iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I got curious about how absentee voting is going here in Minnesota, so I looked it up and added this graph to the bottom of my MN Polling Roundup. As of today, Sec. of State is reporting: 424,515 absentee ballots requested 63,396 already accepted More: craigstetter.substack.com/p/minnesota-...

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Just Updated, with two new polls and the latest forecaster ratings. The upshot: the national blue wave is not notable in Minnesota craigstetter.substack.com/p/minnesota-...

craigstetter.substack.com

Minnesota election polling round-up (Sept. 30 update)

New polls in races for U.S. Senate and Minnesota's U.S. House District 1 show tight races

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

“What does the Constitution require of American presidents? …A very large majority, 70%, said that ‘All presidents have a duty to enforce all the laws, with no exceptions.’” My latest, with Eric Plutzer, featuring findings from a recent Mood of the Nation Poll democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...

democracy.psu.edu

Americans weigh in on presidential and citizen responsibilities to the rule of law - The McCourtney Institute for Democracy

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Join us! This will be a chance to dig even deeper into the @lumaris.com survey results that we presented at the Sept 22 the "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co.

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 03/08/2026

4 in 10 Minnesotans planned to travel for vacation this summer. Most who travel are leaving the state, while Lake Superior's North Shore still tops the list for those who stay. New Minnesota Community Survey analysis.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 24/09/2026

"the data show that while the overall opinion toward Minnesota only dropped slightly, this was driven by a 6 point drop among those identifying as Republican" craigstetter.medium.com/nationally-m...

Graph showing favorability rates for 4 states according to respondent political affiliation

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Great to participate in yesterday's "Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN" event convened by @aaronsojourner.org, @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social, @spelika.bsky.social & co Got to share results from @lumaris.com's statewide survey of Minnesotans: www.lumaris.com/blog/2026/07...

Picture of a person presenting survey results at a conference

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

This is what I’ll be talking about at the upcoming Sept 22 research conference at UMN HHH on the Impacts of DHS Operations in Minnesota, put on by @aaronsojourner.org @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social & co

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 12/09/2026

Program's up! 30+ teams share evidence abt impacts on health, educ, & econ + community response. Great folks @ziibiing.com @ottergoose.net @aaronrosenthal.bsky.social @chrisuggen.bsky.social @casemcnich.bsky.social @ngraetz.bsky.social @craigstetter.bsky.social docs.google.com/document/u/1...

Documenting the Impact of US DHS Activity in MN

Conference Date: Sept 22, 2026

Hubert H. Humphrey School of Public Affairs

Purpose

In December 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began a significant, sustained agent surge in Minnesota that affected the daily lives of many residents, but had severe impacts on immigrant communities and communities of color.

This one-day, in-person convening provides researchers from across disciplines and organizations with an opportunity to share and discuss research related to the effects of Operation Metro Surge and Operation PARRIS.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

Who cross-country skis in the US? ..a clip from my experiment using AI to animate a survey article I wrote. Your cheers and jeers are welcome. See the whole video and find out more about this experiment, as well as the surveys: craigstetter.substack.com/p/who-cross-... #crosscountryskiing

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American Association for Public Opinion Research @aapor.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Transparency in #surveyresearch is more important than ever. Through the #AAPOR Transparency Initiative, orgs commit to routinely disclosing key methodological details so the public, journalists & other research consumers can better understand how findings were produced. Learn more: aapor.org?p=234

aapor.org

Transparency Initiative - AAPOR

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 21/08/2026

Hey fellow skiers! I was able to field some questions about cross-country skiing in two high-quality national surveys, via @verasight.io & @ipsosus.bsky.social due to my @aapor.bsky.social membership Check out the results and let me know what you think craigstetter.medium.com/1-in-7-ameri...

craigstetter.medium.com

1 in 7 American adults have cross-country skied. Who are they?

If you cross-country skied last year, you are in the one percent!

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Do you run🏃‍♂️, golf ⛳️, downhill or cross-country ski ⛷️, or play basketball 🏀, tennis🎾, pickleball🥒 or soccer⚽️? Then check out some new survey results from questions I was able to field with @ipsosus.bsky.social as a part of their @aapor.bsky.social omnibus this year medium.com/runners-life...

medium.com

Survey: Running Is the Most Popular of Eight Lifelong Sports

Who really plays basketball, pickleball, and soccer?

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

solid kicker from the NYT polling crew www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/p...

Without further explanation, the statement about the experiment ended with a message that stood in contrast to the confused reaction that followed from people throughout the polling world: “Thank you for your understanding.”

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

If you are from Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa or California, and wonder what Americans think about your state I have some interesting new survey findings for you craigstetter.medium.com/nationally-m... Includes a little bit of info about AI & even pickleball @ipsosus.bsky.social @aapor.bsky.social

craigstetter.medium.com

Nationally, Minnesota’s favorability has fallen and become more polarized

Ratings of Wisconsin, Iowa and California all increased and became less polarized

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 27/07/2026

Most Minnesotans — 63% — say last winter's surge in federal immigration agents hurt the state's economy. Republicans are evenly divided, while 84% of Democrats say the surge hurt the economy. New Minnesota Community Survey analysis.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

My latest: More findings from @lumaris.com's summer 2026 Minnesota Community Survey, this time highlighting the travel plans of Minnesotans. I was fortunate to be able to travel to MN's North Shore again this summer. How about you?

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Lindell had the lowest net favorability rating, just below Trump, in @lumaris.com's most recent Minnesota Community Survey www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

Lindell had the lowest net favorability rating, just below Trump, in @lumaris.com's most recent Minnesota Community Survey www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso...

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 03/07/2026

Minnesotans are far warier of the country's next 50 years than their state's — 67% concerned about the nation vs. 49% about Minnesota. Democrats are the only party more hopeful than concerned about the state, and Black Minnesotans are the most hopeful of any racial or ethnic group, at 41%.

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 02/07/2026

Amy Klobuchar leads Minnesota's political field at +17 net favorability; Mike Lindell trails at −37. Trump sits at −30 — his lowest in the state since summer 2025. Across four surveys, most figures' ratings have slipped. Klobuchar is the exception.

Lumaris card: Minnesota net favorability, summer 2026 — Sen. Amy Klobuchar at +17, the highest in the field; Mike Lindell at −37, the lowest. Source: Minnesota Community Survey.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

Liberty ✔️Only 14% said that our system of government was doing an excellent job “Ensuring that citizens can express their views, even when they are unpopular” and ✔️17% gave a grade of excellent for “Ensuring that citizens can worship, think, and travel as they please.” #USA250

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 01/07/2026

In MN, immigrants are 4x as likely as the U.S. born to be following the World Cup (46% vs. 11%). Plus, more than 4 in 10 Black and Latino Minnesotans are following, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 White Minnesotans.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

Governor’s race: Klobuchar has the highest net favorability rating, followed by Demuth Senate: Craig has a slightly higher net favorability rating than Flanagan More via @lumarispoll www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso... #MNpol

Graph showing favorability ratings for Minnesota political figures

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

NEW! Where 11 Minnesota political figures stand on favorability, from Klobuchar (+17) to Lindell (-37), according to @lumaris.com's statewide probability survey www.lumaris.com/blog/minneso... #MNpol

lumaris.com

Minnesota politics favorability tracker, May/June 2026

Where 11 Minnesota political figures stand on favorability, from Klobuchar (+17) to Lindell (-37), according to our statewide probability survey.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

250 years after the Declaration how would you grade the government's protection of life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness? C+ from America overall, incl: ✔️C from Democrats ✔️B- from Republicans My latest with Eric Plutzer via McCourtney Institute for Democracy democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...

Graph showing poll results: Americans grading of the government's protection of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

Fun stuff! ...and this (nearly) life-long Minnesotan still missed a few (91%)

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 11/04/2026

The most recent @lumaris.com survey found Nearly 3 in 4 MN Republicans say they have heard a lot about fraud compared to only half of MN Democrats Not sure why. What do you think? • Rep are more informed • Dems are more humble • Different news preferences • Other? www.lumaris.com/blog/most-mi...

pie graphs showing Nearly 3 in 4 Minnesota Republicans say they have heard a lot about fraud, compared to half of the state's Democrats

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 02/04/2026

New: Three-quarters of Minnesotans call government fraud a problem, but blame splits sharply by party: 76% of Republicans say Walz is "very responsible" for letting it happen vs. 8% of Democrats. Notable: 40% of Dems say Walz is "somewhat" responsible. www.lumaris.com/blog/most-mi...

lumaris.com

Most Minnesotans say fraud in state programs is a problem. How much do they blame Walz?

Only 8% of Minnesota Democrats say Walz is very responsible for letting government fraud happen, vs. 76% of Republicans. Based on a statewide probability survey of more than 1,100 adults.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 02/04/2026

NEW from @lumaris.com (& yours truly) Poll: Only 8% of Minnesota Democrats say Walz is *very* responsible for letting government fraud happen, vs. 76% of Republicans. -statewide probability survey of more than 1,100 adults www.lumaris.com/blog/most-mi...

lumaris.com

Most Minnesotans say fraud in state programs is a problem. How much do they blame Walz?

Only 8% of Minnesota Democrats say Walz is very responsible for letting government fraud happen, vs. 76% of Republicans. Based on a statewide probability survey of more than 1,100 adults.

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Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

The "being struck by lightning" item here is a fun little way to benchmark whether respondents are exaggerating perceived risk on other items. democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...

Poll asking how likely Americans think it is that they'll lose their job, fall behind on payments, fall victim to a serious crime or be struck by lightning

Are respondents exaggerating risks or are they realistic?

Sometimes, poll results reflect “expressive responding,” where survey respondents exaggerate to make a political point. But we do not see strong evidence of exaggerating the risks from job loss, missing housing payments or crime victimization...On the other hand, Americans may be over-estimating the realistic probability of being struck by lightning. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, “the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are less than one in a million.” Even so, 95% felt that being struck by lightning was not too likely or not likely at all, which suggests respondents were reading the questions carefully rather than saying they were concerned about everything.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

My latest analysis of Mood of the Nation Poll results 📋 with Eric Plutzer for The McCourtney Institute for Democracy finds (among other things) that way more Americans think it is likely they will be struck by lightning ⚡ than is actually the case... democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-...

Bar graph showing that Job loss and falling behind in housing payment seen as more likely than serious crime or being struck by lightning, according to a February 2026 Mood of the Nation Poll

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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

Democrats have edge in congressional generic ballot. (McCourtney Institute for Democracy) More, via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/260311-top...

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 10/03/2026

My latest with Eric Plutzer: A look at NEW @pennstateuniv.bsky.social Mood of the Nation Poll Democrats up +5️⃣ in Congressional generic ballot Plus: REASONS for votes via open-ends🤔 AND voter's thoughts about logic of rival voters🤯 democracy.psu.edu/poll-report-... @democracyminute.bsky.social

word cloud: Democrats thoughts on what motivates Republican voters

word cloud: Republicans thoughts on what motivates Democratic voters

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Lumaris Research @lumaris.com · 24/02/2026

What are Minnesotans actually thinking and experiencing amid the recent immigration enforcement surge? Join Lumaris Research for the first release of new statewide survey data capturing real voices from across Minnesota. 📅 Feb 25 | 10 AM CT 🔗 Register: www.eventbrite.com/e/where-minn...

eventbrite.com

Where Minnesotans Stand: New Statewide Survey on Immigration Enforcement

New statewide representative survey reveals Minnesotans’ experiences with immigration enforcement. Join Lumaris for the briefing.

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Craig Helmstetter @craigstetter.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Join me for a FREE @lumaris.com webinar this Wed (2/25) @ 10:00 Central Where Minnesotans Stand: New Statewide Survey on Immigration Enforcement Includes a look at how opinions & experiences differ according to political affiliation and immigrant status www.eventbrite.com/e/where-minn...

eventbrite.com

Where Minnesotans Stand: New Statewide Survey on Immigration Enforcement

New statewide representative survey reveals Minnesotans’ experiences with immigration enforcement. Join Lumaris for the briefing.

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