iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19h

Nike is now back to 2013 price levels 81% off the highs It feels like a piece of my youth is dying with this stock price

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The Agg dates back to 1976 On an inflation-adjusted basis this cycle is the first time in history bonds had negative 10 year real return This is the most brutal bond market of all-time b/c: 1. Rates were too low 2. They rose too fast 3. Inflation awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/a-br...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

End of February right before the war started: Inflation 2.4% 10 year Treasury 3.9% Mortgage Rates 6% Oil $67 Gas $3.10 Now: Inflation 3.4% 10 year Treasury 5.2% Mortgage Rates 7.6% Oil $90 Gas $4.43

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

The day before the Iran war started mortgage rates were 5.99% Now they're 7.58%

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Animal Spirits: Will Higher Rates Kill the Stock Market? Rates are ripping Why isn't the stock market going down? Bond yields are attractive The wealth effect is real When will housing bottom? AI personal assistants The best TV shows & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

The S&P 500 is up ~13% YTD Just 35% of stocks are outperforming the S&P 40% of stocks are down on the year One-quarter of S&P 500 companies are down 10% or worse in 2026 Most stocks are losers awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/most...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

10 year Treasury yields bottomed in March 2020 at 0.5% They're now at 5.2% During this period of rapidly rising interest rates the S&P 500 is up 18.8% annualized High rates + high inflation and we still got ~15% real annual returns Strange times awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/stra...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I know all the film geeks love Michael Clayton but this is actually George Clooney’s best serious movie performance (I might be on an island w/this take but I’m ok w/that)

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

There's a narrative that public market investors are missing out b/c so many companies are staying private for longer Over the past 15 years the Nasdaq 100 is up 20% per year How many VC funds beat that bogey? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/can-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

Housing prices rose ~50% in a few years A LOT of ppl predicted this was another housing bubble and a crash was sure to come It never happened So why didn't we get another housing bubble? Some thoughts: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/why-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The 3 best shows on TV no one ever talks about: 1. Slow Horses 2. The Agency 3. Silo

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

So the Fed is probably gonna keep hiking rates Which won't end the war in Iran And probably won't slow down AI hyperscaler spending So consumers get hurt by higher borrowing costs but inflation won't really go lower?

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Mortgage rates hit 7.2% today Not great

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

7% mortgage rates 4% unemployment 5% bond yields 4% cash yields $100 oil $5 gas prices 3.4% inflation Basically all-time highs in the stock market Basically all-time lows in consumer sentiment Something for everyone right now Strange times

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 23/09/2026

Animal Spirits: The Wobbly House of Cards What if there is no AI crash? The chart of the year Why buy and hold is impossible 10 year return projections Why did the Fed raise rates? $30 billion for the Lakers? The best 1980s movie & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Crazy but true stat of the day: From 1800 to 1940 the annual inflation rate was just 0.2% per year Prices were just 28% higher in a 140 year time frame Since 1940 it's 3.7% annually or >2,200% in total awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

23 million US households are worth $1 million or more Yet just 1.5% of the world's population are millionaires Consider yourself lucky if you're this rich There are more rich people than ever today but it’s still a tiny fraction of the world’s population awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/mill...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Question from a reader: I don’t totally understand bonds. Is the yield on the Agg the equivalent of a near guaranteed 5.2% annual return? Some thoughts on 5% yields and why bonds are more governed by math than the stock market: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/5-bo...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

This year: Mortgage rates have gone from 6% to 7% 10 year Treasury yields: 4% to 5%. Inflation: 2.4% to 3.4%. Oil prices from less than $60/barrel in Jan to >$100/barrel And the stock market is up double digits but valuations are falling Why? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/why-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/09/2026

I get why ppl think the Fed should raise rates w/inflation being where it's at but how exactly is forcing higher borrowing costs on households going to help stop the war with Iran?

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 11/09/2026

I don’t know if anyone actually watches this show b/c it’s on Apple but S3 was surprisingly great The first 2 seasons were intriguing but just OK The payoff in S3 was totally worth it Really well done

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 10/09/2026

The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now make up ~40% of the index Every company in the top 10 has a market cap of $1 trillion or more 3 things: 1. This is a bull market phenomenon 2. Almost every other country is worse 3. The fundamentals back it up awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/its-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Homeownership rates at age 28: Baby boomers - 44% Gen X - 43% Gen Z - 38% At age 36: Baby boomers - 64% Gen X - 61% Millennials - 57% Young ppl were dealt a bad hand in housing But Gen Z will be homeowners too awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/will...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

Animal Spirits: Everywhere Millionaires The bull market in wealth The next financial crisis A buying opportunity in bonds? AI is crowding out bonds & construction spending The American Dream is still alive Is college still worth the cost? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 04/09/2026

Good question about having a mid-life crisis w/your investments It's harder to sit through stock market losses w/a bigger portfolio The next stock market crash will be a lot more painful for a new group of wealthier investors w/more $$$ at stake awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/how-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

Some questions: Would inflation be even worse if we weren’t in a housing recession? Are private markets the perfect place to hide fraud? Are colleges screwed? Is NVDA the anti-bubble? How important is the wealth effect to the economy? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/14-q...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Animal Spirits: The Next Michael Burry The AI story that's never going away Everyone wants to call the AI crash The S&P 493 bull case Why hasn't AI destroyed jobs yet? Do dividends still matter? Will Gen Z buy a house? Youth travel sports & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/09/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 31/08/2026

My most contrarian take right now is I’m not all that worried about a US government debt crisis Some thoughts on why the political risk is bigger than the financial risk when it comes to outsized govt debt in the US: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/my-m...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Animal Spirits: Are Free Markets Dead? Don't fight the bond market Why I don't think there's a govt debt crisis (it's a political crisis) The most hated asset class in the world How will this cycle end? The rising risk of private market fraud & more awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

Every hedge fund manager & macro tourist wants to short bonds right now The reasons are obvious: high government debt, large deficits, inflation, etc Bonds are the most hated asset class in the world So what's the case for owning bonds? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/the-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

How often is the stock market down from all-time highs? How often should you check your portfolio? How often do you check your portfolio? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/how-...

awealthofcommonsense.com

How Often Should You Check Your Portfolio? - A Wealth of Common Sense

Ben's rules for how often to check your portfolio.

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

The past 10 calendar year returns for the S&P 500: 2017 +22% 2018 -4% 2019 +31% 2020 +18% 2021 +28% 2022 -18% 2023 +26% 2024 +25% 2025 +18% 2026 +14% (so far) Pretty good run

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

Animal Spirits: The Best Bear Case on AI This is one of the great bull markets of all-time Every young generation struggles Gambling vs financial nihilism Why is there $3 trillion sitting in cash? The 401k has been a huge success Renting vs buying awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

2 things that are both true: 1. Housing in America is unaffordable for many people 2. Housing can become a lot more unaffordable (it already is in many other countries) awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/wher...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

Crazy but true: Since the start of 2025 the tech sector is up ~65% In that time the forward PE ratio has fallen from 29x to 22x

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

In the past week: S&P 500 all-time highs Equal weight all-time highs Small caps all-time highs Mid caps all-time highs Europe all-time highs EM close to all-time highs Valuations are falling Profit margins are rising Is this an all-time bull market? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/now-...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 17/08/2026

This is one of the best line deliveries in the history of film

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 14/08/2026

Why is the economy so resilient? 1. There are more rich ppl than ever before 2. The unemployment rate has been sub-5% for ~5 years Take out the Covid surge and it's ~9 years of <5% unemployment Rich ppl spend lots of money Ppl w/jobs spend money awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/spen...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

S&P 500 annual returns by decade: 1950s +19.5% 1960s +7.7% 1970s +5.9% 1980s +17.3% 1990s +18.0% 2000s -1.0% 2010s +13.4% 2020s +15.7%

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

Animal Spirits: Depressed Day Traders More new highs in the stock market 1987 crash calls Is AI keeping us out of a recession? Is the housing recession over? Things rich ppl & poor ppl have in common How much do gamblers & day traders lose? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/anim...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

A week before Situational Awareness almost blew-up I got this question: What’s wrong with 5x margin? If everyone earns the 1x market return what exactly is the point of investing? Why self-awareness & survival are 2 of the most important investing traits: awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/inve...

awealthofcommonsense.com

Investing is a Game of Survival - A Wealth of Common Sense

Why you shouldn't use leverage when investing, even if you're young.

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

There have now been 26 new all-time highs in 2026 for the S&P 500 There have now been more than 220 new highs in the 2020s And almost 1,400 new all-time highs since the 1950s You had to ignore a lot of scary stuff as an investor to get to those highs awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/maki...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 08/08/2026

One Wish Willow for the economy: I wish for 3% mortgage rates again Ok here’s a recession I wish for lower housing prices Ok here’s a global financial crisis I wish for lower income inequality Ok here’s 9% inflation awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/08/the-...

awealthofcommonsense.com

The One Wish Willow Economy - A Wealth of Common Sense

Obsession is one of the best movies of the decade. It’s also one of the best stories in recent film history. Writer-director Curry Barker is 26 years old. The budget for the movie was just $750k. It’s...

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

Went to the Comedy Cellar last night A young guy was sitting in the front row w/his girlfriend and one of the comics did the whole: Where are you from? What do you do? He said “I work for Nvidia” The comic said “what is that TVs?” The AI boom might have a long way to go

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 04/08/2026

Questions to ask yourself as an investor during the boom times which will end at some point (honestly): Am I diversified? Do I have a plan in place? Am I taking too much risk? Can I balance FOMO with loss aversion? awealthofcommonsense.com/2026/07/inve...

awealthofcommonsense.com

Investing in the Boom Times - A Wealth of Common Sense

Some lessons from investors in South Korea.

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Nolan is like the Steve Jobs of movies

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Rewatching Obsession for the second time I am not a horror movie guy at all But something about this movie just works It's so good Every performance is great It's an indie that feels high quality It's rare for anything to live up to the hype anymore but this movie does

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

Walked by a bunch of restaurants and bars tonight that were slammed w/ppl They were smiling, drinking, eating, spending money on $19 cocktails Do they not realize the 30 year treasury yield is now 5.3%???

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Ben Carlson @bencarlson007.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

The ppl freaking out about rising 30 year bond yields are the same ppl who were freaking out about an inverted yield curve and saying that was the end of the world Call me crazy but this looks like a normal yield curve

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