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Pablo Geraldo Bastías

@pablogerbas.bsky.social
1.6K followers 981 following 16 posts

Postdoctoral Prize Research Fellow in Sociology at Nuffield College, University of Oxford 🇨🇱 —> 🇺🇸 —> 🇬🇧 Social Science | Causal Inference | Education | Inequality | CompSoc | Complexity | Everything else

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Pablo Geraldo Bastías @pablogerbas.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Day 1 Foundations of causal inference
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Tobias Rüttenauer @ruettenauer.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
🎄 Still looking for a gift for your favourite social scientist? How about a #preprint with 717 urban areas, 30 countries, and 16,164 models of #Immigrant #Segregation across Europe? Just published with @kasimirdederichs.bsky.social & David Kretschmer 🎅 🎁 Wrapped up here: arxiv.org/abs/2512.17037
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Ben Williamson @benpatrickwill.bsky.social · 19/12/2025
Closing out my year with a journal editor shocker 🧵 Checking new manuscripts today I reviewed a paper attributing 2 papers to me I did not write. A daft thing for an author to do of course. But intrigued I web searched up one of the titles and that's when it got real weird...
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The Institute for Analytical Sociology @iasliu.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
Since the first International Workshop on Analytical Sociology in 2008, INAS is returning to Oxford. The 18th Annual INAS Conference will take place from 1 to 3 July 2026 at the University of Oxford, hosted by Nuffield College and the Department of Sociology. Submission deadline: 1 Feb 2026
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
INAS Conference 2026 - Nuffield College Oxford University
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Pablo Geraldo Bastías @pablogerbas.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Are we going through the dispute of positivism once again? 😳
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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 03/11/2025
How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers? New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Coercion and Monopsony in Modern American Manufacturing: Evidence from Alabama Prison Labor
Susan Helper Suresh Naidu Akseli Palomaki Adam Reich
Aaron Sojourner

We study coercion and monopsony in contemporary U.S. manufacturing labor markets. We combine administrative data from the Alabama Department of Corrections work release program with a unique survey of workers in the Alabama auto supply chain
where workers report their work-release status. We first present descriptive patterns of work-release labor, finding that the use of incarcerated (i.e., work-release) labor is concentrated in the auto supply industry, especially in the Montgomery area, where
Hyundai’s assembly plant is located. In the survey, the share of plant-level workers who are incarcerated is negatively correlated with non-incarcerated wages. The survey also enables estimation of hypothetical quit elasticities separately among incarcerated
and non-incarcerated workers. Incarcerated workers are estimated to have quit elasticities less than half that of non-incarcerated workers. Because Alabama law requires employers to pay the same wage to incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers in the same jobs, the additional monopsony power introduced by employer access to incarcerated workers creates an incentive and ability for employers to reduce plant-level wages to, and employment of, non-incarcerated workers. We build a quantitative model of firm-specific labor supply that, for incarcerated workers, distinguishes the roles of coercion (the risk of physical harm in prison from not working), wage garnishment that blunts the consumption effect of higher wages, and monopsony (limited mobility across employers). Using it, we estimate effects on free and incarcerated workers’ welfare from i) reforming prison conditions to eliminate violence, ii) eliminating prison labor wage
garnishment, iii) imposing a $15 minimum wage, &iv) abolishing prison labor. Free worker welfare goes up in all scenarios...
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Anica Waldendorf @awaldendorf.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
Excited to announce the launch of a new working group at Nuffield College, the Generative² Social Science Lab (co-organised with @pablogerbas.bsky.social). We will have our first meeting tomorrow at 11:00am, come join us! More details here: github.com/gen2socscila...
github.com
Home
The Generative² Social Science Lab is a collaborative research forum based at Nuffield College, University of Oxford. - gen2socscilab/Generative2-Social-Science-Lab
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Jacquelyn Gill @jacquelyngill.bsky.social · 06/10/2025
Our submission to Journal of Vegetation Science for a special issue has been sitting for six months with zero reviewers, after JVS switched to this system. I just resigned as an editor of Global Ecology & Biogeography today (after 7 years) because I can no longer do my job effectively.
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Christiaan Monden @cmonden.bsky.social · 20/08/2025
Job alert! Join us at @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social as a postdoctoral fellow to work on your own research for three years. #sociology
nuffield.ox.ac.uk
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Roberto Velázquez-Quiroz @rovelazq.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
Great work by @pablogerbas.bsky.social! Loved the clear, causal lens on educational mobility — such a productive framework. The insights on Chile’s 2015 tuition-free policy were especially compelling. Thanks @mebucca.bsky.social @andreacanales.bsky.social @taniahutt.bsky.social for the workshop!
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Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 12/07/2025
`tinyplot` v0.4.2 is now available on CRAN + R-universe 🎉 Mostly bug fixes, but includes some important integration improvements for Positron IDE users. Release notes: grantmcdermott.com/tinyplot/NEW... #rstats
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 09/07/2025
How can we reform science? I have some ideas. But I am not sure you’ll like them, because they don’t promise much. elevanth.org/blog/2025/07...
elevanth.org
Which Kind of Science Reform
What hope is there for science reform, if we can't agree on what to reform? Right now, principles are more important than practices.
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Ian Hussey @ianhussey.mmmdata.io · 05/07/2025
I am often told that public critique of published articles must also solve the issues found. I think this frequently enforced requirement hinders scientific self-correction. Blog post: mmmdata.io/posts/2025/0...
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Charlie Rahal @crahal.com · 10/06/2025
🔥Coming July 2: 'Metrics and Models'!🔥 A new seminar series on advanced modelling w/ impact across health/society. 🌍 Open to *ALL*! 🕑 Weds 2pm UK alternating weeks (online) 🔗 metrics-and-models.github.io 📬 metrics_and_models-subscribe@maillist.ox.ac.uk Brilliant speakers. *Please share*!
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Mark Williams @mrfw17thc.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
There's no doubt that editors for academic publishing need more help and support to keep things going. But my god, this isn't it. I've published in a number of OUP outlets. This would force me to reconsider. I suspect other #SkyStorians will, too.
alpsp.org
Oxford University Press and Hum sign agreement to pilot Alchemist Review
Oxford University Press partners with Hum to pilot Alchemist Review, an AI-based editorial assistant that will enhance manuscript assessment while reducing a...
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Bryan Wilder @brwilder.bsky.social · 26/05/2025
Should LLMs be used to review papers? AAAI is piloting LLM-generated reviews this year. I wrote a blog post arguing that using LLMs as reviewers can have bad downstream consequences for science by centralizing judgments about what constitutes good research. bryanwilder.github.io/files/llmrev...
bryanwilder.github.io
Equilibrium effects of LLM reviewing
Equilibrium effects of LLM reviewing
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Johanna Rickne @johannarickne.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
🚨 REPLICATION REPORT UPDATE: One year ago, a tweet by John Holbein alerted me, @ollefolke.bsky.social, and @jopieboy.bsky.social to a paper with a shocking result about Sweden’s law criminalizing the purchase of sex.🧵
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 09/05/2025
Folks, always share your code. It doesn’t have to be perfect to be helpful. And if you feel that it’s still too messy or not sufficiently clean to be shared, you shouldn’t submit yet. After all, there could be mistakes in your mess.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 19/05/2025
Also, *please* don’t compare this to the climate change (denial) discourse. I’m strongly opposed against such rhetorical moves that try to cash in on the hard-earned trust that *other* scientific fields have built up.
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Jana Lasser @janalasser.eurosky.social · 29/01/2025
Update: the application deadline for this position has been extended until Feb. 12!
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Kelsey Atherton @atherton.bsky.social · 26/01/2025
GEORGE LUCAS IN 1999: a trade embargo is going to spark the galactic reckoning and collapse ME IN 2025: ah, okay
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European Sociological Review @europeansocreview.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
We are delighted to announce a call for papers for a forthcoming special issue on ESR @europeansocreview.bsky.social Education and Social Mobility: Celebrating Richard Breen’s Contribution to Sociology Deadline for submission: 15 of June 2025 More details on the call 👇
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Santa Fe Institute @sfiscience.bsky.social · 22/01/2025
SFI is a research hub, home to between 20 and 50 resident and visiting researchers at any given time. SFI is currently seeking applications for full-time resident faculty. These 5+year appointments offer broad intellectual freedom and encouragement to take risks. 1/2
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Oxford Summer School in Economic Networks @oxfordeconnet.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
We’re thrilled to announce that this year’s keynote speaker is Prof. Aaron Clauset, from CU Boulder. He is one of the world's foremost experts in Network Science and Complex Systems Apply by 3 March www.maths.ox.ac.uk/events/summe... @aaronclauset.bsky.social @colorado.edu
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DemoSoc UPF @demosocupf.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
We are hiring!! (2 positions) TT Assistant Professor position in #Demography and Population Health. DEADLINE 02/02/25 Please share www.upf.edu/web/politiqu... #sociology
upf.edu
NEXT CALL: Tenure Track Assistant Professor position in Demography and Population Health (REF. POL-TTPT-2025-01)
NEXT CALL: Tenure Track Assistant Professor position in Demography and Population Health (REF. POL-TTPT-2025-01) 12.12.2024 RRSS WhatsApp RRSS Facebook RRSS Twitter RRSS email Copiar URL The...
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Nick Huntington-Klein @nickchk.com · 17/12/2024
New working paper out today with @epiellie.bsky.social called "Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?" Can LLMs (ie ChatGPT) build for us the causal models we need to identify an effect? There are reasons to expect they could. But can they? Well, not really, no. arxiv.org/html/2412.10...
arxiv.org
Do LLMs Act as Repositories of Causal Knowledge?
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Jennie Brand @jenniebrand.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Announcing the ISA RC28 2025 Summer Meeting at UCLA! Conference theme: “Social Inequality and Labor Market Restructuring;” Keynotes by Michael Hout and Xi Song Conference dates: August 4-7, 2025 Abstracts due: February 17, 2025 See you in L.A.!
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Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
`etwfe` v0.5.0 is now available on CRAN (and R-universe). grantmcdermott.com/etwfe/ As a reminder, `etwfe` makes it easy to estimate Extended TwoWay Fixed Effects a la @jmwooldridge.bsky.social. Super flexible and good for nonlinear models, recovering heterogeneous TEs, etc. #econsky #rstats 1/3
grantmcdermott.com
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Emily Riederer @emilyriederer.bsky.social · 01/12/2024
Imagine finding out @vincentab.bsky.social @noahgreifer.bsky.social and @andrew.heiss.phd wrote a thing and it's open access 👀 Awesome paper about {marginaleffects} R/python packages in JOSS (which needs to join Bsky) www.jstatsoft.org/article/view...
jstatsoft.org
How to Interpret Statistical Models Using marginaleffects for R and Python by Vincent Arel-Bundock, Noah Greifer, Andrew Heiss
<p>The parameters of a statistical model can sometimes be difficult to interpret substantively, especially when that model includes nonlinear components, interactions, or transformations. Analysts who...
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Sociology at Oxford @sociologyoxford.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
🚨 We're hiring! 🚨 Join us as an Associate Professor in Social Demography, in association with @stjohnsox.bsky.social. We're open to a range of specialisations: family, fertility, gender, migration, population health, inequalities & more 🌍 Apply now ➡️ www.sociology.ox.ac.uk/article/asso...
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Peter Hull @instrumenthull.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Contamination Bias in Linear Regressions -- out today in the AER! www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/x4bc1...
dropbox.com
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Maren Toft @marentoft.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Excited to present my ongoing book project at Nuffield college on Wednesday. Very grateful to @cmonden.bsky.social for the invitation. Hope to see some friendly faces if anyone is in Oxford this week www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-events/...
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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
And @guilhermeduarte.bsky.social's causal inference one too go.bsky.app/FdemGAZ
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 15/11/2024
I'm trying to compete with @stephenjwild.bsky.social's DAG People starter pack, because economists believe in competition Open to suggestions! go.bsky.app/Fa2XSDH
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
Theorist bridge trolls barking at you to formally connect theory to data? Wondering how, without troll magic? We can help! "Bridging theory and data: A computational workflow for cultural evolution" With @dominikdeffner.bsky.social @natyfedorova.bsky.social Jeff Andrews. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Illustration of a computational workflow for cultural evolution that connects abstract theory to real-world data. The arrows indicate logical and computational dependencies among theoretical, statistical, and scientific elements of a project. For example, an effective inferential model depends upon generative models, a question about those models (estimand), and the structure of the available evidence (sample).
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Pablo Geraldo Bastías @pablogerbas.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Using LLMs for code review is amazing and terrifying. Amazing because in a few seconds you get good suggestions for improvement. Terrifying because it makes unexplainable changes based on random assumptions about the data.
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Sasha Gusev @sashagusevposts.bsky.social · 16/11/2024
I wrote about Eric Turkheimer's recent book on "the nature-nurture debate", which should be of interest to people thinking not just about the genetics of behavior but complex traits more broadly. A 🧵:
open.substack.com
Book Review: Eric Turkheimer's "Understanding the Nature-Nurture Debate"
Or, some thoughts on The Gloomy Prospect and the Gloomy Present
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Trish Greenhalgh @trishgreenhalgh.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
Hey #academicsky, there's a great opportunity for a visiting fellowship for someone from the Global South in Arts and Humanities, to spend time at Cambridge. Do pass on! www.cai.cam.ac.uk/vacancies/vi...
cai.cam.ac.uk
Visiting Bye-Fellowship for scholars from the Global South
The Opportunity
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Aaron Clauset @aaronclauset.bsky.social · 11/11/2024
🚨 The Colorado Index of Complex Networks (icon.colorado.edu) is reborn! ICON 2.0 indexes 699 distinct research-quality network data sets, classified into 6 domains (Social, Biological, Information, Economic, Technology, Transportation) and 53 subdomains /1 #networkscience
Screenshot of the Index of Complex networks (icon.colorado.edu) website, showing histograms of the 699 network data sets it indexes, sizes of the networks, and their representation across subdomains. It's a nice, slick interface.
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Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · 02/09/2024
Academic writing thought: That it was hard for YOU to figure something out does not mean you should make it hard for the READER to get it Explain as simply & clearly as you can You do not need to take the reader through your lengthy journey to clarity Work that took months may end up a footnote
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Pablo Geraldo Bastías @pablogerbas.bsky.social · 03/09/2024
Happy to see this finally out! Led by the amazing Bernie Koch, who also wrote the coding tutorials. Enjoy! t.co/c7NlbrUesL
t.co
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00491241241234866
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Maximilian Kasy @maxkasy.bsky.social · 28/08/2024
#introduction I am a Prof at Oxford. My research lies at the intersection of several fields, including #econometrics, #machinelearning, #labor, #inequality, #AI. I post links to papers, talks, long-form articles etc. Website: maxkasy.github.io/home/
maxkasy.github.io
Maximilian Kasy
Research on machine learning, experimental design, economic inequality, and optimal policy
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 26/08/2024
Nice short reminder and example that visualizations are analyses --- representation strongly influences interpretation
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Pablo Geraldo Bastías @pablogerbas.bsky.social · 14/06/2024
This quote 👌🏾
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 26/04/2024
Look at the video - the professor expresses concern about the assault of a protestor, touches no-one, and then is assaulted herself by police twitter.com/robertmackey...
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 20/03/2024
This is a witch hunt targeted primarily at scholars of color who study race. Chris Rufo now going after Christina Cross for "plagiarism" - his go-to example is *descriptions of data that are similar.* There are only so many ways you can describe data!
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Valentina Di Stasio @distasioval.bsky.social · 14/03/2024
‼️JOB‼️ Assistant Professor at ERCOMER, @utrechtuniversity.bsky.social, interdisciplinary social science department. Profile with expertise on discrimination, radicalization, polarization esp. welcome. Position permanent after 1year. Deadline: April 14. www.academictransfer.com/en/339028/as...
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Grant McDermott @gmcd.bsky.social · 27/02/2024
A new version of `etwfe` is available on CRAN. This v0.4.0 release includes an important bug fix for the (non-default) "never-treated" case, so please update if you use the 📦. For more info about (e)xtended (t)wo(w)ay (f)ixed (e)ffects, see the website: grantmcdermott.com/etwfe/ #EconSky #rstats
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Pablo Geraldo Bastías @pablogerbas.bsky.social · 20/02/2024
New preprint alert! **Credible causal inference beyond toy models** (Now in BlueSky!)
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