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Paul Bali

@paulbali.com
326 followers 147 following 591 posts

My views only chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com

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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 03/10/2026
Though I don't actually believe a full-scale trade war is on the table, since Europe's ambitions in clean energy, rearmament, etc rely on a rather large supply of Chinese processed commodities and other bulk inputs - from plain old magnesium to battery anodes and fluorspar - flowing 24/7
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 03/10/2026
"State Power Attracts Talent: Evidence From China’s Civil Servant Fever" journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 02/10/2026
Dat je als kind van vluchtelingen de landelijke politiek ingaat voor een partij die rechtsextremistische anti-vluchtelingenhaat verspreidt is een teken van een extreem laag karakter, nog slijmeriger en laffer dan gemiddeld in Den Haag - en dat is echt een prestatie
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 01/10/2026
Maybe a bit tight in the midfoot but expecting that to wear in
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 01/10/2026
Fwiw, these just came in, and despite the box saying 461/3 instead of 46 like I ordered, they fit quite well, and there’s tremendous bounce and stability in the step. Not bad for 70 euros, and you get to say you’ve contributed to global imbalances, so
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 01/10/2026
Something tells me these guys aren't just going to give up control over the Strait
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 30/09/2026
Expect rate hikes will keep a lid on inflation, but we’re not that far off from this simple linear worst case scenario chart I made back in March chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/everything...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/09/2026
Have to disagree with the ASML CEO here. Also casts doubt on his AI thesis www.ft.com/content/bc03...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 25/09/2026
A very distant pope
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 25/09/2026
I guess Pope Leo is driving through my neighborhood today
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/09/2026
Decided to check out the hype around Chinese running shoes for myself. Will report back
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 23/09/2026
This is so crazy. 400 at the start of the year
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 18/09/2026
And let's not pretend the decision to hold off with refilling was part of some grand strategic plan. In the NL there was a cabinet party leader going around telling journalists that waiting was fine because the even gas futures curve could be seen as a sign that the conflict would end before winter
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 18/09/2026
Gingko was supposed to revolutionize and massively speed up the R&D cycle using AI, but I think their 5y equity performance tells you how well that's going (no offense)
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 18/09/2026
These are the same people who at the beginning of the summer (iirc) claimed the conflict would be resolved because it would otherwise be too damaging to the global economy, which would push the two parties to make a deal, so I wouldn't take this too seriously
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 15/09/2026
Hier gaan we er dus niet mee komen
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 14/09/2026
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 11/09/2026
Can now officially recommend Bestofu near Belleville for their selection of traditional Chinese countryside staples. €4 for douhua and a bao!
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 11/09/2026
Some big furry account reposted my rant about eu gas storage and now my feed is just all furries
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 11/09/2026
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/why-ukrain...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 10/09/2026
Los van dit, als je Lena Schilling opzoekt op Wikipedia zie je deze controverse uit 2024. Het lijkt me dat Eickhout zich hier als fractieleider van tevoren ook gewoon bewust van was, dus je moet je afvragen hoe dom en thirsty hij echt was dat ie dit wist en het alsnog deed esb.nu/europese-der...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 10/09/2026
It's totally right to blame this administration for getting entangled in Iran. But a great deal of blame also lies with the hyper-nationalist domestic media environment that would punish, rather than reward, doing what's needed to sign a deal chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/why-the-ir...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 09/09/2026
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/on-the-fix...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 07/09/2026
There's life before you start using an air purifier and eating the recommended amount of daily fiber, and there's life after it
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 06/09/2026
Dit is het niveau dat in Nederland doorgaat voor een populaire econoom die op nationale televisie wordt uitgenodigd om beleidsvoorstellen te analyseren, in debat te treden met bewindspersonen, internationale crises uit te leggen, etc
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 05/09/2026
More #life posting
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 05/09/2026
Some bops from last night
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 28/08/2026
French leaders of yore would've known how to settle France's debts
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/08/2026
But not my faithful subscribers chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/why-ukrain...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 20/08/2026
chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-res...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 12/08/2026
“One quick peek wont hurt”
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 12/08/2026
Some crescents visible here
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/07/2026
Last week I visited the Woudagemaal, one of the last bastions of classic Dutch industry. The Woudagemaal basically pumps water from Frysland into the Ijsselmeer, helping keep water levels on target (and our feet dry). The Rhine’s low water level was duly commented upon during the tour…
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/07/2026
People are talking about the new album but keith richards older stuff is actually also worth checking out
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/07/2026
You heard it here first, folks open.substack.com/pub/chipsgun...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 25/07/2026
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 14/07/2026
No invalides event today. But at least the fireworks were pretty decent
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 10/07/2026
@bodegacats.bsky.social
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 10/07/2026
Why hasnt this happened yet? This seems like the most exciting frontier in behavioral economics rn
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 08/07/2026
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 07/07/2026
If you look at China the most competitive auto manufacturers werent the result of a project where the govt simply went "okay now you have to become competitive." They came forth from a bottom-up consensus in a fiercely nationalistic society that wanted to catch up with the West out of national pride
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 27/06/2026
Interesting addition found on twitter
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 24/06/2026
Arguments aside, isn't this usually called the upstream
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 12/06/2026
They just let anyone say anything in the FT
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 10/06/2026
Alluded to some of the flaws in the thinking of the pro-trade war camp here chipsgunsandmoney.substack.com/p/chinas-res...
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 08/06/2026
Drinking tea and playing board games isn't how you win wars
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 07/06/2026
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 07/06/2026
tl;dr
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 06/06/2026
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Paul Bali @paulbali.com · 04/06/2026
The origins of state capacity and economic competitiveness are... complicated
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