iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

We are starting a Policy Entrepreneurship program (as a grad student working group to start) next semester. See below for the outline. If you have done anything similar and have advice, please share.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Voters living near data centers are moving further toward Democrats economist.com/graphic-deta...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

On Monday, we are hosting an event for students at MSU on the state constitutional convention vote. We are experimenting with formats to try to generate dialogue across political lines: ippsr.msu.edu/constitution...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

All MSU programs also meet the earnings threshold, though there is again wide variation in earnings. The nationwide averages by major show similar rankings, with political science 26/61 widely offered majors.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

It looks like every political science degree program will meet the education department earnings threshold www.theheagroup.com/blog/earning...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

The shift in the generic ballot against the president's party continues. Although consistent with the historic pace & direction, this should be close to the largest 2-year shift in generic ballot polling on record; see below for the averages since the 30s www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ba...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Americans (open-ended) evaluations of presidential candidates have increasingly emphasized personal qualities over policy; & respondents articulate fewer distinct criteria journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

We have the book cover for Policymaking for Realists! There may be time for small changes if you have them.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Democratic House gain expectations vary widely, with seat-by-seat ratings implying much more limited gains (treating toss-ups as truly 50/50) compared to model projections

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Trump elections did stand out for greater focus on cultural issues relative to economic issues, especially 2024. Dem campaigns of the 90s & 00s stood out for their economic emphasis. www.proquest.com/docview/3381...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Some funny signs of the possible Republican pac promoting the left candidates: 1) they label it "the liberal Michigan team" 2) they can't help but use terrible photos of Rashida & Ro

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 03/07/2026

Americans explain their party identification & their animosity toward the other party mostly by invoking policy, values, & ideology, rather than disdain, socialization, specific actors, or performance, & did so more than scholars of partisanship expected academic.oup.com/poq/advance-...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 02/07/2026

Roosevelt Institute Dems are planning (or wish-casting) a lot of liberal executive action under next Dem president, thinking Trump opens way. Some will be tried. But evidence from Biden admin suggests court enabling is asymmetric & efforts won't last or be effective www.notus.org/perspectives...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 04/05/2026

Gilens' data shows responsiveness to low-income public opinion for both issues where affluent favor change more & less. Seeming lack of responsiveness is due to a higher rate of policy change when the rich favor more Article: sociologicalscience.com/articles-v13... Post: medium.com/3streams/one...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

Majority parties of the president lose generic ballot support as midterms approach, especially at the end. It responds to falling prez approval & thermostatic public opinion. Backlash to the Iran War & immigration crackdowns will help Dems, but are consistent with normal cycle

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

V-Dem 2026 Democracy Report (US decline p33-39): www.v-dem.net/publications... Datasets & codebook: www.v-dem.net/data/the-v-d... Main declines in legislative constraints, civil rights, & freedom of expression. Here is codex on indicator subjectivity & sensitivity to GOP congress control:

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

The Berkeley talk is (next) Friday at noon & the sign-up is here: www.eventbrite.com/e/policymaki...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/03/2026

The Miami talk is Monday 3/30 at 6:30pm & the sign-up is here: events.miami.edu/event/policy...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 16/03/2026

Candidates get more support by moving to the middle of voters' ideological spectrum, but that may not mean the middle among elites. Democrats benefit by moderating most where the public is more conservative, Republicans where the public is more liberal osf.io/preprints/so...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

The 5th edition of Campaigns & Elections (or 9th if you count the midterm updates) is ready for Fall course adoption & review: wwnorton.com/books/978132...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

I (well codex) tried to update the @adambonica.bsky.social spreadsheet of announced DOGE layoffs (showing that they were at liberal agencies) with the actual employment changes at federal agencies. There is still a relationship, though there were also unannounced cuts at conservative agencies.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

Despite cutting lots of federal staff, Trump did not get the spending cuts he requested from Congress: www.nytimes.com/2026/02/17/u...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 04/02/2026

immigration executive actions have increased over time, primarily through proclamations where presidents publicize their immigration policy agendas journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 22/01/2026

Political science journal articles increasingly reference journal articles more than books, across subfields, as total citations increase www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 20/11/2025

Dems gain in generic ballot polls, moving toward large seat gains in historical models Current polls: polls.decisiondeskhq.com/averages/gen... Historical models: centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Democrats improved most in elections where turnout dropped the most & in Hispanic areas x.com/theeconomist...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 02/11/2025

cultural over economic coverage on cable news mobilizes viewers who would otherwise watch entertainment programming, so cable news emphasizes cultural politics much more than politicians trying to maximize vote share www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/27v4x...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

Studying social sciences & humanities makes students more left-leaning, controlling for initial views & major preference, driven by cultural views. Implies that if all students majored in business, college–noncollege ideological gap would shrink by 1/3 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 31/10/2025

Union members have polarized by education level, with non-college members now less affected by their union membership. Union members have maintained their Democratic partisanship only by becoming more educated over time journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/10/2025

Democrats still prefer that their leaders compromise, even under Trump news.gallup.com/poll/695690/...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

Companies are hiring many more internal policy specialists than lobbyists; it is a much larger investment in politics and internal expertise www.andrewbenjaminhall.com/HallSun25.pdf

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 07/10/2025

There is increasing political polarization in colleges' student bodies. Both liberal & conservative students prefer institutions with more like-minded peers and are willing to pay thousands of dollars more to avoid students from the other side edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1280

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Join us in person in DC or online for a live edition of the Science of Politics podcast with @mattyglesias.bsky.social & Steven Teles on whether & how the Democratic Party will revive. Thursday, 9/25 at 9am

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 29/08/2025

Partisan defections & vote switching continued to decline in 2024 as negative partisanship continued preprints.apsanet.org/engage/api-g...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

Republican Members of Congress are no longer coming from elite institutions of higher education. Elite-educated legislators are more liberal. Important manifestation of the education divide between the parties & context for the current higher ed wars www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 27/08/2025

2024 non-voters also supported Trump, marking the first time in recent elections they have favored the Republican candidate, but they also supported Democratic House candidates by a small margin goodauthority.org/news/trump-a...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 23/08/2025

AI use & coverage are growing quickly & recently across academic fields arxiv.org/pdf/2405.15828

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

But each re-run of the model changes the series fairly dramatically. Here is the 2022 version. The stepped leftward trajectory since the 1980s from 2022 is no longer evident. In the new measure, the US public was most liberal in the early 1960s & 1991.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 22/08/2025

Stimson updated policy mood, a measure of the public's overall liberal (higher) or conservative (lower) policy views; it shows no conservative move under Biden after a large liberal move under Trump stimson.web.unc.edu/data/

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 14/08/2025

Global welfare state expansion has moved to new areas like early childhood in recent decades, but changes in focus are more pronounced than a global rise & fall www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 02/08/2025

Texas redraw would give Republicans more of a national advantage in districting, but from a low point in their advantage relative to the last few decades (though it may matter more now that fewer candidates substantially outperform their party) www.nytimes.com/2025/08/02/u...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 21/07/2025

District courts are ruling against Trump administration, but not the Supreme Court data4democracy.substack.com/p/the-suprem...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 08/07/2025

Pew & Catalist disagree about the education divide by race, not only in 2024 but in prior elections. Pew shows earlier divides, so not as much continuation of the trend. Catalist shows extension to minority groups in 2024 & a slower build.

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 30/06/2025

Negative partisanship continued in 2024 goodauthority.org/news/america...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 13/06/2025

Popular ChatGPT keywords suggest AI use for writing political science academic articles www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

NSF has cut new grants by half so far this year (in addition to cancelling grants in progress). It's still unclear whether they will be forced to spend remaining appropriated funds quickly at the end of the fiscal year. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 26/05/2025

Empirical papers have steadily replaced theoretical papers (& simulation) in economics: www.economist.com/finance-and-...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 25/05/2025

Trump has gained ground in 3 consecutive elections across large parts of the nation, concentrated in the least educated, poorest, & most non-white counties. Democrats have gained consecutively in only a small set of mostly educated, rich, white counties: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 22/05/2025

The diploma divide extended to Latino, Asian, & other race voters in 2024 but is still not present among Black voters or as large as for white voters catalist.us/whathappened...

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Matt Grossmann @mattgrossmann.bsky.social · 11/05/2025

Political elites in both parties have higher trust in science than their voters; but Democratic elites & voters have higher trust than Republican elites & voters www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

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