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Matt Grossmann

@mattgrossmann.bsky.social
12K followers 171 following 1.8K posts

Michigan State political scientist & IPPSR Director; Hooked bookstore/cafe Co-owner; Science of Politics Podcast; New book: Polarized by Degrees

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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Dan Garisto @dangaristo.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
NEW: In March the White House released an FY27 budget request that zeroed out the National Science Foundation's directorate of Social, Behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE). For months it was unclear what would happen. Now, with FY26 over, the damage to SBE is coming to light. My reporting:
science.org
‘Complete devastation’: How NSF gutted its social sciences research
Agency body that funds sociology, linguistics, and archaeology studies in U.S. gave 90% fewer new grants this year
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
E.J. Fagan @ejfagan.com · 06/10/2026
I went a little crazy and modeled every statehouse this way: claude.ai/code/artifac...
claude.ai
2026 Statehouse Tracker
2026 Statehouse Tracker
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Eg a uniform 12 point margin shift would produce a 63–47 D House & 23–15 Senate in Michigan & a D 53-46 Assembly & D 18-15 Senate in Wisconsin. Even in gerrymandered NC, Dems would win House 64-56 & lose Senate 26-24
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Like national race forecasters, analysts of state legislative races are relatively timid in seeing opportunities for wave election pickups. But if the generic ballot shifts 12 points, with both differential partisan turnout & a large swing, it suggests many unexpected pickups
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Macropartisanship has also shifted dramatically in Democrats' direction: 50-39 news.gallup.com/poll/654560/...
news.gallup.com
Quarterly Party Affiliation
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent? (Asked of independents: As of today, do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?)
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
The shift in the generic ballot against the president's party continues. Although consistent with the historic pace & direction, this should be close to the largest 2-year shift in generic ballot polling on record; see below for the averages since the 30s www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Democrats are overperforming in 5 states Trump won by double digits, with Senate candidates rated better & less extreme than the broader Democratic Party & than the Republican candidates www.nytimes.com/2026/10/03/u...
nytimes.com
Democrats May Have Found the Recipe for Flipping Red-State Senate Seats
Five new Times/Siena polls continue a run of strong results for the party in states that President Trump won easily in 2024.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Since 2000, the average college course description has more political content & more liberal slant. Changes are modest relative to persistent cross-field differences; student demand for liberal content rises over the 2010s & peaks in 2020 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
The Political Content of College Courses
We measure two dimensions of politics in college courses-the amount of political content and its partisan orientation-using course descriptions from nearly 1,00
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
women congressional candidates may be more ideologically extreme and are more likely to be punished for their ideological positions than men journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
journals.sagepub.com
Candidate Gender and District Ideological Alignment in U.S. Congressional Elections, 2002–2020 - Jordan Kujala, Danielle Joesten Martin, 2026
Candidate ideology impacts a wide range of electoral outcomes, but are there gendered differences in the effects of candidate ideology? Using a unique dataset o...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Americans (open-ended) evaluations of presidential candidates have increasingly emphasized personal qualities over policy; & respondents articulate fewer distinct criteria journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Bipartisan negotiated settlements remain an important path to policy change, often requiring a lot of behind-the-scenes work & working around elections & presidential involvement. Possible post-election action www.reuters.com/legal/litiga...
reuters.com
US senators hit deal on energy project permitting bill, vote seen after November
US senators from both parties said on Wednesday they have reached a deal to reform laws on the permitting of large energy and infrastructure ​projects, though a vote will not occur before the midterm ...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Vulnerable Members of Congress are LocalMaxing Facing tough re-elections, legislators spend more time at home & focus on local bills & serving constituents over national policy New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Jaclyn Kaslovsky www.niskanencenter.org/vulnerable-m...
niskanencenter.org
Vulnerable members of Congress localize - Niskanen Center
Many Members of Congress are electorally vulnerable this year. Do they have to moderate to survive?
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
I enjoyed Blockers, the new Michael Lewis book on DOGE. Again, the reporting at the time was mostly correct: it was haphazard & inexperienced efforts that degraded government without achieving savings. But most effects are long-term & harder to see. hookedlansing.com/book/9781324...
hookedlansing.com
Blockers: Rebels in the Deep State
An inside look at the early days of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, as told by the public servants it targeted and one of America’s best storytellers. Blockers. It wasn’t a compliment. In...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
DOGE contract cuts were concentrated in counties that gave Trump less support in 2024 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
The Punitive Dimension of Presidential Particularism | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
The Punitive Dimension of Presidential Particularism
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
We have the book cover for Policymaking for Realists! There may be time for small changes if you have them.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Ideological principle or outgroup attitudes? An experimental analysis of cross-pressures, social dominance orientation, and vote choice among white Americans www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Ideological principle or outgroup attitudes? An experimental analysis of cross-pressures, social dominance orientation, and vote choice among white Americans
How does the mass public resolve a cross-pressure when it is along the dimensions of ideological identity and outgroup attitudes? While previous literature has examined the power of these attachmen...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
when fertility has fallen low, it has tended to keep falling. there is no robust evidence for fertility rebound, or for a stable equilibrium point www.nber.org/papers/w35824
nber.org
Does Fertility Stabilize At Low Levels? Evidence from Period, Cohort, and Subnational Data
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
I continue to believe the pocket rescission reform can form the basis of a successful bipartisan bill to address presidential power grabs, though probably not until a Democratic president. www.nytimes.com/2026/09/25/u...
nytimes.com
Trump Proposes $810 Million in Education and Health Cuts, Defying Congress
The attempted clawback represents the second time in as many years that the White House has sought to cancel funding approved by lawmakers.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Dems own health care & thus usually get blamed for Obamacare failures even if product of Rep decisions: www.niskanencenter.org/why-rural-ar... But telling 760,000 people they will lose coverage right before election might be closer to traceable 2016 price hike: www.niskanencenter.org/how-medicaid...
niskanencenter.org
Why rural areas vote Republican despite worse health outcomes - Niskanen Center
Rural areas disproportionately suffer from Republican policies but Republicans can blame Democrats for worse health outcomes, especially when policies can be framed as helping immigrants or racial min...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Doesn't do much but Congress just passed the American Music Tourism Act in voice & unanimous votes to promote domestic & international travel to festivals & music history sites. A sign of acceptance of the festival economy, a generation from Woodstock 99 & from the rave act
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Institute of Public Utilities at Michigan State University @ipu-msu.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
IPU partnered with the MSU Institute for Public Policy and Social Research for yesterday's policy forum The Data on Data Centers. Panelists included MSU professors @jeanhardy.bsky.social, Dong Zhao, and IPU Director @eriknordman.bsky.social. Thanks to @mattgrossmann.bsky.social and team for hosting.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Democrats have declined in areas just outside city limits, suggesting that partisan sorting is related not only to a city’s demographic & socioeconomic characteristics but also to its taxation and expenditures www.emerald.com/jpipe/articl...
emerald.com
City limits and partisan sorting
To what extent does variation in access to local governance explain partisan sorting in the USA? Prior research shows that voters do not sort into neighborhoods based on partisan concerns alone. Howev...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
AI is explicitly and implicitly associated with Whiteness across diverse samples psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...
psycnet.apa.org
APA PsycNet
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Despite denialism & election threats, decentralized, evidence-based election administration should still deliver lawful winners in 2026 academic.oup.com/psq/advance-...
academic.oup.com
The Day After: Threats and Guardrails in the 2026 Election
Abstract. The 2026 election will be conducted under extraordinary pressure because political actors aligned with the Trump Administration are attempting to
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Trump's unpopularity, rising costs, & the midterm penalty make Republican loss of one or both chambers; despite threats, turnout should be high & election administration should be good: academic.oup.com/HTTPHandlers...
academic.oup.com
Normal Politics Under Stress: The 2026 Midterm Elections and Constraints on Presidential Power
This essay presents my expectations for the 2026 midterm elections. Despite anxieties over Trump's refusal to concede in 2020, mid-cycle redistricting, and
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Most AGI predictions have historically been unfalsifiable; two early predications were wrong & most others remain open papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Do Boots and a Truck Make Candidates Republican? candidates can use cultural signals to show loyalties; voters intuit partisanship but rely more on partisan & policy information when available New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Levi Allen www.niskanencenter.org/do-boots-and...
niskanencenter.org
Do boots and a truck make candidates Republican? - Niskanen Center
Levi Allen finds that voters can intuit partisanship from symbols like cowboy boots and a truck but rely more on partisan and policy information when it is available.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
internet diffusion is associated with national declines in religiosity academic.oup.com/socrel/advan...
academic.oup.com
Internet Diffusion and Religious Decline: Evidence from 81 Countries, 1990–2022
Abstract. Using a panel of 81 countries across six World Values Survey waves (1990–2022), we examine whether growth in internet diffusion is associated wit
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
workers in hazardous occupations are more conservative & grow more conservative over time academic.oup.com/HTTPHandlers...
academic.oup.com
Occupational hazard and political segregation in the US labor market
Abstract. The tendency for liberals and conservatives to cluster in different occupations significantly impacts society, yet the factors that contribute to
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
American liberals and conservatives have different cognitive styles, but (mostly) respond the same to party cues www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Democratic House gain expectations vary widely, with seat-by-seat ratings implying much more limited gains (treating toss-ups as truly 50/50) compared to model projections
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
State governors shift voters’ partisan alignment toward their own party, concentrated among those aged 6-17 during a governor’s tenure (especially for popular, powerful governors) cepr.org/publications...
cepr.org
DP21907 Hey, Governors, Leave Them Kids Alone: Political Influence During Childhood
We study the role of officeholders in the formation of political preferences during childhood. Leveraging data on 200 million registered voters and a regression discontinuity design based on U.S. gube...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
congressional rhetoric has become more partisan & negative as social media usage has increased; partisanship & negativity get more positive engagement on social media vs. credit claiming or constituency service www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Measuring Partisanship and Representation in Online Congressional Communications | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
Measuring Partisanship and Representation in Online Congressional Communications
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
I officially have a new side project. I am working on a book called The Raver's Guide: Inside the U.S. Electronic Dance Music Scene. It will take a while but is now under contract with Bloomsbury, Backbeat Books www.mattg.org/project-rave...
mattg.org
The Raver's Guide | Matt Grossmann — Matt Grossmann
Explore the history and culture of the US electronic dance music scene with The Raver's Guide, offering insights, practical tips, and a comprehensive overview for enthusiasts and newcomers.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Many podcasts are gender-coded & correlated with political content, even if ostensibly non-political; Trump targeted masculine podcasts; there was an association between exposure to Rogan & Trump vote (even accounting for party & prior vote): papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
papers.ssrn.com
Did Podcasts Help Trump Win Young Men? Gendered Media Spaces and Gender Gaps
In the 2024 election, the gender gap among young voters widened sharply. To examine the role of podcasts in this pattern, we combine two survey datasets with th
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Trump elections did stand out for greater focus on cultural issues relative to economic issues, especially 2024. Dem campaigns of the 90s & 00s stood out for their economic emphasis. www.proquest.com/docview/3381...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Citizens accept some ineligible access to social programs in order to provide full access for the eligible, but most weigh a trade-off. republicans accept less fraud for wider access onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Administrative Burden and the Access–Fraud Trade‐Off
Administrative burden represents political choices embedded in policy design that affect how people perceive and experience government. While policymakers frequently invoke fraud prevention to justif...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Does it suggest that social science will now be more helpful in AI research & alignment? Or is it a sign that our theories also overstate the role of individual differences? Do any theories of social evolution or emergence predict hugging face attack style behavior?
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
Does the ubiquity of collectively-directed motivated reasoning in AI agents suggest that these are emergent properties of language-based interaction (rather than specific to human psychology) or just that they were trained on human behavior?
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
The Democratic Party has moved away from predistributive (but not redistributive) policy since the 1980s in response to educated individual donors & corporate PACs, helping to fuel the education divide among voters: nicolaslonguetmarx.github.io/qjag019.pdf
nicolaslonguetmarx.github.io
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Reposted by Matt Grossmann
Seth Masket @smotus.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
I was truly honored by this august author-meets-critics APSA panel for "Elephants in the Room." I met my critics and they were pretty cool. Thank you so much @dandrezner.bsky.social @mattgrossmann.bsky.social, Kate Krimmel, Jasmine Smith, and @juliaazari.bsky.social!
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Why neither party is fiscally responsible Despite huge U.S. debt, both parties still introduce bills that increase spending & vote to expand the deficit. Republicans just cast more show votes New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Derek Epp www.niskanencenter.org/why-neither-...
niskanencenter.org
Why neither party is fiscally responsible - Niskanen Center
Headlines showed U.S. debt passing the $40 trillion mark and bond market jitters. But addressing the debt’s quick rise is not a top priority for either party. Were they ever fiscally responsible or we...
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Our new Michigan survey has 55% of likely voters saying a Trump endorsement makes them less likely to support a candidate (vs. 27% more likely). That is hard for Republicans to overcome. ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-pol...
ippsr.msu.edu
MSU Poll Shows Democrats Lead, Republicans Coalesce Behind Rogers | Institute for Public Policy and Social Research
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I will also be pitching my next planned book with Dave Hopkins, currently called "Culture Wars Everywhere: The Politics of American Popular Culture" matthewg.org/CultureWars4...
matthewg.org
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
& in my chapter, I show that debates over majority party congressional priorities have grown more salient over time. But majority parties are more successful with their less salient priorities. The polarized age makes the secret Congress harder but no less important.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Elephants in the Room is quite relevant for anticipating 2028. Republican leaners did not uniformly want Trump in 2024; they were pushed by voters. & their inability to push back on 2020 election fraud claims meant their electability concerns fell on deaf ears.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Across 89 democracies since WWII, we find that parties of the executive lose 3.5 points in legislative vote share in the next election. The global cost of ruling is not dependent on type of government, concurrence, or prior share. But it grows with time since the last election.
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
I hope to see many in Boston for the American Political Science Association meeting. You can see our paper, "How Global is Midterm Loss?" Th at 11:30, me as a 'critic' of "The Elephants in the Room" Fr at 4, or my chapter "Policymaking: More Salient but Less Successful" Sat at 4
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Across countries, in-party discussions consistently increase both partisan affinity & out-party animosity, which leads to even less out-party discussion. Out-party discussions rarely reduce out-party animosity. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Democratic backsliding is associated with deterioration in public administration by reducing the external costs of poor performance & eroding meritocratic recruitment & bureaucratic impartiality onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
onlinelibrary.wiley.com
<em>Public Administration Review</em> | ASPA Journal | Wiley Online Library
Democratic backsliding has emerged as a defining political challenge of the contemporary era, yet systematic cross-national evidence linking it to governance outcomes remains scarce. This article arg...
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