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Sam Huckstep

@samhuckstep.bsky.social
484 followers 542 following 512 posts

Working on climate, migration, governance & green transition at CGDev. Any views mine.

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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I've never before attended a Mass at which there was a standing ovation at the end of the homily. I was very impressed by Cardinal McElroy. A blistering rebuke of the Trump administration's treatment of migrants and refugees, delivered with gentleness.
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Center for Global Development @cgdev.org · 23/09/2026
As aid declines, more refugees in Kenya are expected to become self-reliant. But a new crackdown on foreign traders could make it even harder for them to work. @samhuckstep.bsky.social, @helen-dempster.bsky.social, and @qulshtm.bsky.social examine what this means for refugees. go.cgdev.org/3TN3vif
go.cgdev.org
Kenya's Small-Business Crackdown Risks a Hammer Blow to Refugees
A new crackdown on foreigners operating small businesses in Kenya--announced by President Ruto in September--risks undermining progress made on integrating refugees. The government of Kenya must urgently clarify how it intends refugees to be affected, a...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
An excellent article in the FT. On climate adaptation: 'The choice is not between paying or not paying. It is between paying earlier for mitigation and adaptation, or paying more later for disaster relief, reconstruction, food insecurity and displaced populations.' But...
ft.com
A hotter planet meets dearer money
Rising borrowing costs mean new financing instruments will be needed for developing economies to deal with climate change
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Thailand, hosting the 29th ASEAN Labour Ministers' Meeting later this month, have put out an interesting press statement. (Interesting, that is, by the standards of what is the important but undeniably boring policy area of skills recognition):
thailand.prd.go.th
Thailand Brings Workforce Development to Regional Agenda at the 29th ASEAN Labour Ministers' Meeting
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
A close-to-home article on planning + cost of climate adaptation infrastructure. The Thames Barrier was expected to defend London from rising seas until 2070. But extreme weather means it may need replacing by *2050*, costing £20bn+. Replacing it will take ~30 years- so a decision is needed soon.
giftarticle.ft.com
Thames Barrier may need £20bn replacement far sooner than expected
Extreme weather has put London’s flood defence under strain, senior government officials warn
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
New @cgdev.org blog with @helen-dempster.bsky.social on the UK Migration Advisory Committee's recommendations on the sub-graduate occupations to get access to Skilled Worker visas. We think the MAC's done quite a good job, but that the process should give more focus to reliability of labour supply.
cgdev.org
Why the UK Must Put Labour Supply At the Heart of its Visa Access Policy
The UK’s Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) has published its recommendations on which occupations should be eligible for Skilled Worker visas. In this blog we assess the MAC’s recommendations and sug...
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James Murray @james-bg.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
This is a pretty abject failure from both government and business. We've known for years the economy is going to electrify and we will need thousands more electricians. And yet the pipeline of new skilled workers entering the sector has barely grown. www.businessgreen.com/news/4533537...
businessgreen.com
'Effectively static': Electrician numbers plateau despite looming net zero skills gap
EXCLUSIVE: Number of electricians working in England saw net increase of barely 1,000 last year, despite need to add more than 32,000 skilled workers to the workforce by 2035
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Why is Africa's growth not boosted by quicker regional/continental integration, asks Bright Simons? 'When customs duties account for 20 to 40 per cent of revenue across much of the continent, finance ministers without alternative fiscal channels have an incentive to delay.'
giftarticle.ft.com
Don’t blame colonialism for Africa’s trade woes
The continent’s growth is being hemmed in by blocked trade arteries, not arbitrary borders drawn in Berlin in 1885
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Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 17/07/2026
Which immigrants do people prefer and why? Many point to skill levels, but @mfreino.bsky.social @isabel-ruiz.bsky.social and I argue people also consider the social value of work immigrants do, even if considered "lower" skilled. Open access in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1017/S147... 🧵
Title: Beyond skills: How occupational essentiality and social value relate to attitudes toward immigrant labor. 
Authors: William L. Allen, Mariña Fernández-Reino, and Isabel Ruiz 
Abstract: Research on public attitudes toward immigration consistently shows that people prefer higher- over lower-skilled immigrants, largely for sociotropic economic and fiscal reasons. We argue that this account is incomplete: citizens also evaluate immigrant workers according to the essentiality and social value of the work they perform, alongside formal skills and education. We conceptualize two logics for evaluating occupations – economic-fiscal and moral-social – that shape attitudes toward labor immigrants, before testing this argument in two studies in the UK. Study 1 uses a preregistered conjoint survey experiment (N = 4,951) fielded during the UK’s third COVID-19 lockdown in January 2021. Respondents evaluated hypothetical labor immigrants varying in occupation, skill level, and origin. Immigrants working in occupations designated as ‘essential’ during the pandemic were substantially more likely to be preferred for admission (by about 22 percentage points) and more likely to be viewed as economically beneficial (by about 10 percentage points) than those in nonessential jobs, net of skill. Study 2 reports results from an online survey (N = 1,944) fielded in 2025 measuring perceptions of occupational essentiality, social value, economic value, prestige, skill, and labor shortages. Perceived essentiality is strongly associated with social value while remaining distinct from skill and prestige. Importantly, perceptions of occupational essentiality remained stable over time and correlated with preferences for admitting immigrants in those same occupations. Together, these findings highlight occupational essentiality as a distinct and consequential driver of immigration attitudes with implications for labor migration debates and policymaking.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Interesting graph on apprenticeship applications from a new paper by @rwi.bsky.social. 'Green' occupations demonstrate much more resilient interest among applicants than non-green. But apprenticeship applications have cratered across the board- hard to see how Germany produces the workers needed.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
Useful new European Labour Authority report on labour shortages and surpluses in Europe in 2025. Among other things, 'the observed growth in both employment in green occupations and green skills requirements underlines a widening skills gap...
ela.europa.eu
Labour shortages and surpluses in Europe 2025 | European Labour Authority
This report analyses labour market imbalances across EURES countries in 2025. Although labour markets have eased since the immediate post-pandemic period, shortages remain pronounced in key sectors an...
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Nell Henderson @nellhenderson.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Latest important research from PIIE's Michael Clemens: Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans www.piie.com/blogs/realti...
piie.com
Firms allowed to hire immigrant manual laborers expand to hire more Americans
The US government has recently enacted the largest shift in immigration policy since 1924. As officials restrict unauthorized immigration, they face a stark choice: create offsetting lawful channels f...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
A bracing new report by the UK engineering skills charity Engenuity finds that skill gaps in the UK's manufacturing and engineering sectors cost an annual total of... £5.2 billion. That's a pretty mammoth sum, but includes only firm-level impact. It doesn't include second-order effects, eg. fiscal.
enginuity.org
Mind the Gap | Engineering & manufacturing skills report | Enginuity
A major new Enginuity report exploring the skills challenges facing UK engineering and manufacturing SMEs. Access the full report and findings.
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Jim Clifford @jimclifford.bsky.social · 27/06/2026
It took me months to figure out how to extract 30,000 careers from the Colonial Office List; it took a little over a day to repeat the full process for the Indian Office List. The visualization now shows the very different global geography of these two bureaucracies in the British Empire.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Late to this, but interesting to see that Germany became the leading provider of ODA in 2025. www.oecd.org/en/data/insi...
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John Springford @johnspringford.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
A side point - estimates of the fiscal impact of immigration need to take these spillovers into account, as @mclem.org does here. www.iza.org/publications...
iza.org
The Fiscal Effect of Immigration: Reducing Bias in Influential Estimates
Immigration policy can have important net fiscal effects that vary by immigrants' skill level. But mainstream methods to estimate these effects are pr...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 26/06/2026
Interesting research commissioned by the Government of Somalia trying to quantify the extent / likely impacts of ODA cuts. It emphasises how cuts are a huge negative shock across the board, at the household and macro level. Suggests 68% of INGOs reduced international staff by up to half...
mof.gov.so
Quantifying the Impact and Charting Viable Policy Pathways (Volume I) | Ministry of Finance - Somalia
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Grantham Research Institute at LSE @granthamlse.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
We regret that our event on Extreme Heat: Improving governance and strengthening action around the world has been cancelled due to the red extreme heat warning issued by the UK Met Office. Our apologies to everyone who was planning to attend the event.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
An excellent short paper from @nrdc.org's Ilmi Granoff conceptualising when, why, and how (and whether) different adaptation options are financeable. It breaks adaptation activities into four financeable categories in a way that I find very helpful and will probably use.
nrdc.org
Adaptation Finance Has a Cash Flow Problem: Can We Fix It?
NRDC’s new framework explains what makes adaptations financeable.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
I hadn’t fully realised this: it is the usury of the Foreign Office that is forcing the gutting of the British Council, an agency central to UK soft power efforts? Bizarre. Glad the repayment period is being lengthened- but still bizarre. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 17/06/2026
Cool new research from @mclem.org, Nice, & Rigol! Authorising work for asylum seekers is politically contested, often due to perceived 'magnet' effects + fears for local labour markets. New evidence from the US finds work authorisation boosts local wages + GDP, and *doesn't* have a magnet effect.
rfberlin.com
Economic and Magnet Effects of Work Authorization for Asylum Seekers: Descriptive Evidence from the United States
ROCKWOOL Foundation
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Migration Studies @migrationjrnl.bsky.social · 16/06/2026
How do immigration bureaucracies demonstrate accountability beyond formal political oversight? @A.Ellermann and @M.Paquet show how immigration departments direct accountability to different audiences, shaped by institutional design and politicization. doi.org/10.1093/migr...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 11/06/2026
'Here we present a new dataset of annual origin-destination migration across 230 countries and regions from 1990 to the present [2023], integrating diverse data sources into a unified modelling framework... A paradigm shift for the computational toolset hitherto used to model global migration.'
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
Fascinating to see planned relocation the subject of an FT Editorial Board article! 'With national funds already stretched, the authorities will need to make difficult but necessary trade-offs. That begins by prioritising what assets need to be protected.'
giftarticle.ft.com
The hard truths about England’s receding coastline
The entire shoreline cannot be protected from erosion, but the state can mitigate future fallout
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Another cool piece today on VoxDev- harmonisation of pre-2013 night-lights data with post-2013 data to allow longer-term analysis. And the data (and replication code) is open source.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 08/06/2026
This is really neat! Just generally fascinating work. 'Very high-resolution imagery is expensive and not always available... We detect markets by stacking many images from the same location over time and identifying places where the appearance changes *regularly* on specific weekdays'.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 20/05/2026
The UK Climate Change Committee's mammoth report 'A Well-Adapted UK: The Fourth Independent Assessment of UK Climate Risk' is out today. I'm glad to see that it grapples (albeit not in the depth we will need in coming years) with adaptation limits and planned relocation/retreat.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 07/05/2026
Has anyone else come across the Centre for Government Reform, a London think-tank so new it doesn't yet have an advisory council? It seems quite reluctant to say what its policy proposals will be- but some of its wording reminds me of the Heritage Foundation's pre-Trump.2 preparations.
govtreform.com
About us - Centre for Government Reform
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Join us on May 14th (12 - 5pm ET in person; 13 - 16:30 ET online) for a fascinating set of discussions on the financing of planned relocations in the context of climate change! Climate change will increasingly require adaptive relocation- but how to sustainably finance it? With a stellar lineup:
cgdev.org
Financing Planned Relocation in the Context of Climate Change and Disasters
This public event will bring together global experts and practitioners on planned relocation to assess financing sources and mechanisms, identify remaining policy and research gaps, and discuss challe...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
Interesting new paper on education and emigration across 80 developing economies. Findings: 1. Education expansion significantly increases skilled emigration, indicating that rising educational attainment enhances the international portability of skills
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Educating for Export? Brain Drain, Structural Gaps, and the Human Capital Sustainability Dilemma of SDG 4 in Developing Economies
Education occupies a central position in Sustainable Development Goal 4 (SDG 4), reflecting the assumption that expanding educational attainment strengthens domestic human capital and long-run develo....
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Join us on May 14th (12 - 5pm ET in person; 13 - 16:30 ET online) for a fascinating set of discussions on the financing of planned relocations in the context of climate change! Climate change will increasingly require adaptive relocation- but how to sustainably finance it? With a stellar lineup:
cgdev.org
Financing Planned Relocation in the Context of Climate Change and Disasters
This public event will bring together global experts and practitioners on planned relocation to assess financing sources and mechanisms, identify remaining policy and research gaps, and discuss challe...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
'The alarm is particularly acute in India, which has a government target of building 100km of highway a day and which imports about 40 per cent of its bitumen, almost all of it from the Gulf.' This seems a nice natural experiment in road rollout effects for someone!
giftarticle.ft.com
Alarm spreads among road-builders as Iran war bitumen shortage bites
Soaring cost of asphalt hits highway projects in India and South Korea and repairs from Italy to Australia
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Migration Studies @migrationjrnl.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
How do states reconcile free movement with national control? Comparing Mercosur, ECOWAS, and the EU, @Z. Perko shows that despite different institutional contexts, states rely on similar mechanisms such as conditionalities, selective incorporation, and ambiguous compliance. doi.org/10.1093/migr...
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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 24/04/2026
The UK's immigration system is pretty expensive, especially if migrants come with their partners or children.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
New paper! The UK plans to restrict visa access for ‘mid-skill’ occupations- except for those on the Temporary Shortage List of exemptions. We ask: What effects would loss of visa access have for labour supply? Which occupations should be on that list?
cgdev.org
Which Occupations Should Get Skilled Worker Visas? Informing the UK’s Visa Reform
The UK’s 2025 immigration reforms will restrict Skilled Worker visas for many mid-skill jobs, raising questions about which roles should retain access given labour shortages and industrial strategy go...
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Climate Risk Economics @climateeconomics.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
New @granthamlse.bsky.social report makes the case for investing in adaptation, as this "can yield substantial macroeconomic returns, resulting in a ‘triple dividend’: - preventing losses - stimulating economic activity - providing social and environmental co-benefits" www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminst...
lse.ac.uk
The macroeconomic case for investing in climate adaptation - Grantham Research Institute on climate change and the environment
A groundbreaking new synthesis of the economic and fiscal risks arising from physical climate change and the economic case for investing in adaptation to climate impacts.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
This is quite a chart and story from the FT. A bizarre case. John Simpson, "a church warden and conveyancer", has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Reform; he nominally runs a UK interior decorating agency, but it seems is also listed as manager of a Dubai LLC ultimately run by Khameini.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
A fascinating blog by CGD colleagues on UK aid budget shenanigans. Notably, the UK has slashed aid funding to the poorest states, while rubberstamping a huge (41%!!) increase in aid to *its own overseas territories*. Which (being rather wealthy) might not even be eligible to receive aid!
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
An interesting admission by Reform's housing spokesperson in a new interview- that immigration will be needed to support housebuilding targets (which he suggests Reform will place well above Labour's 300,000 per year).
insidehousing.co.uk
Exclusive interview with Reform UK’s housing spokesperson Simon Dudley
Jess McCabe meets Simon Dudley, Reform UK’s new housing spokesperson, to find out his views on development and who should be eligible for social housing
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
As I recall Trump's justification for crushing offshore wind was the protection of whales. This move 'will hurt endangered species across the Gulf including the Rice’s whale... there are only 51 such whales left in the wild after the species was decimated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill.'
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Some striking charts on the impending fertiliser -> agricultural yield issues caused by the ripple effects of the Iran war, from a new FT article. Following the invasion of Ukraine, new grain supply averted the worst. But we cannot magic up new supply of fertiliser. www.ft.com/content/27e0...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Really interesting article, and the central issue (of ensuring adaptation support is not regressive) will be a challenge everywhere. 'The culprit is a council tax calculation based on 1991 property values... Some of Britain’s poorest areas are emerging as the biggest losers [from] flood insurance.'
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Charles Kenny @charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
New paper and blog: emigration as a growth strategy. Even as the strategy of using manufactured exports to kickstart rapid growth is showing its age, a strategy focused on the movement of people rather than goods is coming into its own...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
The losses from the strikes on Qatar equal ~8% of Qatari GDP. Qatar hosts ~2.1 million migrant workers, who send ~$12 billion annually in remittances to countries such as India, Nepal, and the Philippines. Beyond even the energy price shocks, the effects of this war will be felt elsewhere.
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
'Malengo is a program that provides a loan for Ugandan students to attend university... [and] then get jobs in Germany... They now estimate that the program produces 28x the returns of a cash transfer program.'
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 18/03/2026
Interesting widget that got cut from an upcoming piece on UK Temporary Shortage List visas- Occupations (SOC2020) under consideration for TSL status by visas / country of origin / Industrial Strategy sector. (NB this graphic includes all visas, not just Skilled Worker- although most will be).
codepen.io
MAC-list visas by nationality
...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The politics of adaptation vs. retreat (who gets prioritised for expensive risk reduction) are going to get very dicey.
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Helen Dempster @helen-dempster.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Linking TVET w/ labour mobility could improve quality & outcomes, while supporting employers & economic growth: the manifestation of “aid in the national interest.” New @cgdev.org research w/ @irexintl.bsky.social outlines why donors should do this & how they can. www.cgdev.org/tags/skills-...
cgdev.org
Skills on the Move: Linking Labour Mobility and Vocational Training
Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) is often touted as an important tool in low- and middle-income countries struggling with high levels of unemployment and large skills gaps. As a ...
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
A really interesting article. What happens to people's adaptation choices and long-term migration plans when they are a) hit by floods but b) supported (or not!) by cash transfers designed to help adaptation?
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Sam Huckstep @samhuckstep.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
This is happening today! This will be a great cutting-edge discussion on a tricky policy area. I'm really looking forward to it. Do join us!
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