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Paul Bali

@paulbali.com
326 followers 149 following 566 posts

My views only chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com

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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 1h
Beste oplossing is investeren in een TSMC en CATL van eigen bodem esb.nu/rd-in-een-la...
esb.nu
R&D in een land concentreert zich vaker bij één bedrijf - ESB
ASML is goed voor 17 procent van de Nederlandse private R&D-­uitgaven. Dat is zorgwekkend, want een te smalle R&D-basis maakt de economie kwetsbaar voor schommelingen bij enkele bedrijven. Een vergeli...
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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 1h
Modern Egypt’s foreign policy is just one dam thing after another.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 3h
Vanmiddag op Radio Npo 1 over situatie in Frankrijk. Stay tuned
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 3h
They're not wrong, and anyone who believes otherwise is completely divorced from material reality - chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-res...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
China's resources dominance
And why it will take decades to reverse — in the best case scenario
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 11h
The US literally just sent another aircraft carrier to the Gulf. We should be stockpiling, not releasing
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 17h
Europe should not release any kind of reserves. The conditions on energy markets will probably be much worse in 6 months, and we already can't afford to spare any www.ft.com/content/0234...
ft.com
EU countries in crisis talks over release of diesel stocks
Trump administration has pressured European countries to release strategic reserves, warning that it could ban US diesel exports if they do not do so
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Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 19h
From my colleague, Dan Ford, a quick primer on the tangled national and regional politics of the Ethiopian conflict. responsiblestatecraft.org/ethiopian-ci...
responsiblestatecraft.org
Reignited violence in Ethiopia threatens to engulf the entire region
A tangled web of alliances, mixed with intense domestic conflicts in surrounding countries, will make it difficult to contain another civil war.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 20h
Maybe a bit tight in the midfoot but expecting that to wear in
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 20h
Fwiw, these just came in, and despite the box saying 461/3 instead of 46 like I ordered, they fit quite well, and there’s tremendous bounce and stability in the step. Not bad for 70 euros, and you get to say you’ve contributed to global imbalances, so
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 01/10/2026
What if you wanted yields to stop climbing But the martyred Imam Hussein at the Battle of Karbala said
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 01/10/2026
Something tells me these guys aren't just going to give up control over the Strait
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 01/10/2026
The Home Office should really get a subscription to "Chips, Guns, and Money." Cheaper, and we get it right much more of the time. We're also open to bulk orders, say, 60k yearly for 500 accounts
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Tom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Shabana, did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
If his remarks today actually reflect his understanding of Iraqi politics, things are not going well up there
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
This guy was a disaster as PM and he's a disaster as Secgen.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
It's a double strategic blunder: we screwed up energy markets, with all the markets ramifications that entails, and in the end it won't even put us in a better position than before - militarily, diplomatically, or otherwise. People are way too eager to clap for the failed reality tv star's con job
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Rutte claims the Americans "degraded" Iran's nuclear capability, and that the war was "good." Except that most estimates conclude their nuclear program has been set back few months at best, while the more likely result is that they end up realizing only nuclear deterrence will keep aggression at bay
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Iran is going to sit next to Hormuz for the next 1000 years. And their missiles arent going anywhere. The only win Trump could eke out is some kind of implosion of political authority and monopoly on security in Iran itself, but that would probably be even more destabilizing, and also a long way off
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Anyone who genuinely believes the Trump admin has the upper hand here shouldn’t be taken seriously www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Why Is Oil at $100 If Trump Is Winning the Battle in Hormuz?
I don’t know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who’s prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says th...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Expect rate hikes will keep a lid on inflation, but we’re not that far off from this simple linear worst case scenario chart I made back in March chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/everything...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Case in pt - "Several ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran launches fresh strikes" www.tradewindsnews.com/casualties/s...
tradewindsnews.com
Several ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran launches fresh strikes
One LNG and two tankers impacted by ‘unknown projectiles’
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
All over Europe, bridges are literally crumbling, industry is withering, because we're sending all our savings overseas to supply the American equity market with liquidity, instead of investing in our own economies over here
bloomberg.com
London’s Waterloo Bridge at Risk of Shutdown Within Three Years
Britain’s river crossings face growing strain from heavy traffic, extreme weather and funding shortages. Now some of London’s bridges really are falling down.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
America literally owns 70% of the digital infrastructure EU institutions run on, and people wonder why they're afraid to criticize the Trump admin. Dependence isn't just psychological. It's deeply embedded in our physical infrastructure, from diesel to drones and cloud storage nos.nl/artikel/2633...
nos.nl
Leeuwendeel van EU-instellingen laat mail via Amerikaanse servers lopen
De meerderheid van de EU-instellingen gebruikt Amerikaanse maildiensten, ondanks zorgen over spionage en beschikbaarheid.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
They should just follow the Joe Studwell playbook. Forge state capacity and especially coercive apparatus. Focus on labor intensive export-oriented agriculture. Then, through coercive credit policy, reinvest the savings in manufacturing and industry giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Syria’s free-market experiment
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Islamist government has overhauled Assad’s protectionist model and exposed businesses to foreign competition
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
We need to plow $100bn into resources and $100bn into chips. And we need it done yesterday
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
By all means, they should go ahead with it, and show the world how naive the people in Brussels and elsewhere are who believed they could rely on Washington for their own security www.ft.com/content/562f...
ft.com
White House holds crunch talks on diesel export ban as midterms near
Trump at centre of lobbying fight between Big Oil and top Republicans warning of voter anger at high fuel prices
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Also, outflows are probably overstated
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Maybe just cumulative effect on supply conditions after months of constrained flows
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bkmacd @bkmacd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
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Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Dom, as usual, is highly persuasive here. The impact of the Iran shock's second wave seems to have been dulled by evidence of economic resilience and by a change in the expected policy response:
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Important to remember that the gridlock will likely continue for years, while transit conditions could worsen overnight. Calls that freedom of navigation has been restored are premature www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/b...
nytimes.com
Mideast Oil Exports Rebound Even as Prices Remain Elevated
More tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz as shippers gain confidence, but the global supply of oil is still below demand.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
With the scale of the entire European Union, and a centralized industrial and credit policy, we could actually become a superpower-level player www.thenewworld.co.uk/paul-bali-tr...
thenewworld.co.uk
Trump has shown Europe that it needs a stronger union
Only more centralisation can save the EU from fragmentation, irrelevance - and China
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Netherlands has a better track record but still probably lacks the scale - financially and otherwise - to start doing actually meaningful strategic industrial policy, like building chip fabs, cathode plants, etc.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Merz bungled the rollout of his own investment program last year, with fiscal resource raised through special purpose debt going to welfare and pensions instead of infrastructure investment. And macro gains from current rise have been modest so far. That's a pretty questionable track record
ifo.de
The Misappropriation of Special-Purpose Debt for Infrastructure and Climate Protection Must Be Stopped! | ifo Institute
A year ago, the Bundestag decided to establish a special fund for infrastructure and climate protection and to authorize EUR 500 billion in additional debt for this purpose. Now is the time for an ini...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Switching spending to investment makes sense, and comes at a vital moment, but it's probably better to just give Brussels a clear, defined mandate to start doing high tech industrial policy in eg, chipmaking, battery sector, etc www.ft.com/content/3b82...
ft.com
Germany issues EU budget ultimatum
Berlin and five other capitals tell Brussels to axe ‘hundreds of billions’ in planned spending
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
How long are they going to continue this shtick www.ft.com/content/c768...
ft.com
Anthropic warns of ‘existential risks to humanity’ in IPO prospectus
Long-awaited S-1 filing reports Claude maker lost $8bn last year on $4.6bn in revenue
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/no-ai-is-n...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma
While transformative in certain respects, artificial intelligence isn’t about to unleash a biotech revolution
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Lol
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Nergens excuses voor nodig nos.nl/artikel/2632...
nos.nl
Jetten heeft spijt van 'op de bek slaan': 'Had me netter moeten uitdrukken'
De uitspraken van gisteren op het D66-congres noemt hij nu een 'slip of the tongue'.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
'De [Nederlandse] overheid discrimineert soms zelf' Soms? www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...
nrc.nl
Roma, Sinti en woonwagenbewoners discrimineren is ‘haast genormaliseerd’ zegt de Nationale Ombudsman
Discriminatie: In onderzoeken is „keer op keer” vastgesteld dat Roma, Sinti en woonwagenbewoners worden gediscrimineerd en dat duurt té lang, vindt de Nationale Ombudsman. Toch doet de overheid weinig...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Pope taking shots at Ukraine hawks www.reuters.com/world/pope-l...
reuters.com
Pope Leo urges concessions for peace as Ukraine war drags on
Pope Leo said on Monday that ​negotiators seeking to end war in Europe must be willing to sacrifice some positions to achieve peace, as efforts to ‌end Russia's bloody war in Ukraine continue to fail.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Have to disagree with the ASML CEO here. Also casts doubt on his AI thesis www.ft.com/content/bc03...
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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 28/09/2026
Marijn Bolhuis, Jakree Koosakul, Neil Shenai, & Jie Yang analyse the role of financial repression in the reduction of debt burdens in advanced economies. It has been a persistent feature of modern policymaking, playing an important role post-WWII and rising again since 2008. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Figure shows a time series of the use of fiscal repression. Measures are normalised relative to the minimum value for each country. Solid lines denote the mean across countries and dashed lines the 25th and 75th percentiles.

With public debt at high peacetime levels, how advanced economies can reduce debt burdens is again at the centre of policy debate. This column examines the role of financial repression, perhaps the least studied channel, by applying new quantity-based measures to more than a century of data for 17 advanced economies. The findings show that repression has been a persistent feature of modern policymaking, playing an important role in post-World War II debt reduction and rising again since the Global Financial Crisis. With several of the conditions historically associated with repression present today, its use may increase going forward.
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Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
'Where a typical industrial product might have a few dozen suppliers, an ASML EUV has more than 100,000 parts provided by 200 principal suppliers and 2,000 companies overall." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Industrial strategy so much harder than monetary policy, Exhibit LXIB
giftarticle.ft.com
ASML chief: ‘There is only one company making those machines’
Christophe Fouquet has built Europe’s biggest business through a total monopoly over the most advanced chipmaking equipment
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Now including historical data on firewood consumption*
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Europe needs more energy realism chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/europe-nee...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
Europe needs more energy realism
To power the green transition, we paradoxically need more fossil fuels
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Difficult to believe that the Iran war wasnt in part intended to knock out competitors & make the world more dependent on US hydrocarbon exports www.wsj.com/articles/kim...
wsj.com
The Mystery Man Shadowing Kimberly Guilfoyle as She Pushes Deals Across Europe
Christos Marafatsos works as an energy lobbyist while also closely advising the U.S. ambassador to Greece.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/no-ai-is-n...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma
While transformative in certain respects, artificial intelligence isn’t about to unleash a biotech revolution
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Het probleem met de NII is dat het wss om kleinere leningen gaat van 1-10 miljoen, misschien tot de 100-300 miljoen, aan ondernemers die wss ook weinig kans maken op serieuze groei, en meer gewoon geld krijgen omdat ze een Constantijn van Oranje kennen. Zie je nu ook al met NGF fd.nl/opinie/16129...
fd.nl
De lancering van een Nationale Investeringsinstelling lost een niet-bestaand probleem op
Om Nederlandse start- en scale-ups een groei-injectie te geven, lanceert het kabinet een investeringsinstelling die extra privaat geld mobiliseert. Maar de bedrijven in kwestie lijken geen behoefte te...
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