Reposted by MJ YangKristina McElheran @kmcelheran.bsky.social · 05/02/2026Great coverage of our paper J-curve paper on AI’s productivity impacts by @willagreer.bsky.social in @npr.org’s Planet Money newsletter! www.npr.org/sections/pla...npr.org5 papers from the Super Bowl of EconomicsPlanet Money went to the annual meeting of the American Economics Association, and we saw some fascinating papers presented there. 132
Reposted by MJ YangDaniela Scur @danielascur.bsky.social · 29/12/2025Thoughts of love (and maybe some whisky) to all toddler parents with no daycare this week 071
Reposted by MJ YangAdam Grant @adamgrant.bsky.social · 20/11/2025It's time to remove laptops from classrooms. 24 experiments: Students learn more and get better grades after taking notes by hand than typing. It's not just because they're less distracted—writing enables deeper processing and more images. The pen is mightier than the keyboard. 20383121
Reposted by MJ YangKevin A. Bryan @afinetheorem.bsky.social · 24/11/2025Hiring this year in economics or management? I try to read every JMP on innovation, entrepreneurship, or econ of AI; why not make the list public? Here's 54 candidates on the market this year (link below). Many great papers + NBER Innovation PhD boot camp grads! kevinbryanecon.com/2025innovati...kevinbryanecon.comInnovation, Entrepreneurship, AI Job Candidates 2025 1103
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 07/11/2025In case you missed it: OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar insinuating OpenAI would be "open" to a bailout by the Federal Government for its 1.5 trillion chip purchase contracts... www.wsj.com/video/openai...wsj.comOpenAI CFO Would Support Federal Backstop for Chip InvestmentsSarah Friar, OpenAI’s finance chief, says the company would support federal measures to make it easier to finance sizable investments in AI chips. She spoke at WSJ’s Tech Live event in California. 010
Reposted by MJ YangColleen Cunningham @colleencunningham.bsky.social · 16/10/2025New WP (by me and others) on how disclosure mandates: (1) increase disclosure (primarily of negative outcomes), and (2) how expectations of increased disclosure by others slows down innovation. Link and more details in @florianederer.bsky.social's thread... 0124
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 13/10/2025PSA on United Airlines: If you miss your initial flight from a roundtrip they cancel all subsequent flights and keep your money. And airline is unwilling to rebook even though they have available seats. Just rebooked with Delta Air Lines, to leave SFO.. 100
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 30/09/2025Very happy to see this paper in (online) print. Together with Michael Christensen, @raffasadun.bsky.social , @nickbloom.bsky.social and Jan Rivkin, we interviewed hundreds of CEOs to measure how they make business strategy. pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/...pubsonline.informs.orgHow Do Chief Executive Officers Make Strategy? | Management Science 141
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 21/09/2025Yes, the idea that LLMs pay uniform attention to everything in a paper (or are "better at paying attention that humans") is a widely believed myth. 020
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 21/09/2025Financial crisis? "According to Moody’s, structured finance has become a popular way to pay for new data center projects, with more than $9 billion of issuance in the commercial mortgage-backed security and asset-backed security markets during the first four months of 2025." (Ian Frisch, NYTimes) 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 15/09/2025"Accenture, (...), in its most recent quarter reported a $100 million increase in new generative AI bookings quarter over quarter. That is down from a $200 million quarter-over-quarter increase the previous two periods." www.wsj.com/articles/how...wsj.comHow the AI Boom Is Leaving Consultants BehindConsultants have a lot to gain helping companies deploy the most transformative technology in decades. Some clients say so far they have overpromised and underdelivered. 010
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 15/09/2025PSA if you travel to SMS-SF: I used the SMS-provided promo code on United and compared it with exactly the same flight without the promo code. The code made my airfare $40 MORE expensive. Nice anecdote for price discrimination or business ethics? www.colorado.edu/today/2025/0...colorado.eduYour next airline ticket could be priced by AIDelta is testing an AI-powered pricing system that could charge two travelers different fares even if they are purchasing at the same moment. Pricing strategy 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 12/09/2025On the Charlie Kirk assassination: "Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent." (Isaac Asimov, Foundation) www.cnn.com/2025/09/12/u...cnn.comFull press conference: Governor names Charlie Kirk shooting suspect | CNNUtah’s governor Spencer Cox says they have a suspect in the Charlie Kirk shooting in custody. Cox identified the suspect as Tyler Robinson and presented the evidence investigators have uncovered at a ... 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 10/09/2025The LLM turning point is coming ( = we may be close to the "peak of inflated expectations" in the Hype Cycle). www.economist.com/business/202...economist.comFaith in God-like large language models is waningThat may be good news for AI laggards like Apple 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 06/09/2025Have we learned nothing from conflicts of interest during the subprime housing crisis? "Both authors have a financial interest in www.expectedparrot.com. Horton is an economic advisor to Anthropic." 011
Reposted by MJ YangKristina McElheran @kmcelheran.bsky.social · 27/08/2025Excited to have my research (co-authored with the dream team of @mjyang.bsky.social, Zachary Kroff, and @erikbryn.bsky.social) featured in the New Yorker! 093
Reposted by MJ YangKevin A. Bryan @afinetheorem.bsky.social · 25/08/2025Incredibly excited for my brand new class at Rotman this fall: Progress! Econ history + theory + history of thought + philosophy on why rare orgs at rare times in rare places accomplish new things. Trying to put rigor onto an idea that is very much in the air. kevinbryanecon.com/Bryan-Progre... 1/3 1164
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 20/08/2025Seems Sam Altman thinks "Yes", AI is in a bubble? Yet, he wants to let OpenAI employees convert stock to cash with an implied valuation of $500 Billion? (with a B!). What happend to getting "PhD level" ChatGPT-5 expertise, .. (checks notes) .. two weeks ago?!? www.theverge.com/ai-artificia...theverge.comSam Altman says ‘yes,’ AI is in a bubbleIs the bubble about to burst? 000
Reposted by MJ YangBen Spigel @benspigel.bsky.social · 19/08/2025There is an.....interesting op-ed in today's WSJ from a 22 year old entrepreneur telling everyone that work life balance will "keep you mediocre" It is completly wrong. Let me tell you why with citations. [gift link to the very wrong op-ed] 1/n www.wsj.com/opinion/work... 261
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 09/08/2025Odd, or signal that ChatGPT-5 is lower quality, but cheaper to run, because it decides when a high-token test-time compute run is triggered.. 000
Reposted by MJ YangJoshua Gans @joshgans.bsky.social · 03/08/2025You should read @noahpinion.blogsky.venki.dev on the data centre investments and whether they will lead to a financial crisis. I think he downplays the risk. It is potentially very high. www.noahpinion.blog/p/will-data-...noahpinion.blogWill data centers crash the economy?This time let's think about a financial crisis before it happens. 195
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 27/07/2025Disruption of the traditional MBA is here, whether we want it or not.. 010
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 26/07/2025Consider: Google has a 90% market share in web and mobile searches. And has Gemini LLM results on top by default on any search. Are 1 trillion processed tokens really a sign of usefulness? (Same question about MSFT forcing LLMs on their developers..) We see "revealed preference", just not for LLMs. 110
Reposted by MJ YangKristina McElheran @kmcelheran.bsky.social · 23/07/2025I have been thinking about this a lot, lately, after finding the troubling productivity impacts of AI on older firms ( conference.nber.org/conf_papers/... ), combined with prior work showing the impacts of digitization on older workers (www.nber.org/papers/w28094). #EconSkyconference.nber.org 021
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 17/07/2025Naked self-promotion: My fantastic co-author @kmcelheran.bsky.social will present our empirical paper on "Industrial AI" (self-driving forklifts, self-optimizing production lines, autonomous quality control) and its effect on productivity in US manufacturing. www.nber.org/conferences/...nber.orgSI 2025 Digital Economics and Artificial Intelligence 131
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 14/07/2025Its not me, its the LLMs: in domains including coding, math, mapping, logic and now simple physics, they overfit and are unable to generalize. Still waiting for ChatGPT-5 btw.. 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 30/06/2025I agree that teachers (=experts) using LLMs has clear benefits. I think the evidence of benefits of LLMs for students is less consistent and more context dependent. LLMs are not a hoax, but also clearly over-hyped. 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 29/06/2025Part of the avalanche of recent papers showing incoherence of LLMs: @sendhil.bsky.social and coauthors show that LLM answers contradict their reasoning in the majority of cases, among 7 current LLM/LRM models. Another datapoint on "LLM reasoning is just pretense". arxiv.org/abs/2506.21521arxiv.orgPotemkin Understanding in Large Language ModelsLarge language models (LLMs) are regularly evaluated using benchmark datasets. But what justifies making inferences about an LLM's capabilities based on its answers to a curated set of questions? This... 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 28/06/2025Finished "Empire of AI" by @karenhao.bsky.social: important & compelling read for anybody worried about the broader social consequences of LLMs, even if we never reach AGI. I was initially skeptical about the "empire/colonialism" framing but now appreciate it. www.amazon.com/s?k=empire+o...amazon.comAmazon.com : empire of ai 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 28/06/2025More evidence on the educational costs of LLMs: users underperform peers using traditional web-search. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....papers.ssrn.comExperimental Evidence of the Effects of Large Language Models versus Web Search on Depth of LearningThe effects of using large language models (LLMs) versus traditional web search on depth of learning are explored. Results from four online and laboratory exper 010
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 25/06/2025Yup, that OpEd reminds me of the recent MIT-brain study on LLM use.. 010
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 19/06/2025Very impressive study showing that LLM-use reduces brain activity for an essay writing task, over a 4-month time horizon. Letting college students use LLMs can significantly reduce educational benefits, not increase them. 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 19/06/2025LLM-generated code is highly likely to generate cybersecurity risks. Yet, a majority of IT professionals say they believe that LLM-generated code is more secure than human code. Maybe because MSFT and others claim "up to 30%" of their code is LLM-based? Wait a sec.. youtu.be/NxOehfOfB6c?...youtu.beGenerative AI and Code Security — recent developments as of June 2025YouTube video by Spec Again: Reinventing Modern Software Careers 100
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Sad to see, but true: LLM companies are systematically gaming leaderboards, to make LLMs seem smarter than they are. This is why the Apple paper from 2 weeks ago had so much impact: it is part of a string of work that shows the misleading claims of (leading) LLM companies. arxiv.org/abs/2504.20879arxiv.orgThe Leaderboard IllusionMeasuring progress is fundamental to the advancement of any scientific field. As benchmarks play an increasingly central role, they also grow more susceptible to distortion. Chatbot Arena has emerged ... 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 17/06/2025Interesting new developments on the Quantum Computing (QC) front: IBM reports that it developed new error-correction to cut the required physical qbits for one logical qbit by 90%. Commercially useful QCs might be with us by the end of the decade! youtu.be/ZNQIF_q3NVA?...youtu.beSurprise Progress in Quantum ComputingYouTube video by Sabine Hossenfelder 100
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 09/06/2025Yup, "LLM reasoning" is just pretense. But OpenAI, Google and Anthropic still charge extra for these "frontier" models. My question: What will LLM companies come up next to try and convince us that AI scaling does not run into diminishing returns?garymarcus.substack.comA knockout blow for LLMs?LLM “reasoning” is so cooked they turned my name into a verb 130
Reposted by MJ YangSSRN @ssrn.bsky.social · 06/06/2025Does #AI Prediction Scale to #DecisionMaking? The authors argue that there are fundamental limits to AI’s predictive paradigm. Authors: Mari Sako & Teppo Felin Read More: spkl.io/63325fAN9T 032
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 20/05/2025Interesting RCT from the World Bank on the impact of LLM usage in Nigerian high schools on English language proficiency. Effects are very large (6 weeks of 2x per week, 1.5 hrs ChatGPT use = 1.5 years of English lessons). Hallucinations obviously no problem here. Would this work with math? 120
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 17/05/2025Looks like consumer inflation expectations have lost their anchor. If the Fed does not aggressively increase rates, inflation will shift up. But if rates go up, we will hit a recession this year. Stagflation here we come? 000
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 15/05/2025Hard not to be optimistic, when you see the recent revolutionary advances in medicine: CRISPR and mRNA/siRNA related technologies could fully AND cheaply (!) heal a large number of rare "Orphan diseases", that are currently too unprofitable for big Pharma R&D. www.nytimes.com/2025/05/15/h...nytimes.comBaby Is Healed With World’s First Personalized Gene-Editing Treatment 111
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 07/05/2025It IS suprising that LLM hallucination rates have been increasing over the last year, especially given the prominent claims about "AI scaling", "Emergent properties" etc, through more data and more NVidia chips. This looks more like diminishing returns to me.. 110
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 05/05/2025Hallucination rates in LLM reasoning models are off the charts and have gotten WORSE: OpenAI (not some Luddite) reports hallucinations for o3/o4 of 33%/48%. How is this consistent with all the hype for reasoning systems beating all these benchmarks? www.nytimes.com/2025/05/05/t...nytimes.comA.I. Hallucinations Are Getting Worse, Even as New Systems Become More PowerfulA new wave of “reasoning” systems from companies like OpenAI is producing incorrect information more often. Even the companies don’t know why. 010
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 05/05/2025Dear Bluesky: Trump is not running for a 3rd term. Trump: "I’ll be an eight-year president; I’ll be a two-term president. I always thought that was very important, to be honest with you." Can we please acknowledge this and move on? www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre...nbcnews.comFull interview: President Trump says he’ll be a ‘two-term president,’ downplays third-term talkPresident Donald Trump joins Meet the Press for an exclusive and wide-ranging interview reflecting on the first 100 days of his second term and laying out his vision for the rest of his presidency – a... 100
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 01/05/2025Meta's bet: the open-source LLMs are like the open system of Microsoft in the 80s, while proprietary LLMs like ChatGPT are like Mac in the 80s. Key question: how valuable are complementor-users like academia, who need published weights like in Llama and will buy Nvidia GPUs? My (biased) sense: very. 020
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 29/04/2025This looks promising for Quantum Computing! Once the current uncertainty is over, we might see more progress on the path to Quantum Computers solving practical problems.. www.meritalk.com/articles/nsf...meritalk.comNSF Officials: Quantum, AI Well Positioned on White House Policy AgendaTwo officials from the National Science Foundation (NSF) are pointing to early indications from the White House’s science and technology agenda as evidence that development of quantum and artificial i... 110
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 29/04/2025I agree: LLMs are real and NOT a scam, with real, even tangible benefits especially for people who are already domain experts. However, LLMs are also over-hyped, as exemplified by the "reasoning" they show, which is mostly pretense. Just to say that doesn't make one a Luddite, either. 020
MJ Yang @mjyang.bsky.social · 15/04/2025Great blog entry by @dmckenzie.bsky.social on the question of "How to manage governments better". If you read "Abundance" by Klein-Thompson, but want to know more about what the implications for government design are beyond "de-regulation", you will enjoy this excellent and thoughtful blog! 032