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RoguePollster

@roguepollster.bsky.social
141 followers 127 following 33 posts

aka Dina Smeltz. International polling expert, senior fellow of public opinion and foreign policy at The Chicago Council, film fanatic, chihuahua whisperer, explorer

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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
And majorities of Europeans lack confidence that the IS would come to their defense according to @ecfr.eu polling
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
We @global-affairs.bsky.social find similar results, but a plurality of half are hopeful US relations will improve with a new US administration
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
Americans prefer to maintain or increase the number of existing US troops in Germany (60%, up from 48 percent in 2019) & Poland (63%, up from 49 percent in 2019) globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Strong Bipartisan Support for NATO Ahead of 2026 Summit
A new Chicago Council survey finds bipartisan majorities support the NATO alliance, including US troop deployments in Germany and Poland.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
House passes Ukraine security aid bill over objections of GOP leaders
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Henry Farrell @himself.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
What some might call "sociological gobbledygook" goodauthority.org/news/justice...
goodauthority.org
Justice Roberts said political science is 'sociological gobbledygook.' Here's why he said it, and why he's mistaken.
On Tuesday, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Gill v. Whitford, a blockbuster case about partisan gerrymandering in Wisconsin. […]
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Anton Gerashchenko @antongerashchenko.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
A record number of Russians now believe that Russia is on the "wrong track", according to polls. The share of citizens who believe the country is moving in the "wrong direction" has reached its highest level since February 2022, according to a survey by the Levada Center:
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 17/03/2026
Trump has lost working-class whites open.substack.com/pub/gelliott...
open.substack.com
Trump has lost working-class whites
New race-by-income data shows Trump's approval has cratered among the working-class voters he gained in 2024. The war in Iran underscores his challenges
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 21/01/2026
Actually, @global-affairs.bsky.social polling shows that 62 percent of Americans are at least somewhat confident that if the United States is attacked, European allies would come to America’s defense. @kairyssdal.bsky.social @davidgura.bsky.social bit.ly/4pLkZFB
bit.ly
US Public Support for Alliances at All-Time High
Solid majorities of Democrats and Independents think the United States should consult with allies before making major foreign policy decisions, but only four in 10 Republicans agree.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
@washingtonpost.com reporter @sammywestfall.bsky.social covered our recent survey on US views toward Israel-Gaza war. Republicans far apart from other Americans in attitudes.
washingtonpost.com
Growing number of Americans say U.S. supports Israel too much in Gaza war, poll shows
Republicans stand apart in backing U.S. support for Israel during the war in Gaza.
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Paul Poast @profpaulpoast.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
On Monday, I'm moderating this @global-affairs.bsky.social panel on the Future of the United Nations and Multilaterialism. It's going to be a great discussion. For those interested and in the Chicago area, hope you can make it! globalaffairs.org/events/futur...
globalaffairs.org
The Future of Multilateralism: UN80 and Beyond
Cécile Shea, Juliet Sorensen, Ian Hurd, and Paul Poast discuss the evolution and future of multilateralism through the lens of the United Nations' 80th anniversary.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
"[Israel's] policy toward the Palestinians, especially in the ongoing military action in Gaza, seems to have squandered a great deal of American support—especially among younger generations and nonwhite Americans," the Council's @roguepollster.bsky.social told @newsweek.com. brnw.ch/21wTmqa
brnw.ch
American sympathy for Israel reaches "all-time low" in new poll
The survey also comes as tensions heat up between Israel and Iran and concerns Israel could launch a strike on Tehran's nuclear plants.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 28/08/2025
"Putin may not be the only leader interested in returning to a spheres-of-influence order. Trump’s early rhetoric in his second term, suggesting that both Canada and Greenland should become US territories, could also be interpreted in this same vein," @roguepollster.bsky.social writes.
brnw.ch
Americans Reject Idea of a Russian Sphere of Influence in Europe
Most Americans believe the United States has too many interests in Europe to let any one country dominate the region.
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Craig Kafura @ckafura.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Exciting night as we welcome @roguepollster.bsky.social, Yawei Liu, Paul Heer, and @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social to discuss the joint @global-affairs.bsky.social - @cartercenter.bsky.social survey of Chinese public opinion: youtube.com/live/CX_Jebq...
youtube.com
China and the World: How Citizens View Their Country's Global Future
YouTube video by Chicago Council on Global Affairs
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 05/09/2025
"We do see a high degree of confidence in China, in the Chinese public, in their country, and the direction that the government is taking their country," Vice President @roguepollster.bsky.social tells @npr.org of new polling from the Chicago Council and @cartercenter.bsky.social. More coverage ⬇️
npr.org
Chinese public is divided over whether to seek global dominance or share leadership
A new poll shows a majority of Chinese people see competition with the U.S. as a threat, but there is a split on what role Beijing should take on in the world stage.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 12/09/2025
Russian drones crossed into Polish airspace this week, escalating tensions between Moscow and NATO. @roguepollster.bsky.social unpacks new Council survey results on how Americans think the United States should respond to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe ⤵️ brnw.ch/21wVIBR
a bar chart showing US public opinion on use of US troops
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 15/08/2025
In advance of today's meeting in Alaska, new data from @global-affairs.bsky.social showing a notable increase in everyday Republican and Independent views on US support for Ukraine, especially on sending additional arms.
globalaffairs.org
Dramatic Rise in Republican Support for Ukraine
In a 21-point shift, 51 percent of Republicans now favor providing US military aid to Kyiv.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 23/07/2025
The Trump plan announced today aims to spur AI innovation by removing “onerous Federal regulations" hindering AI development. A plurality of Americans think there is not enough(44%) rather than too much (7%) government regulation on new tech. globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Americans Favor Greater AI and Quantum Regulation
While still forming their views on these technologies, more say they are concerned about the potential risks than excited about the opportunities.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 24/06/2025
While all eyes are on Iran, there's a NATO summit also happening. Don't forget about Ukraine's struggle, too. globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Americans Endorse US Commitment to NATO, Though GOP Support Has Dipped
As NATO leaders meet in The Hauge this week, the gap between Democrats and Republicans on America's NATO commitment has reached an all-time high in Council polling dating back to 1974.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
As NATO leaders meet in The Hauge this week, the gap between Democrats and Republicans on America's NATO commitment has reached an all-time high in Council polling dating back to 1974. More Council-@ipsosus.bsky.social survey results 📊⤵️ brnw.ch/21wTCHn
brnw.ch
Americans Endorse US Commitment to NATO, Though GOP Support Has Dipped
As NATO leaders meet in The Hauge this week, the gap between Democrats and Republicans on America's NATO commitment has reached an all-time high in Council polling dating back to 1974.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
As a part-time resident of DC, I'm one of them prri.org/spotlight/mi...
prri.org
New PRRI Poll: Three-Quarters of Americans Oppose Trump’s Military Parade
As the 250th anniversary of the United States Army approaches, which also coincides with President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday, Washington is preparing to mark the occasion with a large-scale…
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
As Iran and US officials prepare for the next round of meetings, a majority of Americans support a nuclear agreement globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Six in 10 Americans Support US Participation in a Nuclear Agreement with Iran
Majorities of Democrats and Independents support a potential deal similar to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, but only a minority of Republicans agree.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
"A majority still want to support Ukraine, but it has slipped. And the reason it's slipped is because the Republicans have tanked," the Council's @roguepollster.bsky.social tells @npr.org of shifting public attitudes toward the war. brnw.ch/21wRT6s
npr.org
As Trump tries for Ukraine-Russia deal, public opinion on conflict shifts
As Trump tries -- with difficulty -- to get a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, public opinion about the conflict has been shifting.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 07/04/2025
We’re pleased to announce the appointment of @leslievinjamuri.bsky.social as our next president and chief executive officer. Leslie joins us from @chathamhouse.org and brings 20+ years of experience in global affairs. Please join us in welcoming her to Chicago! More info here: brnw.ch/21wRPYT
globalaffairs.org
Leslie Vinjamuri Named President and CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs
Vinjamuri joins the Council from the Royal Institute of International Affairs, known as Chatham House, in London.
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Philip Bump @pbump.com · 07/04/2025
Here's a look (inspired by @jeffasher.bsky.social) at how Trump's damage to the economy isn't limited to stock prices. s2.washingtonpost.com/camp-rw/?tra...
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
goodauthority.org/news/us-demo...
goodauthority.org
U.S. democracy is under attack. Here are some lessons for democracy’s defenders.
A global study of democratic backsliding and resilience offers ways to resist authoritarian attacks.
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 01/04/2025
INBOX: “.. The leaders agreed that ministers and senior officials will continue to work together to advance shared priorities. “Prime Minister Carney and President Sheinbaum agreed to remain in close contact.” www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/read...
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
According to a February 20–26, 2025, Chicago Council on Global Affairs-Levada Center survey, everyday Russians perceive mixed impacts of the Kremlin’s foreign policy. globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Russians Feel Mixed Impacts from Kremlin's Foreign Policy Moves
While the public thinks Putin’s foreign policies have improved Moscow’s international influence and the state of the Russian military, fewer now say they have boosted their country’s image abroad.
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
Six in 10 Americans (58%) believe the United States and European countries are equally responsible for helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia, a new Chicago Council- @ipsosus.bsky.social survey finds. However, this share has declined since 2023. More analysis 👇
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Kori Schake 🎃 @kschake.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Smart, sober response from Canada’s Prime Minister to the destruction my government is wreaking. The US won the geo-political lottery having Canada and Mexico as neighbors, and the Trump Administration is destroying our advantages.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
American views on efforts to end war between Russia and Ukraine globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Americans Divided on Future US Role in Post-War Ukraine
While most support providing medevac services to injured peacekeepers, the public is divided over backing a peacekeeping force militarily.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 20/03/2025
New poll data in! globalaffairs.org/research/pub...
globalaffairs.org
Slim Majorities of Americans Still Support Aiding Ukraine
While down slightly from last year, more than half support continuing military and economic assistance to Kyiv. But the results are highly partisan.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
The @global-affairs.bsky.social just got new data back on this as well. Stay tuned for additional insights!
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 17/03/2025
According to a new @yougov.co.uk, Europeans are souring again on the United States. Pluralities of half or more in Denmark (74%), Sweden (63%), Germany (56%), Britain (53%), Spain (49%) and France (49%) express a negative view. Italians are evenly divided. yougov.co.uk/internationa...
More than half of people in Britain (53%), Germany (56%), Sweden (63%) and Denmark (74%) now have an unfavourable opinion of the USA.
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Matthew Champion @matthewchampion.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
when Elon Musk started recruiting for DOGE last November, he said the work would be “tedious” and “compensation is zero" now it turns out some DOGE operatives are earning six-figure salaries, one as high as $195,200, as much as a civil servant can legally make www.wired.com/story/doge-g...
wired.com
Some DOGE Staffers Are Drawing Six-Figure Government Salaries
Engineers and executives at the so-called Department of Government Efficiency are drawing healthy taxpayer-funded salaries—sometimes from the very agencies they are cutting.
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Opinion Today @opiniontoday.bsky.social · 23/01/2025
Reuters/@ipsosus.bsky.social: Strong majorities of Americans do not support using military force to obtain new territory, do not support Canada becoming the 51st state and do not want the US to pressure Denmark into handing over Greenland. Via Opinion Today: opiniontoday.substack.com/p/250123-top...
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Shibley Telhami @stelhami.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
Reuters/Ipsos Poll: Only 7% of American adults, including 11% of Republicans, agree with Trump that Ukraine is more to blame for starting the war:
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John Cassidy @johncassidysays.bsky.social · 05/03/2025
We interrupt his program to bring you a newsbreak from that lefty rag The Wall Street Journal.
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 04/03/2025
Trudeau: "I want to speak first directly to the American people. We don't want this. We want to work with you as a friend and ally. We don't want to see you hurt either. But your government has chosen to do this to you. As of this morning, markets are down and inflation is set to rise dramatically."
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
protest in Chicago about White House treatment of Zelenskyy i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c6...
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
theguardian.com
Tracking Trump – updates on the presidency’s first 100 days
Follow major developments of the second Trump administration’s first 100 days, brought up to date weekly
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...
theatlantic.com
At Least Now We Know the Truth
It’s ugly, but necessary to face.
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Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
Trump and Vance are part of the tiny percentage of Americans who sympathize more with Russia (4%) than Ukraine (62%) and who view Putin more favorably (75% unfavorable) than Zelensky (28% unfavorable) today.yougov.com/politics/art...
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 28/02/2025
EU foreign policy chief: “.. Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader.” @kajakallas.bsky.social
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Chicago Council on Global Affairs @global-affairs.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
What could dismantling USAID mean locally and nationally? Distinguished Fellow Catherine Bertini weighs in on @wttw.bsky.social's Chicago Tonight ⤵️
news.wttw.com
Unspent Aid Worth Billions Lacks Oversight as Trump Dismantles USAID, Watchdog Warns
The U.S. Agency for International Development has lost almost all ability to track $8.2 billion in unspent humanitarian aid following the Trump administration’s foreign funding freeze and idling of st...
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unraveled @unraveledpress.com · 18/02/2025
Happening now: it's 1°F outside in Chicago—a literal frozen hellscape. Furious EPA workers with AFGE Local 704 are rallying against the Trump/Musk evisceration of the federal workforce targeting new hires. Recently fired employees include those responsible for monitoring air & water quality.
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Naazneen Barma @naazneenbarma.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
📣 For faculty and post-docs in international affairs who are interested in learning how to engage more with policymakers and the public sphere — please share widely
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
Mass deportations, tariffs & pardons for J6 rioters appeal to GOP base, but majorities of Dems and Independents are opposed to these policies. See @npr.org @pbs.org @maristpoll.bsky.social survey from January 7-9. The public"mandate" for those items is limited. www.npr.org/2025/01/15/n...
npr.org
Trump will begin his presidency in delicate position, poll finds
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows that Americans' support for President-elect Donald Trump's top priorities is split, despite his claims of a mandate for his agenda.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
While mass deportations, imposing tariffs & pardoning J6 rioters is popular among Republicans, majorities of Democrats and Independents are opposed to these policies. See @npr.org @pbs.org @maristpoll.bsky.social from January 7-9.
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RoguePollster @roguepollster.bsky.social · 21/01/2025
The US elections are over, but some of the trends that shaped global voting will still affect the public mood in 2025 a piece I wrote with @ckafura.bsky.social globalaffairs.org/commentary-a...
globalaffairs.org
US Elections Part of Global Trend Away from Incumbents
Public opinion polling offers insights into what cost incumbent leaders and parties at the polls.
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