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Phil Aldrick

@philaldrick.bsky.social
319 followers 44 following 103 posts

Senior economics reporter, Bloomberg

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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The BOE is planning on holding some MPC meetings in Leeds from next year, possibly even December this year. The first time, bar remote voting in Covid, that the Old Lady of Threadneedle St will have to share the honour. Burnham will no doubt approve www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
BOE Rate Setters to Head North for Interest Rate Decisions
Barring remote sessions during Covid, the UK’s rate setters have gathered in London to make their decision at every meeting since the Bank of England gained independence over monetary policy. From nex...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
“Stronger efforts” are needed to cut spending and bring debt under control in the UK as growth slows, OECD says. Inflation is above 2% in 2026 and 2027 making it 6yrs (bar 3mths) that CPI is above target. But BOE can hold rates and cut in 2027, it adds. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
UK Urged to Cut Spending as Growth Slows in OECD Forecasts
The UK needs to make “stronger efforts” to cut spending and bring debt under control as growth slows this year and next, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The obstacle they identify is that arms length regulators with narrow remits prevent broader, cross-cutting plans. Eg. Natural England rejects reservoirs, totally in keeping with its remit, so none get built. Public control is about centralising some power to break through these barriers to growth.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The public finance rejoinder is that borrowing on the primary fiscal rule is £4.8bn above forecast after 5 months as higher inflation drives up spending (even more than stronger tax receipts). Devco bonds are not gilt issuance but the fiscal backdrop does not help www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
UK Borrowing Exceeds Forecast in Budget Setback for Healey
Britain borrowed more than forecast in the first five months of the fiscal year after rising inflation drove up spending in a blow to Chancellor of the Exchequer John Healey ahead of his debut budget ...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
yes, the govt. A contingent liability, hence why devco borrowing under current arrangements is on the books. But it's not competing for gilt issuance and the bonds should be paid from revenue created, not tax receipts. Europe's preferred public finance measure excludes them, and gets stuff built
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Reeves was embracing the idea. She pushed for a new Cambridge Devco and planned more for new towns. Cambridge will soon have planning approval powers, a key step towards issuing its own bonds - distinct from gilts and financed by future development revs www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Labour Mulls Fiscal Rule Exemption to Boost UK Building Projects
Britain’s new Labour government has been considering a proposal from Keir Starmer’s time in office, by which borrowing for building projects would be excluded from the fiscal rules.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Starmer's govt laid the groundwork, as @SamCoatesSky at Sky News revealed in leaked documents. People around Burnham say it fits his devo plans better than it did Starmer's agenda. Top investors like L&G are keen for the debt to be off the books. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Burnham's team are looking at proposals to exclude public corporations from the fiscal rules to let them borrow on their own account to speed up infrastructure investment. It's a model Britain pioneered, Europe copied and ONS accounting now prohibits. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Labour Mulls Fiscal Rule Exemption to Boost UK Building Projects
Britain’s new Labour government has been considering a proposal from Keir Starmer’s time in office, by which borrowing for building projects would be excluded from the fiscal rules.
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Thomas Aubrey @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Thanks to @philaldrick.bsky.social for quoting me on why using public corporation debt to finance infrastructure can lead to lower gilt yields. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-22/labour-mulls-fiscal-rule-exemption-to-boost-uk-building-projects?srnd=undefined
bloomberg.com
Labour Mulls Fiscal Rule Exemption to Boost UK Building Projects
Britain’s new Labour government has been considering a proposal from Keir Starmer’s time in office, by which borrowing for building projects would be excluded from the fiscal rules.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Are we seeing signs of Labour trying a version of America's Abundance agenda? Healey pledged to clear the “thicket” of regulatory weeds strangling business and slowing growth in Monday's speech. With no room for big giveaways, it's a lever he can pull www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Healey Looks Beyond the Bond Markets to a Britain of Abundance
John Healey wants “to gets things done,” Britain’s new finance minister said in his first major speech on Monday. The problem is that the country’s fiscal position keeps deteriorating as conflict in t...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
Burnham's devo plans are light on financial detail and rooted in the belief that wealth gathers where power resides. Break the Westminster stranglehold and regional growth will flourish www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
AI models are like lying teenagers, BOE deputy governor Sarah Breeden says. from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Harry QP @harryqp.bsky.social · 30/06/2026
1/ Commentators seeking to define what a Burnham premiership might look like focus on "Manchesterism: without analysing the constraints that Burnham will face as Prime Minister that he didn’t as Mayor. open.substack.com/pub/harryqui...
open.substack.com
The realist case for progressive political leadership
How Andy Burnham can overcome political and policy constraints to deliver real change
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
UK aid spending is at risk of falling below the dismal 0.3% of GDP under a deal agreed by FCDO that will gives the Home Office a fifth of the £10bn budget and lets it recycle any savings from closing migrant hotels into non-aid spending (like policing). www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
UK Aid Budget Threatened by Funding Deal for Housing Refugees
Hundreds of millions of pounds of aid spending are at risk under the terms of a funding settlement to manage the cost of housing people seeking asylum in the UK.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 29/03/2026
Trump’s war with Iran is ushering in a new nuclear arms race. Those without the bomb fear they are now exposed as the established global orders break apart. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The OBR's David Miles and IFS's Helen Miller yesterday warned the govt can't afford to protect households from rising energy costs as a result of the Iran war. People need to adjust their expectations of what the state can do after Covid and Truss's 2022 energy package.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 05/03/2026
The Bank of England is running AI macroeconomic scenarios to anticipate what the tech may do to UK jobs and growth, as well as the potential risk of a financial shock. The internal work follows the apocalyptic Citrini report and the OBR's own assessment www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Tony Yates @t0nyyates.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Genius
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 04/03/2026
Reeves got lucky with the OBR forecast - for once. But the UK's fortunes are again tied to events outside our control. Her fiscal event was supposed to be nothing-to-see here. But more striking was what she didn't say. (Defence,energy, migration, spending pressure) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Reeves’ Say-Nothing Moment Left Britain’s Big Challenges Unanswered
Rachel Reeves had promised to deliver a nothing-to-see-here spring forecast this week, an event to be celebrated for its uneventfulness. After war erupted in the Middle East, however, Tuesday’s statem...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
Labour's growth plan is more investment. Most (80pc) is UK private sector. By driving up employment costs, it is pushing firms to invest. The numbers are improving. But the price is higher unemployment. UK is looking less US these days, and more French www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Bizarre twist in Reeves’ plan to scrap the OBR headroom assessment in the Spring Statement next month. It won’t technically assess her fiscal rules but it will publish a headroom number, Treasury Perm Sec said yesterday. Which begs the question, what’s the point ..?
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
BOE appears to think it has tamed inflation even after cutting rates twice more this year. The more immediate danger now seems to be a spike unemployment. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Trawling through BoE transcripts from 2017 released today was this limerick sign-off from Minouche Shafik, now Starmer’s econ adviser, at her last MPC meeting. Inspired by @adamposen.bsky.social who “took to poetry in his final meeting” apparently
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
The OECD is drawing up fiscal literacy classes for politicians to ensure they get the risks when calling for tax cuts or spending hikes. Any parliament can join. Several are interested tho not Westminster yet. Scotland will launch a version after its election. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Lessons in Markets on the Way for Budget-Challenged Politicians
From London to Pretoria, finance ministers around the world are struggling to pass painful budgets in the face of political opposition. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has a ...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Despite being a “proud” recipient of welfare he believes that state has become unaffordable and the benefit bill needs to be brought under control www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
He’s evidently a little disappointed with the budget that his former c/e Torsten Bell had a hand in, but is not critical www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Clive Cowdery tells @bloomberg.com how Resolution Foundation became the UK’s most influential think tank, talks about his remarkable personal journey from care homes to £millions and his “frenemy” Paul Marshall www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
The Rags-to-Riches Capitalist Behind Britain’s Most Influential Think Tank
Clive Cowdery is arguably the most influential non-politician in UK politics today. His proteges at the Resolution Foundation, a think tank he founded 20 years ago, now staff the halls of Westminster ...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Runners and riders to replace Hughes at the OBR. Andy King, Ruth Curtice, Stephen Farrington, Paul Johnson, Sam Beckett, Gemma Tetlow, Rain Newton-Smith www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Here’s Who May Lead the UK Budget Watchdog After Report Blunder
It’s become one of the most sensitive non-political appointments in the UK: Who is going to take over at the Office for Budget Responsibility?
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
New paper cited by BOE ratesetter Swati Dhingra and co-authored by BOE senior economist Philip Bunn puts the Brexit damage at twice the OBR's 4% estimate. And it's been getting worse since the TCA came into force www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Brexit Hit to UK Economy Double Official Estimate, Study Finds
Brexit has caused almost twice as much damage to the UK economy than estimated by official forecasts, according to new paper from a group of experts including a senior Bank of England economist.
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Duncan Robinson @duncanrobinson.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
glad to see this piece from summer on Labour's "all pain, no gain" strategy still works www.economist.com/britain/2025...
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 14/11/2025
Excessive levels of Budget kite-flying risk exacerbating market uncertainty @ruthcurtice.bsky.social responds to latest rumours that the Chancellor is no longer planning to increase Income Tax rates in her upcoming Budget, following rumours last week that this would be the centrepiece of the Budget
At the Budget the Chancellor needs to do 3 things: take decisive steps to improve the public finances &increase the financial buffers against her fiscal rules; address cost of living pressures for families &support the Bank of England in lowering inflation; and in the interest of growth make tax changes that improve the system overall.
There is more than one way to skin this particular cat & we won’t know until we see the whole package whether she has achieved these 3 objectives.
Much depends on the forecasts from the OBR. A significant economic deterioration would leave the Chancellor choosing whether to break the spirit or letter of her manifesto pledge on Income Tax. A more benign economic outlook will make it far easier to avoid breaking it at all. It is normal for economic forecasts &policies to change in the run up to the Budget. It is not normal for so much of that to be laid bare in public. The market moves this morning &in recent weeks suggest a serious look should be taken at
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 14/11/2025
How the bond markets appear to be reading the latest budget u-turn. Labour can’t cut spending (welfare u-turn) Can’t raise major broad based taxes (income tax u-turn) Reeves and Starmer are hostage to the backbenchers. Like the drunken sailors have taken command of the ship
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
There is recent precedent. Last October the OBR added 0.25ppts to its rates forecast to anticipate the inflationary impact of the budget on markets www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 13/11/2025
eeves has asked the OBR to score her plan to lower inflation by tackling regulated prices. It could knock up to £6bn off borrowing costs - fully offsetting the increase since March, Bloomberg Economics work shows, helping to fill the £30bn hole. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Reeves Looks to Woo Budget Watchdog With Plan to Cut Inflation
Rachel Reeves should get billions of pounds of extra room in her upcoming budget, UK Treasury officials believe, thanks to her plan to cut household bills and bring down inflation.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
BoE gov Bailey lending the government a hand. Brexit will be a drag on growth for the “foreseeable future,” he says. Reeves needs growth, Thomas-Symonds is negotiating better trade with the EU, and Bailey helpfully points out the reward on offer. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
There is an OBR growth downgrade coming but she’ll pin that on Tory austerity and Brexit for hammering productivity 7/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Rachel Reeves Hints She’ll Boost UK’s Fiscal Buffer at Budget
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gave the clearest signal yet that she will boost her wafer-thin fiscal buffer at next month’s budget to put the public finances on a more stable footing, a...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
The ambition is to increase the headroom from £9.9bn alongside move to one OBR assessment, to restore policy stability and reassure markets 6/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
She wants to lower inflation via regulated prices, to help bring down borrowing costs which have been the “fastest rising item of gov spending,” she told C4 5/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
Welfare cuts will be found, which could restore some of the government’s lost credibility with markets since the damaging u-turn. The Times reported that £1bn may be saved from Motability benefits 4/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
She looks likely to give business a reprieve from more tax rises in a bid to make the budget “pro-growth” 3/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
She seems reluctant personally to do a bank tax but it remains on the table 2/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 19/10/2025
Reeves gave a series of interviews at the IMF setting out the broad shape of her budget. Key things: tax rises coming, certainly on wealth 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 17/10/2025
Wholesale energy costs aren't the *sole* driver of higher energy bills. For electricity, the largest source of upwards pressure comes from increasing costs of government policies and schemes funded through bills. Read 'Splitting the bill' to learn more 👉 buff.ly/4x4GNAa
Chart showing Proportion of real terms increase in typical household dual fuel energy bill from 2015 to 2025, by component: GB
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Resolution Foundation @resolutionfoundation.org · 19/10/2025
The value of Fuel Duty is now at historic lows, having fallen by 23p per litre (or a third) in real terms over the past decade. It would cost £5 billion *per year* to continue the freeze by the end of the decade. Instead, smaller quarterly increases should be introduced.
Chart showing Nominal main rate of Fuel Duty per litre under different scenarios
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
IMF has urged Reeves to stick with two OBR forecasts a year. But only judge her once. It's not plausible. The Act states the OBR has to do two forecasts and assess her both times. Reeves says she wants one proper forecast. That will require legislation www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/4...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Reeves could end the threat of further tax rises by lifting her £9.9bn buffer this budget, economists say. More margin for error would lower borrowing costs and hand her another boost in what's being called a "virtuous circle." Does mean more tax in Nov tho www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Reeves Faces Mounting Calls to Expand UK’s Fiscal Buffer
Rachel Reeves is coming under pressure to increase the buffer against her fiscal rules at next month’s UK budget, to create what one economist called a “virtuous circle” that quells bond-market uncert...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
The OBR is about to downgrade productivity just as the productivity figures start to pick up, from @tomreesjournalist.bsky.social www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
bloomberg.com
Reeves May Get Budget Lifeline From New UK Productivity Data
The UK is enjoying its fastest productivity growth since the pandemic, according to new research from Pantheon Macroeconomics that relies on tax data instead of the standard labor-market figures.
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 29/09/2025
Reeves has confirmed this, telling Times Radio “The IMF have said that we should move to just one major fiscal event a year and I agree … we do need to change the way that the OBR do their forecasting and two full forecasts a year make it harder to have that one fiscal event.”
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 28/09/2025
Reeves risks a clash with the OBR as she considers scrapping the spring forecast in a bid for greater policy stability www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Phil Aldrick @philaldrick.bsky.social · 25/09/2025
Tallies with IFS finding last year that middle earners are paying less income tax and NICs than at any point in the past 50 years ifs.org.uk/publications...
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