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Paul Bali

@paulbali.com
326 followers 149 following 563 posts

My views only chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com

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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 1h
The US literally just sent another aircraft carrier to the Gulf. We should be stockpiling, not releasing
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 7h
Europe should not release any kind of reserves. The conditions on energy markets will probably be much worse in 6 months, and we already can't afford to spare any www.ft.com/content/0234...
ft.com
EU countries in crisis talks over release of diesel stocks
Trump administration has pressured European countries to release strategic reserves, warning that it could ban US diesel exports if they do not do so
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Reposted by Paul Bali
Karthik Sankaran @rajakorman.bsky.social · 9h
From my colleague, Dan Ford, a quick primer on the tangled national and regional politics of the Ethiopian conflict. responsiblestatecraft.org/ethiopian-ci...
responsiblestatecraft.org
Reignited violence in Ethiopia threatens to engulf the entire region
A tangled web of alliances, mixed with intense domestic conflicts in surrounding countries, will make it difficult to contain another civil war.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 10h
Fwiw, these just came in, and despite the box saying 461/3 instead of 46 like I ordered, they fit quite well, and there’s tremendous bounce and stability in the step. Not bad for 70 euros, and you get to say you’ve contributed to global imbalances, so
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 16h
What if you wanted yields to stop climbing But the martyred Imam Hussein at the Battle of Karbala said
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 19h
Something tells me these guys aren't just going to give up control over the Strait
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 19h
The Home Office should really get a subscription to "Chips, Guns, and Money." Cheaper, and we get it right much more of the time. We're also open to bulk orders, say, 60k yearly for 500 accounts
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Reposted by Paul Bali
Tom Roberts @tpgroberts.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Shabana, did you know Indonesia is at a crossroads?
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
If his remarks today actually reflect his understanding of Iraqi politics, things are not going well up there
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
This guy was a disaster as PM and he's a disaster as Secgen.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Rutte claims the Americans "degraded" Iran's nuclear capability, and that the war was "good." Except that most estimates conclude their nuclear program has been set back few months at best, while the more likely result is that they end up realizing only nuclear deterrence will keep aggression at bay
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Anyone who genuinely believes the Trump admin has the upper hand here shouldn’t be taken seriously www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...
bloomberg.com
Why Is Oil at $100 If Trump Is Winning the Battle in Hormuz?
I don’t know who will win the US-Iran war. But if you ask me who’s prevailing in the battle over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s clear US President Donald Trump has the advantage. As much as Tehran says th...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Expect rate hikes will keep a lid on inflation, but we’re not that far off from this simple linear worst case scenario chart I made back in March chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/everything...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Case in pt - "Several ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran launches fresh strikes" www.tradewindsnews.com/casualties/s...
tradewindsnews.com
Several ships attacked in Strait of Hormuz as Iran launches fresh strikes
One LNG and two tankers impacted by ‘unknown projectiles’
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
America literally owns 70% of the digital infrastructure EU institutions run on, and people wonder why they're afraid to criticize the Trump admin. Dependence isn't just psychological. It's deeply embedded in our physical infrastructure, from diesel to drones and cloud storage nos.nl/artikel/2633...
nos.nl
Leeuwendeel van EU-instellingen laat mail via Amerikaanse servers lopen
De meerderheid van de EU-instellingen gebruikt Amerikaanse maildiensten, ondanks zorgen over spionage en beschikbaarheid.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
They should just follow the Joe Studwell playbook. Forge state capacity and especially coercive apparatus. Focus on labor intensive export-oriented agriculture. Then, through coercive credit policy, reinvest the savings in manufacturing and industry giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
Syria’s free-market experiment
Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Islamist government has overhauled Assad’s protectionist model and exposed businesses to foreign competition
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
By all means, they should go ahead with it, and show the world how naive the people in Brussels and elsewhere are who believed they could rely on Washington for their own security www.ft.com/content/562f...
ft.com
White House holds crunch talks on diesel export ban as midterms near
Trump at centre of lobbying fight between Big Oil and top Republicans warning of voter anger at high fuel prices
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Reposted by Paul Bali
bkmacd @bkmacd.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
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Reposted by Paul Bali
Karl Schamotta @karl-schamotta.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Dom, as usual, is highly persuasive here. The impact of the Iran shock's second wave seems to have been dulled by evidence of economic resilience and by a change in the expected policy response:
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Important to remember that the gridlock will likely continue for years, while transit conditions could worsen overnight. Calls that freedom of navigation has been restored are premature www.nytimes.com/2026/09/29/b...
nytimes.com
Mideast Oil Exports Rebound Even as Prices Remain Elevated
More tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz as shippers gain confidence, but the global supply of oil is still below demand.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
Switching spending to investment makes sense, and comes at a vital moment, but it's probably better to just give Brussels a clear, defined mandate to start doing high tech industrial policy in eg, chipmaking, battery sector, etc www.ft.com/content/3b82...
ft.com
Germany issues EU budget ultimatum
Berlin and five other capitals tell Brussels to axe ‘hundreds of billions’ in planned spending
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 29/09/2026
How long are they going to continue this shtick www.ft.com/content/c768...
ft.com
Anthropic warns of ‘existential risks to humanity’ in IPO prospectus
Long-awaited S-1 filing reports Claude maker lost $8bn last year on $4.6bn in revenue
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Reposted by Paul Bali
Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/no-ai-is-n...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma
While transformative in certain respects, artificial intelligence isn’t about to unleash a biotech revolution
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Lol
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Nergens excuses voor nodig nos.nl/artikel/2632...
nos.nl
Jetten heeft spijt van 'op de bek slaan': 'Had me netter moeten uitdrukken'
De uitspraken van gisteren op het D66-congres noemt hij nu een 'slip of the tongue'.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
'De [Nederlandse] overheid discrimineert soms zelf' Soms? www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2026/...
nrc.nl
Roma, Sinti en woonwagenbewoners discrimineren is ‘haast genormaliseerd’ zegt de Nationale Ombudsman
Discriminatie: In onderzoeken is „keer op keer” vastgesteld dat Roma, Sinti en woonwagenbewoners worden gediscrimineerd en dat duurt té lang, vindt de Nationale Ombudsman. Toch doet de overheid weinig...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Pope taking shots at Ukraine hawks www.reuters.com/world/pope-l...
reuters.com
Pope Leo urges concessions for peace as Ukraine war drags on
Pope Leo said on Monday that ​negotiators seeking to end war in Europe must be willing to sacrifice some positions to achieve peace, as efforts to ‌end Russia's bloody war in Ukraine continue to fail.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Have to disagree with the ASML CEO here. Also casts doubt on his AI thesis www.ft.com/content/bc03...
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Reposted by Paul Bali
VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 28/09/2026
Marijn Bolhuis, Jakree Koosakul, Neil Shenai, & Jie Yang analyse the role of financial repression in the reduction of debt burdens in advanced economies. It has been a persistent feature of modern policymaking, playing an important role post-WWII and rising again since 2008. cepr.org/voxeu/column...
Figure shows a time series of the use of fiscal repression. Measures are normalised relative to the minimum value for each country. Solid lines denote the mean across countries and dashed lines the 25th and 75th percentiles.

With public debt at high peacetime levels, how advanced economies can reduce debt burdens is again at the centre of policy debate. This column examines the role of financial repression, perhaps the least studied channel, by applying new quantity-based measures to more than a century of data for 17 advanced economies. The findings show that repression has been a persistent feature of modern policymaking, playing an important role in post-World War II debt reduction and rising again since the Global Financial Crisis. With several of the conditions historically associated with repression present today, its use may increase going forward.
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Reposted by Paul Bali
Giles Wilkes @gilesyb.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
'Where a typical industrial product might have a few dozen suppliers, an ASML EUV has more than 100,000 parts provided by 200 principal suppliers and 2,000 companies overall." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Industrial strategy so much harder than monetary policy, Exhibit LXIB
giftarticle.ft.com
ASML chief: ‘There is only one company making those machines’
Christophe Fouquet has built Europe’s biggest business through a total monopoly over the most advanced chipmaking equipment
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Europe needs more energy realism chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/europe-nee...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
Europe needs more energy realism
To power the green transition, we paradoxically need more fossil fuels
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Difficult to believe that the Iran war wasnt in part intended to knock out competitors & make the world more dependent on US hydrocarbon exports www.wsj.com/articles/kim...
wsj.com
The Mystery Man Shadowing Kimberly Guilfoyle as She Pushes Deals Across Europe
Christos Marafatsos works as an energy lobbyist while also closely advising the U.S. ambassador to Greece.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/no-ai-is-n...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma
While transformative in certain respects, artificial intelligence isn’t about to unleash a biotech revolution
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Het probleem met de NII is dat het wss om kleinere leningen gaat van 1-10 miljoen, misschien tot de 100-300 miljoen, aan ondernemers die wss ook weinig kans maken op serieuze groei, en meer gewoon geld krijgen omdat ze een Constantijn van Oranje kennen. Zie je nu ook al met NGF fd.nl/opinie/16129...
fd.nl
De lancering van een Nationale Investeringsinstelling lost een niet-bestaand probleem op
Om Nederlandse start- en scale-ups een groei-injectie te geven, lanceert het kabinet een investeringsinstelling die extra privaat geld mobiliseert. Maar de bedrijven in kwestie lijken geen behoefte te...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/09/2026
Dit lijkt dus op consumptieve uitgaven, en dan nb een handout aan vermogenden, bekostigen door te lenen www.nu.nl/politiek/641...
nu.nl
Kabinet wil niet korten op sociale zekerheid, schuift voor box 3 naar rechts
Het kabinet is van plan af te zien van de geplande bezuinigingen op de sociale zekerheid. Daarmee reikt het een hand naar linkse partijen. Rond het box 3-dossier wil het kabinet juist naar 'rechts', b...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 26/09/2026
Hate to be a bummer about The Sopranos, but I once took a course on organized crime by one of the world's leading experts on the topic, and according to him the premise of a boss going to a psychiatrist would never, ever happen in real life
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 25/09/2026
A very distant pope
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 25/09/2026
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/no-ai-is-n...
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com
No, AI is not about to revolutionize biopharma
Here’s why artificial intelligence isn’t about to transform the pharmaceutical market
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 25/09/2026
I guess Pope Leo is driving through my neighborhood today
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
This is alarmist nonsense. If an attack were around the corner, we'd first see massive increase of industrial activity, troop recruitment, etc. Would take months to build up an army that could even eg take the baltics. While a Russian attack should't be excluded, it's certainly not around the corner
ft.com
Russia could attack Nato country within months, Denmark warns
Intelligence service cites ‘low but growing risk’ of troop movement into neighbouring country or assault on infrastructure
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
Melenchon would easily make it to the second round if current polling trend holds. And the worst of the economic instability - which is probably a big reason behind the surge - still remains in front of us www.leparisien.fr/elections/pr...
leparisien.fr
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
This bears repeating again. But Iraqi oil production took 10 years to recover to pre-war level. And back then there was still the shale boom and Russian production growth (also, rapid CN export growth) that dampened inflation. None of that this time around alas
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
After losing Russian hydrocarbon exports, it sure was foolish to support the war against Iran. But Europe's strategic experts managed it anyway
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
Decided to check out the hype around Chinese running shoes for myself. Will report back
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
Meta's made quite the comeback www.ft.com/content/f477...
ft.com
Mark Zuckerberg unveils AI ‘charm’ device that can fit on a keychain
Social media chief says the Muse personal assistant is the ‘centrepiece’ of his AI vision after launch success
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 23/09/2026
This is so crazy. 400 at the start of the year
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 23/09/2026
This is pretty cool www.anthropic.com/news/claude-...
anthropic.com
Claude discovers a novel enzyme system with CRISPR-like repeats
Anthropic is an AI safety and research company that's working to build reliable, interpretable, and steerable AI systems.
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 23/09/2026
Criminaliteit neemt toe als er geen staat met monopolie op veiligheid meer is, shocker nos.nl/artikel/2632...
nos.nl
VN ziet 'ernstige toename' van gedwongen huwelijken in Gaza, ook kinderen slachtoffers
In het rapport vertellen zes vrouwen uit vluchtelingenkampen over meisjes die door hun vaders werden uitgehuwelijkt in ruil voor een zak meel.
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Reposted by Paul Bali
Mediapart @mediapart.fr · 23/09/2026
Le sénateur Laurent Duplomb soupçonné de détournement de fonds publics Par @mediacites.fr
l.mediapart.fr
Le sénateur Laurent Duplomb soupçonné de détournement de fonds publics
En mai 2025, « Mediacités » révélait qu’une collaboratrice parlementaire du sénateur de Haute-Loire Laurent Duplomb avait incité de nombreux élus locaux à adhérer au parti Les Républicains pour soutenir l’élection, en interne, de Laurent Wauquiez. Le parquet de Clermont-Ferrand a depuis ouvert une enquête préliminaire.
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