iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 07/09/2026

It was official a month ago, but now it came into practice. Happy new semester!

Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 03/09/2026

I know they’re not from the same country even, but are we sure Ludwig Görransson and Daðy Freyr are not the same person?

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 17/08/2026

הבנתי שמשוויצים פה בתמונות חופשה, אז הנה טעימה מהדולומיטים

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 05/08/2026

Professoring in times of climate collapse

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 19/05/2026

I don’t understand what kind of life event would make me *not* want the oven to heat up as quick as possible and, hence, why is that “quick heat” button in the middle even necessary 🤷🏻‍♂️🤔

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 15/05/2026

And, here is a coefficient plot for Whitten & Palmer's 1999 paper on clarity of responsibility and retrospective voting, Table 4 (link: doi.org/10.1016/S026...

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 15/05/2026

He also has an interesting regression table, which I turned (well, the interesting part of it) to a coefficient plot

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 15/05/2026

Singer 2011 has a table with the "most important issue" question across multiple CSES country surveys. It spans two pages. I asked Claude Code to turn it into a bar chart... Link to paper: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 01/05/2026

Meet Citation Compare: ortutt.github.io/citation-com... Enter an article's link or DOI and get not only its citation number but also see how it compares to all other articles published in the same year and journal. Information based on CrossRef API. Vibe coded by Claude. Hope people find it useful!

A screenshot from the Citation Compare webpage, showing the details for Louwerse et al. 2021

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 28/03/2026

Literally demonizing aliens without ever meeting one in person. Par for the course.

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 19/03/2026

And all who are really unhappy in Finland kill themselves… Though I do know a LOT of unhappy Israelis who haven’t left yet

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 18/03/2026

I teach @roycecarroll.bsky.social & Cox's 2012 paper on "Shadowing Ministers" and wanted to show Table 1 as a figure. 2 minutes with Claude Code gave me this. Link to the paper: journals.sagepub.com/share/HINRAU...

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 10/03/2026

@hadas.bsky.social the mysterious ways of the (non)algorithm...

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 02/03/2026

@marcdebus.bsky.social and I (2024) echo a claim that building coalitions has become increasingly difficult due to party system fragmentation across western democracies. I wanted to visualise that. Again, Codex to the rescue: Link: doi.org/10.1016/j.el...

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 02/03/2026

@fortunato.bsky.social has a paper (2019) that greatly influenced my thinking on political compromise. I wanted to show his operationalisation of compromise graphically. Claude gave me this in ~5 minutes: Link: doi.org/10.1017/S000...

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 02/03/2026

@swegmann.bsky.social has a cool dataset on opposition powers around the world (2022). I wanted a world map to show it. ~10-30 minutes with Codex and done! Link to the paper: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 01/03/2026

הוא… אומר את זה כמחמאה?

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 26/01/2026

הגזימו עם האבקת סוכר

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 30/12/2025

Neujahrsaperol Spritz 🏖️😎

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 02/10/2025

Interestingly, voters who believe their preferred formateur (PM candidate) will lose behave similarly to those who are uncertain, acting in what we call "puncher's chance" mentality. Both groups display higher rates of strategic behaviour (shown here relying on 6 🇩🇪 election surveys) 3/4

The effects of formateur uncertainty and preferences on formateur optimization.
Note: Predicted probabilities based on Model 2 in Table 2. Vertical capped lines represent 90% confidence intervals.

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 02/10/2025

Our cross-national analysis (@cses.bsky.social) shows: when there is uncertainty over which party will lead the next government, voters are more likely to vote for the two largest parties (left figure). This effect diminishes when partisan attachments are especially strong (right figure). 2/4

The effect of the electoral gap on formateur optimization.
Note: Predicted probabilities based on Model 2 in Table 1. Gray bars depict the percentage of cases for each value on the x-axis. Vertical capped lines represent 95% confidence intervals.

The marginal effect of formateur uncertainty conditional on thermometer drop.
Note: Marginal effects based on Model 3 in Table 1. Gray bars depict the percentage of cases for each value on the x-axis. Vertical capped lines represent 95% confidence intervals.

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 11/08/2025

The Israeli #polisci association just issued a statement opposing the government's plan to continue the conquest of Gaza, calling for an immediate negotiation for a permanent ceasefire. Main points (my summary):

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 28/07/2025

5 Israeli universit heads in a letter to PM Netanyahu calling him to ״to instruct the IDF [...] to intensify their efforts [...] to resolve the terrible famine in Gaza, which is causing immense suffering to innocent people, including children and infants.״ Full translated text in Alt

We, the presidents of five universities, appeal to you to instruct the IDF and other security forces to intensify their efforts, regardless of the heavy responsibility of Hamas and other actors, to resolve the terrible famine in Gaza, which is causing immense suffering to innocent people, including children and infants.
Together with a growing number of the country's residents, we are watching in horror the images coming from the Gaza Strip, including those of babies dying every day from hunger and disease. The release of the hostages and minimizing harm to our soldiers are paramount goals, but as a people who were victims of the terrible Holocaust in Europe, we also have a special duty to act with all means at our disposal to prevent and avoid cruel and indiscriminate harm to innocent men, women, and children.
We are appalled by statements made by ministers and members of the Knesset encouraging the deliberate destruction of the Gaza Strip and the expulsion of its civilian population. We expect a clear and unequivocal condemnation from you and from the government of these harsh statements, which are clearly an immoral call for acts that, according to senior legal experts in Israel and around the world, constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. The deliberate destruction and the plan to create a “humanitarian city” express a loss of restraint and humanity from which we cannot recover, and cause irreparable damage.
we expect you to take action.

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 03/07/2025

… we visited every time we were in Israel and he always seemed happy to see us, but equally happy to go back home (to the AC), which is a good thing. He coupled athleticism with longevity, and died at 14, tonight. He was always afraid of vets, so it’s good that he died in his sleep, on his couch ❤️

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 03/07/2025

Bali wasn’t my 1st dog, but he was my children’s older brother. He was a superdog, beautiful and mega-athletic. He was a gentle giant, great with kids - family & strangers, and playful with other dogs. Life (the move to Germany) made it so he spent the last 7 years in another home…

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 28/06/2025

In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 25/06/2025

So, Lufthansa, you’re telling me I can cooperate and for sure lose at least 30 mins waiting for my luggage, OR not cooperate, and *maybe* lose ~10 mins while you put others’ luggage into the hold? Nah, pass.

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 23/06/2025

I’m not joking people. Just bought a nice pair of sandals and I’m going to use ‘em at #epsa2025!

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 19/06/2025

לפחות הפעם הוא זכר את השם שלו

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 18/06/2025

So I guess this is an ad for performance-enhancement, but… like, athletic, or… you know

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 13/06/2025

כוס אמכם הצולעת לא יכולתם להגיד משהו, שלא נבוא?!

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 26/05/2025

איבדנו גם את גרמניה, למי שתהה

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 10/05/2025

My 7yo asked whether we’ll be flying to Israel with El-Al or…

An AI-made ad for an airline called Chimp-Hansa, looks like Lufthansa

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 10/05/2025

In a draft book chapter I submitted yesterday, I find a really cool mediation effect: the effect of an opposition party's conflict w/ government on its electoral performance in next elections is (partially) mediated by the media's campaign coverage. 1/3 #polisky #parlisky

A mediation analysis diagram, showing the effect of a party's conflict rate on its next vote share, mediated through party negativity and salience in media coverage. The effect of conflict rate is partially mediated through salience, but not negativity

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 07/05/2025

I don’t know, 2 days in advance feels like an un-vitation to me 😕

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 28/04/2025

הזמנו קראוון לקראת הטיול המתוכנן לנורבגיה בקיץ. עכשיו צריך לחזור לעבוד במקום להמשיך להסתכל על תמונות של הקראוון בארבעת החודשים הקרובים. השאלה היא: איך?! 🥺

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 27/04/2025

This is wild. Three stat rows that tell a story #nba

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 11/04/2025

2 grant proposals * 80% ready each + clear skies = 🍺

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 08/04/2025

I feel judged. But also, have you SEEN the present?

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Or Tuttnauer @ortuttnauer.com · 06/04/2025

כל התמונות להמחשה בלבד

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