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Lorna McKellar

@lornamckellar.bsky.social
1.1K followers 316 following 50 posts

PhD researcher. Thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management. Bangor School of Ocean Sciences, CDT SuMMeR. Marine policy, ecosystem assessment, interdisciplinary research.

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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
🌊 New paper by Jonathan Heath @sosbangor.bsky.social 🦞 ⚓ Anchoring pressure on the seabed can be estimated from AIS ship tracking data Pressure can be mapped to highlight spatial hotspots Significant pressure levels revealed in a designated conservation area www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
🌊 New paper by @lornamckellar.bsky.social 🪸 Expert elicitation (IDEA protocol) gives a transparent way to set 'good status' thresholds — but we need agreement on what 'good' means for consistent use across indicators & regions. academic.oup.com/icesjms/arti...
academic.oup.com
Defining thresholds for good environmental status using structured expert elicitation
Abstract. Thresholds for good status are required under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) and the UK Marine Strategy (UKMS) to assess if go
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The #WKBENTH4 documents the underpinning data, analyses and papers. ices-library.figshare.com/articles/rep... This paper on the Bottom Trawl Impacts on Seabed Communities in European Seas has been essential for scaling up to Europe wide predictions onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
ices-library.figshare.com
Workshop to evaluate options for setting seafloor quality thresholds (WKBENTH4)
The Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) requires Member States to achieve good environmental status (GES) across their marine waters. The European Commission (EC) has requested ICES advice on the application of operational methods to support the TG Seabed proposal for quality thresholds for seafloor integrity (MSFD Descriptor 6, Criterion D6C5) in EU marine waters.The scientific findings generated by Workshop to evaluate options for setting seafloor thresholds (WKBENTH4) provide the technical basis for ICES to develop formal advice in response to the EC request, following an independent peer-review process.Worked examples were developed from an ICES data call compiling reference‑condition time series and pressure–state gradient datasets, either specifically focused on a specific pressure or of large spatial extent stratified by MSFD broad habitat type (Sections 2, 5 and 6). Six threshold methods were compared using ten criteria addressing their scientific basis, data and uncertainty, operational practicality, and management applicability (Section 7). This allowed Quality Threshold Values (QTVs) to be estimated for six indicators including biodiversity metrics (Species richness and Relative Margalef diversity), the most sensitive species fraction for the pressure of concern (Sentinals of the Seabed), and the total abundance/ biomass and sensitive species biomass based on longevity of species.Results showed (in Section 7) that QTVs varied more among indicators than among methods, indicating that indicator choice has a strong effect on threshold outcomes, more so than method selection. Integrating multiple indicators remains challenging (Section 8), however a comparative analysis of different threshold and indicator combinations for broad-habitat types (Section 7) revealed all selected QTV methods and indicators have value in establishing quality thresholds. Accordingly, it was concluded that the integration of indicators and QTV methods (Section 8) would benefit from a proposed multi‑level quality‑extent approach or framework that can utilise all available evidence most appropriate for the available data in a given region.A workflow was developed for selecting QTV methods based on data availability and threshold approach, applicable beyond the methods and indicators evaluated. These outputs support national and regional assessments of seafloor impacts, and three example implementation path-ways were presented (Section 7).WKBENTH4 concluded (Section 9) that “good condition” under the Nature Restoration Regulation (NRR) is broadly equivalent to Good Environmental Status (GES) under the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) for benthic habitat types (Group 7). The assessment and threshold-setting methods developed for MSFD Descriptor 6 provide a practical and scientifically robust basis for evaluating habitat condition, supporting restoration monitoring, and strengthening cross-policy coherence between the MSFD and NRR. Notably, at least one of the approaches enables estimation of ecological recovery times under specific conditions, providing valuable information for monitoring design and assessment of progress over time.The findings of WKBENTH4 collectively provide an operational, evidence-based pathway for setting and applying quality thresholds that can support coherent implementation of both MSFD and NRR objectives across EU marine waters.
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
The advice is underpinned by the PhD work of @lornamckellar.bsky.social, and this recent paper has been particularly important, showing how we can predict thresholds for good state based on depth and longevity of the benthic community. besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Estimating ecological thresholds for good status using natural variation in reference conditions
The framework outlined here presents a transparent, robust, scalable and pressure-independent approach to estimate the probability of an ecosystem component being in good status for a range of marine...
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 14/05/2026
Great to see the @icesmarine.bsky.social advice on how to define Good Environmental State for seabed integrity, including examples on how the implement this using our WGFBIT outputs. ices-library.figshare.com/articles/rep...
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Excited to say my 2nd phd paper has been published! We used natural variation in ecological time series to estimate thresholds --> identify relationships with environmental gradients (eg. depth) --> use threshold distributions to estimate probability of being in good status doi.org/10.1111/1365...
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
🌊🦞 Better tools for ocean health assessment! 🪱🪸 @lornamckellar.bsky.social's new paper delivers a robust, scalable & pressure-independent way to estimate the probability of good ecosystem status across marine systems. besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/... 🧪
The framework outlined here presents a transparent, robust, scalable and pressure-independent approach to estimate the probability of an ecosystem component being in good status for a range of marine systems. This straightforward and easily understood approach can be used to estimate thresholds for good status where they are missing for ecological condition assessments under legislation (e.g. Good Environmental Status under the MSFD) and make progress towards achieving international biodiversity objectives. In practical terms, this enables managers to take defensible decisions on whether action is needed to manage human activities and improve ecosystem health.
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Simon Hammann @simonhammann.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Don't be shy to take on a little two-week side project. These five months will be the most precious three years of your academic journey.
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 19/03/2026
And we're done! It has been a very productive cruise, with almost all plans completed, working with a great and expert team. Now on to analysing the data we collected, and then we'll do it all again in summer on #DY213 to see how temperature and stratification affect C release. #DY206 #SeaSTORE
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Very excited to have been given this award for my PhD work on setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management. Thank you to The Drapers, and a special thank you to Jan, my lead supervisor, who's guidance, encouragement, and support has been invaluable throughout this process.
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
David N. Thomas @dnthomas01.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Well this is good news......very good news 🎉 www.theguardian.com/world/2025/d...
theguardian.com
UK to rejoin EU’s Erasmus student exchange programme
Exclusive: British students will be able to participate in EU-wide scheme from January 2027, sources say
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Nick Graham @nickajgraham.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
Two funded PhD projects (one open to international applicants) with us at @lec-reefs.bsky.social - please pass on to potential applicants
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
I'll be giving the @jncc.bsky.social science talk today at 1pm GMT, summarising my PhD work which has been looking at setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-joi...
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 11/10/2025
Reflecting on a busy but exciting two weeks at @icesmarine.bsky.social in CPH focused on estimating quality thresholds for good status of benthic ecosystems (Seafloor Integrity). One of the best parts of my PhD is getting to collaborate and discuss ideas with others - esp. over good food
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Ocean Sciences @ Bangor University @sosbangor.bsky.social · 22/09/2025
A great day for the annual SOS beach trip with the new undergraduate students @bangoruniversity.bsky.social. Sandcastles were built, beach pictionary played, and much fun had by students new and old, and staff.
A picture of sandy beach flanked by rocky outcrops on both sides. The sun is shining, the sky is blue with a few clouds, and the sea is calm.
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Edd Hind-Ozan, Ph.D. @socialseas.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
Photographs of #FishingCommunities always speak to my heart. These are from Lithuania’s Curonian Spit. One of the highlights of #ICESASC25 getting to view these at the conference dinner. 🇱🇹🐟
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
Starting the last day of my travel back from the #ICESASC25 in Lithuania (train ferry combo). The travel was fairly cheap with interrail with the ferry was only £126 return. But it does take 3 days 🙂 @sosbangor.bsky.social @icesmarine.bsky.social
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 19/09/2025
And she was shorted-listed for the best presentation award! @sosbangor.bsky.social
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 16/09/2025
Great talk on using historical sources to map herring spawning grounds by @georginahunt.bsky.social for @projectfishistory.bsky.social.
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 18/09/2025
Really enjoyed presenting my PhD work at #icesasc25 in Klaipeda, Lithuania - even at 9am the day after the conference dinner
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Great talk by Daniel van Denderen showing that fishing had resulted in an explosion of small pelagics #icesasc2025
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 06/08/2025
'Notably, 11 out of 24 state features/criteria were not assessed in over half of the ecoregions' - my PhD work is evaluating methods for estimating thresholds for good status to address gaps in state assessments e.g., for GES under the #MSFD and #UKMS
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
MARUM @marumunibremen.bsky.social · 20/05/2025
Study on the prediction of approaching #tippingpoints Research team recommends: Warnings of approaching #climate tipping points using statistical early warning signals have to be taken with a grain of salt ➡️ www.marum.de/en/Study-on-...
marum.de
Study on prediction of approaching tipping points
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Dr Christopher F Clements @expecocons.bsky.social · 01/05/2025
New paper out from @duncanobrien.bsky.social, will be particular interesting to those of you trying to understand #stability loss in real-world ecosystems "Stability metrics behave predictably across data qualities but are sensitive to community size" www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
Stability metrics behave predictably across data qualities but are sensitive to community size
Modern biodiversity monitoring is generating increasingly multidimensional representations of wildlife populations and ecosystems. It is therefore app…
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Mara Fischer @marafischer.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
My first paper is out! 🥳🐠🐟
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 25/04/2025
‘Taking the further step of correctly portraying scientific consensus as convergent evidence rather than scientists’ opinions will further the goal of showing why vetted and validated science is a crucial ingredient of policy decisions around the world.’
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
The Conversation UK @uk.theconversation.com · 23/04/2025
Only 9% of journalists working for national and transnational media come from a working class background.
tcnv.link
New survey shows the extent of class privilege in UK journalism
Only 9% of journalists working for national and transnational media come from a working class background.
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
(Not intentionally) but on this #earthday I presented my PhD work at my first webinar series. We had a great turnout and some interesting questions around the application of methods for estimating thresholds and the use of reference conditions. Thanks to the #SMMR organiser team for having me on 🌍
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
I'll be presenting my PhD work tomorrow online at 1pm BST for the SMMR webinar series - 'setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management' - free to join www.smmr.org.uk/event/smmr-n...
smmr.org.uk
SMMR-Net Webinar "Setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystem management" - Sustainable Management of Marine Resources
Another free lunchtime Webinar, hosted by the Sustainable Management of UK Marine Resources Programme (SMMR).
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Mark Dickey-Collas 🏳️‍🌈 @dickeycollas.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
RESTORATION of marine habitats & species: just out @icesmarine.bsky.social workshop report on enhancing understanding of restoration processes, success criteria, & factors affecting recovery rates. Pleased to have contributed to this useful new resource doi.org/10.17895/ice...
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Reposted by Lorna McKellar
Lachlan Fetterplace @fiskeforbrains.bsky.social · 11/04/2025
"Mapping of Marine Protected Areas & their associated fishing activities in the Atlantic, Baltic, Nth Sea & Outermost Regions" We identified & characterised fishing activities in 800 #MPAs & assessed which activities are compatible with MPA conservation objectives 🧪🌎🦑🐠 data.europa.eu/doi/10.2926/...
data.europa.eu
Mapping of marine protected areas and their associated fishing activities (MAPAFISH) - Publications Office of the EU
The European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 sets the target for protected areas in the EU at 30% of its sea area, one third of which needs to be strictly protected. While there is growing i...
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Bob Smith @anotherbobsmith.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
I am advertising two PhD studentships (part of the six that DICE is currently advertising). PhD 1: Understanding and optimising local nature recovery networks in England. Deadline 11/05/25. www.findaphd.com/phds/project... Supervised by Bob Smith and Zoe Davies, funded by UKRI E3.
findaphd.com
Understanding and optimising local nature recovery networks in England at University of Kent on FindAPhD.com
PhD Project - Understanding and optimising local nature recovery networks in England at University of Kent, listed on FindAPhD.com
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Bob Smith @anotherbobsmith.bsky.social · 14/04/2025
PhD 2: Exploring scenarios for conservation areas to balance biodiversity and ecosystem services in the UK’s marine environment. Deadline 23/04/25. www.findaphd.com/phds/project... Supervised by Rachel Seary and Bob Smith, funded by Leverhulme.
findaphd.com
Exploring scenarios for conservation areas to balance biodiversity and ecosystem services in the UK’s marine environment at University of Kent on FindAPhD.com
PhD Project - Exploring scenarios for conservation areas to balance biodiversity and ecosystem services in the UK’s marine environment at University of Kent, listed on FindAPhD.com
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 31/03/2025
esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... interesting paper on identifying 'tipping point' / non-linear pressure-state thresholds: "detectability was found to depend on both the shape of the threshold relationship and the statistical definition of the threshold location"
esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Evaluating the robustness of generalized additive models as a tool for threshold detection in variable environments
As global climate change and anthropogenic activities amplify widespread environmental variability, there is a strong need for management strategies that incorporate relationships between ecosystem c...
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Giulia Ghedini @giuliaghedini.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
Very exciting news! In Sept 2025, I will move my lab to the School of Biological Sciences @monashbiol.bsky.social at #Monash University in Melbourne! I am recruiting #PhD students to work on #ecological & #evolutionary dynamics of #phytoplankton #communities – find out more here giuliaghedini.com
giuliaghedini.com
FUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY GROUP
Exciting lab news! In September 2025, the lab will move to the School of Biological Sciences at Monash University  in Melbourne, Australia. We will keep a presence at the Gulbenkian Institute for...
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Science Magazine @science.org · 24/03/2025
Can you explain your doctoral research through interpretive dance? The deadline for submissions to the 17th annual #DanceYourPhD competition is this week. Submit by 28 March for a chance to win $2000: scim.ag/4gKMnz9
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
Links to join and listen in to day 1 - AM: www.fao.org/webcast/home... PM: www.fao.org/webcast/home...
fao.org
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - Webcast
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
I'm giving a talk this afternoon about defining significant adverse impacts, including work by @lornamckellar.bsky.social
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 11/03/2025
At @fao.org this week to talk about fisheries management in the high seas. eafm-symposium.nafo.int
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Dr Angel Borja @drangelborja.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
#MarineEcology
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Thorsten Reusch @thorstenreusch.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
Looking for a PhD position, and interested in in 2nd generation restoration considering genetic factors in seagrasses (aka assisted evolution)? - still 10 days left to apply!
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
We found that for small or noisy datasets, range of natural variation is most suitable to estimate ecologically meaningful, reliable, and transparent thresholds for good status, while for larger datasets with low noise levels, all four methods are likely to be useful.
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
The first paper of @lornamckellar.bsky.social is out! She tested the statistical robustness of four methods to set thresholds for ‘good’ ecosystem status. academic.oup.com/icesjms/arti...
academic.oup.com
Evaluating methods for setting thresholds for good status in marine ecosystems
Abstract. Estimating thresholds to distinguish between good and degraded ecosystem states is key for assessing and managing marine environments. Numerous m
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
🚨 New research 🚨 (and the first paper from my PhD) How do we define good vs. degraded marine ecosystems? Our study evaluated four methods for setting ecological thresholds—and not all are equally reliable. 🌊🧵 (1/4)
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Dr Abigail McQuatters-Gollop @amcquatters-gollop.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
And our #plankton paper got picked up by the New York Times! www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... www.nytimes.com/2025/03/03/c...
nytimes.com
Rising Temperatures Are Scrambling the Base of the Ocean Food Web
Scientists are gaining new insights into how plankton supports life on Earth — just as climate change is changing everything.
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Bridget Sparrow @deepseasparrow.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
Excited to announce I will be co-chairing a conference session at 11th ESP World Conference in Darwin. Submit your abstract by March 15th for our session ‘Navigating tomorrow’s seas through integrative ecosystem service assessments and decision support tools’ here: espconference.org/esp11/author 🧪🦑
espconference.org
https://espconference.org/esp11/author
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Lorna McKellar @lornamckellar.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
Exciting to see some of my PhD work on setting thresholds for good status being presented at the EAFM symposium #FAO #ABNJ
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
I'm then continuing next week to @fao.org in Rome for a conference on Applying the Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries Management in ABNJ, where I will be talking about thresholds for avoiding significant adverse impacts, including work by @lornamckellar.bsky.social eafm-symposium.nafo.int
eafm-symposium.nafo.int
Home
Applying the ecosystem approach to fisheries management symposium
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Jan Geert Hiddink @jangeerthiddink.bsky.social · 03/03/2025
On the way to @icesmarine.bsky.social to co-chair WKREST, on marine nature restoration
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Martin Enserink @martinenserink.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
Give a group of scientists the same data and the same research question, and they should come up with similar answers—in theory. But they don’t. www.science.org/content/arti... (by @cathleenogrady.bsky.social)
science.org
Even faced with the same data, ecologists sometimes come to opposite conclusions
Study highlights powerful role subjective choices can play in research, though some critics urge caution about applying findings too broadly
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