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Matt Cerminaro

@mattcerminaro.bsky.social
849 followers 42 following 26 posts

Posts ≠ Financial Advice ➢ Opinions expressed are solely my own. chartkidmatt.com/subscribe

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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 07/02/2026
Equal Weight S&P 500 has outperformed Cap Weight by 4.2% through 2/7. That's the highest spread going back to 1992. 34 years. Incredible.
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
If I had one visual to explain what is happening in markets, it is this one. Mag7 breaking down relative to S&P 500. Small Caps breaking out relative to S&P 500. Could it be this simple?
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Market internals currently signal "risk-on" - 79% of Discretionary Sector Above 200D - Only 35% Of Staples Sector Above 200D The "spread" between the two is plotted below. 44% more Discretionary stocks above 200D. "Risk-on" stocks rising while "risk-off" falling = bullish.
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Total Returns Over Past Year: S&P Pure Value: +22% S&P Pure Growth: +16% Over 600 bps of outperformance in value stocks. Narrow market? This suggests otherwise. 👇
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 08/01/2026
I have never seen a day in the market like this.
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 10/12/2025
Wall Street's strategists are too cautious on the year ahead's stock market returns 70% of the time - @mattcerminaro.bsky.social chartkidmatt.com/p/25-years-o...
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Daily Chartbook @dailychartbook.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
"The black dots show where each sector’s forward P/E stood at the S&P 500’s 10/29 short-term peak. The grey dots show where they stood at the 11/20 short-term trough. Valuation compression in 8 of 10 sectors shown, but most notably in Tech." @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Google's forward PE looks like a meme stock. Nearly doubled off the low. 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
Five years ago in November of 2020, Ed @yardeniresearch.bsky.social coined the phrase “Roaring 2020’s" as his forecast for the decade. Good call. Ed stopped by tonight to lay out his case for S&P 500 10,000 by year-end. Real people on The Street listen to Ed. www.youtube.com/watch?v=wCki...
youtube.com
Roaring 2020’s Stock Market Rolls On Into ‘26 | WAYT?
YouTube video by The Compound
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Google is now more expensive than Nvidia. Look at the spread between their Forward P/E ratios. Wow. 👇
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 25/11/2025
Google is now more expensive than Nvidia. Look at the spread between their Forward P/E ratios. Wow. 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
for daily market insights from working, registered professionals, follow the whole Ritholtz Starter Pack here. We specialize in sane, reasonable investment commentary. May we meet you? bsky.app/start/did:pl...
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 24/11/2025
We haven’t had a meaningful bear market in nearly 20 years. You might think “surely, this must end soon.” Historically, you would be wrong about the *must* part. The length of a bull market doesn’t have to obey your feelings or mine. Chart @mattcerminaro.bsky.social via @bencarlson007.bsky.social
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Tadas Viskanta @abnormalreturns.bsky.social · 23/11/2025
🆓 Sunday links: how gambling became frictionless, falling homicide rates, and the best books of 2025. abnormalreturns.com/2025/11/23/s... image: awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/11/do-w...
abnormalreturns.com
Sunday links: frictionless gambling
November 23, 2025
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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
At what point do 7%+ mortgage rates and a lack of housing activity become a big problem for the economy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/01/is-t...
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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
The Best Books I Read in 2024 awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
awealthofcommonsense.com
The Best Books I Read in 2024 - A Wealth of Common Sense
My annual list of books read.
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 21/12/2024
We are seeing capitulatory, bear market low type oversold readings in the middle of a strong bull market. Look at this metric: - % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (yesterday): 31.5% - % S&P 500 with RSI below 30 (9/30/22) : 31.9% 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 18/12/2024
Can't lie we went crazy on the show tonight. Now live, let us know what you think www.youtube.com/watch?v=--l_...
youtube.com
Is Nvidia Under Siege in 2025? | WAYT?
YouTube video by The Compound
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Sam Ro @tker.co · 15/12/2024
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️ www.tker.co/p/valuations...
tker.co
A high P/E is not a stock market sell signal ⚠️
Plus a charted review of the macro crosscurrents 🔀
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s CIO of Global Fixed Income and Head of the Global Allocation Team, overseeing roughly $2.4T in assets. Just don’t call him a Bond King. Brand new epic edition of The Compound and Friends. We love you, Merry Christmas 🎄 podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/is...
podcasts.thecompoundnews.com
Is Rick Rieder a Bond King?
On episode 169 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Rick Rieder , Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income and …
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
🐂The avg bull market has 8 5% pullbacks. 👉 We have had 5 in the current bull run. Meaning, it would be normal if we saw several more pullbacks before this bull market ends. 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
It's Forecast SZN on Wall Street and every firm has their S&P 500 target for 2025. Strategists are expecting a gain of somewhere between 7% and 17%. But allow me to blow your mind: The average gain for stocks in an up year over the last hundred years is actually +21%! @bencarlson007.bsky.social
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 11/12/2024
This one is interesting. - Blue bars are sector returns YTD - Red dots are avg return of stock within sector - Bottom shows over/under performance of the average stock vs its sector. The best sectors YTD also have their average stocks underperforming sharply. 👇
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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The 4 types of investment mistakes: 1. Annoying mistakes (investing in underperforming funds) 2. Self-inflicted mistakes (high fees, over-trading, etc) 3. Painful mistakes (sell at the bottom of a bear market) 4. Endgame mistakes (fraud, losing it all) awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/12/the-...
awealthofcommonsense.com
The 4 Types of Investment Mistakes - A Wealth of Common Sense
The hierarchy of investment mistakes.
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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Five charts you need to see for 2025 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1️⃣ The S&P 500 has gained 20%+ for two straight years Three 20%+ years hasn't happened outside of the 1990 But are stocks doomed? Not necessarily. Big gains happen more often than you think.
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
The NASDAQ is -0.50% today. But the internals paint a rosier picture. - 55% of stocks are advancing in the index. Not as "risk off" within. 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
Why did BlackRock spend $12 billion to acquire a private equity firm last week? I can explain it in a single chart. If you were the CEO of a large asset management firm, you would do the same thing. via Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
NEW🚨: Ben with Benefits by @bencarlson007.bsky.social Highly recommend giving this a listen 🎧 👇 youtu.be/oqzryxsLp64?...
youtu.be
Advisors Face an $80 Trillion Tidal Wave as 10,000 Clients Retire Every Day
YouTube video by The Unlock
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 06/12/2024
Peter Boockvar on The Compound and Friends today! Contrarian investing ideas from one of my favorite people on Wall Street podcasts.thecompoundnews.com/show/TCAF/th...
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
Everybody tells us the "market is narrow" That's just not true. I brought the data. In 2H 2024: - The S&P 500 is +11.8% - But the average S&P 500 stock is +13.7% So the average stock is outperforming the index in 2H by 2%. Next time you hear the "narrow market" narrative, reference this. 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
The reason we are less susceptible to recession when rates rise in the modern era is because we’re a services economy. Which means inventory back-ups don’t result in mass layoffs anymore. Manufacturing has fallen from 20% to 10% of US GDP over the last 50 years. @mattcerminaro.bsky.social:
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 02/12/2024
One of my favorite investing quotes comes form Art Cashin. RIP 🙏 cnbc.com/2009/10/22/a... 👇
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Jack Raines @jackraines.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
On traveling while you're young, and other musings: www.youngmoney.co/p/advice-22y...
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation. 8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year. 👇
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
The stock market is now the driving force behind inflation. Hilarious given that the stock market has been rallying because inflation has come down. You can’t make this up 😂
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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Consumer confidence is surging at a peculiar time Yes, the economy is under a lot of pressure and rates are high across the board, but some combo of Fed cuts/politics/momentum has suddenly made Americans more optimistic about the future...
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner in 2023 vs 2024 according to data from The American Farm Bureau Federation. 8/12 categories cheaper this year vs last year. 👇
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
The breakout in equities is supported by strong breadth. - New high in S&P 500 price - New high in S&P 500 breadth No divergence there. ✅ for bulls. 👇
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Michael Batnick @michaelbatnick.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Michael Saylor when MSTR's market cap hits $47 trillion.
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 26/11/2024
Q3 Earnings Season is now in the books. It was epic and justified the rally that began in September. Chart Kid @mattcerminaro.bsky.social: Profits for S&P 500 companies grew 9% YoY (476bps above estimates), 75% of companies beat, sales up 5.7%, 8 of 11 sectors posted higher profits over 2023.
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Sam Ro @tker.co · 25/11/2024
and you thought the U.S. stock market was concentrated
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
These are sector total returns YTD. 4 Sectors +30% YTD. Financials leading the pack. The "it's all the Mag7" narrative is dead. 👇
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Matt Cerminaro @mattcerminaro.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
I did this one for @bencarlson007.bsky.social a few weeks back showing the difference between S&P 500 price (left) vs S&P 500 forward P/E (right). ➡️Stocks continue to hit new cycle highs ➡️While valuations remains below cycle highs. Bottom line: Stocks are cheaper now vs 2020. 👇
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Sam Ro @tker.co · 25/11/2024
Prelim roundup of Wall Street's S&P 500 2025 year-end targets: 6,000: Jefferies 6,400: UBS 6,500: Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs 6,586: CFRA 6,600: RBC, Barclays 6,700: BMO 6,500-6,700: Wells Fargo Inv Institute 7,000: Yardeni, CapEcon, Deutsche Bank
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth fund just announced a take-private of the third largest RIA in America. This should be an interesting convo for the advisors there. Oh, $8.6 billion (ALL CASH) is a lotta money. Congrats to the Canadian PE firm owner, nice trade. www.investmentnews.com/rias/ci-fina...
investmentnews.com
CI Financial agrees to take-private deal valuing firm at $12.1B
The financial giant once known for its aggressive US acquisition strategy is now being snapped up by a Middle Eastern sovereign wealth manager.
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Downtown Josh Brown @downtownjoshbrown.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
Scenes From a Regional Branch at $97,000 www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/scenes-fro...
downtownjoshbrown.com
Scenes From a Regional Branch at $97,000
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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
“Of the 11 items on the Farm Bureau’s menu, seven cost less than last year ..” @barrons.bsky.social #deflation 🦃 www.barrons.com/articles/tha...
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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/11/2024
I sold a chunk of my Bitcoin holdings at around $99k I’ll sell some more if it goes higher I have my reasons: awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/11/why-...
awealthofcommonsense.com
Why I'm Selling Some Bitcoin - A Wealth of Common Sense
Why I'm selling half of my Bitcoin position.
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Callie Cox @calliecox.bsky.social · 24/11/2024
My first chart on Bluesky (and a sneaky peaky of what you'll get in tomorrow's OptimistiCallie 👀) Break out the buy vs. rent calculation according to how many hours it takes to afford each option, and you'll see it's the most expensive time to buy since the mid-2000s.
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