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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Not only are the packaging effects conditioned by sentencing context, but so is the racialization in sentencing - we see more robust race effects among non-presumptive prison cases for both probation and LFOs.

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

How does this change the picture of the race effects? For LFOs, the IV race effects are substantively similar, but probation for Black and Native American defendants is higher as compared to White (~7.4% and 66%) - highlighting how packaging can mask important sentencing racial disparities.

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

We find that a 1% increase in instrumented incarceration results in a 0.27% decrease in LFOs and a 2.3% decrease in probation. Importantly, sentencing context moderates these effects - with more packaging malleability at lower levels of sentencing (i.e., non-presumptive prison).

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

We model the interdependency of incarceration and probation/LFOs using IV models leveraging county jail capacity as an instrument. In the first stage, capacity interacts with sentencing context - pushing felony-level cases towards prison and GM cases to lower confinement to reduce overcrowding.

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

These "extra-legal" race effects hold up in standard multivariate models that adjust for legal, defendant, and case factors, with BIPOC defendants associated with 13-39% more incarceration, 19-29% lower probation, and 7-46% lower LFOs compared to white defendants (depending on the group).

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

First, we descriptively show that the overall racialized pattern in sentenced punishment reveals a bifurcation along the lines of race, with White defendants receiving longer community surveillance and larger monetary punishments, and BIPOC defendants receiving longer confinement sentences.

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Fourth, we observe a decrease in MPD stops after the murder, and reduced proactive policing explains a meaningful portion (~25%) of the post-murder increase in homicide, suggesting that both de-policing and broader social and institutional mechanisms were also at work. 5/n

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Third, the the post-murder homicide surge locally was spatially uneven and disproportionately concentrated in structurally disadvantaged neighborhoods. 4/n

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Second, we show that not only did the quantity of homicide changed, but so did the quality. We observe argument and felony crime incidents among adults driving the overall increase. 3/n

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

First, homicide rates rose from an average of 0.11 to 0.28 per 100,000 (about 2.5x). Net of pandemic outcomes, policy, and movement and seasonality we identify an effect of + 0.28 homicides per 100,000 - equivalent to ~ 183 excess homicides in the period. 2/n

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 02/03/2026

Fresh in JQC w/@jillkpeterson.bsky.social , @chrisuggen.bsky.social, and others! We use an ITS design to examine the changes in the Twin Cities in relation to the pandemic and the police murder of George Floyd. Finding summaries below! Link here: link.springer.com/article/10.1... 1/n

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Ryan Larson @ryanplarson.bsky.social · 16/01/2026

There are many signs of the fear and distress people are feeling in my home town of Minneapolis. One signal of elevated strain is the rise in 911 calls for help — up about 9% daily in the new year relative to previous daily averages across 2020-2024.

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