Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 06/08/2025This morning’s walk - a Cotswolds hare enjoying the early sun. 060
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 18/06/2025RIP the great, great Alfred Brendel. There are so many wonderful recordings by him to choose from—the Schubert piano sonatas, the Beethoven piano sonatas and more. But this recording of the Brahms piano concerto no.1 is hard to beat. Recorded in 1979, it’s still glorious. Musical titan, indeed. 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 10/06/2025The Lee-Ishiba call ticked the boxes it needed to to keep ROK-Japan relations on an even keel. Ishiba’s was the second call made by Lee to a foreign leader (after that to Trump) after taking office. Cf prev ‘progressive’ Moon, where Japan was behind China. english.kyodonews.net/news/2025/06...english.kyodonews.netJapan, South Korea leaders agree to build stable ties in 1st phone talksJapanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and new South Korean President Lee Jae Myung agree to build stable bilateral ties amid a severe strategic environment, with both expressing hope to meet in perso... 030
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Last night’s view - Tokyo Tower looking superb. #東京タワー 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/06/2025Sunset this evening in Tokyo with Mt Fuji silhouetted in the distance. Yesterday’s rain has cleared the air. Just stunning. #sunset #富士山 #mountfuji #japan 030
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/06/2025One of the joys of Tokyo in June is the roadside hydrangeas. Spotted these gorgeous specimens over the past couple of days. #Japan 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 05/06/2025Japan’s new demographic stats are a shocker. Speed of recent decline in Japan’s births is clear in this Nikkei chart—dip below 1.1m in 2005, below 1m in 2016, below 900,000 in 2019, below 800,000 in 2022 and below 700,000 in 2024. All this 15 yrs ahead of govt’s expectation. Nikkei chart. 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 27/05/2025Nikkei map showing Kamandag military exercise (shaded blue circle). Spread of countries represented is striking—US, Philippines, Japan, ROK, UK. Map also refers to strategic alignment between China, Russia and DPRK and China’s own maritime advances. 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 22/05/2025US sld have studied Japan’s response to China’s curbs on rare earth exports to 🇯🇵 as bilateral geopol tensions rose. An early example of 🇨🇳’s weaponisation of trade interdependence. 🇯🇵 changed policy in response, building stockpiles etc. Here, US looks underprepared for geoecon struggle w 🇨🇳. FT pic. 041
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 21/05/2025Asahi chart showing top 10 foreign holders of US Treasuries. With USD1.3trn, Japan tops the league, well ahead of no.2 UK and no.3 China. But this is not really a leverage tool for Tokyo in negotiations. PM Hashimoto issued veiled threat in 90s, but rowed back. 🇯🇵 🇺🇸 security rels too important. 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 19/05/2025A beautiful light on yesterday’s walk first thing, despite the cloud. #Cotswolds #landscape #countryside 060
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 19/05/2025PM Ishiba exaggerates somewhat. Yes, Japan’s public debt stock is higher %GDP than Greece’s, but the economies are quite different structurally, Japan has its own currency/owns most of its debt etc. Ishiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparison www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/05...japantimes.co.jpIshiba rebuffs tax cut demands with Greek debt comparisonThe premier said he disagrees with the idea of funding tax cuts with Japanese government bonds, signaling caution over additional government spending. 010
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 15/05/20252025 was to have been a banner year for Japan-ROK ties, marks 60 yrs since diplo relations started. This hiccup highlights lingering bilateral challenges, compounded by political uncertainties on both sides. www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...stripes.comSouth Korea denies report of first-ever joint drill with Japanese troops in PhilippinesSouth Korea’s Ministry of National Defense denied a report that its marines will participate in joint drills with Japanese forces. 041
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 14/05/2025Global current-account (im)balances—‘Donald Trump’s presidency is in part a symptom of this reality’. From excellent Wolf piece in FT on excess global savings. 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/05/2025Very pleased to announce that my new IISS Adelphi book on Japan is nearly with us. The tome considers whether 🇯🇵’s new grand strategy, defence reforms etc are up to the strategic task that 🇯🇵 has set itself against the background of increasing tensions around Taiwan in particular. On Amazon etc. 031
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 02/05/2025A reminder of China’s live-fire exercises around Taiwan. Map from this week’s Economist piece on the exercises foreshadowing a Chinese blockade of the island. 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 30/04/2025This morning’s walk - some unexpected companions. #Cotswolds 010
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 27/04/2025This morning’s walk. A carpet of English bluebells—there are few things finer. #Cotswolds #bluebells 150
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 25/04/2025Beautiful Paris - Île Saint-Louis, 4th, yesterday. #Paris #streetscape #city 041
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 25/04/2025Apple’s shift of for-US iPhone assembly to India from China highlights how quickly some production can move (here, by end-2026) and how US economic policy will force further supply-chain fragmentation—for-China production/for RoW prod already in train—as MNCs build resilience. FT paras. 010
Reposted by Robert WardFinbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 25/04/2025Chinese biz mag Caijing the first to report Chinese tariff exemptions for certain chip imports, then more from Bloomberg and Reuters China blinked too - but not publicly. And the most interesting line: "The Caijing report was deleted from its website and official WeChat channel by noon Friday" 1177
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 24/04/2025Hidden Paris - 11th, last week. #Paris #streetscene #city 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 24/04/2025Some rare good news… Excellent to see concrete things happening as UK-Japan strategic economic relations tighten. All the more so given fragmentation of cross-border data flows. This will be good for R&D and more in this critical area. asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec....asia.nikkei.comJapan, UK to ease personal data transfers to foster medical researchTokyo will work to match privacy protections with global leader Britain 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 23/04/2025Sir András Schiff after a sensational 90 minutes or so of Bach’s Art of Fugue last night at La Salle Pierre Boulez at the Philharmonie de Paris. Stunning. 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 23/04/2025Walk in Paris last week - rue du Faubourg Saint-Antoine. #Paris #streetscape #city 040
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 19/04/2025So many favourites from the visit earlier this week to see the David Hockney show at Paris’s Fondation Louis Vuitton. Joyous, fabulous and life-affirming—lifted the spirits… 140
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 14/04/2025Today, April 14th, marks 113 years since the Titanic sank. A while ago I managed to hunt down this picture of my great grandfather, Percy Ward, a bedroom steward on the ship and who went down with it. RIP to him and all who lost their lives that night. #Titanic113 030
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 14/04/2025Great FT chart showing UK productivity and real wages since 1800. UK’s current productivity stagnation unprecedented since 18th century. As Wolf says in the open: ‘…the UK economy has gone ex-growth’. 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 11/04/2025Another glorious sunrise in this corner of the Cotswolds today—complete with morning mist too. #landscape #cotswolds 0230
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 09/04/2025Inflation is one thing, but suspect investors are also pricing in a Trump move on the US capital account too. Wld be highly disruptive, but those around Trump have been flagging this for a while. www.reuters.com/markets/glob...reuters.comBond rout starting to sound market alarm bellsU.S. Treasuries extended heavy losses on Wednesday in a sign investors are selling even their safest assets as a global market rout unleashed by U.S. tariffs takes an unnerving turn towards distress and a dash for the safety of cash. 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 07/04/2025Japan wants a stronger yen, but not like this—JPY rising at a time of acute global trade stress against the USD and the RMB (chart), two key export markets, and with its production bases in Southeast Asia reeling under brutal US tariffs. Nikkei chart shows 🇯🇵 firms ops in SEA. Grim. 130
Reposted by Robert Wardmulboyne.bsky.social @mulboyne.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Ah...English Curry. Think this is more the taste of Hokkaido, than home. 1211
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 03/04/2025Asia a clear focus of Trump’s tariffs—for many they’re swingeing, for some they’re brutal, eg Vietnam 46%. Difficult to think of a policy that wld have been better calibrated to drive swathes of the region closer into China’s orbit. US strategic position in Asia is now significantly weaker. FT chart 021
Reposted by Robert WardSam Lowe @samuelmarclowe.bsky.social · 02/04/2025This is where all the information actually is, by the way 31610
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 02/04/2025The bad news for Japan (and others) from Trump tariff speech today is compounded by the eyewatering tariffs on Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%) others used as export bases. Moreover, China (34%), surely, has no choice but to retaliate given the politics. The end of the global trading order that was. 130
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 02/04/2025Trump’s comment in tariff speech that ‘TPP would have been a disaster if I hadn’t terminated it’ isn’t a surprise, but puts pressure on Japan and UK as largest economies in TPP’s successor, CPTPP, to think even more strategically about trade bloc’s role in now rapidly fragmenting 🌍 trading system. 011
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 02/04/2025Trump tariff speech bleak for Japan. 🇯🇵 car market singled out, 🇯🇵 in line for 24% US reciprocal tariff, 🇯🇵 swept into ‘friend is worse than foe’ in trade terms bucket. Trump’s praise for ‘fantastic man’ late PM Abe Shinzo a rare bright spot for Tokyo. Cold water after SecDef Hegseth visit success in 🇯🇵 032
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 02/04/2025This morning’s walk - just after sunrise. #Cotswolds #landscape #sunrise 0110
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 01/04/2025Demographic decline in Europe and Asia writ large: Italy’s births hit record low of <400k in 2024, 16th year of straight decline. Japan’s births, meanwhile, hit 125-year low (ie, since records began) in 2024, 9th year of consecutive decline heading towards 700k. FT charts. 000
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 01/04/2025Nikkei outlines the difficulties Japan is having with economic diplomacy with the US and tariffs. Repeating the Abe playbook of identifying interests, buying time with negotiations is not working. This was always optimistic given Trump 2 radicalisation. www.nikkei.com/article/DGKK...nikkei.com米関税交渉、カード絞れず 政府、鉄・アルミ・車の除外失敗 産業界に諦め広がる - 日本経済新聞トランプ米大統領の2期目が始動してから2カ月が経過し、日本の経済外交が後手に回る場面が目立ち始めた。米国の狙いが読み切れず交渉カードを絞りきれない。日本経済の屋台骨である自動車への25%追加関税が発表され、産業界には政府交渉への諦観も広がりつつある。「我が国の除外を確認するに至っていないという報告を先ほど事務方から受けた」。武藤容治経済産業相は3月28日の閣議後の記者会見で、トランプ関税を巡る 040
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 31/03/2025SecDef Hegseth’s visit to Japan went well—altho 🇯🇵 will be asked to do increasingly more in bilat alliance. Follows successful 🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇮🇳 🇦🇺 Quad Foreign Ministers’ mtg in Jan. Reflects in part the legacy of PM Abe’s strong relationship with Trump 1 and that of PM Kishida’s historic defence reforms. 030
Reposted by Robert WardJesse Johnson @jljzen.bsky.social · 30/03/2025US SecDef in Tokyo: In opening remarks ahead of talks with JPN counterpart, Hegseth stressed the strength of the alliance, saying it "has never been stronger." "President Trump has also been clear on what a great relationship he has with Japan." 232
Reposted by Robert WardAndrius Kubilius @andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu · 29/03/202521 yrs ago, 🇱🇹🇱🇻🇪🇪🇧🇬🇷🇴🇸🇰🇸🇮 joined NATO in a 'big bang' accession. We knew collective defense was key to safeguarding our independence. And it did. Today, in these times of a clear and present danger, Europe needs a 'big bang' in defence production and readiness. 514941
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 29/03/2025Another glorious start to the day - memories of the long, grey and damp winter are now fading. #landscape #cotswolds #fujifilmxt5 030
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 28/03/2025Trump Could Hand China a ‘Strategic Victory’ by Silencing Voice of America www.nytimes.com/2025/03/28/b...nytimes.comTrump Could Hand China a ‘Strategic Victory’ by Silencing Voice of AmericaGenerations of Chinese, including our columnist, turned to U.S. government-run outlets for an education in democracy, rights and the English language. 010
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 28/03/2025A reminder of Japan’s proximity to Taiwan and of the threat to 🇯🇵 from any 🇹🇼 ‘emergency’. Graphic from Nikkei piece on govt plans to evacuate 120k ppl over 6-day periods from 🇯🇵’s exposed southwestern region to Kyushu, Yamaguchi Prefecture in such an emergency. 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 27/03/2025Yes, perhaps not a return to 1930s exactly despite rising US tariffs, but the damage to trade and trust will be lasting and broad, with a knock-on to global growth. Some useful data in WSJ article. www.wsj.com/economy/trad...wsj.comTrade War Explodes Across World at Pace Not Seen in DecadesProliferating tariffs engulfing the U.S., China and their partners draw parallels to the protectionist spiral of the 1930s. 030
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 26/03/2025IISS Japan Chair event 🔔 alert🔔 ‼️ 👉webinar on the geo-economics of critical materials, green tech and more in the Indo-Pacific. Details 👇👇👇👇 🌐 Webinar 📆 Thurs 3 April ⏰ 12:00-13:00 BST 💬 Panel: Tatsushi Amano Dr Kristin Vekasi Dr Suzuki Hitoshi Registration 👇👇👇👇 www.iiss.org/events/2025/...iiss.orgCritical minerals and green industries in the Indo-PacificIn this IISS Webinar, the speakers will explore the geo-economics of the Indo-Pacific with a particular focus on the nexus between critical minerals and green industries, especially electric vehicles (EV) supply chains. 020
Robert Ward @robertalanward.bsky.social · 24/03/2025Japanese novels having a moment in UK—🇯🇵 authors have 40% of sales of translated novels in 🇬🇧, Yuzuki’s Butter sells more in 🇬🇧 than in 🇯🇵. Chart from Nikkei showing top 🇯🇵 novels in translation in UK. 🇯🇵 culture enjoying boom elsewhere in UK too. 010