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Parlamentare 2024: o estimare a intențiilor de vot

Yes, those are good proxies. It will depend on the turnout and of how much wasted votes get redistributed. Here a prediction from a decent sociologist, though there have only been two opinion polls published this week and the quality of polls is low: tinyurl.com/mr268748 tinyurl.com/r5yssaj3

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Reiau exercițiul de predicție a rezultatelor alegerilor pe baza combinării estimărilor produse de sondaje (pentru prezidențiale, vezi aici și aici). De această dată e rândul alegerilor parlamentare…

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I mostly agree and it will be sad and frustrating if none of them makes it into Parliament, but SENS are arguing that their potential voters would have stayed home if they accepted to join a coalition with a (economically) more right wing party...

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(PDF) A hard test for Romania's democratic resilience

You can read here a somewhat longer explanation I wrote for Oxford Analytica regarding the outcome of the first round of the presidential elections and its implications for Romanian politics: tinyurl.com/ya4kj6v8

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PDF | What happened in the first round of the Romanian 2024 presidential elections and what can we expect from the parliamentary elections? | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchG...

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Given the recent backlash against grand coalitions and the likely fragmentation of parliament, the likelihood of a minority coalition cabinet is increasing. However, the parties will be incentivised to compromise, given the constitutional difficulties in calling early elections to resolve deadlock.

Diaspora voters, accounting for around 10% of votes in the presidential elections, will continue to split their options between the far-right and liberal or progressive new parties, but they will influence less the final results as their only elect 6 MPs & they need to demonstrate residency abroad.

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New progressive force. Socially liberal voters with leftist economic views have had no party, but two alternatives have emerged recently (SENS & REPER). One of them may clear the 5% electoral threshold with SENS being more likely, having contributed to the election of the first Romanian Green MEP.

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Benefiting from their president Lasconi’s unexpected success in the 1st round of presid. elections, the liberal USR could emerge as the main centre-right party ahead of PNL. The Constitutional Court’s decision to ask for a full recount of the presid. election vote will mobilise their voters.

An increased number of far-right MPs. Mainly from the Alliance for Union of Romanians (ECR member), which could become the 2nd largest party, but also SOS Romania & Young People’s Party (POT) which are closer to Georgescu in their extremist views and usage of overt pro-Russian and anti-EU rhetoric.

Substantial realignment. While the protest vote against the 2 parties is likely to continue at the parliam. elections, their leaders’ resignations might limit losses. Bandwagon effects from the shocking 1st round of presidential elections are expected both for far-right parties and for the USR.

Mihail Chiru @mihailchiru.bsky.social · 14/11/2024

The results of the first round of the Romanian presidential election were shocking. For the first time since 1989, neither of the candidates from the two largest parties qualified for the run-off and an ultra-nationalist won. What to expect from the parliamentary elections taking place tomorrow?

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Agreed. Somewhat related, I keep looking at that directory and hoping to free ride on someone putting together an Eastern European politics scholars starter pack.

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Reposted by Mihail Chiru

Tom Ashbyトムアシュビー @tomaashby.bsky.social · 12/11/2024

Looking for people to follow? Find here a directory of almost 6500 starter packs & growing. Very useful, do share! blueskydirectory.com/starter-pack...

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All - Bluesky Directory

A curated collection of all things relating to the Blue Sky social media platform.

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Normatively, such actions might be seen as a hijacking of direct democracy for partisan gains, even less justified when a party is represented in Parliament. On the positive side, they can enable passage of bills for which there is popular support, but opposition from mainstream parties.

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The positive outcome appears to have been favoured by an electoral campaign which clearly reused messages from the citizen initiative campaign and a situation in which the main issue promoted by the initiative remained salient on the public agenda at the time of elections.

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We show that an increase in turnout levels took place in localities with signature collection points & present individual-level data suggesting that the initiative likely contributed to core voter mobilization. The share of signatures in locality is a strong predictor of USR vote

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The initiative, “No Convicts in Public Office!” was part of USR’s ownership claim over the issue of anti-corruption. Our matched diff-in-diff design corroborates the positive impact of the initiative on USR’s results at the 2019 European Parliament elections & 2020 national elections

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Our case study focuses on a citizen legislative initiative sponsored by the Save Romania Union (USR). This amounts to a typical case as most party-sponsored citizen legislative initiatives are launched by opposition parties, which are relatively small and often new

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