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Rafael Mentges

@rafaelmentges.bsky.social
212 followers 548 following 347 posts

Economist interested in macroeconomics, monetary policy, and Banking. I have a second profile that is more focused on everything around space, so don't get confused ;)

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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
"In a margin of 7-2, the BoJ’s policy board voted for a 0.25 percentage point increase, taking its target rate to around 1.25 per cent." I mean it's not news, but I think it's worth pointing out that 1.25 per cent is the highest rate in 30 years. Inflation has been so low for so long in Japan...
giftarticle.ft.com
Bank of Japan raises rates to highest since 1995
Central bank cites inflation risks as it lifts interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.25%
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Interestingly, Trump is blaming the Fed Board for higher interest rates, especially Jay Powell and Lisa Cook. “I told Kevin, I said, you might as well vote with the board because it’s just not going to matter. The board is very hostile,” Trump told reporters.
giftarticle.ft.com
Donald Trump fails to bend the Federal Reserve to his will
Kevin Warsh leads the US central bank to its first rate rise since 2023 less than four months into the job
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Trump vs. Fed Trump on Sunday reiterated his position that the US should have “the lowest interest rate in the world”. On the other hand: “Everything is pointing in the direction of September as a time to move if Warsh and his colleagues are going to maintain credibility,”
giftarticle.ft.com
Warsh and Trump on collision course as investors expect Fed to raise rates
Central bank chair under pressure to back warnings on inflation with action despite risking president’s ire
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
"The 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5 per cent on Monday for the first time since 2023, as surging oil prices battered government bonds across the globe and pushed the world’s most important financial gauge into fraught territory."
giftarticle.ft.com
Ten-year Treasury yield hits 5% for first time since 2023
World’s most widely watched financial marker moves towards levels not seen in decades as inflation shock from Iran war lingers
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Ich verstehe immer noch nicht, dass die CDU in der größten Krise ihrer Geschichte auf die Idee kommt Jens Spahn zurückzuholen.
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Richard Price 🇨🇦 @voscovery.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Welcome to the party UK, good to have you. I’ll put the tea on and warm up the sticky buns. Buckle up.🇨🇦🇬🇧
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
There is nothing to capitalize on. But it's no surprise that a US conservative doesn't understand that despite being a major reason why there is nothing to capitalize on. The US dictates trade deals with the UK. And on top there is less to gain because the US market is further away than the EU.
giftarticle.ft.com
UK is failing to capitalise on Brexit, says top Trump trade official
Jamieson Greer says Britain’s alignment with EU is a ‘problem’ for a US trade deal
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
"Er hatte in seiner Erniedrigung das Bedürfnis, auf einer, wenn auch nur eingebildeten Höhe zu stehen, von der aus er, von allen verachtet, seinerseits andere verachten konnte." Aus Anna Karenina von Leo Tolstoi
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
“What is unsettling is Warsh’s unwillingness to provide a clear and open assessment of the current situation and the outlook for the US economy,”
giftarticle.ft.com
Kevin Warsh seeks to soothe investors’ nerves as signs of economic strain mount
Economists criticise Fed chair’s communication strategy as policymakers prepare to gather at Jackson Hole symposium
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
If people are posting less, or fewer are posting, try following more people to fill your timeline up. It's highly unlikely that you already followed all the people you will like. Repost more. Recommend people to others more. Also over follow as this helps others find their people.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Einfach unglaublich wie lange sich dieser korrupte Haufen halten kann. Keine Scham, absolut überhaupt kein Sinn dafür was richtig und was falsch ist, kein Verantwortungsbewusstsein. Aber wenn deren Machenschaften keine Konsequenzen haben, ist es wiederum nicht verwunderlich.
spiegel.de
»Gianni Infantino hat heute Nacht hart zurückgeschlagen« – Pressestimmen zum Verbleib an Fifa-Spitze
Die Krisensitzung der Fifa endete mit demonstrativer Geschlossenheit der Führungsriege. Internationale Medien rechnen nicht mit einem zeitnahen Abtritt Gianni Infantinos, fragen aber: »Hat er noch gen...
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
Scott Bessent’s yen intervention signals new era of US ‘currency activism’ - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Scott Bessent’s yen intervention signals new era of US ‘currency activism’
Bid to support Japan’s currency shows US is ready to scupper trades that push against its interests
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
"It is estimated that in Italy alone around 200,000 people live under slave-like conditions" And if they speak up they get burned alive. It is a humanitarian disgrace that such exploitation persists in the middle of Europe.
youtu.be
The story behind the murder of four foreign farm workers in Italy | Focus on Europe
YouTube video by DW News
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
"It is estimated that in Italy alone around 200,000 people live under slave-like conditions" And if they speak up they get burned alive. It is a humanitarian disgrace that such exploitation persists in the middle of Europe.
youtu.be
The story behind the murder of four foreign farm workers in Italy | Focus on Europe
YouTube video by DW News
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
"Tiefer kann die Regierung nicht sinken." Merz: Challenge accepted! www1.wdr.de/reform-attes...
www1.wdr.de
Reformpläne für Krankschreibungen: Attest ab 1. Tag, keine telefonische Krankschreibung mehr
Die schwarz-rote Koalition will die Regeln für Krankschreibungen deutlich verschärfen. Was genau geplant ist und welche Reaktionen es in NRW gibt.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Wie bekomme ich eine Arzttermin innerhalb eines Tages? Oftmals schwierig. Die neue Regelung wird dazu führen, dass es generell schwieriger wird einen Termin zu finden. Wenn ich am ersten Tag eine Krankschreibung brauche, werde ich gleich eine für mehrere Tage bekommen. Falle dann eben länger aus.
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 30/06/2026
Iran rejected French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposal to cooperate on clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz on yesterday evening, warning Paris against intervening in one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.
politico.eu
Iran rejects Macron’s plan to clear Strait of Hormuz
France and the U.K. have been spearheading efforts to put together a maritime mission to secure the key waterway for global oil and gas deliveries.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 29/06/2026
Italia seems to have an unlimited supply of right wing parties youtu.be/NpUJerRkGQ4?...
youtu.be
How a New Far Right Party is Rattling Meloni
YouTube video by TLDR News EU
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Finnish President Alexander Stubb: Brexit is like amputating your leg without medical reason. 🔥🔥🔥 🇪🇺🇪🇺
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Chad P. Bown @chadpbown.com · 22/06/2026
China restricts trading with some US rare earth companies. by Edward White FT: www.ft.com/content/a0f1... Note: Move in response to US designating Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, WuXi, and others as a “Chinese military company” earlier in June Federal Register: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
"Ireland believes it can secure a deal to deepen Europe’s capital markets by the year-end, Taoiseach Micheál Martin has told the FT, overcoming decade-old EU divisions in an attempt to mobilise trillions of euros in savings into productive investments."
giftarticle.ft.com
Ireland says it can secure an EU capital markets deal this year
Taoiseach Micheál Martin tells FT there are ‘ways of landing this’
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 04/06/2026
Wenn das Baerbock passiert wäre... Die Union würde Monate darüber sich das Maul zerreißen www.tagesschau.de/ausland/amer...
tagesschau.de
Deutschland sucht nach den Gründen für Scheitern im UN-Sicherheitsrat
Kein deutscher Sitz im UN-Sicherheitsrat. Das muss die Bundesregierung erstmal verdauen. Während Außenminister Wadephul das Scheitern auf zu spätes Werben zurückführt, sehen Experten noch andere Gründ...
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
"The “crazy world” shaped by US President Donald Trump and China is prompting Norway to reassess its relationship with the EU after two failed attempts to join the bloc." Another case of "if the sea gets rough, you'll want to be on a bigger boat". giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
EU looks more attractive in Donald Trump’s ‘crazy world’, says Norway
Oslo rethinks relationship with bloc after it rejected membership twice
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EUwatch 🇪🇺 @euwatch.live · 01/06/2026
Leveraging the EU Single Market to escape the Trump Trap
socialeurope.eu
Leveraging the EU Single Market to escape the Trump Trap
Leveraging the EU Single Market to escape the Trump Trap…
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Allison Gill @muellershewrote.com · 19/05/2026
NEW: The top lawyer at the Treasury Department just resigned. Even though he clerked for Clarence Thomas, perhaps the $1.7B heist was probably too much. Also note the Times (right) and the WSJ (left) refer to it as a settlement. The judge found IT IS NOT A SETTLEMENT. 1/
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
Mike McCurry, former press secretary to President Clinton, was asked whether the White House knew in advance what Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan would say before Congress. He denied this and added: “Frankly, the White House doesn’t even know what Dr. Greenspan said after he has said it.” Source:
Book cover of "The Greenspan Effect, Words that Move the World's Markets" by David B. Sicilia and Jeffrey L. Cruikshank
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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
”…operations have now resumed at all three ports, with most of the berths back in operation, and average flows are poised to jump in the coming weeks…Shipments in the latest week rose to 3.53 million barrels a day..” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Russia Set to Ramp Up Oil Flows as Impact of Drone Strikes Fades
Moscow has resumed loading operations at key ports, setting the stage for a rebound in exports
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
"Officials such as Fed vice-chair Philip Jefferson note that soaring investment in AI infrastructure, such as data centres, boosts demand immediately — and risks raising prices, while the effects on productivity will take longer to play out."
giftarticle.ft.com
AI boom poised to be ‘massively disinflationary’, Northern Trust says
Head of financial services group’s $1.4tn asset management division expects new tech to unleash huge productivity gains
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Seriously, this is obscene! Fed chair nominee Warsh "received more than $13mn in consulting fees last year, including $10.2mn from billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office, Duquesne." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh reveals assets worth over $100mn
Trump’s pick to succeed Jay Powell reports $10mn in consulting fees from Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
"US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent summoned the leaders of some of the largest US banks earlier this week to discuss the cyber risk posed by the latest AI model from Anthropic, according to people familiar with the matter." Maybe investing in gold isn't such a bad idea 🤔
giftarticle.ft.com
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 08/04/2026
Fox News: "Breaking right now -- Iranian state media says Iran is closing the Strait of Hormuz"
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Interesting piece on gold, Turkish lira stabilization, and foreign exchange markets during the Iran war. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Turkey’s gold sales deepen bullion slump
Central bank arranged $20bn of sales and swaps in March as it battled to support the lira
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 13/03/2026
Why are they still trying so hard to get Trump to like them? It's a pointless endeavor, possibly even harmful.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Probably once again a scheme to enrich MAGA elites at the expense of everyone else. The amount of possibilities when you don't have a working judicial system anymore ... giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
How a US official’s deleted post sent oil markets on a wild ride
Confusion over naval escorts in Strait of Hormuz exposes Trump administration’s lack of clarity over war aims
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
"Meine Damen und Herren, bitte erschrecken sie nicht. Wir erreichen Köln Hbf zwei Minuten früher als geplant." 🥳 Fünf Minuten später steht die Bahn 10 minuten auf der Brücke, wegen eines defekten Signals 🙈
media.tenor.com
a basketball player wearing a lakers jersey with the number 0 on it
ALT: a basketball player wearing a lakers jersey with the number 0 on it
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Interesting piece on interest parity and US government debt: "... at almost all maturities, markets are exacting higher borrowing costs on the US government despite demand for the dollar." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Convenient dollars, inconvenient Treasuries?
Special money
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Karo Otte MdB @karolineotte.de · 10/03/2026
5. Die CDU hat ein Ideologieproblem. Die CDU ist nicht pragmatisch, sondern agiert ideologiegetrieben. Diese Politik der CDU auf Bundesebene ist genau das, was ihr in BaWü geschadet hat, weil es Wechselwähler vertreibt und Lager vereint. #lifestyleteilzeit #teuer-heizen-gesetz #zahnersatz (6/x)
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Iikka Korhonen @iikkakorhonen.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Some Indian refineries are being offered Russian barrels at a premium of between $1 and $5 a barrel to the global benchmark Brent..arrival at Indian ports this month and next…That is in contrast to a discount of more than $10 a barrel below Brent in February. 🇷🇺🇮🇳 www.wsj.com/finance/comm...
wsj.com
The Big Winner From the Persian Gulf Energy Crisis? Russia
The turn of fortunes has given ​Russian President Vladimir Putin renewed swagger when it comes to energy.
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NBER @nber.org · 08/03/2026
Neoclassical economics emphasizes that international trade acts like an improvement in technology that is mutually beneficial. Tariffs are a tax on this trading technology, from Ralph Ossa and @reddingecon.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w34915
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
"If confirmed, a Green win would mark a striking victory for the party and its candidate Cem Özdemir, who would be well placed to become the first German state premier of Turkish descent in a coalition with the CDU." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
German chancellor’s party heads for narrow defeat in key regional election
Greens projected to take lead in Baden-Württemberg state while AfD almost doubles vote share, according to projections
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Bart Aafjes @bartaafjes68.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Russia and the Trump administration turned #disinformation into a global reality. The truth is just optional..
Disinformation joining in globally together with war, famine, pestilence and death..
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Todd Kolod💙 @toddkolod.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
My Ukrainian friend Ivan from Kyiv gifted me these colorful socks made in Ukraine by the Lviv Socks Cooperative. If you can navigate its website in Ukrainian, you too can be the proud owner. Buying products made in Ukraine helps Ukraine win. leostep.ua @ivanua.bsky.social
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Wow, phänomenales Ergebnis für die Grünen und Cem Özdemir! Allerdings auch nicht ganz überraschend nach dem Momentum der letzten Wochen. Und 17,7 Prozent für die AfD in einem westdeutschen Land ist schon alarmierend/schockierend.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
"US Treasuries are losing their status as the world’s go-to asset in times of crisis — the result, investors say, of erratic geopolitical and economic policy and the erosion of institutions under Trump." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Iran attacks show US haven status is in peril
In moments of extreme uncertainty investors usually rush to the safety of US government bonds, but not this time
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
Alles war früher besser: Wohnfläche pro Person: 1960er: ca. 23 m² 1970er: ca. 26 m² 1990er: ca. 37 m² Heute: ca. 49 m² Und ja, unterschiedliche Quellen und Berechnungsmethoden machen vergleiche manchmal schwer, aber es ist Fakt, dass Leute heute wesentlich mehr Wohnfläche haben.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
Most policy makers wouldn't design such legislation in the first place.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Right-wing extremism is actual the original cancel-culture. Wokism is actually just a way to cancel right-wing cancel-culture.
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Excellent piece! Deutsche Bank again and again
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Stephan Maurer @stephanmaurer.bsky.social · 21/02/2026
www.politico.eu/article/wash... "While the Trump administration has repeatedly told Europeans that it wants them to shoulder the bulk of the continent's conventional defense, the U.S. doesn't want that to come at the expense of American defense firms."
politico.eu
Pentagon aggressively lobbies EU against Buy European weapons push
In previously unreported remarks, the U.S. administration warned Brussels that it will retaliate if Europeans “strong-arm American companies out of the market.”
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Rafael Mentges @rafaelmentges.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
"European bourses have benefited from big investors’ desire to diversify away from Wall Street and its massive technology sector, which has been buffeted this year by concerns over a potential AI bubble." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Investors pour record sums into European stocks
Inflows on track for all-time high in February as global fund managers seek alternatives to expensive US tech shares
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