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Paul Graf

@paulginva.bsky.social
4.9K followers 1.8K following 21K posts

Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.

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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 8h
I think this elephant baby must be part cat, the way it's climbing into the eay top small tub.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 9h
Poor Riley Gaines. She's like a moth caught in amber — forever locked in the moment she placed 6th in a swim meet behind trans athlete Lea Thomas. She can never break free. This claim got tossed because the NCAA is a private entity & never received money from the feds. Her claims against
politico.com
Judge tosses lawsuit against NCAA over transgender athlete policy
The sports governing body rescinded its policy allowing transgender athletes to compete in women’s sports amid pressure from the Trump administration.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 9h
"A Ukrainian FlyDubai pilot stabbed a Russian commander and attempted to crash the plane." Russian propaganda never fails. 🤣
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 10h
Apparently being Israeli while protesting against Israel's actions is now a deportable condition in The Land of the Free™.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 10h
Tom is an East Asia specialist who has lived in Tokyo for over 20 years. I concur with every word he says here. Trump's "friendship" with Kim Jong Un is disgraceful in itself, but it is also a significant national security threat.
Thomas P (TOM) Logan @TokyoTom2020-12h

This is hands down one of the most disgraceful things I have seen out of this White House in either Trump administration, and it needs to be shut down immediately!

Throughout eight years of his cozy #Trump-#NorthKorean "friendship," #KimJongUn has bought time and alarmingly built up his #nuclear warhead arsenal right under Trump's nose, developed variable-trajectory missiles to strike the US and our allies more easily, and deployed Asian ground troops to Europe for the first time in centuries. This is complete delusion. He is operating in a self-contained fantasy world that is dragging the United States and our Asian allies into extreme disaster. What on earth is wrong with this man, and what is wrong with Congress? He must be stopped before further damage is done.

CBS News @CBSNews 18h

"He happens to be a friend of mine," President Trump said about North Korean leader Kim Jong Un when asked Tuesday why North Korea can have nuclear weapons but not Iran. "I'm about the only person in the entire world that he likes, and I like him."
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 13h
This is a complaint filed with the 8th Circuit against all Minnesota federal district court judges except one. I don't think an action like this has any precedent in our judicial history and, based on what the article says, it appears to me meritless. The 8th Circuit is tied with the 5th for being
cbsnews.com
Justice Department files judicial misconduct complaint against federal judges in Minnesota
Attorney General Todd Blanche announced the Justice Department had filed a judicial misconduct complaint against federal judges in Minnesota after they spoke with the New York Times.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h
Maybe he should have asked a few questions to his investigators. 😂
thehill.com
Schmitt on mix-up at Jack Smith hearing: ‘My job is to ask questions’
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) on Tuesday reflected on his mix-up during former special counsel Jack Smith’s hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee, saying his job “is to ask question…
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 16h
This is unconscionable. It's also unnecessary. There are differences of opinion on the death penalty, but I'm not speaking to them here. I'm simply saying that if we're going to have and use the death penalty, we should strive to make it as cheap, painless, and efficient as possible.
npr.org
After failed execution, health workers say Tennessee's method flouts medical ethics
After a botched lethal injection in May, dozens of Tennessee medical professionals told the governor that healthcare professionals shouldn't help with executions, no matter the method.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 17h
Finally! This is the second end of our military’s mission in Iraq. Let's hope there's never a third.
thehill.com
US ends military mission in Iraq
U.S. Central Command (Centcom) on Wednesday announced the departure of U.S. forces from Iraq, ending its 12-year military mission. Centcom stated that all U.S. forces and equipment departed Erbil A…
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 17h
This is a a rookie mistake, but Troy Jackson is not a rookie politician, he's the former president of the Maine state senate. A candidate should never put themselves in a position of having to say "what I meant was". It's political malpractice.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 17h
Good. I hope Trump goes back to campaign in Texas at least 10 more times in the next month.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 17h
The yields on the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds continue to rise and large investors now expect the yield on the 30-year to exceed 6% by year end. This guarantees that mortgage rates will continue to rise. The last time we saw that yield level was in 2000, just before the dot-com crash.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 18h
I sense a court order incoming.
usatoday.com
Trump to begin sending $500 ACA refund checks to 1 million Americans
Nearly 1 million Americans will begin receiving $500 Obamacare refund checks on Sept. 30, along with letters signed by President Donald Trump.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I can think of a couple more that could be added.
Adam Singer

@AdamSinger

8h

People who don't listen to music: "Al is going to replace all music"

People who don't read: "Al is going to replace literature"

People with no friends: "Al will replace all relationships"

People who don't practice law: "Al will replace all lawyers"

Do any of you do anything
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
We-re screwed.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We definitely weren’t designed to cope with all this—our bodies, our nervous systems, our brains. Among all the other dangers these developments represent, they’re simply wearing us out.A lot of us would like politicians to offer, alongside their promises of affordability, even a glimpse of serenity
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Reposted by Paul Graf
Cristian Farias @cristianfarias.com · 29/09/2026
This is an astonishing self-own by the Internal Revenue Service that will keep scores of hardworking, tax-paying, non-refund-seeking immigrants from paying billions in federal taxes. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/b...
nytimes.com
Trump Administration Prepares to Ask Tax Filers if They Are U.S. Citizens (Gift Article)
The new question, included on a draft version of the primary tax form, comes as part of an anti-immigrant turn at an agency that long prioritized tax administration.
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Reposted by Paul Graf
S @vidiot.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
when ya gotta go.. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/28/u...
nytimes.com
A Driver Desperate to Use the Bathroom Plows Into a Kroger in Texas, the Police Say (Gift Article)
The driver, James Mansell Lancaster Jr., was upset to find the supermarket in Rosenberg, Texas, closed early Sunday morning, the police said.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
I honestly don't understand how chuckleheads like Comer, Jordan, Schmidt and all the rest fail to consider the downside of holding hearings like this. Why wouldn't they look at the track record over the past two years and ask themselves "Why will this time be different?"
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This doesn't surprise me. The lawsuit doesn't challenge the legality of the tax, just the clumsy, haphazard way it has been rolled out. There are several other lawsuits that do challenge the taxes legality. The city filed an appeal in this case almost immediately.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Mister Trump, I served with Jeffrey Dahmer. I knew Jeffrey Dahmer. Jeffrey Dahmer was a friend of mine. Mister Trump, you're no Jeffrey Dahmer. (With apologies to the late Senator Lloyd Bentsen,)
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We’re about three years from someone introducing a bill to make gamers a protected class under the Civil Rights Act
Sarah Huckabee S... @SarahHuc... Sep 28

You pay taxes to cover welfare for people who just choose not to work. That's why I launched a welfare-to-work requirement.

If you're young, healthy, and get government assistance, you should work, go to school, or volunteer.

Kangmin Lee | 이강민 @kangminlee 21h

...

Young right-wing Christian American gamers are some of the most patriotic people in society.

This is tonedeaf and the only reason you did this was because they're the easiest demographic to put down.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
The rial has collapsed by around 68% since the resumption of the Hormuz blockade on July 14, to now about 2.5 million rials per US dollar. Iran's oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz have also collapsed. The question to my mind is how much pain is the govern⁴ment willing to inflict on its people,
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
When you did an all-nighter making posters for your big finals week group project presentation and you got an F.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"My father would womanize, he would drink. He would make outrageous claims, like he 'invented' the question mark. Sometimes, he would accuse chestnuts of being lazy..."
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"On Sunday, Israeli-born federal prosecutor Sigal Chattah shared a photo from the festivities, featuring herself, Habba, her new billionaire husband Turhan Mildon, and Ali Abdelaziz, a former UFC manager and NYPD and FBI informant suspected of being a double agent."
newrepublic.com
Kash Patel Caught With Suspected Double Agent at Alina Habba’s Wedding
The FBI director was spotted in a photo with an FBI informant suspected of being a double agent.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"As GOP alarm about the midterms worsens, a progressive data researcher explains the deeper reasons voters are so angry and dissatisfied right now—especially in red states with big Senate races." The man is spiraling down again.
newrepublic.com
Trump Erupts in Wild Panic as GOP Midterm Leaks Grow Urgent: “Wipeout”
As GOP alarm about the midterms worsens, a progressive data researcher explains the deeper reasons voters are so angry and dissatisfied right now—especially in red states with big Senate races.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Lawmakers are turning directly to Oracle for answers about why the Department of Veterans Affairs increased the ceiling on its electronic health record modernization contract by roughly $17 billion after VA officials could not offer reasoning at a congressional hearing in September." 🍿🍿🍿
militarytimes.com
Congress presses Oracle for answers on VA’s $17 billion EHR increase
Lawmakers are turning directly to Oracle for answers about why the VA increased the ceiling on its electronic health record contract by $17 billion.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
WOW!!!! I've never seen a company with revenue in the billions with an 1100% increase in revenue year over year.
Here is the headline: the S-1 shows a business investing for growth, with the first signs of green shoots. Beyond the astonishing headline numbers- an $8bn operating loss for 2025 and a net loss of $42bn (bumped up by an accounting charge)- what do we see?

It is a business whose revenues are growing far faster than its costs. This trend will continue into 2026, when the company will likely turn a profit. We dig into this more here.

Anthropic revenue grew 1,089% as costs rose 276%

INVESTMENTBRIEF.AI

The company is nothing if not ambitious. It has $518bn in compute commitments over 7-10 years. About 80% of these, c $410bn, cannot be cancelled. Assuming Anthropic wants a decent margin, that means a trillion bucks give or take in sales over that period. Big numbers, but Anthropic's annualised revenues will exceed $100bn by the end of 2026.

The rumour mill suggests Anthropic will go public in November.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
And yet they're trying to get rid of those international migrants, without whom their counties would dry up and blow away.
According to analysis by The Economist, deaths have begun to outnumber births in reliably Republican U.S. counties for the first time since at least 1982.

Key Findings
• Natural Population Change: Natural change (births minus deaths) in reliably Republican counties has dipped below zero, meaning more people are dying in these areas than are being born.
• Role of Migration: According to The Economist's reporting, overall population growth in these areas is now sustained entirely by domestic and international migration rather than natural increase.
• Broader Trends: The data highlights shifting demographic patterns across politically aligned regions, contrasting with more competitive or Democratic-leaning counties where natural population change has remained positive longer.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is nothing new. Military cybersecurity experts have routinely helped monitor systems and deter potential hackers since election equipment was designated “critical infrastructure” in 2017. Hegseth is just grandstanding.
apnews.com
Hegseth says forces will guard election systems during midterms, news outlets seek to block Trump from enforcing White House ban, OpenAI delays latest model
Enjoying Morning Wire online? Get tomorrow's edition of AP’s free flagship newsletter delivered straight to your inbox before you start the day. Subscribe here.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
What more can he do to torment us?!
brewersassociation.org
Canadian Beer Import Ban Set to Take Effect September 29
Beginning on September 29, the U.S. will prohibit imports of many Canadian alcohol beverages, including packaged beer.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Crypto.com donated $35M to Trump, then Trump intervened in a lawsuit on their behalf. A medical supply company donated $5M, then Trump let Medicare cover their products. A tobacco company donated $5M, then Trump green lit their vapes. And the very long list goes on. These are bribes.
popular.info
How MAGA Inc. raised so much money
Since returning to the White House, President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally prohibited from running for president again, has raised over $400 million through his super PAC, MAGA Inc.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Yet another step in the othering of American citizens.
thehill.com
Education Department formally rescinds Title IX protections for LGBTQ students
The Education Department announced Monday it has formally rescinded the Biden-era Title IX interpretation that gave sex-based discrimination protections to students on the basis of sexual orientati…
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
$500 and a bottle of McCallan 18 if you can be over by noon. 😂
Lance Corporate

@lance_corporate

Follow

...

For $200, I'll come over wearing a tool belt and a branded polo and tell your wife the renovation she wants to do is impossible because that's a load bearing wall

8:01 AM

Sep 28, 2026

1.4M Views
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Didn't expect to see this
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Let's see what happens this time with Donald in charge 🤔
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This seems like a reasonable idea with precedent from Obama’s education department. Every lender everywhere throughout time has considered ability to repay when granting a loan. The government shouldn’t be in the business of encouraging people to take loans they won’t be able to repay.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
A former Utah death row inmate is set to be released on bail tonight after over 40 years behind bars. Douglas Carter was convicted in the 1985 murder of Eva Olesen in Provo. Last week,prosecutors dropped the death penalty against the 71-year-old based on his DNA not matching DNA found at the scene
abc4.com
Judge to issue ruling on former death row inmate Douglas Carter's release ahead of retrial
The man once placed on death row for murdering a Provo woman is appearing in court as a judge decides whether or not he can be released from jail before his retrial, now that the death penalty is o…
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
This is what happens when the DOJ sets off on a quixotic quest to find a conspiracy that doesn't exist but which the top guy desperately needs to keep his boss happy. Lawyers start quitting to protect their licenses to practice. Kurt Olsen was a Trump 45 election denier and yet he too has now quit.
dailymail.com
Trump 'grand conspiracy' case in crisis amid mass exit
Trump loyalist Kurt Olsen has resigned from the 'grand conspiracy' probe in Miami, along with at least six other prosecutors assigned to the investigation.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Here we go.
democracydocket.com
Georgia election board asks for Trump admin to help go after state’s voting machines
“I think this is federal overreach," the board's lone Democrat warned.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I've been involved in a discussion about this over on Twitter. I'll skip all the procedural stuff I pointed out and just put one thought out about this. Over there, just about everyone was baying for blood and vengeance, almost like crowds used to do at public hangings. Funny thing is,
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
JVL went to Springfield, Ohio. Here's part of what he saw.
I was only on the ground for a short period of time and it was obvious that there are plenty of people who are happy to see Haitians being criminalized, arrested, and deported.

I picked this up from conversations with people who were polite about it, and from remarks made by people who were less polite about it, including people who were unhappy with us doing a show to benefit the Haitian community.And in general, the level of support for the Haitian community has been nothing like the mobilization in Minnesota. There are brave and generous volunteers working to help, but they seem to be the minority.

The governor of Ohio has refused to step in-at all-even though his sympathies are obviously with the Haitians. He knows better, but has been cuckolded by his cowardice.

On Saturday, the day after our benefit, Nazis marched through Springfield.

Really. That happened.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Just remember that the Pennsylvania cases are probably seriously underreported. Kids with mild symptoms may not see a doctor but they're still contageous.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I'm currently in Canada. Believe it or not, it's nowhere near one of the worst countries in the world. On the contrary, it's one of the best. I highly recommend it to my countrymen as a vacation destination.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Terrific idea. 🧵⤵️
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Econ 101 in a nutshell.
While pain at the pump does not make for good politics, prices are incredibly important. Prices are the stoplights of the economic roadway. They signal information to consumers and suppliers. No one enjoys the hit to their pocketbooks, but higher prices give firms the incentive to boost production and consumers a reason to make temporary lifestyle changes during a crisis.

When policymakers try to control prices, the result is always negative consequences somewhere else in the economy.

Market forces are the apex predators of bad economic policy. We can run from them, hide from them and pretend they don't exist, but they will always catch up with us in the end. As the Old Testament prophet Hosea wrote, "For they have sown the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind."

We are the product of our choices, and the bill always comes due.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The problem isn’t so much the level of interest rates but the speed with which they are increasing. This is what breaks stuff.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Just a reminder that at its narrowest, the distance from the river to the sea is only eight miles. There are 9 million people living in Israel, 6 million Jews and 2 million Arabs. These people treat this chant like they’re at a basketball game.
Trisha Posner

@trishaposner. 6h

At AOC's standing-room-only "Students vs. Billionaires" rally in Ithaca, attended by more than 2,000 people, the Cornell Young Democratic Socialists who helped welcome her led the crowd in "From the river to the sea" - and "Long live the student intifada."

AOC did not distance herself from those chants. Instead, when she spoke, she defended students' right to protest over "Palestine."

A reminder: the river is the Jordan. The sea is the Mediterranean. Israel is between them.

A Palestine "from the river to the sea" means no Israel.
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Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The erosion of America's fiscal space has been largely bipartisan. Reforms for greater responsibility will have to be bipartisan too.
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