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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

I am extremely proud to support the Vote YES on Measure D campaign for fairer Irvine municipal elections. 🗳️ No spoiler candidates. Real majority winners. More civil campaigns. It's time to upgrade our elections.

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Reposted by Ryan Dack

FairVote @fairvote.bsky.social · 16/07/2026

Irvine, CA will vote on a #RankedChoiceVoting ballot measure this November. If it's approved, Irvine will use ranked choice voting to elect its mayor and city council members as early as 2028. @calrcv.bsky.social bit.ly/3Rjf5jN

bit.ly

Irvine, CA will vote on ranked choice voting in November - FairVote

If the measure passes, Irvine will use ranked choice voting to elect its mayor and city council members as early as 2028.

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Reposted by Ryan Dack

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 01/07/2026

Oh man. This chart of the #COGov GOP primary is an all-timer from the gambling markets. They know the winner neither before polls close nor after! (And we don't, either: The race remains uncalled, with Kirkmeyer ahead by just 953 votes.)

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

The Kalshi gamblers have done it again.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Orange County is dropping today at 5PM, according to their countdown clock. ocvote.gov/results/curr...

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Supervisor Foley is favored in November, but I'm sure her team was looking to lock this up in June. Vellema's presence on the ballot is making this race get dragged out for another 5 months.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

Looking at the remaining vote, Supervisor Foley will need to win between 58-60% of what is left in her contest to get over 50%. The last few updates have had her winning the counted ballots with 52%. It improves her vote share, and she will be leading soon, but isn't enough to avoid a runoff.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Not a dumb question because some of these county board races are intentionally different. For OC board of supervisors, if no candidate gets 50% of the vote, the top two vote letters are on the ballot on November For OC board of education, the top vote getter wins regardless of percentage.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

So, with a large chunk of the vote outstanding, I would absolutely not be surprised if Katrina Foley not only overtakes Dixon in the next few days but also clears 50% of the vote. Time will tell, and that first vote drop today will be instructive, but there's a reason these races have no calls yet.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

I say OC turnout is 'at least' 37.3% because there are still ballots in the mail system that haven't been received by the ROV. As long as they have been postmarked by 6/2 and received within two weeks, those votes will count. The gov race dynamics probably means a lot of blue voters voted late.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

Update on Orange County's outstanding vote and what that means for races like OC Board of Supervisors, District 5. Current turnout is 26.9%, but if you add in the 200k unprocessed ballots received by the OC Registrar of Voters, that turnout rate jumps to AT LEAST 37.3% Turnout in 2022 was 35.2%

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

It happened twice tonight out of the three elections that were being held in FL. 🤔

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Reposted by Ryan Dack

The Downballot @the-downballot.com · 24/03/2026

BREAKING: Democrats just flipped the Florida House district that includes Mar-a-Lago. Yes, Donald Trump is going to be represented by a Democrat. Our complete recap -->

the-downballot.com

Florida Democrats flip Donald Trump's home district in Palm Beach

Emily Gregory will now represent Mar-a-Lago—and Trump himself

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

It's really just comical at this point. I don't even know what there is left to say.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

The gambling markets have done it again. Masterful work, gamblers.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/03/2026

"Wisdom of the crowds! Wisdom of the crowds!!" I shout into the void.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

No write-ins allowed. Ballot from 2022 in orange county.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Gambling odds only reflect gamblers sentiment. Why does anyone care what gamblers think!? They don't have any special knowledge, as evidenced by the multiple examples of 70-93% odds completely flipping and ending up as losers.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

The problem is this happens CONSTANTLY. MS-02(R): Wilson @93 5 days before e-day (L) TX-Sen (R): Cornyn @91 to place second before polls close, (1st) NJ-11(D): Malinowski @90% to win, (L) The gamblers don't really know much more than some other ding dong. News media citing this stuff is insane

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

A 25% outcome hitting three times in a row is ~1.6% (1 in 64).

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Big day for people using gambling sites as sources of data to tell how a race is going

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Another L for the "wisdom of crowds" crowd. Ignore this trash!

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

All these "markets" measure is the sentiment of gambling addicts.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

High-speed visual of gamblers being loudly wrong until they get punched in the face by reality. Stop using betting markets as reportable "data." It’s worthless.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 25/12/2025

Merry Christmas! 🎄 My present to all this year is access to high resolution versions of the maps I've posted in the last month. Enjoy! 🎁 drive.google.com/drive/folder...

drive.google.com

Prop 50 Maps - Google Drive

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 25/12/2025

The new 40th only voted No on 50 by about 5.2 points.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 25/12/2025

I think the new CA-40 is in play personally, despite it functionally being a Republican vote sink. I have heard the DCCC doesn't think it is, so I doubt national money will play here. I feel OC BOS District 1 can be in play with a high profile viet dem, but Janet N. is still a strong incumbent.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Finally, Prop 50 results by precinct in Orange County. The largest Yes margin came from the UCI student housing communities precinct (Camino del Sol) 96.5% of voters voted Yes on Prop 50 The largest No margin came from a gated community in Laguna Niguel along Morning Dove 84.6% voted No

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Prop 50 results by Orange County Cities and CDPs

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/12/2025

Prop 50 results by old Congressional District

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

Prop 50 by County Supervisor District I wonder if the Republicans on the BOS who drew this map realize they created a dummymander politicaldictionary.com/words/dummym...

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 02/12/2025

Prop 50 results by State Senate District Steven Choi is really lucky.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

This is probably good news for @chriswarcraft.bsky.social AD 72 is clearly a swing district, and Gracy Van Der Mark is exactly the kind of candidate that turns off higher income voters along the coast.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 28/11/2025

Prop 50 results by Orange County Assembly District All results are from Orange County only (I'm sure AD 74 as a whole is actually quite a bit closer due to the San Diego portion not being represented here)

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Los Angeles: content.lavote.gov/docs/rrcc/sv... San Bernardino doesn't have results by district available yet.

content.lavote.gov

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

I made this map using data from the Orange County Registrar of Voters. What county is that city in? Their ROV might have results by district listed somewhere.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Prop 50 results by city in Orange County

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Fashion Island, Newport Beach Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 256 (34.0%) No: 498 (66.0%) US President (2024) Harris: 380 (35.3%) Trump: 677 (63.0%) Despite a modest shift away from Trump in 2024, Fashion Island/Newport Center moved back towards the president only one year in.

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Ryan Dack @ryandack.bsky.social · 13/11/2025

Balboa Island, Newport Beach Prop 50 (2025) Yes: 404 (31.9%) No: 861 (68.1%) US President (2024) Harris: 585 (34.7%) Trump: 1,077 (63.8%) Median home price: $4.4 million Extremely wealthy communities continue to move towards Trump, in contrast to every other demographic group.

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