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Michael Hanna

@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
2.9K followers 552 following 603 posts

Director, U.S. Program, International Crisis Group; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Reiss Center on Law and Security, NYU School of Law

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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 09/10/2026
The thing about the Russian diesel deal, setting aside all other issues, is that it doesn’t make sense even in transactional terms. The volumes being discussed aren’t going to stabilize the market, if Russia is able to fulfill the terms.
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Matt Novak @paleofuture.bsky.social · 08/10/2026
Iran sometimes does public executions but I can't find evidence they've ever televised one. It seems like North Korea, China, and Saudi Arabia have also never televised or livestreamed any executions. Looks like the U.S. will be in a club of one if Pete Hegseth goes through with this.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/10/2026
Taking the barbarism to the next level. Horrific.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/10/2026
The legacy of the Saudi-led war in Yemen, the problematic nature of prior U.S. interventions and the genesis of the current Iran war have all served to obscure the negative effects of the recent Houthi advances.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/10/2026
Our piece from last week notes the possibility that Iran may escalate over the increased traffic through Hormuz’s southern corridor. Emerging signs that the pace of Iranian attacks is increasing. Unclear whether an increase in tempo is enough to deter the runs. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/united-s...
crisisgroup.org
Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping ...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 08/10/2026
“In a cable viewed by The Times on which he is listed as the first author, Mr. Milstein praised Mr. Netanyahu’s “unprecedented new initiatives to combat” rising violence in the West Bank.” How a U.S. Diplomat Suppressed and Altered Reports Critical of Israel www.nytimes.com/2026/10/08/w...
nytimes.com
How a U.S. Diplomat Suppressed and Altered Reports Critical of Israel
A top aide to Ambassador Mike Huckabee skewed information to portray the Netanyahu government in a favorable light, according to multiple officials and documents obtained by The Times.
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Matt Peterson @mattpeterson.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Very good Crisis Group briefing makes the point that the Hormuz shuttle runs that have more allowed oil out of the strait may prompt Iranian attacks to reassert control. "Good news for energy markets today – more tankers through Hormuz – may herald new risks of Iranian escalation tomorrow"
crisisgroup.org
Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping ...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 02/10/2026
Shuttle runs through Hormuz, despite Iran’s attacks, have increasingly succeeded in getting oil out through the southern corridor. Risks and costs are significant, but runs account for most oil moving out and have eroded Iranian claims/leverage. Battle over corridor may be the trigger for escalation
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 01/10/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Which five market-shaping developments could affect whether fighting ramps up or de-escalates?
crisisgroup.org
Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping ...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 01/10/2026
We have also tried to give a panoramic view of market dynamics beyond the Gulf. To do so, we have focused on five market-shaping developments that could affect whether fighting ramps up or de-escalates.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 01/10/2026
Very pleased to have this out. My colleague Chris Newton and I have tried to lay out how oil, gas and fuel prices are impacting U.S. decisions on the war, with Washington striving to lower and Tehran to keep them high. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/united-s...
crisisgroup.org
Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping ...
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Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · 30/09/2026
NEW COMMENTARY | The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? With the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surrounding the state’s capacity to assert its authority, the significance of the withdrawal is mainly symbolic.
crisisgroup.org
The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group
The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 29/09/2026
My colleague @lahibhigel.bsky.social and I look at what’s next for Iraq with the completion of the anti-ISIS coalition’s withdrawal tomorrow. The militia dilemma remains and how it is dealt with will go a long way in determining the shape of U.S.-Iraq relations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S.-led Anti-ISIS Coalition is Leaving Iraq: What Happens Next? | International Crisis Group
The coming withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces marks a significant moment in Iraq’s tumultuous recent history. Yet with the Middle East war bringing conflict to the country and questions surroundi...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
Notable was the absence of China, which was only mentioned in Trump’s comments on what he referred to as “super intelligence.” While he reaffirmed that he would not seek to rein in AI, he had little else to say about what is the most consequential bilateral relationship in the world.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
Even his attacks on “global government” were perfunctory, and while he called on nations to resign from the ICC, which he described as out of control, he offered little beyond pro forma criticisms.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
When he pivoted back to the Western hemisphere, Trump was bullish on Venezuela, crassly crowing that “to the victor go the spoils”, and insistent that change was coming to Cuba. But again, Trump covered no new territory on these fronts.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
Jarringly, but expectedly, Trump packaged his boasts about his peacemaking prowess with by-now familiar, but still shocking threats to annihilate Iran in the absence of a deal. His prediction of an inevitable deal following midterm elections in November was characteristically short on details.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
Despite his patchy record on peace and security, not to mention his decision to launch a war of choice against Iran, Trump remains keen on boasting about his track record on conflict resolution.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
Instead, what Trump had to offer was a repackaging of familiar themes, some of which were aimed less at those gathered at the UN but to a restive U.S. public, frustrated by the economic impacts of the Iran war.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/09/2026
A few thoughts on Trump’s speech at the GA, which was short by his standards and notable for the lack of new initiatives or announcements. In that sense, those gathered might have breathed a sigh of relief.
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Richard Gowan @richardgowan1.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
It's out! @crisisgroup.org's annual reckoning with the state of the UN is here. Big congrats to @fortid.crisisgroup.org for pulling it together this year. www.crisisgroup.org/sbr/global/s...
crisisgroup.org
Ten Challenges for the UN in 2026-2027 | International Crisis Group
As the 2026 General Assembly begins, the UN remains hobbled by cost cutting and big-power wrangling. The new Secretary-General to be chosen soon cannot cure all that ails the organisation, but much ca...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 11/09/2026
My colleagues Phil Gunson and Delaney Simon run down the knowns and unknowns of Trump's purported oil deal with Venezuela. www.crisisgroup.org/qna/latin-am...
crisisgroup.org
What Future for Venezuela after the U.S. Oil Carve-up? | International Crisis Group
The Trump administration has announced an agreement with Caracas that it says gives the U.S. a major stake in the Venezuelan oil industry. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Delaney Sim...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 10/09/2026
It’s striking how little attention is being paid to the Iran war and its regional effects when the possibilities for escalation are many and would be keenly felt by U.S. consumers.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 01/09/2026
What’s much clearer today is that a U.S.-led economic war on Iran anchored to a blockade will eventually tip into military conflict. It’s an open question whether current hostilities will remain contained. But without an agreement in place, Iran will continue to try to hold Hormuz hostage.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 01/09/2026
Liverpool summer of 24 vs 25 is the quintessential example of this.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 25/08/2026
With my home state of Tennessee going off the rails in recent years, it was always nice to be able to point to Dolly Parton as an ambassador for the state. Sad news.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 24/08/2026
This detached-from-reality rhetoric is far preferable to the alternative of going back to full-on war. Effectively a coping mechanism.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 12/08/2026
Trump is trapped by the US’s strategic defeat in this war and is not reconciled yet to the realities on the ground. There are no easy ways out now that don’t come with major costs.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 12/08/2026
My colleague @mairavz.bsky.social on Israeli views of the ongoing US-Israel MOU negotiations. www.crisisgroup.org/cmt/middle-e...
crisisgroup.org
The U.S. and Israel: From Aid to Strategic Integration | International Crisis Group
The debate under way about U.S. military assistance to Israel is a barometer of bilateral relations. Israeli officials have accepted that the next deal could be the last of its kind, but they are also...
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 05/08/2026
Many individuals within the bureaucracy, political, military and career, understood well the risks a war with Iran posed for Hormuz, and it remains striking that nobody resigned (not to even mention objections to legality and morality).
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Guardian Sport @sport.theguardian.com · 31/07/2026
Franco Baresi, iconic former Milan and Italy defender, dies aged 66
dlvr.it
Franco Baresi, iconic former Milan and Italy defender, dies aged 66
* Italian icon had undergone surgery on pulmonary nodule * ‘The entire history of ⁠Milan is in ⁠tears,’ Serie A club says The former Milan and Italy defender Franco Baresi, one of the most recognisable players of the ⁠golden era of Italian football in the 1980s and 1990s, has died at the age of 66. “The entire history of ⁠AC Milan is in ⁠tears following the ​passing of Franco Baresi,” his former club said on Friday. “His example and integrity will be forever etched into the club’s DNA, just as his iconic No 6 shirt is.” Continue reading...
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Brian Finucane @bcfinucane.bsky.social · 30/07/2026
Pleased to speak with @nahaltoosi.bsky.social. "People involved in unlawful activity under this administration, 20 years down the line, if they happen to travel to Europe, it might catch up with them."
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 30/07/2026
Yesterday’s drone strike on Damietta, which looks to be linked to the Iran war, represents escalation on regional energy/global markets. Also another signal that Iran is prioritizing its war effort over relations with other regional parties, despite Egypt’s efforts at rapprochement and mediation.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 30/07/2026
An important emerging dynamic is that the U.S. is not the sole actor capable of determining when and if fighting continues. Iran can keep the war going in the event they aren’t satisfied with the terms governing any ceasefire.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 29/07/2026
The timing and optics of these attacks - so soon after the successful meetings of the Iraqi PM in Washington - are a real problem for Iraq’s new leader.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 23/07/2026
It’s of course very possible that this is simply Trump trying to divert criticism without actually affecting the agreement, but it nonetheless will raise red flags.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 23/07/2026
Setting aside views about wisdom of a nuclear agreement with Saudi, Trump’s post-agreement normalization talk is an unwelcome reminder for the region about U.S. unreliability under Trump and the outsized role Israel plays in decisions about their own security.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 22/07/2026
My reflections from last year on a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal. Most notable features remain the same: the decoupling of nuclear issues from normalization with Israel and Trump’s political latitude in this space in comparison to a Democratic president. www.crisisgroup.org/alr/united-s...
crisisgroup.org
As Other Partners Struggle with Trump, U.S. and Saudi Arabia Move toward Nuclear Cooperation | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group’s Michael Wahid Hanna on a prospective nuclear cooperation deal between Washington and Riyadh
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 20/07/2026
“Jon Finer told me that the hallmark of the Gaza conflict has been that, for both Hamas and Israel, ‘civilian harm was not a side effect but part of the strategy.’” The Enabler: www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
newyorker.com
How Biden Enabled Israel’s Aggression Toward Gaza—and Iran
Top officials from the previous Administration now express regret over their failure to rein in Netanyahu.
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This Is Anfield @thisisanfield.com · 20/07/2026
NEW: Kevin Keegan, Liverpool legend, dies aged 75 #lfc
thisisanfield.com
Kevin Keegan, Liverpool legend, dies aged 75
This Is Anfield
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 20/07/2026
My first hazy memories of football are of Kevin Keegan. Incredible player. Sad to hear of his death.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
Oh wow, I hadn’t clocked that either.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
Nico Williams has made a big difference since he came on.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
Couldn’t happen to a better guy.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
So much of the world united together today in rooting against Argentina.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 19/07/2026
The United States is intent on waging wars at zero cost and somehow seems shocked that interstate war comes with real risks.
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The Great Pumpkin Papers 🎃🎃🎃 @professormusgrave.bsky.social · 18/07/2026
One day again, America will wage a war when the USA shares in the direct costs of conflict, and I do not believe Americans are psychologically ready for it.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 18/07/2026
Ha ha, sure, that should be very straightforward: “Open the strait. And then, hard as it is for Trump to keep his mouth shut, it’s time for what wise negotiators sometimes call “dynamic silence.”” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
washingtonpost.com
Opinion | Trump pushed the reset button. This is ‘Iran Fiasco 2.0.’
A coalition can keep Hormuz open and squeeze Tehran. There’s no need to rush a nuclear deal.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 15/07/2026
There’s literally never a reason to root for Argentina. Never.
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Michael Hanna @mwhanna.crisisgroup.org · 15/07/2026
Vamos Espana. Save us all.
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