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Giulio Pugliese

@pugliesasia.bsky.social
168 followers 159 following 93 posts

Enlisted. Well, not really. Director of the EU-Asia Project, European University Institute. Associate Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali.

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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
Nick Kodama 🌳👻 @nickkodama.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
🙃 www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/07...
“The second Trump administration has confirmed that the U.S. is moving toward limited deployment of sea-launched nuclear cruise missiles (SLCM-N) as early as September 2032,” Maehara said, adding that Tokyo must at least review its current posture to ensure American assets that may carry nuclear weapons would not face obstacles entering Japanese ports or waters in a contingency.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
Thank you for a very productive working breakfast in Rome, Madame President.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 02/06/2026
Delighted to be presenting @stratcomcoe.bsky.social in Riga on June 2-3
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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
James D.J. Brown @jamesdjbrown.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
Defence Minister Koizumi: Japan will dispatch 4 SDF personnel to a NATO facility in Germany that trains Ukrainian forces & supplies them with equipment. Koizumi notes that, as well as supporting UKR, this will help JPN learn about new ways of war. www.hokkaido-np.co.jp/article/1317...
hokkaido-np.co.jp
NATOの支援組織へ自衛官派遣 ウクライナ巡り、初事例:北海道新聞デジタル
防衛省は29日、ロシアによる侵攻が続くウクライナを巡り、軍事訓練の実施や装備供給などを司令塔として調整する北大西洋条約機構(NATO)の支援組織に自衛官4人を初めて派遣すると公表した。実際の戦闘には...
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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
Adam P. Liff @adampliff.bsky.social · 05/05/2026
In Berlin on May 18? Join us for 21JPSI's first-ever overseas conference! Theme: "Japan-Europe-U.S. Relations in Turbulent Times" Highlights: Keynote by Japan's Ambassador to Germany Two panels on various issues in trilateral relations. Details and registration: events.iu.edu/ovpia/event/...
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Stephen Walt @stephenwalt.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
Barack Obama's advice--"don't do stupid [stuff]"--now sounds like the epitome of foreign policy wisdom.
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Lee West @whodat35.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
The AP is now calling Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon an invasion. Israel has moved thousands of troops across the border into Lebanon, and Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants have been fighting on the ground for at least three weeks. apnews.com/article/iran...
apnews.com
AP is calling Israel's attack on Lebanon an invasion. What does that mean and why does it matter?
The Associated Press is now calling Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon an invasion. Israel has moved thousands of troops across the border into Lebanon, although it won't say how many.
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Nate Ledbetter @nhledbetter.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
In the age of Trump, the abandonment/entrapment dilemma means the worst outcomes on both ends.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
The Japan “baseball” visit by Taiwan’s Premier implies that Takaichi is fully cognizant of her actions and, maybe, statements. “However, it would be wise to refrain from actions that could be perceived by China as provocative.” 👇 (社説)台湾の要人来日 妥当な判断だったのか digital.asahi.com/articles/DA3...
digital.asahi.com
(社説)台湾の要人来日 妥当な判断だったのか:朝日新聞
台湾の卓栄泰(チュオロンタイ)行政院長(首相)が来日した。ワールド・ベースボール・クラシックの観戦が目的だったというが、行政院長の来日はきわめて異例だ。その判断には首をかしげざるを得ない。 卓氏は7…
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Not happening. 1) the US itself has decided against Hormuz Strait escorts. 2) this is an unpopular war of choice. 2015 legislation allows for an expansive reading of what constitutes “Japan’s survival”, but political call will be hard. 3) escorts in Hormuz are dangerous and resource-intensive.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 10/03/2026
Japan is signaling big time on Taiwan. 1) Oct. 2025 — Takaichi posts on meeting “Taiwan’s presidential office representative” @ APEC. (Notice language — posted after meeting Xi, btw) 2) November 2025 — famous tōben 3) March 2026 - Taiwan’s PM visits Japan. Unhelpful, imho. Also, see below.
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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
Karl Gustafsson @profgustafsson.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
The 7th article in our special issue ‘Kidnapping politics: Captivity passions and international security’ is out in @ejisbisa.bsky.social. Barak Kushner explores how authoritarian states in 20th-century East Asia sought to reeducate captives for security reasons. doi.org/10.1017/eis....
doi.org
Political captives in East Asia: Thought reform and national security | European Journal of International Security | Cambridge Core
Political captives in East Asia: Thought reform and national security
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Now that Iran has sealed off the Strait of Hormuz and the US will escort oil tankers in the Gulf, will Japan invoke Collective Self-Defense to deal with a “survival-threatening scenario”? It was one of the original “strategic narrative” scenarios back in 2015. (Spoiler: No)
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
To all of those claiming this is the real "Liberation Day", or feeling a sense of Schadenfreude, I would encourage you to wait. Congress allows the US executive branch to levy tariffs thanks to Section 122, 201, 301, 232...-- the first one may well be invoked by the Trump administration very soon.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
This interview is aging well (alas). www.eui.eu/news-hub?id=...
eui.eu
Giulio Pugliese on EU-Asia relations post-Trump and the Asia-Pacific scholarship
In this timely conversation, Giulio Pugliese discusses the implications of Trumps election for the AsiaPacific and the growing role of the EU in the region He
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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
Ben Ascione @benasci1.bsky.social · 16/02/2026
My analysis of how PM Takaichi won Japan’s election: a nationalist narrative, personal popularity and digital savvy. But lofty promises of strategic investment and national strength now face the constraints of fiscal reality and intensifying great power competition eastasiaforum.org/2026/02/15/h...
eastasiaforum.org
How Sana-mania swept Japan
Sanae Takaichi’s sweeping victory, powered by personal popularity and digital savvy, now faces the hard test of governing
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James D.J. Brown @jamesdjbrown.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
My article for The Straits Times. I outline the economic and political reasons why, even with her huge mandate, Takaichi won’t have a free hand in pushing reforms. www.straitstimes.com/opinion/taka...
straitstimes.com
Takaichi won’t have a free hand even with her huge mandate
Japan’s PM faces external and internal constraints, including high voter expectations. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Join Prof. Jing Men @eui-schuman.bsky.social on January 21 for what promises to be a lively talk on EU-China relations. www.eui.eu/events?id=58...
eui.eu
A hybrid order under strain: Assessing EU–China relations after five decades
Join Jing Men as she examines how institutional cooperation and strategic rivalry now coexist in EU–China relations
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
My analysis was brought up and discussed on primetime Japanese TV last Sunday. The segment is between 39:10 and 43:00. www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFrb...
youtube.com
【米のベネズエラ攻撃】マドゥロ大統領拘束“首都で40人死亡”東アジアの安全保障は【日曜スクープ】(2026年1月4日)
YouTube video by ANNnewsCH
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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 20/12/2025
This year was my first full year working for myself, writing analysis for clients and a public-facing newsletter. By my count I wrote 105 client notes and 167 Substack posts. Here's a short thread with some of my favorite among the latter (which may also be a year in review of Japan's politics).
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
More from yours truly on US-China undercurrents feeding into China’s punitive stance vis-a-vis Japan. 中国、対日強硬の裏に米中「雪解け」 欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ氏:日本経済新聞 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...
nikkei.com
中国、対日強硬の裏に米中「雪解け」 欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ氏 - 日本経済新聞
高市早苗首相の台湾有事を巡る発言や、それに対する中国の駐大阪総領事のSNS投稿を巡り、日中が対立している。欧州大学院(EUI)の国際政治学者、ジュリオ・プリエセ氏はインタビューで、米中関係で「雪解け」ともいえるデタント(緊張緩和)が進んだことが、中国の対日強硬姿勢に拍車をかけているとの分析を示した。主なやりとりは以下の通り。――高市早苗首相の台湾有事をめぐる発言に対し、中国政府が日本に強硬な対
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 17/11/2025
Well thank you, Hiro, for the kind words (and for the interview): “米中日関係に詳しい欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ博士は台湾問題で接点を探るため、米中がひそかに折衝している可能性を指摘する” 高市外交、対中打開は日米から ヒントは欧州流に:日本経済新聞 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZ...
nikkei.com
高市外交、中国との対立打開は日米から ヒントは欧州流に - 日本経済新聞
台湾有事をめぐる高市早苗首相の発言に対し、中国政府の強硬な反応が際立っている。中国人の安全が「重大なリスク」にさらされていると決めつけ、自国民に訪日を当面控えるよう呼びかけるのは、一線を越えた反応だ。中国の対応は高市氏への警戒感だけでなく、10月の米中首脳会談を受け、対米関係の打開に自信を深めたことも一因だろう。米中日関係に詳しい欧州大学院のジュリオ・プリエセ博士は台湾問題で接点を探るため、
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 12/11/2025
Where did China’s Taiwan invasion “dress rehearsals” (cit. US IndoPacom) go? Aside from military-civil relations, US-China “G2” conversations may also explain quieter cross-Strait waters, at least on the kinetic side. jamestown.org/program/beij...
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Reposted by Giulio Pugliese
Aya Adachi @ayaadachi.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Fantastic piece by @ellipohlkamp.bsky.social on what conclusions the EU should draw from the Trump-Takaichi meeting. Worth a read.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
Everything you wanted to know about Taiwan, but were afraid to ask. (by @insisa.bsky.social and yours truly). We'll be auditioned by the European Parliament on December 11 on the basis of this mammoth report. www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en...
europarl.europa.eu
How to use the maximum of potential for the EU-Taiwan cooperation - what can the EU learn from the US and other actors? | Think Tank | European Parliament
How to use the maximum of potential for the EU-Taiwan cooperation - what can the EU learn from the US and other actors?
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Pesceriso = Flavio Parisi @pesceriso.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Il 9 settembre esce il mio secondo libro TOKYO È UNA GRANDE CUCINA I GIAPPONESI SI CONOSCONO A TAVOLA Come ho imparato a mangiare in Giappone, come ho conosciuto il giappone, e soprattutto il suo popolo, mangiando e bevendo insieme a persone di ogni tipo, amici,compagni di tavola, bancone di izakaya
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Jesse Johnson @jljzen.bsky.social · 05/08/2025
BREAKING: Australia to buy 11 advanced Japanese frigates in breakthrough for Tokyo www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/08...
japantimes.co.jp
Australia to buy 11 advanced Japanese frigates in breakthrough for Tokyo
Canberra will purchase the Mogami-class frigates in what will be Tokyo’s biggest-ever postwar defense contract, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles said.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
"[JMOD] said any response would 'be implemented on an individual and specific basis in accordance with the constitution, international law, and domestic laws and regulations'." In fact, GoJ has been, quietly, ticking all the above boxes in recent years. on.ft.com/4lpqwAr
on.ft.com
US demands to know what allies would do in event of war over Taiwan
Trump administration raises eyebrows by calling for commitments from Australia and Japan
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Sarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · 22/06/2025
If shipping can bypass the Red Sea and Suez Canal by going all the way around Africa and still report increases in profit as a result, there’s really no reason why ships going East of Taiwan instead of through the congested Taiwan Strait should cause that big of a disruption. Just saying
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
Telling interview on Japan's role in a Taiwan war: 1) Defense of Taiwan can happen if Japanese people's "daily activities" are infringed --pretty broad (Art. 13 hehe). 2) Japan can establish direct comms with Taiwan in "wartime" (i.e. end of strategic ambiguity) www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qIS...
youtube.com
Japan’s Role in a Taiwan Contingency Under Its “No War” Clause | Taiwan Talks
YouTube video by Taiwan Talks
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
I just found out that the US Department of State’s Taiwan Fact Sheet has disappeared. Through Wayback Machine (the Internet archive) it happened sometime in late April 2025. Shortly after the NSC clean up, three weeks+ after “Liberation Day”. Maybe conducive to US-China talks on Monday.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 06/06/2025
I just found out that the US Department of State’s Taiwan Fact Sheet has disappeared. Through Wayback Machine (the Internet archive) it happened sometime in late April 2025. Shortly after the NSC clean up, three weeks+ after “Liberation Day”. Maybe conducive to US-China talks on Monday.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
Very interesting opening at NATO HQ: a China analyst to monitor and devise countermeasures to Chinese narratives on NATO. Effectively to buttress NATO’s public diplomacy and explain its IP4 engagement, I imagine.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 17/05/2025
Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia details closed-door conversations among strategists on the legal and strategic merits for Japan to deny it has a “One China” policy. www.spf.org/spf-china-ob...
spf.org
【SPF China Observer】「一つの中国」からの卒業? | SPF China Observer | 笹川平和財団
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The Robert Schuman Centre @eui-schuman.bsky.social · 13/05/2025
🔍 How are shifting US alliances and global uncertainty reshaping Asia–Europe relations? In this interview, @pugliesasia.bsky.social reflects on the second Trump administration, rearmament in East Asia, and Europe’s role in a changing geopolitical landscape. 📖 Full interview here🔗 loom.ly/klJNIh8
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
And the indispensable @rudyakmarina.bsky.social, not to mention the impresario @neysunm.bsky.social :-)
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Marc Julienne @marcjulienne.bsky.social · 12/05/2025
🇪🇺🇨🇳 In very good company to discuss EU-China relations amid the Trump II era. @pugliesasia.bsky.social @ludovicameacci.bsky.social @franspaulvdputten.bsky.social @unaaleksandra.bsky.social @rturcsanyi.bsky.social It's on @chinafile.bsky.social 👇 www.chinafile.com/conversation...
chinafile.com
How Will the Trump Presidency Change EU-China Relations?
Over the past few years, European countries have started to line up with the United States on China policy. But now, as Donald Trump destroys the trust European countries had in America, China is step...
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Dan Sneider @dcsneider.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
Japan says no to the UK "deal" -- or to the idea of a global tariff baseline that Trump is wedded to. Should be fun. www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
japantimes.co.jp
Ishiba vows Japan will stand its ground, demanding U.S. lift auto tariffs
The U.S. is an important market for the Japanese automobile industry, accounting for about 20% of its total car exports in terms of volume and about 30% in terms of value.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 11/05/2025
The “elephant in the room” problem here is that we’ll end throwing the baby (global rules) with the dirty bathwater (need to balance China) in the process. The US-UK trade deal Amb. Mandelson signed a couple of days ago —including meek acceptance of 10% baseline tariffs— provides evidence of that.
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Jesse Johnson @jljzen.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
"The number of U.S. diplomats, excluding local hires, jumped to more than 110 last year, from around 80 in 2022, the official revealed on condition of anonymity. The number of Japanese diplomats rose to almost 40, from 25 in 2022." asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Int...
asia.nikkei.com
US, UK, Japan diplomatic contingents in Taiwan are bigger than ever
Sources reveal buildup of officials despite China's efforts to isolate Taipei
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Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/05/2025
Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
As Taiwan makes The Economist's cover story, do come over to @eui-schuman.bsky.social on May 7 and register for this event that I organized. Kerry Brown, @billemmott.bsky.social & Chikako Ueki will be presenting their books and research: Taiwan & the risk of WWIII. www.eui.eu/events?id=57...
eui.eu
Taiwan and the risk of World War III
Join this discussion where experts examine Taiwan’s geopolitical significance, evolving deterrence strategies, and the broader implications for regional and global security.
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Bill Emmott @billemmott.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Do come to EUI May 7 at 14.00 for what should be a great discussion on Taiwan
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
As Taiwan makes The Economist's cover story, do come over to @eui-schuman.bsky.social on May 7 and register for this event that I organized. Kerry Brown, @billemmott.bsky.social & Chikako Ueki will be presenting their books and research: Taiwan & the risk of WWIII. www.eui.eu/events?id=57...
eui.eu
Taiwan and the risk of World War III
Join this discussion where experts examine Taiwan’s geopolitical significance, evolving deterrence strategies, and the broader implications for regional and global security.
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
We should all have Twitter/X accounts (and maybe also Truth Social ones) to avoid a Bluesky echo chamber, and witness firsthand MAGA’s grip on the Trump administration. MAGA restrainers likely on the rise in the US NSC.
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Noah Barkin @noahbarkin.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
Waltz and Wong are both out. MAGA is winning out over the China hawks. This will resonate in Asian and European capitals www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/tru...
cbsnews.com
Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz and his deputy to leave posts in White House
President Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz and deputy Alex Wong are leaving the White House, multiple sources tell CBS News.
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Global Governance Programme @eui-ggp.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
📝 Next week at the Global Governance Programme: explore food security amid global shocks, trade opening and sustainability, Japan’s evolving security strategy, and Taiwan’s role in regional security. Register now ➡️ buff.ly/Kw0BOvY
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Sarah Kirchberger @sarahkirchberger.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
A trip down memory lane 15y ago in April 2010 I started as a Sinology professor at Hamburg Uni following a couple of years in naval shipbuilding. In those days we had numerous Russian students (who were on average conscientious and polite) and one day, a Russian Sinology professor dropped by. A 🧵
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
In her remarks in Taiwan, prime minister-hopeful Takaichi calls for quasi-Asian NATO alliance by avoiding reference to the US (meaning the hosts and, lately, Takaichi have deep reservations on Trump) and the ROK (meaning she doesn’t like South Korea…). www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/...
taipeitimes.com
Ex-Japanese minister calls for regional alliance with Taiwan - Taipei Times
Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
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Giulio Pugliese @pugliesasia.bsky.social · 26/04/2025
Ten months ago, I wrote something conceptual and policy-oriented on the drivers behind NATO & IP4 defense industrial cooperation, with a focus on Japan & Italy. The highlighted dynamics are still playing out (and foresaw the spoiler to the fourth one...). www.spf.org/iina/en/arti...
spf.org
【Cooperation between European and Indo-Pacific Powers in the US alliance system project:Policy Paper Vol. 6】How to Facilitate NATO-IP4 Defense Industrial Cooperation: The Case of Italy and Japan | Lis...
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