Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026As Pierre Mendes France used to say "gouverner, c'est choisir". 011
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026The Treasury will be well pleased with the commitment to abolish the triple lock, restore a health and care levy and to begin a serious debate on our relations with the EU. It will be nervous about social care - it always is - but will recognise that something has to give. #soundmoney #freetrade 3266
Reposted by Nick MacphersonCiaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Absolutely right. Mr Burnham must run Britain just like Sir Jim Ratcliffe has run Manchester United. Like Britain, ManU was once a proud global giant. But like the UK, the club had entered a lengthy period of stagnation. Since Ratcliffe took over at Man Utd this once proud club has oh wait 1918743
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 20/08/2026Who'd be a forecaster? Just as the OBR revised down the trend rate of productivity growth, it appears to have picked up. A reminder of the resilience of the UK economy. UK finally showing signs of productivity boost, say economists - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FTgiftarticle.ft.comUK finally showing signs of productivity boost, say economistsBetter output figures are a fillip to chancellor John Healey and come after years of underperformance 2104
Reposted by Nick MacphersonTom Kelsey @tomkelsey.bsky.social · 17/08/2026Does the Treasury deserve its reputation for holding back the British economy? My new article in The Political Quarterly uses the histories of Concorde and civil nuclear power to challenge common arguments about the Treasury, industrial strategy, and state capacity. 🧵 1138
Reposted by Nick MacphersonDan Neidle @danneidle.bsky.social · 26/07/2026Scotland raised its top income tax rate to 48% to make the rich pay more. New HMRC data suggests the result may have been the opposite: Scotland collected about £22m less. We can't be sure, but Scotland may have fallen over the Laffer curve. 🧵: 2112547
Reposted by Nick MacphersonDavid Anderson @bricksilk.bsky.social · 26/07/2026The House of Lords Constitution Committee is starting a wide-ranging inquiry into strengthening our constitutional safeguards - as proposed by (Lord) Peter Hennessy. Look East, look West, and see the urgency. Written evidence requested by 28th of September. committees.parliament.uk/committee/17...committees.parliament.ukThe UK’s constitutional safeguards inquiry launched by Lords Constitution Committee - Committees - UK ParliamentThe House of Lords Constitution Committee has today published a call for evidence for its inquiry into the UK’s constitutional safeguards. It is inviting interested individuals and organisations... 1012272
Reposted by Nick MacphersonRobert Saunders @robertsaunders.bsky.social · 12/07/2026This was a really moving interview. We're enormously proud of Peter at Queen Mary. He's been a lone voice for a particular kind of virtue in public life: not as something we admire in ourselves, but as something we practice towards others - and especially our opponents. And he really embodies that. 1042069
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 09/07/2026Excellent paper. Well worth a read. My only worry is, given the ever increasing proportion of the tax take accounted for by the NHS, triple lock pension and debt interest, whether there will be the resources to fund it. 012
Reposted by Nick MacphersonPhilip Taylor @philipjtaylor.bsky.social · 01/07/2026@nickmacpherson.bsky.social 041
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026At the beginning of a parliament after a debate on whether it's better to institutionalise than to internalise the tensions between economic and finance ministry roles. I have my doubts. 020
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026Even more importantly a Chankr who has the experience to challenge and lead the Treasury and who has the intellectual and political skills to develop and implement a strategy. This is not a matter of left or right. The markets respect Chancellors who get things done. #soundmoney 040
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026The PM will inherit a fiscal situation which has deteriorated because of the Iran War. He is committed to sticking to the fiscal rules. He has little time. Better for him to appoint a Chancellor he can trust and work with 5/ 120
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026If the point of any change is to superpower Manchesterism and devolution he is choosing the wrong target. The Treasury under Gordon Brown and George Osborne was the biggest driver of devolution. 4/ 120
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026History is not encouraging. Mr Wilson set up the Department of Economic Affairs on day 1 in 1964 to ensure creative tension with HMT. It didn't work and he abolished the DEQ before his term ended in 1970 3/ 130
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026Rearranging the deckchairs carries a cost. Jobs have to be reapplied for. Equal pay claims have to be considered. The new PM has 3 years before an Election. Does he really want to emasculate, for a year or more, the department which will be most critical to his agenda? 2/ 140
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 25/06/2026There are respectable arguments for breaking up HM Treasury. Other countries separate the finance and economic ministry roles; others separate the finance/economic role from the budget ministry. But now is not the time. Let me explain why. 1/ 3138
Reposted by Nick MacphersonStrand Group KCL @strandgroup.bsky.social · 22/06/2026Join us on 8 July when Angela Rayner, Kim McGuinness, Lord Gove, @nickmacpherson.bsky.social & Ed Balls will launch a @harvardbizgov.bsky.social @kingscollegelondon.bsky.social paper: 'Regional Growth Two Years In' thestrandgroup.kcl.ac.uk/event/region...thestrandgroup.kcl.ac.ukRegional Growth Two Years In: Is the government on track to boost UK growth by closing regional divides? - The Strand GroupThe eighty-first Strand Group event launching a new paper: 'Regional Growth Two Years In: Is the government on track to boost UK growth by closing regional divides?' for King's College London and the ... 026
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/05/2026He probably would have gone out in a frock coat and chopped down a tree or two. 031
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 22/05/2026In a sane world, all factors of production including land would be taxed to keep marginal tax rates low. Lloyd George took on the Lords in the People's Budget to get a Land Tax on the statute book. Several years, elections & a world war later he repealed the tax after raising virtually no revenue. 071
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/05/2026Whoever decided to americanise "social security" by calling it welfare made a big mistake. 081
Reposted by Nick MacphersonJohn Rentoul @rentouljohn.bsky.social · 23/04/2026Breaking news: crime not rising www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula... 3207
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 17/04/2026Ciaran was making the narrow point that the DV report should not be shared. I would be surprised if Sir Oliver did nothing but he will no doubt tell us who did what when in due course. 340
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 17/04/2026@ciaranm.bsky.social was my private secretary at HM Treasury before going on to be the Cabinet Secretary's right hand man. I can confirm he is right on this, as he invariably is on everything else. #badbusiness 42716
Reposted by Nick MacphersonCiaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 14/04/2026This paper represents a small but deeply impressive and genuinely important achievement by the much maligned British state in what is probably the most important global issue of our era. Hear me out ( 🧵) 1/ www.aisi.gov.uk/blog/our-eva...aisi.gov.ukOur evaluation of Claude Mythos Preview’s cyber capabilities | AISI WorkWe conducted cyber evaluations of Anthropic’s Claude Mythos Preview and found continued improvement in capture-the-flag (CTF) challenges and significant improvement on multi-step cyber-attack simulati... 4228135
Reposted by Nick MacphersonMaeve Walsh @maevewalsh.bsky.social · 07/02/2026💯 this from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social 0126
Reposted by Nick MacphersonPepper Culpepper @pculpepper.bsky.social · 07/02/2026I’m teaching a class on lobbying for future policymakers on Monday. Hard to do better than this sensational oped from @nickmacpherson.bsky.social about money in UK politics and the transition from big banks to big tech—but the song remains the same. And the loser is public trust in government. 052
Reposted by Nick MacphersonFinancial Times @financialtimes.com · 06/02/2026 Counting the cost of money in politics ft.trib.al/sAx2W1p | opinionft.trib.alCounting the cost of money in politicsRevelations of Mandelson’s cabinet leaks spotlight the symbiotic relationship between government and bankers 12310
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 06/02/2026My thoughts on the events of this week for tomorrow's FT. url.uk.m.mimecastprotect.com/s/YlnhCgZmgt...url.uk.m.mimecastprotect.comCounting the cost of money in politicsRevelations of Mandelson’s cabinet leaks spotlight the symbiotic relationship between government and bankers 272
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 02/02/2026Alistair Darling and the official Treasury were always aware that investment banks had an inside track to Number 10. But the brazen nature of that inside track is rather breath-taking. 12356186
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/11/2025I commend this review which I carried out in 2013. The recommendations remain relevant today. assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7f09...assets.publishing.service.gov.uk 098
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/11/2025The only way to raise serious revenue is to raise a tax which everybody pays. Raising a tax which someone else pays rarely raises the revenue needed and creates endless pressure from special interest groups. Compare and contrast Mr Osborne's 2 1/2% VAT increase with his pasty tax. #omnishambles 411237
Reposted by Nick MacphersonPhilip Taylor @philipjtaylor.bsky.social · 29/10/2025Nikolaus Pevsner famously described the demolition of Sir John Soane's Bank of England, as "the greatest architectural crime in the City of London of the twentieth century". Here is Project Soane's initial recreation of parts of it. @nickmacpherson.bsky.social youtu.be/TlSdcXIqufQ?...youtu.beVisualizing architectural wonders lost to history: rendering Project SoaneYouTube video by RAMSA | Robert A.M. Stern Architects 183
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 29/10/2025I blame Montagu Norman. As J M Keynes said of him "always so charming, always so wrong". 120
Reposted by Nick MacphersonChetun Patel @chepat73.bsky.social · 29/10/2025Case study week on the 'Chancellors and the Treasury' module on @strandgroup.bsky.social MA Government Studies - Expert advisers @nickmacpherson.bsky.social @officialedballs.bsky.social prep students before they re-enact the day UK left the ERM in Sep 1992, a historic and chaotic 24 hours 035
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 11/06/20252 thoughts on the spending review. 1. Raising public service productivity is more important than ever. 2. 15 years of prioritising the NHS, education and "triple lock" (and now defence) by cutting all other programmes, in particular the home office and justice) is no longer sustainable. #soundmoney 153
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/04/2025I dodged that question but I do recall writing an essay later on about the bright prospects for raising productivity growth in the coal industry: not the first or last time I was a tad optimistic about Britain's growth prospects. 070
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 05/04/2025Sound economic analysis from the ever insightful @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social. #freetrade www.thetimes.com/article/06e1...thetimes.comStarmer must defy Trump by hugging other tariff victims closerBritain doesn’t deserve to be on the end of Donald Trump’s taxes, but the solution may be to form an economic coalition of the willing and focus on what we’re good at 13816
Reposted by Nick MacphersonAlan Beattie @alanbeattie.bsky.social · 03/04/2025My Trade Secrets response to the tariffs. Bad news: these tariffs cd be worse than the 1930s & the Republicans are inflicting their deep pathology on the world. Good news: this is as yet a US trade war, not a world trade war. Others can resist following Trump's crazy road. First 300 clicks free.on.ft.comA US tariff pathology is unleashed upon the world[FREE TO READ] The Republicans have allowed a destructive economic nationalist to lead America into chaos 615657
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 31/03/2025Fiscal rules can be useful. But the Treasury always attaches more importance to them than they deserve. And something which can be broken with impunity on a regular basis isn't a rule. It's a target. Much more important is whether the public finances are sustainable. 512826
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/03/2025The biggest challenge for the Chancellor is delivering the revenue forecast. Despite all the tax increases since Labour last left office, the tax burden only rose by 2.1 per cent of GDP in 15 years. Today's forecast assumes a similar rise in just 5 years. If only raising revenue was that easy... 120
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 26/03/2025Debt service costs are set to rise from £105.2bn to £131.6bn over the next 5 years, a growth rate significantly ahead of spending on public services and welfare. a reminder that the Chancellor is right to prioritise fiscal consolidation. #soundmoney 092
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Earnings related unemployment benefit abolished in 1982. Earnings related invalidity benefit and the state earnings related pension scheme lived on until the mid-90s, having been cut back in the Fowler reforms of the mid-80s. 171
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 18/03/2025True. Barbara Castle's 1975 reforms exchanged income related contributory benefits for income related NI contributions. It was peak social insurance. Sadly it didn't last. By the mid-1980s it was deemed unaffordable. But income related national insurance lives on at a much higher rate. 1101
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 18/03/2025I signed on to supplementary benefit in 1978 -aged 18 -having broken my arm. I may be wrong but I'm pretty sure my benefit at a little under £14 a week was more generous in real terms than it is now, despite living standards more than doubling since. It was the year the UK was at its most equal. 2698
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/03/2025I've been wrestling with the same issue for some weeks. I still haven't found the answer. But I suspect washed up and cynical HMT officials (me not you) aren't the target audience. 150
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 14/03/2025Good to know Canada is in safe hands. If ever someone was well qualified to deal with the extraordinary challenges Britain's most reliable and loyak ally faces, it's my old friend Dr Carney. #freetrade 1284
Reposted by Nick MacphersonCiaran Martin @ciaranm.bsky.social · 13/03/2025Love the way no one over here paid any attention to Australia when a massive Chinese warship started live-firing off its coast, but some random influencer no one’s ever heard of steals a baby wombat and our media can’t get enough 😀😬 1839251
Nick Macpherson @nickmacpherson.bsky.social · 07/03/2025My book review for tomorrow's FT. www.ft.com/content/c741...ft.comMellon vs Churchill — when world leaders chose co-operation over confrontationJill Eicher’s timely book brings to life the battle between the US Treasury secretary and the British chancellor in the wake of the first world war 052
