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Aaron Rosenthal

@aaronrosenthal.bsky.social
383 followers 413 following 49 posts

Research Director @northstarpolicy.org. Author of The State You See. Love MN sports = often sad. Views own.

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Reposted by Aaron Rosenthal
Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Great to participate in yesterday's "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org, @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co Got to share results from @lumaris.com's statewide survey of Minnesotans: www.lumaris.com/blog/2026/07...
Picture of a person presenting survey results at a conference
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
We could really use a serious federal government right now. I'm pretty confident that the next time a rogue AI attack is in the news, the consequences will be far more serious. And we'll wonder why we didn't do anything sooner. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/11/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | This Is Really Bad
We can no longer pretend that A.I. is safe.
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
New report tracks state aid to public schools in MN and shows how far we've fallen. How can we possibly expect better results from our students and schools when we're not investing in them? Find your own school district at our interactive dashboard: northstarpolicy.org/school-fundi...
northstarpolicy.org
Minnesota School Funding | North Star Policy Action
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Nathan Coulter @nathancoulter.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
And that’s just if they split 50-50 with their employees. They could pick up the whole tab if they want to. #mnleg
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Top two stories in today's Strib newsletter. But yeah, MN corporations are really struggling to pay a 0.44% payroll tax so parents can have 12 weeks to spend with their newborns. Getting rid of that should be our priority. And two more things:
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 25/07/2026
Sept 22 research conference at UMN HHH on the Impacts of DHS Operations in Minnesota Works in progress welcome. Quantitative or mixed-methods multidisciplinary. Due 8/13. #CallForProposals docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Documenting the Impact of DHS Activity in Minnesota: Presenter and Attendee Interest Form
Due date for presentation proposals: 11:59 pm CT, Thursday, August 13, 2026.

In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began a significant, sustained agent surge in Minnesota that affected the daily lives of many residents, but had severe impacts on immigrant communities and communities of color. Documenting the Impact of DHS Activity in Minnesota will be a one-day, in-person convening on Tuesday, September 22 at the University of Minnesota's Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs that will provide researchers from across disciplines with an opportunity to share and discuss completed research and works in progress related to the effects of Operation Metro Surge and Operation PARRIS.

We welcome proposals to present research and data analysis - including work in progress - on DHS activity in Minnesota and the impacts of that activity on Minnesota residents, businesses, and communities. These impacts include economic, service, educational, and other impacts, including violations of human rights (e.g., due process, access to education, housing, food, work, and healthcare, freedom of movement, freedom of religion, freedom of expression, right to privacy). The impacts also include the emergence and expansion of supportive community responses, such as the growth of mutual aid networks and networks to warn residents of DHS incursions. Quantitative and mixed-methods research will be given priority, although qualitative proposals are also welcome. 

We anticipate that there will be no registration fee to attend (pending conference sponsorship); however, presenters and other attendees will be responsible for any travel and lodging costs.

While not an official proceeding of The Governor’s Council to Record the Truth of Operation Metro Surge and Operation PARRIS on Minnesotans, the Truth Council's implementing organization, The Advocates for Human Rights, will…Conference Planning Committee
John Budd, Professor, Carlson School of Management, University of Minnesota
Elizabeth Davis, Professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota
Ezra Golberstein, Professor, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota
Erik Larson, Professor, Department of Sociology, Macalaster College
José Pacas, Dir. of Data Leadership & Investment, Constellation Lab at the Constellation Fund
Stacey Pelika, Research Director, National Education Association (acting in a personal capacity)
Aaron Rosenthal, Research Director, North Star Policy Action
Aaron Sojourner, Senior Economist, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Joe Soss, Professor, Humphrey School of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota
Christopher Uggen, Professor, Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota
Darcy Vandegrift, Research Manager, The Metropolitan Council
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 24/07/2026
Exciting opportunity to present research on the impact of DHS activity in MN at an upcoming convening on September 22nd. Please spread to your networks and feel free to reach out to me if you have any questions! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Documenting the Impact of DHS Activity in Minnesota: Presenter and Attendee Interest Form
Due date for presentation proposals: 11:59 pm CT, Thursday, August 13, 2026. In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began a significant, sustained agent surge in Minnesota t...
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 07/07/2026
New North Star Policy Action research: the federal government's pause on onshore wind energy development is putting 1,200 Minnesota construction jobs and $1.6 billion in investment at risk.
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
Appreciate @kstptv.bsky.social covering the report from @aaronsojourner.org and me concerning Operation Metro Surge's Impact on Minnesota's leisure and hospitality sector. We must remember this economic cost AND continue to center the human suffering caused by DHS.
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Minnesota Reformer @minnesotareformer.com · 02/06/2026
Study: Operation Metro Surge cost Minnesota an estimated 4,600 hospitality jobs in 3 months minnesotareformer.com/briefs/study...
minnesotareformer.com
Study: Operation Metro Surge cost Minnesota an estimated 4,600 hospitality jobs in 3 months • Minnesota Reformer
Operation Metro Surge cost Minnesota’s leisure and hospitality sector an estimated 4,600 jobs and $71 million in wages, according to a new study. The analysis of the economic fallout from the unpreced...
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Upjohn Institute @upjohninstitute.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Our own @aaronsojourner.org and @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social of North Star Policy Action have published a new analysis of the economic impacts of Operation Metro Surge.
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Proud of this work with @aaronsojourner.org to show Operation Metro Surge's effect on Minnesota's economy. Our latest focuses on what may be the most impacted industry in the state: leisure and hospitality. We must remember that beneath these numbers are thousands of stories of human suffering.
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 15/05/2026
A recent Star Tribune headline declared the $15 minimum wage in the Twin Cities caused "higher pay, fewer jobs" — citing research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pushed by the industry group Hospitality Minnesota.
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 04/05/2026
The grades are in — Minnesota just got its ASCE Infrastructure Report Card, and the results aren't good. The MN Senate has a bonding bill on the table right now. This is how we change the grade. #MNLeg #MNSenate #northstarpolicyaction
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 24/04/2026
Our latest analysis featured in the Minnesota Reformer: ICE is bad for business. New data show Operation Metro Surge cost Minnesota thousands of jobs, including 5,700 in hospitality and 4,400 in construction. minnesotareformer.com/2026/04/23/r...
minnesotareformer.com
Report: Operation Metro Surge cost Minnesota thousands of jobs in hospitality, construction • Minnesota Reformer
Federal employment data shows Minnesota lost 5,700 hospitality jobs and 4,400 construction jobs from December to February.
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 13/04/2026
“Most of the human cost of the past few months cannot be undone through state assistance. But the economic damage from Operation Metro Surge provides an opportunity for the state to take meaningful, reparative action.” 👏👏👏 — @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, Research Director at NSPA Source: WCCO
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 07/04/2026
NEW REPORT: State data confirms that Operation Metro Surge had a damaging impact on Minnesota’s economy, particularly for workers and businesses in the Twin Cities. northstarpolicy.org/metro-surge-...
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 17/03/2026
Today we testified before the MN House Workforce, Labor & Economic Development Committee on our research on Generative AI’s impacts on MN workers. The testimony comes as lawmakers introduce bills to set guardrails for AI in the workplace. www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kh4B...
youtube.com
Minnesota and AI Worker Protections
YouTube video by North Star Policy Action
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 04/03/2026
800,000 Minnesota workers are at high risk of exposure to generative AI. AI is rapidly reshaping workplaces but Minnesota lawmakers have yet to pass any AI regulations or worker protections. Our Research Director outlined the paths for moving forward on WCCO: www.youtube.com/shorts/lsCLK...
youtube.com
What path is Minnesota going to take?
YouTube video by North Star Policy Action
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Center for American Progress @americanprogress.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
"Marching alongside of you has been the greatest joy of my life." The Pitt star Noah Wyles gives a big shoutout to labor unions during his SAG Actor Awards speech 👏
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madi mcvan @madisonmcvan.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
really enjoyed this data piece from my colleague @alyssachen.bsky.social digging into the early estimates of the economic impact of operation metro surge: minnesotareformer.com/2026/03/02/m...
minnesotareformer.com
Measuring the economic damage of Minnesota’s ICE surge is hard • Minnesota Reformer
Emerging statistics on the economic impact of Operation Metro Surge to Minnesota — $203.1 million in damage in Minneapolis, $106 million in lost wages in the Twin Cities — are based on limited data an...
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madi mcvan @madisonmcvan.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
the early estimates of economic damage from the surge are based on some broad assumptions and back-of-the-napkin math. a more complete picture will emerge over the next year or so — but @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social says lawmakers can't wait that long to send relief.
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Laura Jedeed @laurajedeed.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
The world could be such a nice place if we allowed it. It's all so goddamn unnecessary. There's no need for any of it. It's so beautiful here. It should be so cool to be alive
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 27/02/2026
@wailinwong.bsky.social @planetmoney.bsky.social @npr.org featured @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social's & my estimate of DHS causing $106 million in lost wages for MSP metro workers as her Indicator of the week. Thanks for doing such a great job communicating the results. www.npr.org/2026/02/27/n...
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Jake Schwitzer @jakeschwitzer.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
I am so proud of the team at @northstarpolicy.org. Churning out ground breaking research on the taxpayer cost of Operation Metro Surge, the economic devastation wrought, the threat posed by AI to working Minnesotans. Testifying at the Capitol, everywhere in the media.
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Twin Cities Research Group @tcresearchgroup.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
TCRG Webinar: @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social and @aaronsojourner.org on the Economic Impact of Operation Metro Surge. WebEx, March 18, 12 Noon. RSVP at tcrgmarch18.eventbrite.com
tcrgmarch18.eventbrite.com
TCRG Webinar: the Economic Impact of Operation Metro Surge
Aaron Rosenthal and Aaron Sojourner present on "the Economic Impact of Operation Metro Surge"
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Great conversation on aligning AI innovation with worker welfare in Minnesota. Hoping that the three D's of AI regulation (displacement, decision-making, and digital surveillance) catch on and lead us to some commonsense reforms!
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Chris Uggen @chrisuggen.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Social Indicators of the Surge — Labor Edition @aaronsojourner.org & @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social show how the DHS surge reduced the # of employees working, hours worked, and # of businesses open in Mpls-Saint Paul, costing an estimated $106 million in lost wages. northstarpolicy.org/labor-outcom...
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Jake Grumbach @jakemgrumbach.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Looks like some very important research on the effect of the occupation of Minneapolis-Saint Paul
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
The economic costs of a police state
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 25/02/2026
BREAKING: In just six weeks, Minnesota workers lost over $100 million in wages due to Operation Metro Surge. This means millions of dollars didn’t make it to Minnesota families and small businesses, a conservative estimate that likely understates the full impact.
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Ben Zipperer @benzipperer.org · 25/02/2026
The DHS agent surge in Minnesota reduced employees working in the MSP metro by 2.8%, total hours worked by 1.9%, and open business locations by 1.7% through mid-February. Estimated impact: $106 million in lost wages. new research from @aaronsojourner.org and @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social
From the report: "The figure above shows a set of day-specific estimated effects of the agent surge on employees working measured in percentage points. Each blue dot represents how many percentage points away the number of employees clocking in was from its expected value. Expectations are measured based on trends in other metro areas with similar trends in the years leading up to this period. The grey area describes a margin of error."
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Jared Bernstein @jaredb-econ.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance!
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 25/02/2026
Many workers have missed shifts without jobs being destroyed making it challenging to measure labor impacts with conventional sources. We use real-time daily data from Homebase to measure impacts. Thanks to UChicago and Homebase for making the data available. #EconSky #NumbersDay
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
New research with @aaronsojourner.org of the @upjohninstitute.bsky.social posted on @northstarpolicy.org's blog. We find that Operation Metro Surge caused declines in employees working, hours worked, and businesses open, leading to an estimated $106 million wage loss for Twin Cities workers.
northstarpolicy.org
Impact of DHS Agent Surge on Minneapolis-Saint Paul Metro Area Labor Outcomes | North Star Policy Action
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 24/02/2026
Our new report makes three things clear: 1. AI plays an increasingly large role in MN workers' lives. 2. Workers are anxious about this role and believe new regulations are needed. 3. MN policymakers need to pass commonsense laws to align AI innovation with worker welfare.
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 20/02/2026
The damage compounds: • Missed paychecks reduce consumer spending.
• Child care disruptions prevent parents from working.
• Housing construction declines worsen affordability.
• Food processing slowdowns affect Minnesota farmers.
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Upjohn Institute @upjohninstitute.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Our own @aaronsojourner.org and @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social of North Star Policy Action have published an analysis on the economic impacts of Operation Metro Surge.
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
New analysis w/ @aaronsojourner.org finds consumer spending declined by 2.9% in MN in Jan 2026 due to Operation Metro Surge, resulting in a loss of $626 million. Bigger losses in food and accommodation spending (3.8% in MN, 4.1% in Hennepin County). northstarpolicy.org/impact-metro...
northstarpolicy.org
The Economic Impact of Operation Metro Surge in January 2026: A Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Analysis | North Star Policy Action
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 13/02/2026
Twin Cities' (Hennepin+Ramsey) counties filings for evictions up 40% in Jan 2026 over 2023-24 baseline @evictionlab.bsky.social. In raw counts, +9% to 1,330 in Jan 2026 from 1,220 in prior month. In baseline years (2023 & 2024), filings lower in Jans than Decs. evictionlab.org/eviction-tra...
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North Star Policy Action @northstarpolicy.org · 12/02/2026
Operation Metro Surge may be ending but the long-term human and economic impacts are still unfolding. Federal officials have announced that immigration enforcement in Minnesota will draw down, but ICE activity remains in the state and it’s not yet clear how conditions on the ground are changing.
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Laura Jedeed @laurajedeed.bsky.social · 03/02/2026
THEY ARE FILMING EVERYTHING THEY'RE DOING THEY ARE PROUD OF IT THEY ARE POSTING IT TO SOCIAL MEDIA
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Carin @mrotzie.bsky.social · 02/02/2026
You love to see it
politico.com
Tina Smith endorses Peggy Flanagan over Angie Craig in Minnesota Senate race
The retiring senator is choosing a fellow progressive and lieutenant governor as her successor over moderate Rep. Angie Craig.
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Laura Jedeed @laurajedeed.bsky.social · 31/01/2026
Absolutely surreal to continue to hear about drawdowns and lowered temperatures and things calming down in Minneapolis when, as far as I can tell, literally nothing has changed on the ground
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Erin Maye Quade @erinmayequade.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
Tighten rules on warrants? Body cameras? HOW ABOUT A SIGNED JUDICIAL WARRANT FOR EVERYTHING! HOW ABOUT THEY LEAVE MINNESOTA AND NEVER CARRY OUT ANYTHING AKIN TO MINNESOTA IN ANY OTHER STATE. I DON'T WANT BODY CAMERA FOOTAGE OF THE ATROCITIES I WANT THEM TO STOP. I AM SO FUCKING FURIOUS!!!!
threads.com
Rep. Joaquin Castro (@joaquincastrotx) on Threads
Just visited with Liam and his father at Dilley detention center. I demanded his release and told him how much his family, his school, and our country loves him and is praying for him.
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Steve @noslracs.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
This is Minneapolis. Collective trauma, and neighbors helping neighbors. This is our 24/7 every day lives right now, not just a 10 second news clip.
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Jake Schwitzer @jakeschwitzer.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
It was great talking to @ddayen.bsky.social for this article, which makes the great point that not only has MN's CEO response to the occupation been pathetic, these corporations all put their resources behind the bill that enabled it. They got us into this mess, they can pay to get us out.
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Aaron Rosenthal @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social · 28/01/2026
A big thanks to @ddayen.bsky.social of the @prospect.org for taking the time to talk to @northstarpolicy.org about the damage being done to Minnesota workers and businesses by ICE, and the complicity of so many MN-based corporations in this campaign of terror.
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