Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 03/10/2026That we are seeing so many atop the K now act with impunity should surprise no one. How did you think those who feel invulnerable in every dimension of their lives would act? 082
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 30/09/2026I've been looking for an suitable analogy. How does this one work? Leaders of the fraternity have a moral obligation to self-regulate the house to ensure the under-age freshmen pledges don't drink. 171
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 29/09/2026"Come with me and you'll see a world of pure imagination..." 060
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 28/09/2026As we approach the midterm elections, I encourage you to ignore political identity and to consider where on The Confidence Quadrant American voters are today. Outside of the top 1%, they're a mix of fearful, frustrated, and desperate. None want the status quo. 020
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 27/09/2026A Sunday morning thought. Each box of the Confidence Map has a distinct feeling which, in turn, drives what we want and do. So, how do you feel today? Whatever journey you're on, it's worth taking a moment to appreciate your current location on the Map. 000
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 24/09/2026FWIW - This is one of the least appreciated aspects of our K-Shaped Economy. 173
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Feelings of uncertainty--> fear Feelings of powerlessness--> frustration Feelings of uncertainty paired with feelings of powerlessness--> despair 060
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Just a reminder that when policymakers act in response to extreme sentiment, it always with a "Me Here Now" intensely tactical mindset. Strategy - let alone future consequences - is the last thing on their minds. 040
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 23/09/2026While all eyes are on gas prices, it's important to appreciate that for those at the bottom, it is in addition to all the other ways they feel powerless and uncertain. FWIW - The cumulative weight of their "Stacked Vulnerabities" is getting mighty heavy. 020
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Our morning garage band name - "The Midterm Candidates" - comes from the headlines. While you may not know the names of the individual band members, you've almost certainly heard the group's latest hit, "Begging For A Diesel Bailout." It's playing everywhere. 000
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 23/09/2026Given current consumer sentiment, I suppose this was inevitable. 052
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 22/09/2026More than anything, what this election season is exposing is the misalignment of interests and priorities among current policymakers of both parties and Main Street. 020
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 22/09/2026We are now six weeks from Election Day and neither major party has offered a resonant and compelling message on voters' number one concern: affordability. For challengers, there may be no better moment to oust incumbents left and right. 020
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 20/09/2026A Sunday morning thought: In decision-making, adjectives trump facts. What makes something safe or affordable or healthy or long-lasting isn't data; it is our beliefs. And there, it is important to remember that our beliefs always mirror our mood. 032
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Circular Incestuous Interdependent Whatever term you choose, money makes the AI world go round... 020
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 17/09/2026FWIW - My latest assessment of sentiment in the footwear space: "Maybe it is just me, but it feels like we have arrived at a point where Wall Street must believe people are going to walk on their hands ahead." 1195
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Something something certainty and control... Or in this case powerlessness and uncertainty. 001
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 13/09/2026A Sunday morning thought: Agency is inward; it is the ability to make the choices we want. Control is outward; it is the ability to generate the outcomes we want. We need to appreciate that there is a difference between feeling empowered and feeling confident. 030
Reposted by Peter AtwaterGeorge Pearkes @peark.es · 04/08/2026lol *BESSENT: 'I GET SICK OF HEARING ABOUT THIS K-SHAPED ECONOMY' 141528
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 04/08/2026FWIW - I was sick and tired of talking about the K-Shaped Economy years ago. Unfortunately, not only have policymakers done nothing to help close the divide, they made it worse and expanded it to more than the economy. 2102
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 04/08/2026FWIW - I'm not sure I've ever seen a moment when policymakers jawboned so many markets at once. 0134
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 26/07/2026"We are leaning on resilience because we live in disquieting times. More than that, though, it’s an inherently pessimistic ideal: an admission that the best we can hope for is to muddle through." Required reading from Shawn Donovan. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...bloomberg.comWe Are Living in an Era of Resilience. That’s Not Good.From the economy to climate change, our growing celebration of resilience says less about our strength than about a world we increasingly expect to be unstable. 074
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 26/07/2026A Sunday morning thought: Moving from the Passenger Seat to the Launch Pad is the hardest move on the Confidence Quadrant. Why? Because it is our choice and, if we fail, it's on us. What we forget is the same is true when we choose to remain in the PS. That's our choice too. 020
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 23/07/2026FWIW - Hugging Face is to AI as Tom Hanks was to COVID. Tipping points don't have to be big. They just have to confirm our worst fears. 2153
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 22/07/2026"When we’re captured by the death spiral of scarcity and dominance, we’re signing up for a journey that’s all about the destination, a destination we’re quite unlikely to reach." seths.blog/2026/07/stat...seths.blogState champsCompared to what? 98% of the time, the state champ loses at nationals. Every billionaire but one isn’t the richest person in the world. Only one of the 300 people who direct a feature film ea… 012
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 19/07/2026The arm of the K has become a slippery slope... 041
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 19/07/2026A Sunday Morning Thought: It is said that you need confidence to succeed. That is not true. Confidence comes from being successful. With that being the case, it is important to remember that success comes not from having confidence but by what we do when we are without it. 140
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 18/07/2026ICYMI - With the passage of time, our always on, 24/7 social media cycle creates a virtual carnival midway, where the only way to be heard is to become a circus barker touting a sixteen-headed lady. www.panoptica.com/peter-atwater/panoptica.comPeter Atwater 020
Reposted by Peter AtwaterPeter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 10/07/2026The challenge with an "Attention Economy" is that, over time, what draws a crowd must become more and more absurd and be delivered with greater and greater stridence. Welcome to the Circus Barker Economy. My latest thoughts: panoptica.com/the-circus-b... 1245
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 10/07/2026Inside companies, AI is creating two groups: Beneficiaries and Victims. As if we needed even more K's in our already K-Shaped Economy... 041
Reposted by Peter AtwaterPaul J Davies @pauljdavies.bsky.social · 10/07/2026Welcome to the K-Shaped company! AI was supposed to flatten organizations. Instead, it's starting to create lordly aristos and underclasses at work - just look at Meta! via @bethkowitt.bsky.social for @opinion.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...bloomberg.comMeta Is Ushering In the Era of the K-Shaped CompanySilicon Valley has long considered itself an egalitarian utopia — a place where rebelling against hierarchy is encouraged and good ideas are supposed to bubble to the top, regardless of who has them. ... 275
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 10/07/2026The challenge with an "Attention Economy" is that, over time, what draws a crowd must become more and more absurd and be delivered with greater and greater stridence. Welcome to the Circus Barker Economy. My latest thoughts: panoptica.com/the-circus-b... 1245
Reposted by Peter AtwaterJesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 09/07/2026'Saylor feel likes the Bear Stearns of this cycle. Moreover, like the collapse of Bear Stearns, Michael Saylor’s demise has the potential to be both the result of falling confidence and a contributor to a further decline.' www.panoptica.com/the-circus-b... by @peteratwater.bsky.socialpanoptica.comThe Circus Barker EconomyPeter Atwater's latest note connects three things most people are watching separately: the collapse of attention-economy figureheads, the escalating absurdity of our information environment, and what ... 0195
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 09/07/2026“Everyone thinks of pawn as the lowest end of the credit spectrum, but I think they are sort of capitalizing on the K-shaped economy.” www.wsj.com/cfo-journal/...wsj.comFrom $200 Loans to $30,000 Birkins, a Pawnshop Chain Serves the K-Shaped EconomyHigher household costs are driving demand for quick cash at Ezcorp’s stores, which also are seeing affluent customers on the hunt for secondhand luxury goods. 021
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 07/07/2026As with all media, the challenge for The Economist is that to remain relevant and resonant its predictions must mirror the trend extrapolation of the crowd. 010
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 04/07/2026As we celebrate America's 250th anniversary, just a reminder that with widely shared feelings of extreme powerless and uncertainty comes revolutionary change. Declarations of independence are the resulting inevitable combination of the first and last of the 5Fs. 171
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 03/07/2026Be especially careful with forecasts. It is all but impossible, even for experts, to forecast what we don't expect. And there it is important to remember that expectations are a far better predictor of the confidence of the provider than the future ahead of us. 021
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 29/06/2026FWIW - Coming out of this cycle, I expect we will see term limits not just for elected officials but for CEOs too. 040
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 21/06/2026A Sunday morning thought. Be careful with your imagination of the future. The future is always unknown. When we are certain about what is coming - both good and bad - we unknowingly reveal far more about own level of confidence far more than anything else. We see as we feel. 041
Reposted by Peter AtwaterJesse Felder @jessefelder.com · 19/06/2026“It is heartbreaking and enraging that Elon Musk can use the system to enrich himself while most people are not being paid fairly and so can’t afford food and healthcare... I do think this brings us closer to profound social upheaval.” www.theguardian.com/science/2026...theguardian.com‘It’s a scam’: Americans express unease over SpaceX’s influence on retirement savingsGuardian readers in the US share concerns about how the SpaceX IPO and AI boom affect their retirement accounts 1219
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 14/06/2026A Sunday morning thought; What others see as uncertainty, the entrepreneur sees as opportunity. Purpose changes our stories. With that our feelings and actions then follow. 120
Peter Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social · 07/06/2026A Sunday morning thought. Few things move us to the Launch Pad like purpose. Whether we're in the Stress Center or the Passenger Seat, purpose pushes us to take control. Moreover, it reframes uncertainty as an opportunity worth striving for. 120