borders drawn in Berlin in 1885

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Reposted by Sam Huckstep

Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 17/07/2026

Which immigrants do people prefer and why? Many point to skill levels, but @mfreino.bsky.social @isabel-ruiz.bsky.social and I argue people also consider the social value of work immigrants do, even if considered "lower" skilled. Open access in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1017/S147... 🧵

Title: Beyond skills: How occupational essentiality and social value relate to attitudes toward immigrant labor.
Authors: William L. Allen, Mariña Fernández-Reino, and Isabel Ruiz
Abstract: Research on public attitudes toward immigration consistently shows that people prefer higher- over lower-skilled immigrants, largely for sociotropic economic and fiscal reasons. We argue that this account is incomplete: citizens also evaluate immigrant workers according to the essentiality and social value of the work they perform, alongside formal skills and education. We conceptualize two logics for evaluating occupations – economic-fiscal and moral-social – that shape attitudes toward labor immigrants, before testing this argument in two studies in the UK. Study 1 uses a preregistered conjoint survey experiment (N = 4,951) fielded during the UK’s third COVID-19 lockdown in January 2021. Respondents evaluated hypothetical labor immigrants varying in occupation, skill level, and origin. Immigrants working in occupations designated as ‘essential’ during the pandemic were substantially more likely to be preferred for admission (by about 22 percentage points) and more likely to be viewed as economically beneficial (by about 10 percentage points) than those in nonessential jobs, net of skill. Study 2 reports results from an online survey (N = 1,944) fielded in 2025 measuring perceptions of occupational essentiality, social value, economic value, prestige, skill, and labor shortages. Perceived essentiality is strongly associated with social value while remaining distinct from skill and prestige. Importantly, perceptions of occupational essentiality remained stable over time and correlated with preferences for admitting immigrants in those same occupations. Together, these findings highlight occupational essentiality as a distinct and consequential driver of immigration attitudes with implications for labor migration debates and policymaking.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

As someone looking to buy and who has been struggling to pull property listings data for AI indexing, I would love this idea to happen. The fact Rightmove doesn’t allow a non-commercial API is a real hindrance.

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Some fascinating stats: 52.8% of firms never recruit new personnel to address shortages caused by the green transition Only 6.9% do so (very) frequently 75.8% of firms never seek workers abroad 81.3% of firms have never considered production relocation 48.5% substitute automation for labor

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Interesting graph on apprenticeship applications from a new paper by @rwi.bsky.social. 'Green' occupations demonstrate much more resilient interest among applicants than non-green. But apprenticeship applications have cratered across the board- hard to see how Germany produces the workers needed.

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... reinforcing the link between the green transition and persistent labour shortages... the impact of the green transition on labour shortages will become more acute in the future in industries closely tied to the green transition.' 22 EU countries already report shortages of electricians.

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Labour shortages and surpluses in Europe 2025 | European Labour Authority

Useful new European Labour Authority report on labour shortages and surpluses in Europe in 2025. Among other things, 'the observed growth in both employment in green occupations and green skills requirements underlines a widening skills gap...

ela.europa.eu

This report analyses labour market imbalances across EURES countries in 2025. Although labour markets have eased since the immediate post-pandemic period, shortages remain pronounced in key sectors an...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

For seeing useful things on Bluesky (not the same as engagement on one's own posts), I've recently discovered the various custom algorithms- maybe the most useful of which is this 'For You' feed, which is much more like Old Twitter's For You feed in its usefulness:

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

It also notes that there are major supply-side (and in some cases demand-side, for a variety of reasons) constraints to scaling up the workforce to the extent needed, and that in the meantime there is huge lost productivity. But it doesn't touch on migration policy, as we discuss below...

cgdev.org

Which Occupations Should Get Skilled Worker Visas? Informing the UK’s Visa Reform

The UK’s 2025 immigration reforms will restrict Skilled Worker visas for many mid-skill jobs, raising questions about which roles should retain access given labour shortages and industrial strategy go...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

A bracing new report by the UK engineering skills charity Engenuity finds that skill gaps in the UK's manufacturing and engineering sectors cost an annual total of... £5.2 billion. That's a pretty mammoth sum, but includes only firm-level impact. It doesn't include second-order effects, eg. fiscal.

enginuity.org

Mind the Gap | Engineering & manufacturing skills report | Enginuity

A major new Enginuity report exploring the skills challenges facing UK engineering and manufacturing SMEs. Access the full report and findings.

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Jim Clifford @jimclifford.bsky.social · 27/06/2026

Also: 'When including outflows from the EU Institutions, Ukraine received more ODA from DAC members combined in 2025 than did all LDCs (USD 28.1 billion, a 22.3% decline) and more than all countries in sub-Saharan Africa (USD 29.2 billion, a 23.0% decline).'

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Reposted by Sam Huckstep

It took me months to figure out how to extract 30,000 careers from the Colonial Office List; it took a little over a day to repeat the full process for the Indian Office List. The visualization now shows the very different global geography of these two bureaucracies in the British Empire.

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Late to this, but interesting to see that Germany became the leading provider of ODA in 2025. www.oecd.org/en/data/insi...

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Yes, it seems it would need to be a proper project with a good chunk of funding. But potentially quite a justifiable outlay for a funder interested in improving the quality of democracy!

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

This is a great effort. I've thought for a while that an AI tool showing clearly how new legislation affects existing legislation would be a huge public good. (Prompted by @iandunt.bsky.social suggesting that this is a massive bottleneck for MPs' ability to demand accountability). fyi @lgilbert.co

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... and 2025 funding gaps across food security, nutrition, health, and social protection amount to roughly US$488m, about 130% of projected domestic revenue. It suggests ways of increasing domestic revenue generation, but stresses that these will be grossly inadequate versus needs.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Interesting research commissioned by the Government of Somalia trying to quantify the extent / likely impacts of ODA cuts. It emphasises how cuts are a huge negative shock across the board, at the household and macro level. Suggests 68% of INGOs reduced international staff by up to half...

mof.gov.so

Quantifying the Impact and Charting Viable Policy Pathways (Volume I) | Ministry of Finance - Somalia

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Grantham Research Institute at LSE @granthamlse.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

We regret that our event on Extreme Heat: Improving governance and strengthening action around the world has been cancelled due to the red extreme heat warning issued by the UK Met Office. Our apologies to everyone who was planning to attend the event.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

An excellent short paper from @nrdc.org's Ilmi Granoff conceptualising when, why, and how (and whether) different adaptation options are financeable. It breaks adaptation activities into four financeable categories in a way that I find very helpful and will probably use.

nrdc.org

Adaptation Finance Has a Cash Flow Problem: Can We Fix It?

NRDC’s new framework explains what makes adaptations financeable.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

I hadn’t fully realised this: it is the usury of the Foreign Office that is forcing the gutting of the British Council, an agency central to UK soft power efforts? Bizarre. Glad the repayment period is being lengthened- but still bizarre. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/06/2026

Cool new research from @mclem.org, Nice, & Rigol! Authorising work for asylum seekers is politically contested, often due to perceived 'magnet' effects + fears for local labour markets. New evidence from the US finds work authorisation boosts local wages + GDP, and *doesn't* have a magnet effect.

rfberlin.com

Economic and Magnet Effects of Work Authorization for Asylum Seekers: Descriptive Evidence from the United States

ROCKWOOL Foundation

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Migration Studies @migrationjrnl.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

How do immigration bureaucracies demonstrate accountability beyond formal political oversight? @A.Ellermann and @M.Paquet show how immigration departments direct accountability to different audiences, shaped by institutional design and politicization. doi.org/10.1093/migr...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

'Here we present a new dataset of annual origin-destination migration across 230 countries and regions from 1990 to the present [2023], integrating diverse data sources into a unified modelling framework... A paradigm shift for the computational toolset hitherto used to model global migration.'

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

'Not everyone can be bailed out, and even the wealthiest states cannot indefinitely defend every shore. In some places, managed retreat — focusing on adaptation and relocation — will be the most realistic outcome.'

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 10/06/2026

Fascinating to see planned relocation the subject of an FT Editorial Board article! 'With national funds already stretched, the authorities will need to make difficult but necessary trade-offs. That begins by prioritising what assets need to be protected.'

giftarticle.ft.com

The hard truths about England’s receding coastline

The entire shoreline cannot be protected from erosion, but the state can mitigate future fallout

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Another cool piece today on VoxDev- harmonisation of pre-2013 night-lights data with post-2013 data to allow longer-term analysis. And the data (and replication code) is open source.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

Based on that they create 1) maps of active markets and 2) longitudinal tracking of these markets from 2017 across a load of countries. There's a dashboard you can explore!- market-activity.net And as they note, this is useful for lots of things! Not least informing FEWS NET. Really cool.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

This is really neat! Just generally fascinating work. 'Very high-resolution imagery is expensive and not always available... We detect markets by stacking many images from the same location over time and identifying places where the appearance changes *regularly* on specific weekdays'.

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But, interestingly, the CCC did not incorporate relocation in their modelling of cost-effective adaptation at a national scale. This is perhaps surprising, given that IMF modelling elsewhere (e.g. Fiji) finds planned relocation important in cost-effective adaptation. Lots more to be done.

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And, as noted, limits are already starting to be recognised in some places: 'Some communities in the UK are already planning for managed retreat or a ‘do nothing’ approach in response to coastal erosion and coastal flooding.'

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... others 'argued against allocating large sums of money to areas that they viewed as ‘lost causes’... Instead, they suggested government support should focus on helping affected households relocate to a safer area.'

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