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Manuel Müller

@manuelmueller.foederalist.eu
5.2K followers 1.8K following 2.3K posts

Helsinki-based researcher of EU integration and supranational democracy | Blogger @foederalist.eu | Visiting professor @collegeofeurope.bsky.social, non-resident fellow @fiia.fi, associated researcher @iep-berlin.de | Views my own, of course

PostsRepliesMedia
Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 16/10/2026
One effect of the new Italian electoral law is that the formation of government majorities will depend on parties like "South calling North" again.
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Nicolai von Ondarza @nvondarza.bsky.social · 16/10/2026
The extra summit in November has long been planned. The most optimistic scenario for the MFF has long been a spectacular drama at the extra November summit, where everyone shows how they are fighting tooth and nail, and a late-night agreement in December.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 15/10/2026
"Juhlapuheissa Suomi haluaa panostaa Euroopan vahvistamiseen, mutta se ei ole kuitenkaan valmis maksamaan siitä. Kun kyse on rahasta, äänensävy on toinen." Elli Hiilamo yle.fi:ssä
yle.fi
Analyysi: Kun puhe kääntyy rahaan, Suomen EU-linja muuttuu
Jäsenmaiden johtajat keskustelevat tänään EU:n rahoituksesta tuleville vuosille. Suomi on leirinsä valinnut, kirjoittaa EU-kirjeenvaihtaja Elli Hiilamo.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 13/10/2026
I thank you for pointing this out!
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 13/10/2026
Still not convinced that normalising "pro-European" ECR member parties was such a great idea.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 13/10/2026
Not silly at all. You're absolutely right; they joined the ECR party last year and should thus be part of the ECR group also in the baseline scenario. I'll correct that in the next seat projection.
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Dave Keating @davekeating.substack.com · 13/10/2026
🤦‍♂️JFC they already can intervene it's called the vote in the 🇪🇺Council. No EU legislation gets passed without the national governments approving it. Our national leaders in Europe are either idiots or liars. And I don't think they're idiots.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 12/10/2026
Unfortunately, it seems to be too good to be true.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 12/10/2026
It seems that the rule-of-law reports are going the way of the European Semester's country-specific recommendations.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 10/10/2026
Then again, the derogatory use of "medieval" is also a Renaissance thing, so people who are against witch burnings and the like have always considered them medieval.
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Yossi Bartal @yossibartal.bsky.social · 09/10/2026
Die ehemalige UN-Menschenrechtskommissarin Navanethem Pillay bekommt den Friedensnobelpreis. Zur Erinnerung: Vor vier Jahren wurde die südafrikanische Juristin von der Bürgermeisterin von Berlin wegen Antisemitismus-Vorwürfen boykottiert und ein Event mit ihr in Räumen des Rathauses verboten.
zeit.de
Verleihung: Friedensmedaille an Pillay: Giffey sagt Teilnahme ab
Hier finden Sie Informationen zu dem Thema „Verleihung“. Lesen Sie jetzt „Friedensmedaille an Pillay: Giffey sagt Teilnahme ab“.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 09/10/2026
The ECR, which voted against banning the ESN party (because "free speech"), is now pushing for a ban of the European Left Alliance.
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euobserver — EU news that matters @euobserver.com · 08/10/2026
As national leaders call for massive cuts in the next EU budget, the parliament’s budget chiefs, MEP Siegfried Mureşan and Carla Tavares, warn that slashing EU cash now will undercut Europe’s competitiveness, security and social safety net for years to come.
euobserver.com
Cut the EU budget and we all lose
As national leaders call for massive cuts in the next EU budget, the parliament’s budget chiefs, MEP Siegfried Mureşan and Carla Tavares, warn that slashing EU cash now will undercut Europe’s competitiveness, security and social safety net for years to come.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 08/10/2026
Als always, there is also a shorter version at @table.media:
table.media
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 08/10/2026
Wie immer auch als Kurzversion bei @table.media:
table.media
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 08/10/2026
Die neue #EPsitzprojektion ist da! 👇
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 08/10/2026
The new #EPseatprojection is out! 👇
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 08/10/2026
Democratic backsliding is possible in "old" member states as much as in "new" ones. It makes sense to give Art. 7 more teeth – but let's do it for everyone, not only for accession countries!
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Daniel Knowles @dlknowles.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Some unintended consequences I suspect the rise of AI agents will create: 1. Restaurants that only take reservations by hand written letter, or more likely, don't take them at all. 2. Gigs where you can only buy tickets in person. 3. Businesses that operate without websites.
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Jonas Schaible @beimwort.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Und die Bild macht an diesem Abend damit auf. Man kann sich keine Illusionen mehr machen darüber, dass vielen Leuten eine Regierende Bürgermeisterin Eralp unerträglicher ist als ein Ministerpräsident Siegmund, vermutlich ein/e grüne/r Kanzler/in unerträglicher als eine eine Vizekanzlerin Weidel.
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Louis Drounau @louisdrounau.eudemocracy.eu · 01/10/2026
And exactly what good should it do to candidate countries to have a commissioner when "the members of the Commission shall neither seek nor take instructions from any Government" (TEU, Art. 17.3) and, therefore, be independent of their country? 1/2 Via @euractiv.com, @eddywax.bsky.social
And exactly what good should it do to candidate countries to have a commissioner when "the members of the Commission shall neither seek nor take instructions from any Government" (TEU, Art. 17.3) and, therefore, be independent of their country?
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Via @euractiv.com, @eddywax.bsky.social
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 06/10/2026
Yes. To be fair, it also isn't a US thing only – here in Finland, for example, the idea of being world-leading in education first and "happiness" now also hasn't done much good to the national discourse. But in the US, it's a good deal worse, of course.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 06/10/2026
Why not start by *respecting* human rights before talking about *leading* on them?
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 05/10/2026
In any case, the Spanish election will make an MFF compromise in 2026 much more difficult. Sánchez will hardly accept an agreement on the Frugals' terms during his electoral campaign. And the Frugals might be inclined to insist, hoping for a more like-minded Spanish government after the election.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 05/10/2026
To be honest, I already made a similar argument the day after the 2024 EP election. So let's see whether this finally materialises now...
foederalist.eu
Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition
Ein Blog über die Demokratie in Europa
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 05/10/2026
This is an interesting move – and one that I suggested myself in summer. The current "EPP minority government" (as @nvondarza.bsky.social & @sophia-russack.bsky.social called it) depends on S&D and RE without benefitting them in return. So it makes sense for them to demand a more formal coalition.
table.media
Opinion: The case for a formal grand coalition in the European Parliament
The political scientist argues that, in the current parliamentary term, the European Parliament’s informal pro-European centrist coalition has effectively given way to a minority government led by the Christian Democrats.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 04/10/2026
Interestingly, there will likely even be an adjusted ECR-only majority in the new Saeima. But PM Kulbergs might want to move on with his current coalition of AS/ECR + NA/ECR + JV/EPP (without ZZS, which has lost representation), which would give him a solid 59-60 seats.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 04/10/2026
The parties of the extended "von der Leyen platform" (EPP, S&D, RE + Greens) are down to ~20% in the Latvian election – not a good result for pro-Europeans. (Admittedly, AS is one of the most centrist parties in ECR. But they still have chosen to sit in the same group as parties like PiS and AUR.)
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 03/10/2026
By the way, happy German Unity to those who celebrate! It's also the 15th anniversary of my blog – so if you haven't done so yet, go follow it at @foederalist.eu 😊
bsky.app
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Europe Elects @europeelects.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
Latvia: national parliament election today: ➤ Eligible voters: 1,557,615 ➤ Polling stations open: 7:00 AM-7:00 PM CEST ➤ Incumbent government: JV (EPP), ZZS (~RE|S&D), AS (ECR), NA (ECR) with head of government and European Council member Andris Kulbergs ➤https://europeelects.eu/latvia #Latvia
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 03/10/2026
And we aren't even halfway through the Trump 2 presidency... 🙃
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 02/10/2026
Schengen has nothing to do with immigration control. And the entire point of the original post was to discuss why the UK would benefit from Schengen and Euro membership. So if you think that will never happen anyway, it's just EOD here.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 02/10/2026
Fair point - but Ireland is already a member of the Schengen Information System anyway, and the main reason it hasn't fully joined Schengen so far has been to maintain the Common Travel Area with the UK. So, if the UK were to join Schengen, Ireland would really have very few reasons not to.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 02/10/2026
I mean, the UK is not an optimal currency area anyway; and joining Schengen together with Ireland would solve many problems regarding the implementation of the GFA and also make travelling a lot easier for UK citizens. It's really not such a difficult case to make.
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Bettina Kohlrausch @bettikohlrausch.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Wenn man die Brandmauer nur als performativen Akt und nicht als intellektuelle Haltung versteht, kann sie übrigens auch nicht funktionieren.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 01/10/2026
#OTD 120 years ago, Finland adopted a new electoral law, becoming the first European country to let women vote. 20 years later, in December 1926, Miina Sillanpää became the first 🇫🇮 female (vice)minister. Since 2023, October 1st is celebrated as Miina Sillanpää Day or Day of Civic Participation.
A Finnish flag against an archipelago background on a sunny summer day – definitely not on October 1st.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 30/09/2026
For Orpo (and many others), it seems to be natural that as a net contributor country, we have to fight for a smaller EU budget, so we side with the Frugals. But maybe a stronger EU budget gives us more value for money? Maybe a more cohesive and capable EU is simply a good investment for Finland?
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 30/09/2026
Well. But also, things like this probably wouldn't happen if Finland had a more meaningful political debate about the EU beyond security policy. It's way too much of "we want more for us" and too little about real strategic priorities.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 30/09/2026
In climate policy, as in other areas, the argument "If I don't do it, someone else will" usually actually means: "If someone else doesn't do it, I will."
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 30/09/2026
This is a bit embarrassing: 🇫🇮 PM Orpo has signed the "Frugals" letter demanding across-the-board #EUbudget cuts – although he had been campaining for *more* EU agriculture spending. Now he has distanced himself from the letter, and @hs.fi is wondering whether he was even aware what he was signing.
hs.fi
HS-analyysi | Vaikuttaa siltä, että Orpo ei itse ymmärrä, millaisen kirjeen on allekirjoittanut EU:lle
Suomi on mukana ryhmässä, joka vaatii leikkauksia myös maataloustukiin, vaikka pääministeri Petteri Orpo muuta väittää, HS:n EU-kirjeenvaihtaja Jarno Hartikainen kirjoittaa.
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Heide Franck @heidefranck.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
🧵 Seitenhonorar/Einkommen: Seriös geschätzt liefert eine Literaturübersetzerin 100 saubere Normseiten im Monat ab, inkl. Recherche, zweifacher Überarbeitung etc. Beim Branchenschnitt von 19,27 € pro Seite beschert mir das 1.927 € im Monat. Aber ich bin Freiberuflerin, daher ...
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 30/09/2026
Well, Finland has a tradition of acting against its own interests when it comes to the EU budget...
hs.fi
Vieraskynä | Suomen kannattaisi ryhtyä ajamaan eurooppalaista työttömyysturvaa
Suomi torjui eurokriisin aikaan ajatuksen eurooppalaisesta työttömyysturvasta, mutta nyt se toimisi Suomen eduksi.
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Mae Nick Phra Khanong @nickjbrumfield.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
Seriously just enforce normal liability for AI on the owners and so much of this shit goes away AI companies want to be treated like the hired expert when it comes to pocketing any financial flows, but like a cursory Google Search whenever it comes to liability
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 29/09/2026
Me, a bit less than a year ago (fiia.fi/en/publicati...):
Without the necessary institutional reforms, discussions about the EU long-term budget will remain as inefficient as they are today. In the coming months and years, internal conflicts over budget size, new own resources, spending priorities, and
governance structures, as well as the occasional attempt at political blackmail by certain member states, will consume a great deal of energy from both national governments and EU institutions. It is only to be hoped that the parties involved will not lose sight of the main goal: equipping the EU with the
financial capabilities it needs to fulfil its tasks in an increasingly challenging political climate.
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 29/09/2026
Nothing says "We urgently want an agreement by the end of the year" like a public ultimatum with maximum demands that you know are unacceptable for the other side. That's how MFF negotiations work.
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Alexander Clarkson @aphclarkson.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"the issue was postponed"
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 28/09/2026
Is what we need right now really a "new Congress of Europe" bringing together the continent's "most brilliant minds" to develop a "vision" that can "inspire the next generation"? I have some doubts. 👇
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 28/09/2026
Brauchen wir gerade wirklich einen "neuen #Europa-Kongress", der die "klügsten Köpfe" des Kontinents vereinigt, um eine "Vision" zu entwickeln, die die "neue Generation" inspiriert? Ich habe da meine Zweifel. 👇
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Manuel Müller @manuelmueller.foederalist.eu · 29/09/2026
"For a long time in the economic literature, the conventional wisdom was that technological progress would have a benign impact on the labour market. [...] However, in recent years, a change of heart has taken place [...]—from blinkered optimism to a creeping pessimism." 👇
academic.oup.com
Directed technological change: a history and a critical agenda
Abstract. In this article, I explore the idea of ‘directed technological change’. Although it has its intellectual origins in early twentieth-century econo
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EU-Ylva Nilsson @euylva.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
”Axe spending or we won’t approve any new budget!” Scary threat in the US maybe. Not so much in the EU where the last budget just keeps rolling over if you don’t approve a new one www.ft.com/content/3b82...
ft.com
Germany issues EU budget ultimatum
Berlin and five other capitals tell Brussels to axe ‘hundreds of billions’ in planned spending
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