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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 14h

The recent pick-up in attacks on oil tankers is the death rattle of Iran's regime. Just look at China's exports to countries in the Persian Gulf. China's exports are back to normal for everyone except Iran. Iran's economy is literally grinding to a halt... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 18h

The global bond market sell-off has calmed today. Yields are coming down everywhere with the exception of France. The Euro zone is in danger of things spiraling into a self-fulfilling prophecy where investor sentiment turns permanently more negative... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 18h

Oil volumes out of the Persian Gulf are around 13 mb/d compared to a high of 16.5 mb/d a few weeks ago. This is still way better than the height of the war in March and April, but oil prices are back to their highs. Way too much risk premium is priced... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/denouement...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 18h

The recent rise in the Dollar is entirely due to rate differentials, i.e. markets think the US is best positioned to weather high oil prices. So they price a more hawkish Fed and better growth trajectory. That all changes when war ends and oil prices fall... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-the...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 19h

The Dollar has risen massively since August. In fact, against the G10 (blue) it's now the strongest since "Liberation Day" in 2025. There's 3 drivers of this, all of which are temporary and will fade as soon as war with Iran ends and oil prices tumble... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-the...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 19h

You got the right one, thanks for flagging!

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The catalyst for last year's massive rally in gold was Jay Powell's dovish keynote at Jackson Hole on Aug. 22. The rate cuts that followed looked like the Fed was giving in to Trump, since inflation was still far above target. Today's live stream on gold: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/will-gold-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The peak of the Euro zone debt crisis in 2011/12 saw massive deposit flight from high-debt countries like Greece. All this stuff - the doom loop - got papered over by Draghi's "whatever it takes," but it never went away. We could be back to this quickly... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bank-depos...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Iran is in a desperate struggle to reassert some control over the Strait of Hormuz. That's what recent attacks on tankers are about. This is a sign of weakness. The regime has its back against the wall. Iran's economy is falling apart. This is the end game. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-end-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The Brazilian Real is currently much stronger than it appears at first glance. That's because the Dollar is massively bid at the moment, so the fact that the Real has managed to strengthen - even as the rest of EM is tumbling - is a sign of real strength... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-the-br...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I did yesterday's live stream on bond market flows, i.e. who's buying and selling. There's been a lot of chatter that Japanese investors have been dumping French debt, but there's no sign of that in data through August when the spike in yields got started... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-japane...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The Dollar versus the G10 (blue) is at its strongest level since "Liberation Day" in April 2025. That's mostly about the US being the cleanest shirt in the closet when it comes to fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is bad everywhere, but it's worst in Europe... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-us...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream today at 9:30 am (ET). I'll do a full markets round-up and will touch on everything from Fed hikes that are now priced to the yield curve, the strong Dollar and what all this boils down to for gold. Join on link below: open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Gold is flat this year after last year's 65% rise. The catalyst for last year's rise was Fed cuts even as inflation was significantly above target. There's no way the Fed hikes as much as is priced, but we're a ways from cuts. Those will come in 2027... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/will-gold-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I'm doing my usual Sunday morning live stream at 9:30 am (ET) tomorrow. I'll talk about what drove the massive run-up in gold in 2025 and what it'll take for gold to boom like that again. The reasons for gold to stage another rally are building... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

On this morning's live stream, I talked about bond market flows and whether it's a hedge fund blow-up or Japanese investors pulling back that are driving the rise in French yields. It's neither. Instead, it's France's totally unsustainable fiscal policy... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/are-japane...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

The Brazilian Real has settled below $/BRL 5.00. My expectation is for it to go to 4.80 if Bolsonaro wins the second round vote on October 25. There's still lots of wood to chop in terms of the undervaluation of the Real. We'll end up going below 4.50... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-much-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Turkey gets 7 million Russian visitors per year. We don't know what's going on in Russia, but if the plague is serious and gets out, Turkey is at risk of being a primary node for global transmission. Thailand is another place with tons of Russian tourism... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-ru...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

You'll have to explain that to Germans who remember the Deutsche Mark when German exports were doing just fine. And then of course there's the example of Switzerland, which is doing just fine with its own very strong currency. This kind of argument is running out of steam...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

There's a guessing game right now how the ECB can possibly intervene to cap yields with spreads that are still tight. That misses the forest for the trees. In 2022, the ECB just introduced a new tool to intervene. The only rule is that there are no rules... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

If the ECB ends up intervening to cap yields - which of course it will - it has to explain what exactly the market dysfunction is that it's fixing. So far, high-debt countries have been hit hardest. That's not market dysfunction. That's totally rational... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/roadmap-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Japan has great data on what its investors are doing overseas. They haven't been selling France in data through August, which is when that bond sell-off began. There may be individual asset managers scaling back, but in aggregate this rounds down to zero... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/whos-selli...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

I'm doing my usual Saturday morning live stream today at 9:30 am (ET). When bond markets blow up, there's always finger-pointing at individual investors. The truth is that responsibility lies with the countries getting hit. Quit whining and get your house in order. open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

French bond yields have been going vertical since early August. In August, the excuse was thin liquidity. Then it was stories about individual hedge funds blowing up and Japanese asset managers selling. These are just excuses. France has itself to blame... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/whos-selli...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I'm doing my usual Saturday morning live stream at 9:30 am (ET) tomorrow. I'll talk about whether the sell-off in French government bonds is linked to Japanese investors pulling back and the unwind of the Yen carry trade. Flows data do NOT show this... open.substack.com/live-stream/...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

There's lots of talk Japanese investors have been selling French debt and are behind the rise in French yields. There's no evidence of that. Japan did sell French debt, but that was in 2024. There's no big selling that's been happening recently... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/is-the-yen...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

ECB President Lagarde yesterday did the first verbal intervention to cap French yields. The situation is serious. The doom loop - the link between banks and sovereigns - is as bad as it was in 2011/12. If yields keep rising, we're back to deposit flight... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bank-depos...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

After Russia invaded Ukraine, Western countries clamped down on Russian visitors. So now they go to Turkey and Thailand. Those are the places the plague could spread if it gets out of Russia. That would be similar to COVID. Thailand was an early hotspot... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-ru...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

We don't know what's going on with the plague in Russia. But after COVID in Wuhan, we know not to trust dictatorships that tell us everything's ok. Turkey gets 7 million Russian visitors per year. Thailand gets 2 million. That's how this thing could spread. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-ru...

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Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Great thread on Berlin housing. I would add that The Left was in government before and had the chance to build more. It didn't, because it is almost exclusively focused on those insiders.

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

At the height of the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro zone, there was massive deposit flight from Greece, Italy and Spain to Germany. Underlying driver of that was the doom loop and underlying driver of that was too much debt. All of this is the same now... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bank-depos...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

10-year vs 10y10y forward yields in the G10: 1. US: 4.81% vs 5.33% 2. DE: 3.51% vs 4.25% 3. JP: 3.09% vs 4.85% 4. GB: 5.49% vs 6.44% 5. IT: 4.64% vs 5.51% 6. FR: 4.91% vs 5.72% 7. CH: 0.54% vs 0.78% 8. CA: 3.99% vs 4.49% 9. AU: 5.39% vs 6.17% robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/global-bon...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The ECB built a whole infrastructure around targeting and capping spreads. Those spreads are now well behaved, even as yields for high-debt countries rise rapidly. In my mind, this is a version of Goodhart's law. What you target ends up breaking down... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/trouble-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

France's real 10-year yield (purple) has pulled even with the US (pink). The US has a growth story that justifies some of the rise in real yields. France doesn't have any of that. The root of the disease is the ECB, which disincentivizes debt reduction... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Another brutal day in global gov't bond markets, with France surpassing its previous high on its 10-year yield from a week ago. The rest of high-debt Europe is getting dragged up with France. The check for 15 years of endless kicking-the-can is coming due... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/roadmap-fo...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

At the height of the Euro zone debt crisis, the doom loop - the fact that banks hold so much government debt - meant there was deposit flight from Greece, Spain and Italy to Germany. If the widening in spreads continues, we're going right back to that... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/bank-depos...

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Yuriy Gorodnichenko @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Today, a Russian strike on Pryluky 🇺🇦 killed at least 19 people, incl. 5 children. Same day, in Moscow, ex-🇩🇪 Chancellor Gerhard Schröder told staff of the Russian hypermarket chain whose board he just joined: "I'm very happy to be here... and to meet you, my wonderful colleagues." Moral bankruptcy

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

If the German government allows Unicredit to take over Commerzbank, it'll be an egregious act of negligence. Rising Italian yields in 2011 dragged Unicredit down. That only stopped because of "whatever it takes" and ECB yield caps. The doom loop lives... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-unicre...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Brazil on Monday - the day after Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected showing in the first round vote - got $2 bn in foreign inflows into its stock market. That's a 10 standard deviation inflow compared to history. HUGE. Brazil is coming in from the cold... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-the-br...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Long-term yields are gapping higher today for France, Italy and the UK. Things like 10y10y and 10y20y forward are up over 10 bps in these places. This sell-off has been building for many years going back to COVID and the huge fiscal expansion at the time... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/anatomy-of...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

What are safe havens where you can hide from the global bond market sell-off? The top safe havens are Switzerland (CH), Sweden (SE) and Norway (NO). Germany (DE) lost its safe haven aura. Markets know it has to pay for the rest of the high-debt Euro zone... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-never-...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

The Euro is falling because markets think the ECB will shift dovish due to what's going on in bond markets. That's why the 2y2y forward rate differential (black) is tumbling, which is what's pulling down the Euro (blue). Markets price fiscal dominance... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/will-conve...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Global bond markets are on fire again today. The shock is radiating out from Europe to everyone globally. The epicenter of what's happening is France, but Italy, the UK and Spain are also under pressure. Safe havens like Switzerland are getting bought... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-debt-c...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Gold has been flatlining even though market pricing for an October hike is back down from 70% to 20% now. I think the most obvious reason is that lots of hikes are still priced further out. The market isn't letting go of its hawkish narrative for the Fed... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-is-gol...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

No, I don't think like that at all. I'm afraid you don't understand me at all. I'm interested in anything that is sustainable. If Italian banks are unfairly subsidized by an ECB that artificially caps Italy's sovereign yields, that's obviously not sustainable. That's where I'm coming from...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The Brazilian Real is continuing its march towards my fair value of $/BRL 4.50. My fair value spent a lot of time in the wilderness, but the price action that's happening now is a sign how undervalued the Real has been. It's all been a Lula risk premium... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-the-br...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Every day that Germany stays in the Euro, it writes a blank cheque to the high-debt South. The high-debt South - no surprise - cashes that cheque with great enthusiasm. Germany's political center is too "posh" to acknowledge this. But the AfD isn't... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-german...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

If the Euro ends tomorrow, there'll be debt write-downs and banks like Unicredit will shrink to a fraction of their current size. That's why its takeover of Commerzbank is so bonkers. It's a symptom of how the ECB distorts capital markets. Nothing more... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/what-the-e...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The rise in US yields is one of those Occam's razor things. Of course it's true that growth is much stronger than many thought it would be and the AI thing is real. But the elephant in the room is the 7.5% of GDP deficit. My live stream on this from Sunday: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-us...

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Robin Brooks @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

There's lots of fearmongering on lack of foreign demand for US Treasuries, especially that this could be a sign China and Japan are ditching their holdings. That's nonsense. Foreign flows are weak right now because the Dollar is so strong. End of story... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/how-the-us...

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