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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Big shoutout to @sanhochung.bsky.social, a new political science professor at 成大 and true expert on Taiwan’s local politics. He’s one of the few who can speak with empirical data on topics such as local corruption and voting behavior. Journalists please quote him and academics cite him!

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Whether the DPP sweeps Taipei and New Taipei, or the KMT keeps its northern stronghold, the outcome of the local elections is not a reflection of Taiwanese attitudes toward China, Lai, Trump, or war. My latest with @brianhioe.bsky.social in The Diplomat: thediplomat.com/2026/10/taiw...

thediplomat.com

Taiwan’s Local Elections Are Not About China, President Lai, or the United States

Candidates across Taiwan are campaigning on local issues that vary by city – not topics like cross-strait relations. What can we learn from these elections?

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Reposted by Lev Nachman

Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

Taiwan's local elections are not about China, Lai, the US, Trump, or war. Whatever the outcome, do not read the results as a national referendum. But, these races do matter for Taiwan's future. Here's why: My latest with @brianhioe.bsky.social for The Diplomat: thediplomat.com/2026/10/taiw...

thediplomat.com

Taiwan’s Local Elections Are Not About China, President Lai, or the United States

Candidates across Taiwan are campaigning on local issues that vary by city – not topics like cross-strait relations. What can we learn from these elections?

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

thediplomat.com

Taiwan’s Local Elections Are Not About China, President Lai, or the United States

Candidates across Taiwan are campaigning on local issues that vary by city – not topics like cross-strait relations. What can we learn from these elections?

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

I have officially been promoted with tenure to Associate Professor! I started my Ph.D. exactly 10 years ago, and am very proud to have made it this far. I share this achievement with all the mentors, teachers, and friends who helped me get here. Much love to you all 💚

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Also I should have said “almost” a year not “over” a year. Whoops!

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 20/08/2026

Was just on BBC live talking about Taiwans national budget and drone manufacturing. Here’s a clip!

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

I was just live on @cnn.com talking about Taiwan’s military drills and my survey results published at @brookings.edu on declining Taiwanese perceptions of America as a trustworthy ally. Here’s a clip!

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Jeff/傑夫 @jayfutw.bsky.social · 26/07/2026

Contested Taiwan Sovereignty, Social Movements, and Party Formation by @lnachman32.bsky.social is excellent.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

This is a topic my colleagues and I have long followed. We have survey data from back in 2019-2020 about how Taiwanese feel about Hong Kong, the protests, and what should be done to help: foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/05/t...

foreignpolicy.com

Taiwanese Are Sympathetic but Uncertain About Hong Kong Refugees

Widespread support for protesters may not translate into policy.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

foreignpolicy.com

Taiwanese Are Sympathetic but Uncertain About Hong Kong Refugees

Widespread support for protesters may not translate into policy.

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Reposted by Lev Nachman

Foreign Policy @foreignpolicy.com · 08/07/2026

Many in Taiwan perceive a conflict with China as not simply involving the United States, but also Japan, new polling suggests.

foreignpolicy.com

Taiwan Believes Japan Will Help Defend Against China

Opinion polling shows that trust in Tokyo is surprisingly deep.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

The Taiwanese government gave everyone the day off for my birthday it has nothing to do with the giant typhoon heading for us this is what I asked for you’re all welcome PS. Please be safe!! 今天放假不是因為颱風，是因為我生日，跟那個快來的超大颱風完全無關，這是我要的禮物，不客氣！PS. 大家注意安全喔！

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Reposted by Lev Nachman

Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

I'm happy to share my newest op-ed "Taiwan Believes Japan Will Help Defend Against China: Opinion polling shows that trust in Tokyo is surprisingly deep" with @poscwty1.bsky.social for @foreignpolicy.com! This is a gift link, so there is no paywall! 🧵 foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/07/c...

foreignpolicy.com

Taiwan Believes Japan Will Help Defend Against China

Opinion polling shows that trust in Tokyo is surprisingly deep.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Flagging this for Japan watchers who I think would find this interesting (apologies for the mass tag!) @tobiasharris.bsky.social @unseenjapan.com @noahoskow.bsky.social @suika.bsky.social @tokyovice.bsky.social

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

We believe our study is one of the first to actually test Taiwanese perceptions of Japan. We hope this question is further studied beyond just descriptive statistics, as there is clearly something about Japan that registers differently in Taiwan across party lines.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Although Taiwanese citizens see very positive perceptions of Japan's willingness to stand with Taiwan, elite politics may be different. As @asia.nikkei.com brilliantly reports, Taiwan-Japan relations on an elite level may be less positive than the public perceives: asia.nikkei.com/politics/int...

asia.nikkei.com

Media exposure of Taiwan premier's baseball trip stirs Tokyo-Taipei tiff

Japan officials irked by publicity around supposedly low-key visit: sources

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Importantly, we see a correlation between those who believe the US will come to Taiwan's aid and those who believe Japan will come to Taiwan's aid.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Things get interesting when we ask about the likelihood of Japan coming to aid Taiwan in the event of a conflict. Here we see a somwhat more familiar patern of partisan breakdown, but it is not nearly as polarizing as you might think! KMT&TPP are largely split on the question!

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Although KMT voters have slightly more negative views towards Takaichi, they are again far more neutral on her than we expected given her sharp stance towards the PRC.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

Naturally, we break this question down by party ID (as all public opinion analysis should 👀) To our surprise, positive perceptions are far higher across party lines than you would expect! Even KMT voters do not hold nearly as negative views towards Japan as we expected.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

We want to know if Taiwanese agree with the ever-popular idea of “台灣有事就是日本有事.” We first establish just how popular Japan is compared to the US and China, which should be unsurprising for those based in Taiwan:

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/07/2026

foreignpolicy.com

Taiwan Believes Japan Will Help Defend Against China

Opinion polling shows that trust in Tokyo is surprisingly deep.

13816

Reposted by Lev Nachman

Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

I am proud to share my latest peer-reviewed work with Nathan Kar Ming Chan and John Mok, "Desperate Acts of Democracy: Identity Threat, Autocratization and Voter Turnout in Hong Kong" out now at @chinaquarterly.bsky.social. This piece is very special to us, and likely our last survey study in HK🧵

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

This project started as a side-project between Nathan, John, and me while we were 2nd year PhD students at UC Irvine. We never thought it would become one of the most meaningful pieces of research we would produce. It took a lot to get published, and we hope you find it valuable.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Our paper is special because it can never be replicated. We captured lightning in a bottle by conducting surveys before and during a time of autocratic transition. It is no longer safe (or legal) to conduct surveys that ask these kinds of questions in Hong Kong.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Despite autocratization, Hong Kongers pursued a 'desperate act of democracy.'

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Our paper helps explain the record high turnout of HK's 2019 local elections. It was not just a typical instance of voting; it was an electoral moment that allowed Hong Kongers to collectively express their identity, support democracy and resist the PRC’s enforced assimilation.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Our results suggest a paradox where citizens’ propensity to vote increases when faced with perceived shrinking opportunities to participate in elections during times of authoritarian transition.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Before 2019, priming respondents with identity threat did not increase their propensity to vote. After the 2019 protests and autocratic turn in Hong Kong, priming identity threat *did* increase propensity to vote. It even increased all the way up until the National Security Law.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

This is a study of political participation, specifically Hong Kongers' propensity to vote. We conducted three waves of survey experiments: before the 2019 anti-extradition protests, during the protests, and finally the week before the National Security Law came into effect.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

How does identity threat affects mass political participation during times of autocratization? We argue threats to Hong Konger identity mobilized voter participation, especially as autocratization progressed. HKers resisted during this period through their intention to vote.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 01/07/2026

I’m officially a permanent resident of Taiwan 🇹🇼 🥹🌸 I was awarded a Plum Blossom Card (梅花卡) designated for “those who have made a special contribution to Taiwan,” that beyond PR, will allow me to apply for dual citizenship after a number of years! 感謝台灣，我永遠的家🫶

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

I just think it’s cool they get to compete as Curaçao and not Dutch Willemstad. (This is a Chinese Taipei joke)

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Finally, here is a thread with figures and key arguments included: bsky.app/profile/lnac...

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

In our final piece for our @brookings.edu series, we look at some of the most pressing issues the foreign policy community wants to know about Taiwanese voters: support for defense spending, America, Trump, and the war in Iran. www.brookings.edu/articles/how...

brookings.edu

How partisan is Taiwan’s security debate? | Brookings

Lev Nachman and Wei-Ting Yen delve into two of the most divisive issues in Taiwan: the special defense budget and perceptions of the U.S.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Here is a full thread breaking down our key findings: bsky.app/profile/lnac...

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

Here is a full breakdown of the article with figures included: bsky.app/profile/lnac...

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

🧵Last month @poscwty1.bsky.social & I published a three-part series for @brookings.edu featuring the most current updates to Taiwanese public opinion available. In our first piece, we asked what Taiwan thought of Cheng Li-wun's trip to China & meeting with Xi Jinping:

brookings.edu

How do Taiwanese feel about the Cheng-Xi meeting? | Brookings

Lev Nachman and Wei-Ting Yen present original survey data evaluating how Taiwanese voters saw the Cheng-Xi meeting.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

KMT Party Chair Cheng Li-wun casually dropping the anti-semitic trope of Jewish control of the United States government during her speech in the US: "如果猶太朋友可以對美國有怎麼關鍵的影響力, 我們華人的智慧,華人的努力,華人的平德, 絕對不輸給他們."

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

What do Taiwanese voters think of Trump? Does Taiwan see America as a trusworthy ally? Would voters support more defense spending? Have attitudes changed over time? All of this and more with @poscwty1.bsky.social in our final piece for @brookings.edu 3 part series:

brookings.edu

How partisan is Taiwan’s security debate? | Brookings

Lev Nachman and Wei-Ting Yen delve into two of the most divisive issues in Taiwan: the special defense budget and perceptions of the U.S.

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Lev Nachman @lnachman32.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

We have three key findings to keep in mind going forward as Taiwan gets closer to this year's local elections and the 2028 national elections: 1. The KMT base is not as united as the DPP base 2. Independnet voters matter most 3. TPP voters increasingly resemble KMT voters

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