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So, which occupations should keep access to visas- and remain on the Temporary Shortage List? We provide an index for prioritising occupations by need across a range of factors- including the strategic importance of their work. We've made this interactive, so you can tweak the parameters.

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We're particularly concerned about occupations relevant to the Clean Energy sector. The Home Office suggests that these policy changes will not impact decarbonisation goals; our modelling leaves us much less sure. Renewables buildout is urgent, and we think bottlenecks should be less acceptable.

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Moreover, even if this goal is achieved, it will still leave employers with a multi-year labour bottleneck. Many apprenticeships take several years to complete; in that time there will be a shortfall of trained workers. This might be fine- but policymakers should be aware of trade-offs.

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The government's goal is to boost employers' investment in apprenticeships by cutting off access to already-trained workers. This might work. But the current data makes me unsure: SW visas for occupations on the MAC's list fell 44% from 2023/24 - 2024/25, but apprenticeship starts stayed level.

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The results are striking: many of these occupations have a high reliance on international recruitment.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

There are 82 occupations under consideration (by the Migration Advisory Committee - MAC) for a place on the TSL. Most of them (some big exceptions) rely heavily on the Skilled Worker visa for recruitment: being cut from the list would essentially cut them off from international labour supply.

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This is quite a chart and story from the FT. A bizarre case. John Simpson, "a church warden and conveyancer", has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Reform; he nominally runs a UK interior decorating agency, but it seems is also listed as manager of a Dubai LLC ultimately run by Khameini.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

A fascinating blog by CGD colleagues on UK aid budget shenanigans. Notably, the UK has slashed aid funding to the poorest states, while rubberstamping a huge (41%!!) increase in aid to *its own overseas territories*. Which (being rather wealthy) might not even be eligible to receive aid!

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 27/03/2026

Some striking charts on the impending fertiliser -> agricultural yield issues caused by the ripple effects of the Iran war, from a new FT article. Following the invasion of Ukraine, new grain supply averted the worst. But we cannot magic up new supply of fertiliser. www.ft.com/content/27e0...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

In a new @cgdev.org note @helen-dempster.bsky.social and I, with colleagues at Talent Beyond Boundaries, set out the key design questions and options. We also -excitingly- include a new interactive modelling calculator, allowing you to set visa design parameters to see how costs are spread.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 27/01/2026

Yikes. A pretty dismal chart from a good (but depressing) new CfR blog.

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I hear you ask: what about the emissions of migration? (This was in fact the Home Office's claim when cutting UK access to vocationally skilled migrants: fewer of them = fewer flights --> better CO2 outcomes). The answer: pretty much a non-factor, given the scale of abatement from work activities!

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For Germany and Italy, there a big direct fiscal benefits of filling key 'green' roles. Under the EU Effort Sharing Regulation, they have to buy licenses for every tCO2 emitted above an agreed ceiling. They're currently on course to smash their allowances. One more worker could save them EUR 70k+!

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And there are other benefits! The electrician's PV installations will generate electricity; the heat pump installer's work will alleviate gas demand (~1m m^3 of LNG over the 9 years modelled).

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We also translate the abatement into social value. A marginal worker's labour can allow the abatement of hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of carbon.

(For comparison: the same worker, if marginal, would contribute a much bigger forest's worth in India or the Philippines.) Heat pumps: still more, of course.

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We compare the abatement contribution of the modelled marginal workers to those of trees. To equal an electrician's work installing solar PV in Italy from 2024 - 2032, you would need to plant 6,500 trees and leave them for 50 years! Phenomenal.

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*If* a worker is similarly 'marginal' in both the country of origin and destination, then practically regardless of productivity, rebound rates etc., they will have a bigger impact if not migrating. Differences in grid carbon intensity are just that big. So, best to be careful when recruiting.

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BUT! A word on everyone's lips is brain-drain. Does that apply here? Yes, quite possibly. Countries of origin also have workforce shortages. Taking their workers might leave them unable (or slow) to install technologies needed. And importantly, they also have much more carbon-intensive grids.

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Heat pumps: still better! So, using migration to bring in workers to get mitigation projects done early (or just on time), when the domestic labour force can't meet needs: a good idea.

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How important is it that these workforce gaps are filled asap? Could countries wait for workers to be trained? We also model an 'acceleratory' worker whose contribution is caught up at the end of a ~4-year apprenticeship. TLDR: it's worth going fast.

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Adding a heating technician has an even bigger impact. (Heat pumps are fantastically more efficient than gas boilers!)

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The answer is Quite a lot! There are lots of interactive charts in the digital paper. Here are some quickly. Adding an electrician (where their absence would constrain PV activities) allows the abatement of nearly 700tCO2 in the UK, and over 1,200tCO2 in Italy. (Time window: 2024-32).

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'How the west fell behind in the green tech race' 'In the late 1980s, Denmark’s pioneering wind power sector celebrated a potential new Chinese customer... Nearly four decades later, the tables have completely turned.' giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

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'The fall has been faster than expected, however, undershooting the projections of the Office for Budget Responsibility, which underpin the government’s fiscal plans... Net migration to the UK is likely to fall further in the short term, as the government presses ahead with further restrictions.'

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'Net migration to the UK could fall below zero in the short term and stabilise at levels not seen since the 1990s, with far-reaching consequences for politics and society... giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

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But: 'These effects depend on the underlying labour market structure. In a dual-sector labour market – typical of many developing countries – the interaction between formal and informal employment is key to understanding how emigration affects non-migrants.' See the below graph-

Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 12/01/2026

Neat graph from IRENA/ILO's new report on clean energy employment. Headline: clean energy employment is still growing, but growth slowed in 2024 due to a combination of grid connection issues, economies of scale in manufacturing, manufacturing automation, and layoffs due to economic challenges.

Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 19/12/2025

A sobering pair of graphs on the UK's ageing/economic future in the FT today, summarising a new report from the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee. 'The risk is that the long-term debt burden becomes unsustainable, warned the report.' www.ft.com/content/788e...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

The indices' variables are shown below. They suggest it's better & easier than other approaches... still quite a lot of data needed, though. And it strikes me that the effects of several of these variables (index was tested in Honduras) will vary a lot in other contexts. But still interesting!

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 18/12/2025

A very striking chart from an excellent new paper by @mclem.org. Ageing high-income countries have a choice: accept that GDP growth is contingent on migration, or pin their futures on fantastical hopes of huge productivity growth. www.iza.org/publications...

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Hundreds of thousands of seasonal workers are recruited each year, across a lot of countries. We end the blog with a nifty (wonkish) interactive remittance/mobilisation calculator. Have a go! Plug in values for a context and see for yourself! I find the likely results astounding.

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Moreover, if a country of destination did deliberately recruit from climate-vulnerable populations, the remittances could be classified as mobilised private adaptation finance. It's been horribly hard to mobilise private adaptation finance. On average $1 public finance mobilised just $0.07 in 2023.

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If these workers come from the 3rd income decile in their HICs/UMICs of origin, a representative remittance sum of $5,000 ≈ doubling their income during the six-month period. But if you recruited from the same decile in Kenya, the same amount is the equivalent of nearly *six years' earnings*!

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

Take the example of recruitment for the UK's Seasonal Worker visa. Workers on this visa typically earn ~US$11,00 post-living costs in six months. In 2024 31% of workers were recruited from high- or upper-middle-income countries.

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Impact of cuts to skilled worker visas on other government priorities: Natural capital and Decarbonisation: 'No meaningful impacts have been identified.' Watch this space for CGD research on this subject (probably after Christmas). Our estimates suggest government modelling on this falls far short.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 09/12/2025

'Cuisine diversity, in other words, is not just about taste. It is about where families settled, which high streets remained affordable long enough for a second generation to open businesses, and which parts of the city experienced displacement before culinary ecosystems could mature.' Really cool.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 08/12/2025

The Energy Security and Net Zero Committee of the UK Parliament has put out an excellent report digging into whether the supply of labour for the UK's green transition meets its needs. Conclusion: 'The supply of skilled labour does not currently match the levels of demand expected to be required.'

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

A good summary of the domestic vs. international recruitment tradeoff in a new @ciob.bsky.social report- here focused on the construction sector, but relevant to policy-driven decarbonisation labour demand. Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.

Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 02/10/2025

A striking chart: in 2021 (the last census), there were roughly as many workers leaving UK clean energy industries due to retirement *each year* as there were *in total* aged under 25 in the sector. www.standardlife.co.uk/centre-for-t...

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 08/09/2025

To my surprise, the World Bank's recent 139-page report on 'Making Refugee Self-Reliance Work' doesn't mention the word 'climate' once... Given the contexts of many refugee-hosting countries, self-reliance initiatives that don't take climate into account are likely to under-perform.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

...This may indicate a need to review current processes for recognising qualifications and skills acquired overseas, ensuring it is fit for purpose: delivering a stable pipeline of migrant workers without compromising safety standards.' Critical occupations are already bolstered by migrant workers.

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Beyond this, the UK could seek bilateral partnerships. It could target countries with which it has particular goals, or focus on countries from which it currently recruits large numbers. E.g., the UK recruits hundreds of welders from the Philippines. Why not set up a training/migration partnership?

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Most workers in green-relevant occupations arrive on Skilled Worker visas- see below. The May 2025 Immigration White Paper, however, clamped down on these visas. 1: it raised the education threshold for visa eligibility. 2: it significantly increased costs to employers.

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We take a look at the current use of visas across several key occupations, and find that for some they indeed are already crucial- long before labour demand will peak. In 2023, over 60% of new entrants to the UK welding workforce arrived on visas!

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