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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

So this is sinking tech stocks today?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

well. at least he didnt paint over it

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 07/10/2026

Let's be real. Is anyone surprised at anything in that article?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, well... you know..

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

$AAPL... wow. Is this new-news? I dont remember hearing about this before

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Lol. If you dont subscribe to Jessica Karl's daily wrap up, you really should.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

so... ex-US is outperforming since 12/31/24.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Hormuz supply is improving, and yet...

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Honest question. Why is this happening? Isnt the supply out of Hormuz improving??

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Wow. Russian oil tanker burning off the coast of Sochi.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

lol. no it was a good question! it was like you were reading carl's mind

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Reposted by Lou Mannheim

Oliver Darcy @oliverdarcy.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Some NEWS from within David Ellison's first Skydance company town hall: During a panel moderated by Anderson Cooper, Ellison said he supports CNN's efforts to have access restored to cover Donald Trump.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

ha! yeah. if you click on @carlquintanilla.bsky.social 's post, the next slide has some of the history.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

If you can predict the future of this chart, yours is the earth and everything that's in it...

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

I guess the FT didn't want to have to explain "EBITDA"

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

FT business book of the year finalists

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

glad someone got it! I laughed out loud

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

The good news about rates rising: the Fed has room to cut if there's a crisis. If (hypothetically, of course) we faced another pandemic, this is the shock move in $TLT from a -200bp drop in LT rates.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

yeah. orcl #1. meta #2. those would be my bets too. (meta only recently went FCF negative. but orcl has been on vapor for several quarters.)

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

ha! yeah. ... my question: where do the hyperscalers top out in capex spend

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Sure. But when someone says "pure momentum", i think of commodities or crypto or pre-earnings type companies. but the earnings growth here is real. and massive. (so far, at least)

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Kinda. Some of these mega-cap PE multiples have actually gone down since last year. The earnings estimates are growing faster than the stock.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

yeah, it's a great question. the best guess is that rising growth expectations are more than offsetting the discount rate increase. but... who knows. ... like, why is nvidia suddenly now hitting new highs? no idea.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

that's awesome. same classic characters? or new ones?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Why doesnt the stock market care about higher rates? Well, because the S&P 500 is 40% tech. And tech has been doing pretty well. Everything else is getting smoked.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Ha! fair enough. All I'm saying is that the future returns are unknown. As such, so is the level of future spending. Be well.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Well, the hyperscalers are the gatekeepers. They buy the "compute" (chips, servers, etc etc). But they need an adequate ROI on that spending. So will the AI end users pay at scale? That remains to be seen. As of now, the frontier AI companies arent even profitable. So we're not there yet.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Sure. But the hyperscalers sit at the op of the food chain. If they stop growing (or even cut!) their expansion plans, that will be a chain reaction through the whole market.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Good sign! ... My point here is just to look for changes in the fundamentals. Not where the charts line up.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

time to pull out the 2021 WFH playbook!

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

I just did a google search for "Russian plague updates". That's where we are.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Look at UCLA! That's a first. Does their school know they have a football team?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

Got my dates off slightly. Dell and Intel announced slowing revenue growth in fall 2000. Cisco growth slowed in late 2000, and they had an outright miss/guide-lower in Feb 2001. That was the real crack.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 04/10/2026

So, okay. Let's say it's the same. What were the earliest signs of the dot-com bust? The revenue guide downs at Dell and Cisco in early 2000. ... So keep your eye on the guidance.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

It's a silly debate. NYC and Cincinnati are in the same time zone. yet, their daylight hours are an hour apart. so who are we really concerned about here? whoever yells the loudest?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Wow. Really shows the importance of tech to US stocks.

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

Oh sorry, did you mean my "chart crime" comment? Well, it's because the y axis starts at 2600. So the chart is scaled to look more dramatic than the reality is. ... ie, "chart crime"

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

haha. it's a line from one of the greatest movies of all time. (as is my bsky handle.)

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 03/10/2026

I think northwestern might be good. Close game with IU last week

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

I love these quilts. Is the white box just the average?

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Lou Mannheim @loumannheim87.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

Almost as if sleeping through Oval Office meetings is bad

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