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jon ben-menachem @jbenmenachem.com · 29/09/2026

"Replication crisis" reforms like preregistration & pre-analysis plans were developed to control false positives in experimental research. Does that work in observational studies? Our new paper in Sociological Methods & Research argues for a different approach. 🧵 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

A Replication Framework for Observational Research: From Specification Restriction to Specification Expansion
Jonathan Ben-Menachem https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8092-0848 jbenmenachem@gmail.com, Ari Galper https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7909-8837, and Nic Fishman
Abstract
Sociology has remained relatively insulated from debates about the “replication crisis.” Heeding calls to consider replication more deeply, we introduce a distinction between two types of research reforms that have emerged in the wake of the crisis: specification-restricting and specification-expanding reforms. Specification restriction is often promoted as a way to increase the repeatability of research findings by controlling false positives. We argue that this statistical justification is less compelling in observational contexts—where the assumptions licensing false-positive control are harder to sustain and rigid ex ante analytical commitments can instead enshrine fragile specifications—than in experimental contexts. We further argue that apparently low replication rates do not necessarily imply a high prevalence of false positive findings. Instead, we propose a replication framework centered on specification-expanding reforms, stronger incentives for confirmatory research, and meta-analysis. This approach equips sociologists to assess the repeatability of findings and build a more cumulative discipline.

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Nora Neus @noraneus.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Researchers analyzed ICE activity during the surge and found that the share of foreign-born or non-citizen folks in a neighborhood did NOT affect ICE activity... but share of non-white folks, share of hispanic folks, and UNEMPLOYMENT RATE drove up ICE activity! Hence, "racialized class oppression."

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Nora Neus @noraneus.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Based on extensive data, Minnesota's ICE surge was "more about racialized class oppression than targeted immigration enforcement." !!! That's the stunning finding from Professor @ryanplarson.bsky.social and his colleagues. Stunning because it confirms what most folks already knew, now with DATA.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Great to participate in yesterday's "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org, @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co Got to share results from @lumaris.com's statewide survey of Minnesotans: www.lumaris.com/blog/2026/07...

Picture of a person presenting survey results at a conference

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Frederick Melo, Reporter (TwinCities.com, Pioneer Press) @frederickmelo.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

State‘s working on Operation Metro Surge report. Draft due by October; final report in December. Today is all-day panels, breakout sessions. Superintendent of Fridley Public Schools says 2/3rds of students stopped coming to class so they went full virtual. Over 100 students remained unaccounted for

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026

Tight match pre-Surge Estimates suggest surge caused crime to rise (p=0.063)

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026

UMN Criminologist & Soc Prof @chrisuggen.bsky.social : did crime drop, rise, or stay the same? For research, critical to ask compared to what... What would have happened otherwise? In the midst of national down trend, seasonal effects... What could drive effects? Deterrence, incapacitation...

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026

Highlights the importance of independent data gathering in an era, especially when feds not releasing data on operations.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026

Not more in neighborhoods with more foreign born or more non-citizens. Instead, more where more Hispanics and people of color.

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Michelle S. Phelps @michellesphelps.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Follow here for a live thread on new research and advocacy related to Operation Metro Surge in MN.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 22/09/2026

Sociology Asst Prof @ryanplarson.bsky.social lays out predictions of where & when DHS activity would concentrate under different theories of what's driving it. Takes it to the data.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 12/09/2026

Program's up! 30+ teams share evidence abt impacts on health, educ, & econ + community response. Great folks @ziibiing.com @ottergoose.net @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social @chrisuggen.bsky.social @casemcnich.bsky.social @ngraetz.bsky.social @craigstetter.bsky.social docs.google.com/document/u/1...

Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN

Conference Date: Sept 22, 2026

Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs

Purpose

In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began a significant, sustained agent surge in Minnesota that affected the daily lives of many residents, but had severe impacts on immigrant communities and communities of color.

This one-day, in-person convening provides researchers from across disciplines and organizations with an opportunity to share and discuss research related to the effects of Operation Metro Surge and Operation PARRIS.

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Chris Uggen @chrisuggen.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

New in Criminology! Punishment as a racialized package of confinement, cash, and surveillance. By @ryanplarson.bsky.social , @robertstewart.io , @veronicalhorowitz.bsky.social, and some old guy. This detailed thread by Ryan show ‘n tells the story.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 17/04/2026

When officers' identities are hidden, they commit more crime and so do others. #EconSky thomas-simon.org/publications...

Police Officer Identification, Misconduct, and Public Trust
Jul 1, 2025
·
Thomas SIMON
Thomas SIMON
,
Felix W. Vetter
,
Gerrit von Zedlitz
·
1 min read
Abstract
Policing in high-stakes mass gatherings often raises allegations of accountability and appropriate use of force. This paper investigates the impact of a police oversight reform that introduced identification tags for police officers deployed at mass events. Using the staggered state-level implementation of such tags in Germany, we study how they affect misconduct, crime, and public trust. Exploiting daily district-level administrative data on police misconduct and criminal activity, we find that officer misconduct declines by 65% following the reform. Civilian crime rates remain stable or decline slightly, countering concerns that heightened oversight reduces policing efforts. Survey evidence further shows increased public trust in the police. Our findings suggest that low-cost transparency measures can reduce frictions in public prosecutions and improve police accountability without compromising public safety.

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Asad L. Asad @asadasad.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

NEW (and open access!) in @pnas.org: We find that Secure Communities triggered “preemptive” immigration enforcement, increasing detentions, transfers, & removals even before formal county activation. Joint with @cvargas100.bsky.social and @immigrationlab.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....

Screenshot of title and abstract of article, “Reconsideration of Secure Communities rollout reveals preemptive local-federal cooperation in immigration enforcement.”

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Chris Uggen @chrisuggen.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

New! How homicide changed in Minnesota’s Twin Cities after the police murder of George Floyd. Check out @ryanplarson.bsky.com’s thread (and data viz) and/or our team’s new article in J of Quant Crim.

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Fresh in JQC w/@jillkpeterson.bsky.social , @chrisuggen.bsky.social, and others! We use an ITS design to examine the changes in the Twin Cities in relation to the pandemic and the police murder of George Floyd. Finding summaries below! Link here: link.springer.com/article/10.1... 1/n

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 25/02/2026

Many workers have missed shifts without jobs being destroyed making it challenging to measure labor impacts with conventional sources. We use real-time daily data from Homebase to measure impacts. Thanks to UChicago and Homebase for making the data available. #EconSky #NumbersDay

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Chris Uggen @chrisuggen.bsky.social · 25/01/2026

We're mourning yet again in Minnesota — and struggling to square the gut-churning video of Alex Pretti's final moments with official accounts. I'm teaching techniques of neutralization this term, so I made this quick slide on the DHS statement. Share if it's useful. www.nytimes.com/live/2026/us...

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Samuel Perry @profsamperry.bsky.social · 17/01/2026

Man, Du Bois had some bangers, but for me, it doesn't get much better than his scathing indictment of the "Christianity" of the United States. Certainly this was all true of the nation in his lifetime. But in my lifetime, his criticisms have never felt so true of the nation right now.

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

There are many signs of the fear and distress people are feeling in my home town of Minneapolis. One signal of elevated strain is the rise in 911 calls for help — up about 9% daily in the new year relative to previous daily averages across 2020-2024.

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Kyle Walker @kylewalker.bsky.social · 04/02/2025

Unfortunately, all Census TIGER/Line and cartographic boundary shapefiles are down as of this evening. This means that the tigris #rstats and pygris #Python packages will not work, and geometry support in tidycensus will also fail. The Census API, for now, is still up.

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