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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

A conjoint experiment with hypothetical candidates was included after the main experiment in one of the two surveys. The results show that respondents also had more favorable views toward female candidates in the abstract after the treatments. 7/10

Figure 6: Marginal means of the gender attribute in the conjoint experiment, by treatment group. Note: Each circle in the top row represents the estimated marginal means (MMs) for each category of gender on a respondent’s probability of choosing a hypothetical politician. The horizontal bars represent 95% confidence intervals robust to clustering at the respondent level. The top row shows the MMs by treatment group; the bottom row shows the differences between the indicated treatment groups.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

We then look at outcomes for female candidates specifically. The results show that both treatments (information and compulsory preference voting) increase vote shares for female candidates (though there is no apparent additive effect). 6/10

Figure 5: Share of female candidate supporters, by treatment group. Note: White and light gray bars represent the support rates of female candidates across treatment groups in each election year. Dark gray bars represent support rates in the aggregated sample of both surveys. All group means are bounded by 95% confidence intervals.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

We first find that providing information increases respondents use of the preference vote (rather than simply voting for a party, thus relegating the choice over candidates to other voters). In other words, when voters have more information, they are more likely to cast a preference vote. 5/10

Figure 4: Proportion of preference voters by treatment group, with and without information. Note: White and light gray bars represent the rates of preference voting across Groups 1 and 2 in each election year. Dark gray bars represent rates in the aggregated sample of both surveys. All group means include 95% confidence intervals.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

The candidate profiles included information on prior political experience and other markers of quality, which could disabuse voters of uncertainty or statistical discrimination related to female candidates' qualifications. 4/10

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Our experiments, fielded during campaigns for Japan's upper house and featuring the actual candidates running, included two treatments: (1) providing candidate background info; (2) making preference voting compulsory. Our main DV is the share of preference votes for female candidates. 3/10

Figure 2: Experimental design: information (𝑇1 ) and compulsory preference voting (𝑇2 ). Note: Group 1 received no treatment. Group 2 and Group 4 received treatment 1, the option to view biographical profiles of candidates for any party. Group 3 and Group 4 received treatment 2, compulsory preference vote (no party vote). All groups first voted on prefectural tier candidates; Group 2 and Group 4 were also shown candidate profiles for prefectural candidates. For the 2019 survey, respondents in all groups completed ten conjoint exercises featuring hypothetical candidates after the main experiment.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

Open-list PR features long lists of candidates, making it harder for voters to choose among them. This might hurt female candidates' prospects, through statistical discrimination or because women voters are less likely to cast preference votes, but more likely to support women when they do. 2/10

Figure 1: Party lists in the national tier (with female candidates indicated). Note: The ballot shown is for three parties (LDP, DP, JCP) in the 2016 election. In the actual survey, respondents viewed a single, continuous ballot with three columns (parties), stacked, with additional parties. Arrows indicate female candidates (not shown to respondents). Party names and gender composition of each list (M, F) are indicated above ballot headings.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

New in @electoralstudies.bsky.social w/Justin F. Reeves: "Getting to know her: Information and gender bias in preferential voting systems." Can women's success in open-list PR elections be improved by (1) providing candidate information and/or (2) making preference voting compulsory? 🧵1/10

Abstract/title page of article in Electoral Studies: "Getting to know her: Information and gender bias in preferential voting systems," by Justin F. Reeves and Daniel M. Smith.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 05/11/2025

✨ Now at QJPS: "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan" w/ @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social & @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social. Open-access link to article: www.nowpublishers.com/article/Deta...

Screenshot of title page of article, "Winning Elections with Unpopular Policies: Valence Advantage and Single-Party Dominance in Japan" at QJPS.

Screenshot of Figure 4 in article: Decomposing the LDP's valence.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 24/10/2025

Upcoming virtual seminar: "Japan's New Prime Minister Takaichi: What Can We Expect?" Register ⬇️ iu.zoom.us/meeting/regi...

Poster advertising upcoming virtual seminar about Japan's new prime minister.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

Happy to see this article now "in print" at @polbehavior.bsky.social 🎉 Open-access: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 28/08/2025

🎉Now online (open access): "Hidden Majoritarianism and Women’s Career Progression in Proportional Representation Systems" at @apsrjournal.bsky.social. @alicirone.bsky.social, @teele.bsky.social, Gary Cox, @fiva.no. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 18/06/2025

What happened in Japan's 2024 general election, when the ruling LDP had its second worst seat loss in history? "Japan Decides 2024" is now available for pre-order, and due in print in fall. The volume features extensive analysis from top scholars of Japanese politics. a.co/d/8LHANvH

Book cover of "Japan Decides 2024: The Japanese General Election," edited by Kenneth M. McElwain, Robert J. Pekkanen, and Daniel M. Smith.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 04/03/2025

Updated paper w/ @alicirone.bsky.social, @teele.bsky.social, Gary Cox, & @fiva.no. Using a century of data from Norway, we investigate the effects of "hidden majoritarianism" (single-occupant positions) on women's representation and careers in PR systems. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The figure shows that men are overrepresented in single-occupant positions like mayor and list leader in Norway, 1921-2021.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 28/02/2025

US politics is a mess, so here's a timeline cleanse w/ new research on Japanese politics: @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social, @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social and I have an updated paper on the role of policy vs. valence in LDP dominance. Now with 2024 election results! papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 30/10/2024

With @yusakuhoriuchi.bsky.social, @shirokuriwaki.bsky.social & Shusei Eshima, I've conducted survey experiments w/ voters in recent Japanese election campaigns. Compared to 2021, 2024 shows a big drop in reported trust of the LDP. The LDP appears to have lost its valence advantage. #JapanDecides2024

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 10/04/2024

More of *this* would be great for Japan studies.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 10/03/2024

History's deadliest air raid hit Tokyo on March 10, 1945. We study the long-run effects of this destruction on neighborhood communities in this forthcoming article at @thejop.bsky.social: Gated: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... Gift (50, for those w/o access): urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 26/10/2023

Nice surprise in the mail today! For work w/ Shusei Eshima on voter evaluations of age in candidate choice experiments. Many thanks to the committee and Representation & Electoral Systems Section of @apsa.bsky.social! Shout-out also to @noamlupu.bsky.social and Zach Warner, who are co-winners.

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Dan Smith @profdansmith.bsky.social · 20/09/2023

Open-rank faculty position in Korean politics at Penn! Review of applications will begin October 15. Please spread the word and consider applying if your work connects to Korean politics (any specialization). ⬇️ apply.interfolio.com/132227

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