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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11h

GFS has a tropical system in the Gulf October 27th. Still a long ways to go, but if it at all comes to fruition, it could possibly complicate Halloween and/or the Midterms by November 3rd. ICON has a system a little earlier, in the SW Gulf, by 10/20.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 19h

It's everyday bro with that cringy MAGA gloat.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 19h

Fun fact: If just following the current early vote numbers, the most republican county that has a Dem lead in it in Florida is either Liberty County (currently -1 Dem) or Jackson County (+15). GOP won Liberty by 82.8% in '24, while Jackson County was won by 73%.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 20h

Has he not looked in the mirror?

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 21h

Very true. Dems would have to basically continue with these types of gains, plus a little more to just get over 60, let alone getting to 67, which Obama couldn’t even do. Basically would have to have an LBJ/FDR like tsunami for that to happen.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 22h

FL Midterm Results as of now (since 10/12): 6.8% in Statewide: Dems: 52.85% ↓ GOP: 47.15% ↑ St. Johns: Dems: 43.3% GOP: 39% ↓

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 22h

The Economist moves Idaho back to Likely R rating for the Senate.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 22h

R+10: Montana (9%) R+10: Nebraska (20%) R+8: Kansas (35%) R+8: South Carolina (30%) R+5: Florida (23%) FLIPS: AK, TX, OH, NC, ME, IA (+6, 54-46)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 22h

Early Vote Results if Midterms Were Today (10/12) FLIPS (Dems leading) IA: 61.5-22.6 ↓ KY: 57.7-33.9% ↓ ME: 55.1-18.6% OK: 46.7-41.9% ↓ NE: 46.1-36.8% NC: 44.7-16.7% ↓ FL: 43-36% STAY (GOP hold): WY, ID, SD

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 22h

VoteHub Current Tossup Midterm Results [Senate] (10/12): Vote Share (highest probability of flipping): NC: 76.3% Cooper ↓ IA: 75.7% Turek (new) ME: 70.7% Jackson (new) NE: 67.6% Osborn (new) AK: 67% Peltola ↑ FL: 63.7% Nixon OH: 60.8% Brown ↑

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Happy 534 years since the founding of the Americas!

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

ICON continues to develop a weak tropical system in the SW Gulf around 10/19. Would form the day after the cool temps (of 66) pass FL. Would then expect this system to move NE over time.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

Invest 96W has formed with winds of 17mph and pressure of 1009mb. It is headed towards the vicinity of Guam. No track available as of now.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 12/10/2026

It's official, Nolo has now ended its extremely long run as a tropical system, forming off the coast of Mexico September 13th, heading through the East, Central and West Pacific Oceans, finally ending its run next to Japan. In terms of longitude, this is the longest I've seen. RIP 9/13 to 10/11

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

10/19: AR, TX, ID, NE, ND, CT, CO, FL, GA, KS, MT, SC, AK 10/20: WI, MI, MO, HI, UT 10/21: WV 10/22: MD 10/23: DE 10/24: NY, NJ 10/28: OK 10/29: KY 11/3: MIDTERMS

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

549 hours remain until the Midterms. -BALLOTS OUT IN ALL STATES EXCEPT- UT (10/13), HI, OR & WA (10/16) -EARLY VOTING IN-PERSON- CA, IN, OH, NM, WY, AZ, CO --AWAITING IN-PERSON VOTING-- 10/13: UT 10/14: IA, RI, TN 10/15: NC 10/16: LA, OR, WA 10/17: MA, NV

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Trump disapproval compared to other Presidents: Trump overtakes himself after Insurrection. W. Bush: 71% (10/10/08) Truman: 67% (1/6/52) Nixon: 66% (8/5/74) Trump 2: 62% (+1.3) (today)* *FiftyPlusOne

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Reposted by Matthew Wheeler

VoteHub @votehub.com · 11/10/2026

A bipartisan effort is underway in Congress to prevent a potential constitutional crisis following the midterm elections. Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Don Bacon (R-NE) are urging lawmakers to pledge not to block the seating of duly elected House members, per @washingtonpost.com.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

First time I've ever seen spaghetti models going through California, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota & Canada!

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

0z ICON has a developing tropical cyclone all the way in the western Gulf, awaiting a front to pick it up. This shows that the cold front that may bring us colder temps actually misses us in NEFL a little bit, therefore misses taking the cyclone with it. GFS absolutely blocks everything. Low of 45!

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 10/10/2026

We expect every Democratic Senate candidate except for Troy Jackson to outperform Kamala Harris’ 2024 margin, with the median Democrat doing 11.2 points better.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

Looking at the models, we'd get a really nice cold front in return... BRING IT ON!

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Bernie planning 4 rallies with Nixon in Florida

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

ICON shows both a tropical storm and a decent cold front sweeping through the south by next Sunday. It's so strong, it pushes the system southeast! GFS has lows as low as 48 and that same system barely east of the Keys.

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VoteHub @votehub.com · 10/10/2026

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT), a potential 2028 contender, warns Dems not to “sleep on Florida,” pledging to fundraise for Angie Nixon. He’ll also campaign in MI and NH, two early primary states, per @politico.com. FL had more delegates in 2024 than the first four early states combined.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

VoteHub Current Tossup Midterm Results [Senate] (10/9): Vote Share (highest probability): NC: 76.9% Cooper [FLIP] ↓ AK: 65% Peltola [FLIP] FL: 63.7% Nixon [FLIP] ↓ OH: 59.4% Brown [FLIP] ↓

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Early Vote Results if Midterms Were Today (10/9) FLIPS (Dems leading) IA: 62.4-22.8 (new) KY: 58.1-33.7% ↓ ME: 55.1-18.6% ↓ OK: 47.1-41.7% ↓ NE: 46.1-36.8% ↓ NC: 44.9-16.5% ↓ FL: 43-35.9% ↓ STAY (GOP hold): WY: 71.3-20.8% ↑ ID: 55.3-24.8% SD: 50.8-32.7% ↑

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

FL Midterm Results as of now (since 10/9): 6.3% in Statewide: Dems: 52.92% ↑ GOP: 47% ↑ St. Johns: Dems: 43.3% ↓ GOP: 39.1% ↑

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Next weather worries for NEFL: ICON shows a weak tropical system enter the Gulf heading towards TX, but would likely be immediately pushed east as that same cold front would possibly bring temps into the low 50's to NEFL. Will be watching. Would be next weekend.

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AZ Intel @azintel.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

BREAKING: Hurricane Isaias makes landfall near Destin, Florida.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

Will do belated vote count numbers once Isaias passes, landfall shortly.

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AZ Intel @azintel.bsky.social · 10/10/2026

NWS warns of life-threatening situation as Hurricane Isaias prompts extreme wind warning for more than 582,000 people along Florida’s Gulf Coast.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Isaias now up to 105mph, and now expected to be a major hurricane shortly.

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Prof. Eliot Jacobson @climatecasino.net · 08/10/2026

The latest CFSv2 plume for El Niño as of October 7th shows that this El Niño has about a 90% chance to persist into May, 2027 And I don't understand how any model run could show less than 3.4°C for November, unless some magic unicorn comes along.

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Climatologist49 @climatologist49.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This would move public opinion quite dramatically against the death penalty. There is a reason that states do not broadcast their executions. They know that public sentiment would quickly shift.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

FL Midterm Results as of now (since 10/8): 5.5% in Statewide: Dems: 52.9% ↓ GOP: 46.9% ↑ St. Johns: Dems: 43.5% ↓ GOP: 38.6% ↑

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Early Vote Results if Midterms Were Today (10/8) FLIPS (Dems leading) KY: 58.4-33.5% ME: 57.1-17.4% OK: 47.8-40.9% NE: 46.3-36.5% NC: 45.1-16.4% FL: 43.4-35.4% STAY (GOP hold): WY: 71.1-21% ID: 55.3-24.8% SD: 50.7-32.9%

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Isaias now up to 100mph, a moderate Category 2 hurricane.

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

VoteHub Current Tossup Midterm Results [Senate] (10/8): Vote Share (highest probability): NC: 77.1% Cooper [FLIP] ↑ AK: 65% Peltola [FLIP] FL: 64.3% Nixon [FLIP] ↑ OH: 59.9% Brown [FLIP] ↓

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

R+10: Montana (9%) R+10: Nebraska (20%) ↑R+8: Kansas (35%) [+2] ↑R+8: South Carolina (30%) [+1] R+5: Florida (23%) FLIPS: AK, TX, OH, NC, ME, IA (+6, 54-46)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

DDHQ probability Dem/Ind wins (10/8) KS next to flip. R+23: Wyoming (1%) R+21: West Virginia (>1%) R+18: Idaho (3%) R+17: Oklahoma (2%) R+15: Alabama (5%) R+15: Arkansas (4%) R+15: Kentucky (5%) ↑R+15: South Dakota (3%) [+1] R+14: Tennessee (3%) R+11: Louisiana (11%) R+11: Mississippi (7%)

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Matthew Wheeler @mattlennial.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Overall top 5 longest Dem droughts: (year of next election for seat) [percentage to win seat according to DDHQ '26/Kalshi '28] 1913: Kansas (2026) [35%] ↑ 1932: Kansas (2028) [32%] 1948: Idaho (2026) [3%] 1954: South Carolina/Wyoming (2026) [30%/1%] ↑ ✅ 1960: Texas (2026) [58%]

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